The Interpretation of Verbal Probability Expressions Used in the IAS/IFRS: the auditors Rrgistered with the portuguese securities market commission

One of the main arguments in favour of the adoption and convergence with the international accounting standards published by the IASB (i.e. IAS/IFRS) is that these will allow comparability of financial reporting across countries. However, because these standards use verbal probability expressions (v.g. “probable”) when establishing the recognition and disclosure criteria for accounting elements, they require professional accountants to interpret and classify the probability of an outcome or event taking into account those terms and expressions and to best decide in terms of financial reporting. This paper reports part of a research we carried out on the interpretation of “in context” verbal probability expressions used in the IAS/IFRS by the auditors registered with the Portuguese Securities Market Commission, the Comissão do Mercado de Valores Mobiliários (CMVM). Our results provide support for the hypothesis that culture affects the CMVM registered auditors’ interpretation of verbal probability expressions through its influence on the accounting value (or attitude) of conservatism. Our results also suggest that there are significant differences in their interpretation of the term “probable”, which is consistent with literature in general. Since “probable” is the most frequent verbal probability expression used in the IAS/IFRS, this may have a negative impact on financial statements comparability.

Short-term electricity prices forecasting in a competitive market by a hybrid PSO-ANFIS approach

In this paper, a novel hybrid approach is proposed for electricity prices forecasting in a competitive market, considering a time horizon of 1 week. The proposed approach is based on the combination of particle swarm optimization and adaptive-network based fuzzy inference system. Results from a case study based on the electricity market of mainland Spain are presented. A thorough comparison is carried out, taking into account the results of previous publications, to demonstrate its effectiveness regarding forecasting accuracy and computation time. Finally, conclusions are duly drawn. (C) 2012 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

A risk-averse optimization model for trading wind energy in a market environment under uncertainty

In this paper, a stochastic programming approach is proposed for trading wind energy in a market environment under uncertainty. Uncertainty in the energy market prices is the main cause of high volatility of profits achieved by power producers. The volatile and intermittent nature of wind energy represents another source of uncertainty. Hence, each uncertain parameter is modeled by scenarios, where each scenario represents a plausible realization of the uncertain parameters with an associated occurrence probability. Also, an appropriate risk measurement is considered. The proposed approach is applied on a realistic case study, based on a wind farm in Portugal. Finally, conclusions are duly drawn. (C) 2011 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Plano de negócios para empresa de iluminação de emergência

Dissertação de Mestrado em Finanças Empresariais

Avaliação do potencial de arrefecimento passivo de um edifício de serviços

As tendências arquitectónicas actuais baseadas na adopção de extensas áreas de envidraçados e de construções com inércia térmica média a fraca resultam num risco acrescido de sobreaquecimento do ambiente interior dos edifícios, e no consequente aumento do consumo de energia para arrefecimento dos mesmos, tornando mais urgente a necessidade de estudar as melhores estratégias para contrariar esse aumento. A presente dissertação destinada à obtenção de grau de Mestre enquadra-se nesta temática e pretende avaliar o potencial de poupança eléctrica gerada por um sistema de arrefecimento passivo num edifício de serviços. Numa primeira fase, identificaram-se as diferentes estratégias de arrefecimento passivo que influenciaram o desempenho dos edifícios no passado e, comparando com edifícios dos nossos dias que com sucesso, aplicaram-se essas mesmas estratégias, demonstrou-se que podemos utilizar recursos da arquitectura vernacular nos edifícios contemporâneos. Posteriormente para avaliar o potencial de arrefecimento em edifícios de serviços para as condições climáticas portuguesas, realizou-se um estudo específico para um edifício real de serviços situado em Coimbra, e recorrendo-se ao software Autodesk Ecotect™, procedeu-se à análise energética da situação actual do edifício, conseguindo-se assim observar os pontos fortes e os pontos fracos do sistema existente. Com base na informação obtida foram testadas soluções a nível de climatização recorrendo à ventilação natural permitindo assim melhorar o desempenho do edifico. Novamente com o programa de cálculo Autodesk Ecotect™ e o Autodesk Green Building Studio™ foi possível fazer uma simulação destes cenários, e compará-los com os resultados da situação existente, podendo desta forma verificar o verdadeiro potencial de arrefecimento do edifício com as medidas propostas

Short-term electricity prices forecasting in a competitive market by a hybrid intelligent approach

In this paper, a hybrid intelligent approach is proposed for short-term electricity prices forecasting in a competitive market. The proposed approach is based on the wavelet transform and a hybrid of neural networks and fuzzy logic. Results from a case study based on the electricity market of mainland Spain are presented. A thorough comparison is carried out, taking into account the results of previous publications. Conclusions are duly drawn. (C) 2010 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

O potencial diagnóstico dos indicadores da obesidade centralizada

OBJETIVO: Tem sido sugerido que os indicadores da obesidade centralizada, representados pela relação entre as medidas das circunferências da cintura e do quadril e pela medida da circunferência da cintura, expressam distúrbios metabólicos diferentes. Assim, realizou-se estudo para verificar o potencial diagnóstico da relação circunferência cintura/circunferência do quadril com fatores sociais, comportamentais e biológicos, determinantes da obesidade centralizada. MÉTODOS: Em uma amostra da população do Município de São Paulo, SP, composta por 1.042 pessoas, foram utilizados dois modelos de análise hierárquica de regressão múltipla para se avaliar as relações entre os indicadores e os fatores determinantes da obesidade centralizada. Foram realizados três inquéritos (clínico, bioquímico e laboratorial e comportamental), utilizando questionário padronizado. Para avaliação, foram utilizados os instrumentos: pressão arterial, medidas antropométricas, medida de cintura e medida do quadril. RESULTADOS: A medida de circunferência da cintura e do quadril (RCQ) mostrou associação significativa com a baixa estatura e foi fortemente relacionada ao nível socioeconômico, não ocorrendo o mesmo com a CC. A RCQ e a medida de circunferência da cintura (CC) foram fortemente associadas à idade, sexo e sedentarismo. As mulheres têm maior risco de apresentaram obesidade centralizada: OR=5,04 e 7,27, para a RCQ e CC, respectivamente. No que se refere aos distúrbios metabólicos, a RCQ associou-se significativamente com as alterações indicativas da síndrome metabólica: hipertensão e baixos níveis de HDL-colesterol. A CC associou-se significativamente com a hipertensão isolada. Ambos os indicadores associaram-se intensamente com a presença concomitante de duas ou mais alterações ligadas à síndrome metabólica. A CC associou-se à hipercolesterolemia, o que não ocorreu com a RCQ. CONCLUSÕES: A RCQ relacionou-se melhor com os fatores socioeconômicos, risco de desnutrição pregressa e com as alterações indicativas da síndrome metabólica do que a CC, mais associada aos fatores de risco para doenças cardiovasculares ateroscleróticas.

Potencial de Bacillus thuringiensis israelensis Berliner no controle de Aedes aegypti

Relata-se a importância da bactéria entomopatogênica Bacillus thuringiensis israelensis para o controle de Aedes aegypti. São abordados a utilização e potencial de B. thuringiensis israelensis contra o mosquito vetor da dengue. Outros aspectos são discutidos como a evolução da resistência dos insetos em relação aos inseticidas químicos e as vantagens e desvantagens do controle microbiano como estratégia de controle. É dada ênfase à importância da utilização desta bactéria no Brasil como alternativa para resolver o problema em questão sem afetar o ambiente, o homem e outros vertebrados nas áreas de risco.

Balancing market integration in MASCEM electricity market simulator

With the restructuring of the energy sector in industrialized countries there is an increased complexity in market players’ interactions along with emerging problems and new issues to be addressed. Decision support tools that facilitate the study and understanding of these markets are extremely useful to provide players with competitive advantage. In this context arises MASCEM, a multi-agent simulator for competitive electricity markets. It is essential to reinforce MASCEM with the ability to recreate electricity markets reality in the fullest possible extent, making it able to simulate as many types of markets models and players as possible. This paper presents the development of the Balancing Market in MASCEM. A key module to the study of competitive electricity markets, as it has well defined and distinct characteristics previously implemented.

Dynamic artificial neural network for electricity market prices forecast

This paper presents an artificial neural network applied to the forecasting of electricity market prices, with the special feature of being dynamic. The dynamism is verified at two different levels. The first level is characterized as a re-training of the network in every iteration, so that the artificial neural network can able to consider the most recent data at all times, and constantly adapt itself to the most recent happenings. The second level considers the adaptation of the neural network’s execution time depending on the circumstances of its use. The execution time adaptation is performed through the automatic adjustment of the amount of data considered for training the network. This is an advantageous and indispensable feature for this neural network’s integration in ALBidS (Adaptive Learning strategic Bidding System), a multi-agent system that has the purpose of providing decision support to the market negotiating players of MASCEM (Multi-Agent Simulator of Competitive Electricity Markets).

A short-term risk management tool applied to OMEL electricity market using particle swarm optimization

Short-term risk management is highly dependent on long-term contractual decisions previously established; risk aversion factor of the agent and short-term price forecast accuracy. Trying to give answers to that problem, this paper provides a different approach for short-term risk management on electricity markets. Based on long-term contractual decisions and making use of a price range forecast method developed by the authors, the short-term risk management tool presented here has as main concern to find the optimal spot market strategies that a producer should have for a specific day in function of his risk aversion factor, with the objective to maximize the profits and simultaneously to practice the hedge against price market volatility. Due to the complexity of the optimization problem, the authors make use of Particle Swarm Optimization (PSO) to find the optimal solution. Results from realistic data, namely from OMEL electricity market, are presented and discussed in detail.

Virtual power producers market strategies

This paper presents MASCEM - a multi-agent based electricity market simulator. MASCEM uses game theory, machine learning techniques, scenario analysis and optimisation techniques to model market agents and to provide them with decision-support. This paper mainly focus on the MASCEM ability to provide the means to model and simulate Virtual Power Producers (VPP). VPPs are represented as a coalition of agents, with specific characteristics and goals. The paper detail some of the most important aspects considered in VPP formation and in the aggregation of new producers and includes a case study.

Transmission price simulator in a liberalized electricity market

This paper presents a software tool (SIM_CMTP) that solves congestion situations and evaluates the taxes to be paid to the transmission system by market agents. SIM_CMTP provides users with a set of alternative methods for cost allocation and enables the definition of specific rules, according to each market and/or situation needs. With these characteristics, SIM_CMTP can be used as an operation aid for Transmission System Operator (TSO) or Independent System Operator (ISO). Due to its openness, it can also be used as a decision-making support tool for evaluating different options of market rules in competitive market environment, guarantying the economic sustainability of the transmission system.

Multi-agent electricity market simulation with dynamic strategies & virtual power producers

Distributed energy resources will provide a significant amount of the electricity generation and will be a normal profitable business. In the new decentralized grid, customers will be among the many decentralized players and may even help to co-produce the required energy services such as demand-side management and load shedding. So, they will gain the opportunity to be more active market players. The aggregation of DG plants gives place to a new concept: the Virtual Power Producer (VPP). VPPs can reinforce the importance of these generation technologies making them valuable in electricity markets. In this paper we propose the improvement of MASCEM, a multi-agent simulation tool to study negotiations in electricity spot markets based on different market mechanisms and behavior strategies, in order to take account of decentralized players such as VPP.

Complex market integration in MASCEM electricity market simulator

The restructuring that the energy sector has suffered in industrialized countries originated a greater complexity in market players’ interactions, and thus new problems and issues to be addressed. Decision support tools that facilitate the study and understanding of these markets become extremely useful to provide players with competitive advantage. In this context arises MASCEM, a multi-agent system for simulating competitive electricity markets. To provide MASCEM with the capacity to recreate the electricity markets reality in the fullest possible extent, it is essential to make it able to simulate as many market models and player types as possible. This paper presents the development of the Complex Market in MASCEM. This module is fundamental to study competitive electricity markets, as it exhibits different characteristics from the already implemented market types.