A log-linear regression model for the beta-Birnbaum-Saunders distribution with censored data

The beta-Birnbaum-Saunders (Cordeiro and Lemonte, 2011) and Birnbaum-Saunders (Birnbaum and Saunders, 1969a) distributions have been used quite effectively to model failure times for materials subject to fatigue and lifetime data. We define the log-beta-Birnbaum-Saunders distribution by the logarithm of the beta-Birnbaum-Saunders distribution. Explicit expressions for its generating function and moments are derived. We propose a new log-beta-Birnbaum-Saunders regression model that can be applied to censored data and be used more effectively in survival analysis. We obtain the maximum likelihood estimates of the model parameters for censored data and investigate influence diagnostics. The new location-scale regression model is modified for the possibility that long-term survivors may be presented in the data. Its usefulness is illustrated by means of two real data sets. (C) 2011 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Aortic distensibility measured by pulse-wave velocity is not modified in patients with Chagas' disease

Abstract Background Experimental studies demonstrate that infection with trypanosoma cruzi causes vasculitis. The inflammatory lesion process could hypothetically lead to decreased distensibility of large and small arteries in advanced Chagas' disease. We tested this hypothesis. Methods and results We evaluated carotid-femoral pulse-wave velocity (PWV) in 53 Chagas' disease patients compared with 31 healthy volunteers (control group). The 53 patients were classified into 3 groups: 1) 16 with indeterminate form of Chagas' disease; 2) 18 with Chagas' disease, electrocardiographic abnormalities, and normal systolic function; 3) 19 with Chagas' disease, systolic dysfunction, and mild-to-moderate congestive heart failure. No difference was noted between the 4 groups regarding carotid-femoral PWV (8.4 ± 1.1 vs 8.2 ± 1.5 vs 8.2 ± 1.4 vs 8.7 ± 1.6 m/s, P = 0.6) or pulse pressure (39.5 ± 7.6 vs 39.3 ± 8.1 vs 39.5 ± 7.4 vs 39.7 ± 6.9 mm Hg, P = 0.9). A positive, significant, similar correlation occurred between PWV and age in patients with Chagas' disease (r = 0.42, P = 0.002), in controls (r = 0.48, P = 0.006), and also between PWV and systolic blood pressure in both groups (patients with Chagas' disease, r = 0.38, P = 0.005; healthy subjects, r = 0.36, P = 0.043). Conclusion Carotid femoral pulse-wave velocity is not modified in patients with Chagas' disease, suggesting that elastic properties of large arteries are not affected in this disorder.

The grain-scale distribution and behaviour of melt and fluid in crystalline analogue systems

The production, segregation and migration of melt and aqueous fluids (henceforth called liquid) plays an important role for the transport of mass and energy within the mantle and the crust of the Earth. Many properties of large-scale liquid migration processes such as the permeability of a rock matrix or the initial segregation of newly formed liquid from the host-rock depends on the grain-scale distribution and behaviour of liquid. Although the general mechanisms of liquid distribution at the grain-scale are well understood, the influence of possibly important modifying processes such as static recrystallization, deformation, and chemical disequilibrium on the liquid distribution is not well constrained. For this thesis analogue experiments were used that allowed to investigate the interplay of these different mechanisms in-situ. In high-temperature environments where melts are produced, the grain-scale distribution in “equilibrium” is fully determined by the liquid fraction and the ratio between the solid-solid and the solid-liquid surface energy. The latter is commonly expressed as the dihedral or wetting angle between two grains and the liquid phase (Chapter 2). The interplay of this “equilibrium” liquid distribution with ongoing surface energy driven recrystallization is investigated in Chapter 4 and 5 with experiments using norcamphor plus ethanol liquid. Ethanol in contact with norcamphor forms a wetting angle of about 25°, which is similar to reported angles of rock-forming minerals in contact with silicate melt. The experiments in Chapter 4 show that previously reported disequilibrium features such as trapped liquid lenses, fully-wetted grain boundaries, and large liquid pockets can be explained by the interplay of the liquid with ongoing recrystallization. Closer inspection of dihedral angles in Chapter 5 reveals that the wetting angles are themselves modified by grain coarsening. Ongoing recrystallization constantly moves liquid-filled triple junctions, thereby altering the wetting angles dynamically as a function of the triple junction velocity. A polycrystalline aggregate will therefore always display a range of equilibrium and dynamic wetting angles at raised temperature, rather than a single wetting angle as previously thought. For the deformation experiments partially molten KNO3–LiNO3 experiments were used in addition to norcamphor–ethanol experiments (Chapter 6). Three deformation regimes were observed. At a high bulk liquid fraction >10 vol.% the aggregate deformed by compaction and granular flow. At a “moderate” liquid fraction, the aggregate deformed mainly by grain boundary sliding (GBS) that was localized into conjugate shear zones. At a low liquid fraction, the grains of the aggregate formed a supporting framework that deformed internally by crystal plastic deformation or diffusion creep. Liquid segregation was most efficient during framework deformation, while GBS lead to slow liquid segregation or even liquid dispersion in the deforming areas.

Effects of low abdominal blood flow and dobutamine on blood flow distribution and on the hepatic arterial buffer response in anaesthetized pigs

Low cardiac output impairs the hepatic arterial buffer response (HABR). Whether this is due to low abdominal blood flow per se is not known. Dobutamine is commonly used to increase cardiac output, and it may further modify hepatosplanchnic and renal vasoregulation. We assessed the effects of isolated abdominal aortic blood flow changes and dobutamine on hepatosplanchnic and renal blood flow. Twenty-five anesthetized pigs with an abdominal aorto-aortic shunt were randomized to 2 control groups [zero (n = 6) and minimal (n = 6) shunt flow], and 2 groups with 50% reduction of abdominal blood flow and either subsequent increased abdominal blood flow by shunt reduction (n = 6) or dobutamine infusion at 5 and 10 microg kg(-1) min(-1) with constant shunt flow (n = 7). Regional (ultrasound) and local (laser Doppler) intra-abdominal blood flows were measured. The HABR was assessed during acute portal vein occlusion. Sustained low abdominal blood flow, by means of shunt activation, decreased liver, gut, and kidney blood flow similarly and reduced local microcirculatory blood flow in the jejunum. Shunt flow reduction partially restored regional blood flows but not jejunal microcirculatory blood flow. Low-but not high-dose dobutamine increased gut and celiac trunk flow whereas hepatic artery and renal blood flows remained unchanged. Neither intervention altered local blood flows. The HABR was not abolished during sustained low abdominal blood flow despite substantially reduced hepatic arterial blood flow and was not modified by dobutamine. Low-but not high-dose dobutamine redistributes blood flow toward the gut and celiac trunk. The jejunal microcirculatory flow, once impaired, is difficult to restore.

Multilevel Latent Class Models with Dirichlet Mixing Distribution

Latent class analysis (LCA) and latent class regression (LCR) are widely used for modeling multivariate categorical outcomes in social sciences and biomedical studies. Standard analyses assume data of different respondents to be mutually independent, excluding application of the methods to familial and other designs in which participants are clustered. In this paper, we develop multilevel latent class model, in which subpopulation mixing probabilities are treated as random effects that vary among clusters according to a common Dirichlet distribution. We apply the Expectation-Maximization (EM) algorithm for model fitting by maximum likelihood (ML). This approach works well, but is computationally intensive when either the number of classes or the cluster size is large. We propose a maximum pairwise likelihood (MPL) approach via a modified EM algorithm for this case. We also show that a simple latent class analysis, combined with robust standard errors, provides another consistent, robust, but less efficient inferential procedure. Simulation studies suggest that the three methods work well in finite samples, and that the MPL estimates often enjoy comparable precision as the ML estimates. We apply our methods to the analysis of comorbid symptoms in the Obsessive Compulsive Disorder study. Our models' random effects structure has more straightforward interpretation than those of competing methods, thus should usefully augment tools available for latent class analysis of multilevel data.

Ethnic differences in macular pigment density and distribution

PURPOSE: Many epidemiologic studies suggest a number of risk factors that may be associated with progression of age-related maculopathy (ARM). In this study, the authors investigate ethnic differences in macular pigment density (MPD) and macular pigment (MP) distribution. METHODS: Inclusion criteria were healthy subjects, aged 35 to 49 years, visual acuity >or=20/20, race ethnicity white non-Hispanic (WNH) or African. All subjects underwent the following examinations: best-corrected ETDRS visual acuity (VA), measurements of MPD, and spatial distribution of MP with a modified confocal scanning laser ophthalmoscope according to a standard protocol. MPD maps were calculated from autofluorescence images recorded at 488 nm and 514 nm. Central macular pigment density (MPDc) was quantified from MPD maps within 0.5 degrees around the center of the fovea. RESULTS: In total, 118 healthy subjects (61 women, 57 men) aged 35 to 49 years (mean, 42.5 +/- 3.6 years) were recruited for the study. Sixty-seven healthy subjects were WNH and 51 were African. Visual acuity ranged from 20/20 to 20/16 in the study eye. Significant differences were found among MPDc between the group of WNH (MPDc, 0.36 +/- 0.13 density units [DU]; P < 0.0001) and African subjects (MPDc, 0.59 +/- 0.14 DU). A parafoveal ring was significantly more frequent in African subjects than in WNH subjects (86% [African] vs. 68% [WNH]; P < 0.0001). CONCLUSIONS: This study demonstrates that ethnicity plays a role in MPD values and in MP distribution. The association of different distribution patterns and their relevance as possible prognostic factors for diseases leading to oxidative retinal damage requires further studies.

Pollen percentage thresholds of Abies alba based on 13-year annual records of pollen deposition in modified Tauber traps: perspectives of application to fossil situations

Abies alba (fir), a submontane tree from Central European mountains and uplands, is of special interest for palaeoecological and palaeoclimate interpretations due to its sensitivity to air and soil humidity. Its present distribution limit in the uplands of SE Poland is still a matter of debate. In the Holocene fir expanded to Poland very late, but early fir populations are supposed to occur in the Šumava Mts (Czech Republic). The study aims: to estimate pollen thresholds for fir presence/absence in Bohemia (Czech Republic) and Poland on the basis of modified Tauber pollen traps; to use these thresholds for tracing fir presence in two pollen diagrams from Poland (Słone and Bezedna lakes) in the border zone between the Roztocze region (with fir forest stands today) and Polesie (where fir has never played an important role); and to investigate how the percentage presence/absence threshold can be used to trace the occurrence and abundance of fir trees in the Šumava Mts based on the pollen diagrams of Rokytecká slat' and Mrtvý luh. The fir pollen thresholds estimated in terms of PAR (pollen accumulation rates or pollen influx) range from 843 (grains cm− 2 year− 1) (Roztocze) to 61 (Krkonoše) and 49 (Šumava). Percentage thresholds range from 0.3% in Krkonoše where fir trees are not present within 4 km to 22% in fir-dominated woodland of the Roztocze, providing evidence of strong underrepresentation of fir in the pollen deposition. Application of these percentage thresholds to the Słone and Bezedna pollen diagrams indicates that occurrence of fir in the region is possible from 3.5 cal ky BP onwards, though the evidence is not decisive. In the Šumava, a low representation of fir pollen (1–2%) reflecting presence of scattered fir trees was detected as early as ca. 7.0 cal ky BP.

Quantitative microstructure analysis of polymer-modified mortars

Digital light, fluorescence and electron microscopy in combination with wavelength-dispersive spectroscopy were used to visualize individual polymers, air voids, cement phases and filler minerals in a polymer-modified cementitious tile adhesive. In order to investigate the evolution and processes involved in formation of the mortar microstructure, quantifications of the phase distribution in the mortar were performed including phase-specific imaging and digital image analysis. The required sample preparation techniques and imaging related topics are discussed. As a form of case study, the different techniques were applied to obtain a quantitative characterization of a specific mortar mixture. The results indicate that the mortar fractionates during different stages ranging from the early fresh mortar until the final hardened mortar stage. This induces process-dependent enrichments of the phases at specific locations in the mortar. The approach presented provides important information for a comprehensive understanding of the functionality of polymer-modified mortars.

Prognosis of amyotrophic lateral sclerosis

Two cohorts of amyotrophic lateral sclerosis (ALS) patients were identified. One incidence-based cohort from Harris County, Texas with 97 cases, and the other a clinic referral series from an ALS clinic in Houston, Texas with 439 cases were followed-up to evaluate the prognosis of ALS. The overall Kaplan-Meier 3-year survival after diagnosis was similar, 0.287 for the incidence cohort and 0.313 for the referral cohort. However, the 5-year survival was much lower for the incidence cohort than the referral cohort (0.037 vs. 0.206). The large difference in 5-year survival was thought to be the results of a stronger unfavorable effect of the prognostic factors in the incidence cohort than in the referral cohort.^ Cohort-specific Weibull regression models were derived to evaluate the cohort-specific prognostic factors and survival probability with adjustment of certain prognostic factors.^ The major prognostic factors were: age at diagnosis, bulbar onset, black ethnicity, and positive family history of ALS in both cohorts. Female gender, simultaneous upper and lower extremities onset were specifically unfavorable factors in the incidence cohort. In the incidence cohort the prognosis was relatively favorable for cases with duration from onset to diagnosis longer than 4 months, however in the referral cohort the relatively favorable prognosis only occurred in cases with duration from onset to diagnosis 1 year or longer and was strongest in cases with duration 5 years and longer. Age at diagnosis modified the effect of bulbar onset in the incidence cohort but not in the referral cohort. The estimated survival with presence of an unfavorable prognostic factor identified in the incidence cohort was higher for the referral cohort than for the incidence cohort. Future studies are indicated to investigate the disease heterogeneity issue of ALS based on survival distribution of ALS. ^

Late Cretaceous to Eocene calcareous nannofossil distribution near Gubbio, Italy

Using a modified sample preparation technique, we have been able to establish a detailed lower Campanian to upper Eocene nannofossil stratigraphy in the Bottaccione and Contessa Highway sections near Gubbio. Appearance and extinction levels of virtually all the commonly used calcareous nannofossil zonal markers have been recognized and can now be closely correlated with the planktonic foraminifera zonation and the magnetic reversal stratigraphy previously established in these sections. Comparisons with the nannofossil calibrations of the oceanic magnetic anomaly sequence in Deep Sea Drilling Project (DSDP) sites suggest that magmetic Subchrons C17N and C25N are missing in the Bottaccione section. The observed variability of the relative stratigraphic position of most plankton events is confirmed to less than one magnetic subchron. Absolute abundance, paleobiogeographic restriction, and differential preservation render some of the traditionally used biostratigraphic events less reliable than others.

Distribution of particulate matter and particulate organic carbon in waters of the Caspian Sea

Data on concentrations and distribution of particulate matter in the Caspian Sea obtained during surveys in 1981-1983 with use of modified filtering units have shown that over the major part of the sea concentration of particulate matter does dot exceed 1-2 mg/l. Only in the northern Caspian and in coastal regions concentrations correspond to values measured earlier. Total amount of particulate matter in the Caspian Sea is about of 90 million ton, 19.6% in the Northern Caspian, 28.1% in the Middle Caspian, and 52.3% in the Southern Caspian. Contents of carbon in particulate matter of the Central Caspian reach 30-40%, and over a significant part of the sea - 20%. A correlation has been found between areas of increased carbon contents in particulate matter and in bottom sediments. An important role of biofiltration in enrichment of particulates in organic matter has been noted. From data on carbon contents and an estimate of particulate matter input biogenic portion in particulate matter exceeds 50% for the whole sea.

Estudio de las propiedades mecánicas de obleas de silicio

En esta tesis se propone un procedimiento para evaluar la resistencia mecánica de obleas de silicio cristalino y se aplica en diferentes casos válidos para la industria. En el sector de la industria fotovoltaica predomina la tecnología basada en paneles de silicio cristalino. Estos paneles están compuestos por células solares conectadas en serie y estas células se forman a partir de obleas de silicio. Con el objetivo de disminuir el coste del panel, en los últimos años se ha observado una clara tendencia a la reducción del espesor de las obleas. Esta reducción del espesor modifica la rigidez de las obleas por lo que ha sido necesario modificar la manera tradicional de manipularlas con el objetivo de mantener un bajo ratio de rotura. Para ello, es necesario conocer la resistencia mecánica de las obleas. En la primera parte del trabajo se describen las obleas de silicio, desde su proceso de formación hasta sus propiedades mecánicas. Se muestra la influencia de la estructura cristalográfica en la resistencia y en el comportamiento ya que el cristal de silicio es anisótropo. Se propone también el método de caracterización de la resistencia. Se utiliza un criterio probabilista basado en los métodos de dimensionamiento de materiales frágiles en el que la resistencia queda determinada por los parámetros de la ley de Weibull triparamétrica. Se propone el procedimiento para obtener estos parámetros a partir de campañas de ensayos, modelización numérica por elementos finitos y un algoritmo iterativo de ajuste de los resultados. En la segunda parte de la tesis se describen los diferentes tipos de ensayos que se suelen llevar a cabo con este material. Se muestra además, para cada uno de los ensayos descritos, un estudio comparativo de diferentes modelos de elementos finitos simulando los ensayos. Se comparan tanto los resultados aportados por cada modelo como los tiempos de cálculo. Por último, se presentan tres aplicaciones diferentes donde se ha aplicado este procedimiento de estudio. La primera aplicación consiste en la comparación de la resistencia mecánica de obleas de silicio en función del método de crecimiento del lingote. La resistencia de las tradicionales obleas monocristalinas obtenidas por el método Czochralski y obleas multicristalinas es comparada con las novedosas obleas quasi-monocristalinas obtenidas por métodos de fundición. En la segunda aplicación se evalúa la profundidad de las grietas generadas en el proceso de corte del lingote en obleas. Este estudio se realiza de manera indirecta: caracterizando la resistencia de grupos de obleas sometidas a baños químicos de diferente duración. El baño químico reduce el espesor de las obleas eliminando las capas más dañadas. La resistencia de cada grupo es analizada y la comparación permite obtener la profundidad de las grietas generadas en el proceso de corte. Por último, se aplica este procedimiento a un grupo de obleas con características muy especiales: obleas preparadas para formar células de contacto posterior EWT. Estas obleas presentan miles de agujeros que las debilitan considerablemente. Se aplica el procedimiento de estudio propuesto con un grupo de estas obleas y se compara la resistencia obtenida con un grupo de referencia. Además, se propone un método simplificado de estudio basado en la aplicación de una superficie de intensificación de tensiones. ABSTRACT In this thesis, a procedure to evaluate the mechanical strength of crystalline silicon wafers is proposed and applied in different studies. The photovoltaic industry is mainly based on crystalline silicon modules. These modules are composed of solar cells which are based on silicon wafers. Regarding the cost reduction of solar modules, a clear tendency to use thinner wafers has been observed during last years. Since the stiffness varies with thickness, the manipulation techniques need to be modified in order to guarantee a low breakage rate. To this end, the mechanical strength has to be characterized correctly. In the first part of the thesis, silicon wafers are described including the different ways to produce them and the mechanical properties of interest. The influence of the crystallographic structure in the strength and the behaviour (the anisotropy of the silicon crystal) is shown. In addition, a method to characterize the mechanical strength is proposed. This probabilistic procedure is based on methods to characterize brittle materials. The strength is characterized by the values of the three parameters of the Weibull cumulative distribution function (cdf). The proposed method requires carrying out several tests, to simulate them through Finite Element models and an iterative algorithm in order to estimate the parameters of the Weibull cdf. In the second part of the thesis, the different types of test that are usually employed with these samples are described. Moreover, different Finite Element models for the simulation of each test are compared regarding the information supplied by each model and the calculation times. Finally, the method of characterization is applied to three examples of practical applications. The first application consists in the comparison of the mechanical strength of silicon wafers depending on the ingot growth method. The conventional monocrystalline wafers based on the Czochralski method and the multicrystalline ones are compared with the new quasi-monocrystalline substrates. The second application is related to the estimation of the crack length caused by the drilling process. An indirect way is used to this end: several sets of silicon wafers are subjected to chemical etchings of different duration. The etching procedure reduces the thickness of the wafers removing the most damaged layers. The strength of each set is obtained by means of the proposed method and the comparison permits to estimate the crack length. At last, the procedure is applied to determine the strength of wafers used for the design of back-contact cells of type ETW. These samples are drilled in a first step resulting in silicon wafers with thousands of tiny holes. The strength of the drilled wafers is obtained and compared with the one of a standard set without holes. Moreover, a simplified approach based on a stress intensification surface is proposed.

Detection of exocytosis at individual pancreatic beta cells by amperometry at a chemically modified microelectrode.

Amperometry at a carbon fiber microelectrode modified with a composite of ruthenium oxide and cyanoruthenate was used to monitor chemical secretions of single pancreatic beta cells from rats and humans. When the insulin secretagogues glucose, tolbutamide, and K+ were applied to the cell, a series of randomly occurring current spikes was observed. The current spikes were shown to be due to the detection of chemical substances secreted from the cell. Chromatography showed that the primary secreted substance detected by the electrode was insulin. The current spikes were strongly dependent on external Ca2+, had an average area that was independent of the stimulation method, and had an area distribution which corresponded to the distribution of vesicle sizes in beta cells. It was concluded that the spikes were due to the detection of concentration pulses of insulin secreted by exocytosis.

Variability in Modified Estimators of VaR and ES

Thesis (Master's)--University of Washington, 2016-06

Adsorption of pure fluids in activated carbon with a modified lattice gas model

In this article we study the effects of adsorbed phase compression, lattice structure, and pore size distribution on the analysis of adsorption in microporous activated carbon. The lattice gas approach of Ono-Kondo is modified to account for the above effects. Data of nitrogen adsorption at 77 K onto a number of activated carbon samples are analyzed to investigate the pore filling pressure versus pore width, the packing effect, and the compression of the adsorbed phase. It is found that the PSDs obtained from this analysis are comparable to those obtained by the DFT method. The discrete nature of the PSDs derived from the modified lattice gas theory is due to the inherent assumption of discrete layers of molecules. Nevertheless, it does provide interesting information on the evolution of micropores during the activation process.