LiDAR mapping of tidal marshes for ecogeomorphological modelling in the TIDE project

The European research project TIDE (Tidal Inlets Dynamics and Environment) is developing and validating coupled models describing the morphological, biological and ecological evolution of tidal environments. The interactions between the physical and biological processes occurring in these regions requires that the system be studied as a whole rather than as separate parts. Extensive use of remote sensing including LiDAR is being made to provide validation data for the modelling. This paper describes the different uses of LiDAR within the project and their relevance to the TIDE science objectives. LiDAR data have been acquired from three different environments, the Venice Lagoon in Italy, Morecambe Bay in England, and the Eden estuary in Scotland. LiDAR accuracy at each site has been evaluated using ground reference data acquired with differential GPS. A semi-automatic technique has been developed to extract tidal channel networks from LiDAR data either used alone or fused with aerial photography. While the resulting networks may require some correction, the procedure does allow network extraction over large areas using objective criteria and reduces fieldwork requirements. The networks extracted may subsequently be used in geomorphological analyses, for example to describe the drainage patterns induced by networks and to examine the rate of change of networks. Estimation of the heights of the low and sparse vegetation on marshes is being investigated by analysis of the statistical distribution of the measured LiDAR heights. Species having different mean heights may be separated using the first-order moments of the height distribution.

Modelling habitat selection and distribution of the critically endangered Jerdon's courser Rhinoptilus bitorquatus in scrub jungle: an application of a new tracking method

1. Jerdon's courser Rhinoptilus bitorquatus is a nocturnally active cursorial bird that is only known to occur in a small area of scrub jungle in Andhra Pradesh, India, and is listed as critically endangered by the IUCN. Information on its habitat requirements is needed urgently to underpin conservation measures. We quantified the habitat features that correlated with the use of different areas of scrub jungle by Jerdon's coursers, and developed a model to map potentially suitable habitat over large areas from satellite imagery and facilitate the design of surveys of Jerdon's courser distribution. 2. We used 11 arrays of 5-m long tracking strips consisting of smoothed fine soil to detect the footprints of Jerdon's coursers, and measured tracking rates (tracking events per strip night). We counted the number of bushes and trees, and described other attributes of vegetation and substrate in a 10-m square plot centred on each strip. We obtained reflectance data from Landsat 7 satellite imagery for the pixel within which each strip lay. 3. We used logistic regression models to describe the relationship between tracking rate by Jerdon's coursers and characteristics of the habitat around the strips, using ground-based survey data and satellite imagery. 4. Jerdon's coursers were most likely to occur where the density of large (>2 m tall) bushes was in the range 300-700 ha(-1) and where the density of smaller bushes was less than 1000 ha(-1). This habitat was detectable using satellite imagery. 5. Synthesis and applications. The occurrence of Jerdon's courser is strongly correlated with the density of bushes and trees, and is in turn affected by grazing with domestic livestock, woodcutting and mechanical clearance of bushes to create pasture, orchards and farmland. It is likely that there is an optimal level of grazing and woodcutting that would maintain or create suitable conditions for the species. Knowledge of the species' distribution is incomplete and there is considerable pressure from human use of apparently suitable habitats. Hence, distribution mapping is a high conservation priority. A two-step procedure is proposed, involving the use of ground surveys of bush density to calibrate satellite image-based mapping of potential habitat. These maps could then be used to select priority areas for Jerdon's courser surveys. The use of tracking strips to study habitat selection and distribution has potential in studies of other scarce and secretive species.

The spatial distribution of carbon dioxide in an environmental test chamber

The spatial distribution of CO2 level in a classroom carried out in previous field work research has demonstrated that there is some evidence of variations in CO2 concentration in a classroom space. Significant fluctuations in CO2 concentration were found at different sampling points depending on the ventilation strategies and environmental conditions prevailing in individual classrooms. However, how these variations are affected by the emitting sources and the room air movement remains unknown. Hence, it was concluded that detailed investigation of the CO2 distribution need to be performed on a smaller scale. As a result, it was decided to use an environmental chamber with various methods and rates of ventilation, for the same internal temperature and heat loads, to study the effect of ventilation strategy and air movement on the distribution of CO2 concentration in a room. The role of human exhalation and its interaction with the plume induced by the body's convective flow and room air movement due to different ventilation strategies were studied in a chamber at the University of Reading. These phenomena are considered to be important in understanding and predicting the flow patterns in a space and how these impact on the distribution of contaminants. This paper attempts to study the CO2 dispersion and distribution at the exhalation zone of two people sitting in a chamber as well as throughout the occupied zone of the chamber. The horizontal and vertical distributions of CO2 were sampled at locations with a probability that CO2 variation is considered high. Although the room size, source location, ventilation rate and location of air supply and extract devices all can have influence on the CO2 distribution, this article gives general guidelines on the optimum positioning of CO2 sensor in a room.

Use of the ratio plot in capture-recapture estimation

Statistical graphics are a fundamental, yet often overlooked, set of components in the repertoire of data analytic tools. Graphs are quick and efficient, yet simple instruments of preliminary exploration of a dataset to understand its structure and to provide insight into influential aspects of inference such as departures from assumptions and latent patterns. In this paper, we present and assess a graphical device for choosing a method for estimating population size in capture-recapture studies of closed populations. The basic concept is derived from a homogeneous Poisson distribution where the ratios of neighboring Poisson probabilities multiplied by the value of the larger neighbor count are constant. This property extends to the zero-truncated Poisson distribution which is of fundamental importance in capture–recapture studies. In practice however, this distributional property is often violated. The graphical device developed here, the ratio plot, can be used for assessing specific departures from a Poisson distribution. For example, simple contaminations of an otherwise homogeneous Poisson model can be easily detected and a robust estimator for the population size can be suggested. Several robust estimators are developed and a simulation study is provided to give some guidance on which should be used in practice. More systematic departures can also easily be detected using the ratio plot. In this paper, the focus is on Gamma mixtures of the Poisson distribution which leads to a linear pattern (called structured heterogeneity) in the ratio plot. More generally, the paper shows that the ratio plot is monotone for arbitrary mixtures of power series densities.

The role of increasing temperature variability in European summer heatwaves

Instrumental observations1, 2 and reconstructions3, 4 of global and hemispheric temperature evolution reveal a pronounced warming during the past 150 years. One expression of this warming is the observed increase in the occurrence of heatwaves5, 6. Conceptually this increase is understood as a shift of the statistical distribution towards warmer temperatures, while changes in the width of the distribution are often considered small7. Here we show that this framework fails to explain the record-breaking central European summer temperatures in 2003, although it is consistent with observations from previous years. We find that an event like that of summer 2003 is statistically extremely unlikely, even when the observed warming is taken into account. We propose that a regime with an increased variability of temperatures (in addition to increases in mean temperature) may be able to account for summer 2003. To test this proposal, we simulate possible future European climate with a regional climate model in a scenario with increased atmospheric greenhouse-gas concentrations, and find that temperature variability increases by up to 100%, with maximum changes in central and eastern Europe.

Multivariate measurement error models based on scale mixtures of the skew-normal distribution

Scale mixtures of the skew-normal (SMSN) distribution is a class of asymmetric thick-tailed distributions that includes the skew-normal (SN) distribution as a special case. The main advantage of these classes of distributions is that they are easy to simulate and have a nice hierarchical representation facilitating easy implementation of the expectation-maximization algorithm for the maximum-likelihood estimation. In this paper, we assume an SMSN distribution for the unobserved value of the covariates and a symmetric scale mixtures of the normal distribution for the error term of the model. This provides a robust alternative to parameter estimation in multivariate measurement error models. Specific distributions examined include univariate and multivariate versions of the SN, skew-t, skew-slash and skew-contaminated normal distributions. The results and methods are applied to a real data set.

On the statistical estimation of diffusion processes: a survey

Data available on continuos-time diffusions are always sampled discretely in time. In most cases, the likelihood function of the observations is not directly computable. This survey covers a sample of the statistical methods that have been developed to solve this problem. We concentrate on some recent contributions to the literature based on three di§erent approaches to the problem: an improvement of the Euler-Maruyama discretization scheme, the use of Martingale Estimating Functions and the application of Generalized Method of Moments (GMM).

On the statistical estimation of diffusion processes - a partial survey

Data available on continuous-time diffusions are always sampled discretely in time. In most cases, the likelihood function of the observations is not directly computable. This survey covers a sample of the statistical methods that have been developed to solve this problem. We concentrate on some recent contributions to the literature based on three di§erent approaches to the problem: an improvement of the Euler-Maruyama discretization scheme, the employment of Martingale Estimating Functions, and the application of Generalized Method of Moments (GMM).

Changes in test scores distribution for students of the fourth grade in Brazil: a relative distribution analysis for the years 1997 to 2005

To assess the quality of school education, much of educational research is concerned with comparisons of test scores means or medians. In this paper, we shift this focus and explore test scores data by addressing some often neglected questions. In the case of Brazil, the mean of test scores in Math for students of the fourth grade has declined approximately 0,2 standard deviation in the late 1990s. But what about changes in the distribution of scores? It is unclear whether the decline was caused by deterioration in student performance in upper and/or lower tails of the distribution. To answer this question, we propose the use of the relative distribution method developed by Handcock and Morris (1999). The advantage of this methodology is that it compares two distributions of test scores data through a single distribution and synthesizes all the differences between them. Moreover, it is possible to decompose the total difference between two distributions in a level effect (changes in median) and shape effect (changes in shape of the distribution). We find that the decline of average-test scores is mainly caused by a worsening in the position of all students throughout the distribution of scores and is not only specific to any quantile of distribution.

Mineralogy of the clay fraction of Alfisols in two slope curvatures: III - spatial variability

Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa do Estado de São Paulo (FAPESP)

Mapping the Wigner distribution function of the Morse oscillator onto a semiclassical distribution function

The mapping of the Wigner distribution function (WDF) for a given bound state onto a semiclassical distribution function (SDF) satisfying the Liouville equation introduced previously by us is applied to the ground state of the Morse oscillator. The purpose of the present work is to obtain values of the potential parameters represented by the number of levels in the case of the Morse oscillator, for which the SDF becomes a faithful approximation of the corresponding WDF. We find that for a Morse oscillator with one level only, the agreement between the WDF and the mapped SDF is very poor but for a Morse oscillator of ten levels it becomes satisfactory. We also discuss the limit h --> 0 for fixed potential parameters.

Power-law distributions for the citation index of scientific publications and scientists

The number of citations of a scientific publication or of an individual scientist has become an important factor of quality assessment in science. We report a study of the statistical distribution of the citation index of both scientific publications and scientists. We give numerical evidence that Tsallis (power law) statistics explains the entire distribution over eight orders of magnitude (10-4 to 10(4)). Also, we draw Zipf plots in order to analyze the statistical distribution of the citation index of Brazilian and international physicists and chemists. The relatively small group of Brazilian scientists seems more adequate to explain the dynamics of the citation index. In this case, we find that the distribution of the citation index can also be explained by a gradually truncated power law with similar parameters. We finally discuss possible mechanisms behind the citation index of scientists and scientific publications.

Report on the coordination of international statistical activities in the area of the environment

Includes bibliography.

Dimensional effects on the momentum distribution of bosonic trimer states

The momentum distribution is a powerful probe of strongly interacting systems that are expected to display universal behavior. This is contained in the contact parameters which relate few- and many-body properties. Here we consider a Bose gas in two dimensions and explicitly show that the two-body contact parameter is universal and then demonstrate that the momentum distribution at next-to-leading order has a logarithmic dependence on momentum which is vastly different from the three-dimensional case. Based on this, we propose a scheme for measuring the effective dimensionality of a quantum many-body system by exploiting the functional form of the momentum distribution. © 2013 American Physical Society.

A mixed-integer LP model for the reconfiguration of radial electric distribution systems considering distributed generation

The problem of reconfiguration of distribution systems considering the presence of distributed generation is modeled as a mixed-integer linear programming (MILP) problem in this paper. The demands of the electric distribution system are modeled through linear approximations in terms of real and imaginary parts of the voltage, taking into account typical operating conditions of the electric distribution system. The use of an MILP formulation has the following benefits: (a) a robust mathematical model that is equivalent to the mixed-integer non-linear programming model; (b) an efficient computational behavior with exiting MILP solvers; and (c) guarantees convergence to optimality using classical optimization techniques. Results from one test system and two real systems show the excellent performance of the proposed methodology compared with conventional methods. © 2012 Published by Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.