Thunderstorm Related Asthma - the Epidemic of 24/25 June 1994

Background A large epidemic of asthma occurred following a thunderstorm in southern and central England on 24/25 June 1994. A collaborative study group was formed. Objectives To describe the epidemic and the meteorological, aerobiological and other environmental characteristics associated with it. Methods Collation of data from the Meteorological Office, the Pollen Research Unit, the Department of the Environment's Automatic Urban Network, from health surveillance by the Department of Health and the National Poisons Unit, from clinical experience in general practice and hospitals, and from an immunological study of some of the affected cases from north east London. Results The thunderstorm was a Mesoscale Convective System, an unusual and large form of storm with several centres and severe wind gusts. It occurred shortly after the peak grass pollen concentration in the London area. A sudden and extensive epidemic occurred within about an hour affecting possibly several thousand patients. Emergency services were stretched but the epidemic did not last long. Cases had high serum levels of IgE antibody to mixed grass pollen. Conclusion This study supports the view that patients with specific IgE to grass pollen are at risk of thunderstorm-related asthma. The details of the causal pathway from storm to asthma attack are not clear. Case-control and time series studies are being carried out.

Quantifying Submerged Fluvial Topography Using Hyperspatial Resolution UAS Imagery and Structure From Motion Photogrammetry.

Quantifying the topography of rivers and their associated bedforms has been a fundamental concern of fluvial geomorphology for decades. Such data, acquired at high temporal and spatial resolutions, are increasingly in demand for process-oriented investigations of flow hydraulics, sediment dynamics and in-stream habitat. In these riverine environments, the most challenging region for topographic measurement is the wetted, submerged channel. Generally, dry bed topography and submerged bathymetry are measured using different methods and technology. This adds to the costs, logistical challenges and data processing requirements of comprehensive river surveys. However, some technologies are capable of measuring the submerged topography. Through-water photogrammetry and bathymetric LiDAR are capable of reasonably accurate measurements of channel beds in clear water. Whilst the cost of bathymetric LiDAR remains high and its resolution relatively coarse, the recent developments in photogrammetry using Structure from Motion (SfM) algorithms promise a fundamental shift in the accessibility of topographic data for a wide range of settings. Here we present results demonstrating the potential of so called SfM-photogrammetry for quantifying both exposed and submerged fluvial topography at the mesohabitat scale. We show that imagery acquired from a rotary-winged Unmanned Aerial System (UAS) can be processed in order to produce digital elevation models (DEMs) with hyperspatial resolutions (c. 0.02 m) for two different river systems over channel lengths of 50-100 m. Errors in submerged areas range from 0.016 m to 0.089 m, which can be reduced to between 0.008 m and 0.053 m with the application of a simple refraction correction. This work therefore demonstrates the potential of UAS platforms and SfM-photogrammetry as a single technique for surveying fluvial topography at the mesoscale (defined as lengths of channel from c.10 m to a few hundred metres). This article is protected by copyright. All rights reserved.

Contributo da geoquímica e da sedimentologia na caracterização de influências antropogénicas em ambientes estuarinos

Tese de doutoramento, Geologia (Geoquímica), Universidade de Lisboa, Faculdade de Ciências, 2016

Wind resource mapping using landscape roughness and spatial interpolation methods

Energy saving, reduction of greenhouse gasses and increased use of renewables are key policies to achieve the European 2020 targets. In particular, distributed renewable energy sources, integrated with spatial planning, require novel methods to optimise supply and demand. In contrast with large scale wind turbines, small and medium wind turbines (SMWTs) have a less extensive impact on the use of space and the power system, nevertheless, a significant spatial footprint is still present and the need for good spatial planning is a necessity. To optimise the location of SMWTs, detailed knowledge of the spatial distribution of the average wind speed is essential, hence, in this article, wind measurements and roughness maps were used to create a reliable annual mean wind speed map of Flanders at 10 m above the Earth’s surface. Via roughness transformation, the surface wind speed measurements were converted into meso- and macroscale wind data. The data were further processed by using seven different spatial interpolation methods in order to develop regional wind resource maps. Based on statistical analysis, it was found that the transformation into mesoscale wind, in combination with Simple Kriging, was the most adequate method to create reliable maps for decision-making on optimal production sites for SMWTs in Flanders.

Climatology of the Iberia coastal low-level wind jet: weather research forecasting model high-resolution results

Coastal low-level jets (CLLJ) are a low-tropospheric wind feature driven by the pressure gradient produced by a sharp contrast between high temperatures over land and lower temperatures over the sea. This contrast between the cold ocean and the warm land in the summer is intensified by the impact of the coastal parallel winds on the ocean generating upwelling currents, sharpening the temperature gradient close to the coast and giving rise to strong baroclinic structures at the coast. During summertime, the Iberian Peninsula is often under the effect of the Azores High and of a thermal low pressure system inland, leading to a seasonal wind, in the west coast, called the Nortada (northerly wind). This study presents a regional climatology of the CLLJ off the west coast of the Iberian Peninsula, based on a 9km resolution downscaling dataset, produced using the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) mesoscale model, forced by 19 years of ERA-Interim reanalysis (1989-2007). The simulation results show that the jet hourly frequency of occurrence in the summer is above 30% and decreases to about 10% during spring and autumn. The monthly frequencies of occurrence can reach higher values, around 40% in summer months, and reveal large inter-annual variability in all three seasons. In the summer, at a daily base, the CLLJ is present in almost 70% of the days. The CLLJ wind direction is mostly from north-northeasterly and occurs more persistently in three areas where the interaction of the jet flow with local capes and headlands is more pronounced. The coastal jets in this area occur at heights between 300 and 400 m, and its speed has a mean around 15 m/s, reaching maximum speeds of 25 m/s.

Wind resource modelling in complex terrain using different mesoscale–microscale coupling techniques

Wind resource evaluation in two sites located in Portugal was performed using the mesoscale modelling system Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) and the wind resource analysis tool commonly used within the wind power industry, the Wind Atlas Analysis and Application Program (WAsP) microscale model. Wind measurement campaigns were conducted in the selected sites, allowing for a comparison between in situ measurements and simulated wind, in terms of flow characteristics and energy yields estimates. Three different methodologies were tested, aiming to provide an overview of the benefits and limitations of these methodologies for wind resource estimation. In the first methodology the mesoscale model acts like “virtual” wind measuring stations, where wind data was computed by WRF for both sites and inserted directly as input in WAsP. In the second approach, the same procedure was followed but here the terrain influences induced by the mesoscale model low resolution terrain data were removed from the simulated wind data. In the third methodology, the simulated wind data is extracted at the top of the planetary boundary layer height for both sites, aiming to assess if the use of geostrophic winds (which, by definition, are not influenced by the local terrain) can bring any improvement in the models performance. The obtained results for the abovementioned methodologies were compared with those resulting from in situ measurements, in terms of mean wind speed, Weibull probability density function parameters and production estimates, considering the installation of one wind turbine in each site. Results showed that the second tested approach is the one that produces values closest to the measured ones, and fairly acceptable deviations were found using this coupling technique in terms of estimated annual production. However, mesoscale output should not be used directly in wind farm sitting projects, mainly due to the mesoscale model terrain data poor resolution. Instead, the use of mesoscale output in microscale models should be seen as a valid alternative to in situ data mainly for preliminary wind resource assessments, although the application of mesoscale and microscale coupling in areas with complex topography should be done with extreme caution.

Distribución a mesoescala de comunidades bentónicas y clorofila-a en sedimentos superficiales de áreas potenciales para reconstrucción paleoceanográfica. Otoño 2003.

Se analizó la distribución espacial de la clorofila-a y otras propiedades de los sedimentos superficiales, así como del macrobentos (>0,5 mm) durante la Primera Etapa del Crucero de Evaluación de Recursos Demersales y Paleoceanografía BIC Olaya 0305-06, del 20 al 25 de mayo 2003. La materia orgánica “fresca” de origen fitoplanctónico se distribuyó de forma heterogénea en ambas áreas, alcanzando concentraciones muy elevadas sobre la plataforma exterior y talud superior, hasta el momento, las más altas determinadas para el margen continental peruano. Se encontró una asociación positiva entre contenido de materia orgánica “fresca” superficial y presencia de sedimentos laminados o bandeados en ambas áreas. En general, el área frente a Callao presentó un mayor enriquecimiento orgánico, menores biomasas de macrofauna y Thioploca spp. y mayor abundancia de nemátodes que el área de Pisco. Se discuten posibles mecanismos que expliquen la retención, distribución y acumulación de materia orgánica en los sedimentos superficiales de ambas áreas. La distribución batimétrica de la macrofauna sugiere un debilitamiento de las condiciones hipóxicas frente a Pisco, a partir de los 400 m.

Évaluation de la modélisation et des prévisions de la vitesse du vent menant à l'estimation de la production d'énergie annuelle d'une turbine éolienne

Suite à un stage avec la compagnie Hatch, nous possédons des jeux de données composés de séries chronologiques de vitesses de vent mesurées à divers sites dans le monde, sur plusieurs années. Les ingénieurs éoliens de la compagnie Hatch utilisent ces jeux de données conjointement aux banques de données d’Environnement Canada pour évaluer le potentiel éolien afin de savoir s’il vaut la peine d’installer des éoliennes à ces endroits. Depuis quelques années, des compagnies offrent des simulations méso-échelle de vitesses de vent, basées sur divers indices environnementaux de l’endroit à évaluer. Les ingénieurs éoliens veulent savoir s’il vaut la peine de payer pour ces données simulées, donc si celles-ci peuvent être utiles lors de l’estimation de la production d’énergie éolienne et si elles pourraient être utilisées lors de la prévision de la vitesse du vent long terme. De plus, comme l’on possède des données mesurées de vitesses de vent, l’on en profitera pour tester à partir de diverses méthodes statistiques différentes étapes de l’estimation de la production d’énergie. L’on verra les méthodes d’extrapolation de la vitesse du vent à la hauteur d’une turbine éolienne et l’on évaluera ces méthodes à l’aide de l’erreur quadratique moyenne. Aussi, on étudiera la modélisation de la vitesse du vent par la distributionWeibull et la variation de la distribution de la vitesse dans le temps. Finalement, l’on verra à partir de la validation croisée et du bootstrap si l’utilisation de données méso-échelle est préférable à celle de données des stations de référence, en plus de tester un modèle où les deux types de données sont utilisées pour prédire la vitesse du vent. Nous testerons la méthodologie globale présentement utilisée par les ingénieurs éoliens pour l’estimation de la production d’énergie d’un point de vue statistique, puis tenterons de proposer des changements à cette méthodologie, qui pourraient améliorer l’estimation de la production d’énergie annuelle.

Dynamic and Thermodynamic Structure of the Monsoon Boundary Layer over India

The objective of the study is to examine the dynamic and thermodynamic structure and the variations that occur in the surface layer during the pre-monsoon, onset and post-monsoon periods over the Indian region. The variations caused during the occurrence of micro and mesoscale systems, structure and variation in the marine boundary layer over the Indian region is also investigated. The drag coefficient computed indirectly also shows variation during various seasons. The thermodynamic structure of the atmosphere shows variation during the various seasons. The onset monsoon causes lowering of the Lifting Condensation Levels. The outcome of the study is expected to provide a better understanding of the structure and variations in the boundary layer over India, which is useful for many applications especially for numerical modeling studies.

Low Level Jet stream of Asian Summer Monsoon and its Variability

The main objective of the of present study are to study the intraseasonal variability of LLJ and its relation with convective heating of the atmosphere, to establish whether LLJ splits into two branches over the Arabian sea as widely believed, the role of horizonatal wind shear of LLJ in the episodes of intense rainfall events observed over the west coast of India, to perform atmospheric modeling work to test whether small (meso) scale vortices form during intense rainfall events along the west coast; and to study the relation between LLJ and monsoon depression genesis. The results of a study on the evolution of Low Level Jetstream (LLJ) prior to the formation of monsoon depressions are presented. A synoptic model of the temporal evolution of monsoon depression has been produced. There is a systematic temporal evolution of the field of deep convection strength and position of the LLJ axis leading to the genesis of monsoon depression. One of the significant outcomes of the present thesis is that the LLJ plays an important role in the intraseasonal and the interannual variability of Indian monsoon activity. Convection and rainfall are dependent mainly on the cyclonic vorticity in the boundary layer associated with LLJ. Monsoon depression genesis and the episodes of very heavy rainfall along the west coast of India are closely related to the cyclonic shear of the LLJ in the boundary layer and the associated deep convection. Case studies by a mesoscale numerical model (MM5) have shown that the heavy rainfall episodes along the west coast of India are associated with generation of mesoscale cyclonic vortices in the boundary layer.

Coastal Upwelling of the South Eastern Arabian Sea - An Integrated Approach

Upwelling regions occupies only a small portion of the global ocean surface. However it accounts for a large fraction of the oceanic primary production as well as fishery. Therefore understanding and quantifying the upwelling is of great importance for the marine resources management. Most of the coastal upwelling zones in the Arabian Sea are wind driven uniform systems. Mesoscale studies along the southwest coast of India have shown high spatial and temporal variability in the forcing mechanism and intensity of upwelling. There exists an equatorward component of wind stress as similar to the most upwelling zones along the eastern oceanic boundaries. Therefore an offshore component of surface Ekman transport is expected throughout the year. But several studies supported with in situ evidences have revealed that the process is purely recurring on seasonal basis. The explanation merely based on local wind forcing alone is not sufficient to support the observations. So, it is assumed that upwelling along the South Eastern Arabian Sea is an effect of basin wide wind forcing rather than local wind forcing. In the present study an integrated approach has been made to understand the process of upwelling of the South Eastern Arabian Sea. The latitudinal and seasonal variations (based on Sea Surface Temperature, wind forcing, Chlorophyll a and primary production), forcing mechanisms (local wind and remote forcing) and the factors influencing the system (Arabian Sea High Saline Water, Bay of Bengal water, runoff, coastal geomorphology) are addressed herewith.

Dynamics and Thermodynamics of the Arabian Sea Warm Pool

The present study examines the importance of low saline waters and resulting barrier layer in the dynamics of the ASWP using observational data.The oceanic general circulation models (OGCM) are very useful for exploring the processes responsible for the ASWP and their variability. The circulation and thermohaline structure stimulated by an OGCM changes a lot when the resolution is increased from mesoscale to macro scale. For a reasonable simulation of the ASWP, we must include the mesoscale turbulence in numerical models. Especially the SEAS is an eddy prominent region with a horizontal dimension of 100 to 500 km and vertical extent of hundred meters. These eddies may have an important role on the evolution of ASWP, which has not been explored so far.Most of the earlier studies in the SEAS showed that the heat buildup in the mixed layer during the pre-monsoon (March-May) is primarily driven by the surface heat flux through the ocean-atmosphere interface, while the 3-dimensional heat budget of the ML physical processes that are responsible for the formation of the ASWP are unknown. With this background the present thesis also examines the relative importance of mixed layer processes that lead to the formation of warm pool in the SEAS.

Ecology of Chaetognaths in the Indian EEZ

This thesis entitled ecology of chaetognaths in the indian EEZ.The present study, in general, deals with the distribution pattern of mesozooplankton biomass and abundance with special reference to the detailed ecology of the important carnivorous planktonic group, the chaetognath, in the two major ocean basins of the Indian EEZ, the Arabian Sea (AS) and the Bay of Bengal (BoB). Prior to the International Indian Ocean expedition (IIOE, 1960 – 1965), cmprehensive studies on chaetognath in the Indian waters were very limited and was confined mostly to some coastal and oceanic regions. The study revealed a profound influence of different physical process on the abundance of chaetognath community. The significant influence exerted by different physico-chemical factors on the vertical distribution of chaetognath species was also evident. Prior to this study, only very little information was available on the ecology and distribution pattern chaetognaths in both the Arabian sea and the Bay of Bengal in relation to various mesoscale processes and physicochemical .variables. This study, emphasizing the short term and long term influences of different meso-scale and basin scale physical events on the ecology of this important plankton group provides the baseline data for extensive ecological research on any major mesozooplankton group in this tropical low latitude region.

The diagnosis of severe thunderstorms with high-resolution WRF model

Thunderstorm, resulting from vigorous convective activity, is one of the most spectacular weather phenomena in the atmosphere. A common feature of the weather during the pre-monsoon season over the Indo-Gangetic Plain and northeast India is the outburst of severe local convective storms, commonly known as ‘Nor’westers’(as they move from northwest to southeast). The severe thunderstorms associated with thunder, squall lines, lightning and hail cause extensive losses in agricultural, damage to structure and also loss of life. In this paper, sensitivity experiments have been conducted with the Non-hydrostatic Mesoscale Model (NMM) to test the impact of three microphysical schemes in capturing the severe thunderstorm event occurred over Kolkata on 15 May 2009. The results show that the WRF-NMM model with Ferrier microphysical scheme appears to reproduce the cloud and precipitation processes more realistically than other schemes. Also, we have made an attempt to diagnose four severe thunderstorms that occurred during pre-monsoon seasons of 2006, 2007 and 2008 through the simulated radar reflectivity fields from NMM model with Ferrier microphysics scheme and validated the model results with Kolkata Doppler Weather Radar (DWR) observations. Composite radar reflectivity simulated by WRF-NMM model clearly shows the severe thunderstorm movement as observed by DWR imageries, but failed to capture the intensity as in observations. The results of these analyses demonstrated the capability of high resolution WRF-NMM model in the simulation of severe thunderstorm events and determined that the 3 km model improve upon current abilities when it comes to simulating severe thunderstorms over east Indian region

Numerical simulation of baroclinic waves with a parameterized boundary layer

A dry three-dimensional baroclinic life cycle model is used to investigate the role of turbulent fluxes of heat and momentum within the boundary layer on mid-latitude cyclones. Simulations are performed of life cycles for two basic states, both with and without turbulent fluxes. The different basic states produce cyclones with contrasting frontal and mesoscale-flow structures. The analysis focuses on the generation of potential-vorticity (PV) in the boundary layer and its subsequent transport into the free troposphere. The dynamic mechanism through which friction mitigates a barotropic vortex is that of Ekman pumping. This has often been assumed to be also the dominant mechanism for baroclinic developments. The PV framework highlights an additional, baroclinic mechanism. Positive PV is generated baroclinically due to friction to the north-east of a surface low and is transported out of the boundary layer by a cyclonic conveyor belt flow. The result is an anomaly of increased static stability in the lower troposphere which restricts the growth of the baroclinic wave. The reduced coupling between lower and upper levels can be sufficient to change the character of the upper-level evolution of the mature wave. The basic features of the baroclinic damping mechanism are robust for different frontal structures, with and without turbulent heat fluxes, and for the range of surface roughness found over the oceans.