Different likelihood ratio approaches to evaluate the strength of evidence of MDMA tablet comparisons

Two likelihood ratio (LR) approaches are presented to evaluate the strength of evidence of MDMA tablet comparisons. The first one is based on a more 'traditional' comparison of MDMA tablets by using distance measures (e.g., Pearson correlation distance or a Euclidean distance). In this approach, LRs are calculated using the distribution of distances between tablets of the same-batch and that of different-batches. The second approach is based on methods used in some other fields of forensic comparison. Here LRs are calculated based on the distribution of values of MDMA tablet characteristics within a specific batch and from all batches. The data used in this paper must be seen as examples to illustrate both methods. In future research the methods can be applied to other and more complex data. In this paper, the methods and their results are discussed, considering their performance in evidence evaluation and several practical aspects. With respect to evidence in favor of the correct hypothesis, the second method proved to be better than the first one. It is shown that the LRs in same-batch comparisons are generally higher compared to the first method and the LRs in different-batch comparisons are generally lower. On the other hand, for operational purposes (where quick information is needed), the first method may be preferred, because it is less time consuming. With this method a model has to be estimated only once in a while, which means that only a few measurements have to be done, while with the second method more measurements are needed because each time a new model has to be estimated.

Troponin-based risk stratification of patients with acute nonmassive pulmonary embolism: systematic review and metaanalysis.

BACKGROUND: Controversy exists regarding the usefulness of troponin testing for the risk stratification of patients with acute pulmonary embolism (PE). We conducted an updated systematic review and a metaanalysis of troponin-based risk stratification of normotensive patients with acute symptomatic PE. The sources of our data were publications listed in Medline and Embase from 1980 through April 2008 and a review of cited references in those publications. METHODS: We included all studies that estimated the relation between troponin levels and the incidence of all-cause mortality in normotensive patients with acute symptomatic PE. Two reviewers independently abstracted data and assessed study quality. From the literature search, 596 publications were screened. Nine studies that consisted of 1,366 normotensive patients with acute symptomatic PE were deemed eligible. Pooled results showed that elevated troponin levels were associated with a 4.26-fold increased odds of overall mortality (95% CI, 2.13 to 8.50; heterogeneity chi(2) = 12.64; degrees of freedom = 8; p = 0.125). Summary receiver operating characteristic curve analysis showed a relationship between the sensitivity and specificity of troponin levels to predict overall mortality (Spearman rank correlation coefficient = 0.68; p = 0.046). Pooled likelihood ratios (LRs) were not extreme (negative LR, 0.59 [95% CI, 0.39 to 0.88]; positive LR, 2.26 [95% CI, 1.66 to 3.07]). The Begg rank correlation method did not detect evidence of publication bias. CONCLUSIONS: The results of this metaanalysis indicate that elevated troponin levels do not adequately discern normotensive patients with acute symptomatic PE who are at high risk for death from those who are at low risk for death.

09006-003 Bear Creek Watershed Final Report

Bear Creek is an impaired warm water fishery designated as class B(LR) by the Iowa DNR and is on 303 impaired waters list for fish kills and ammonia. Bear Creek is located in eastern Delaware County. This project is designed to improve the water quality of Bear Creek by educating the landowners, operators and watershed community about the importance of this water resource. The goal of the Bear Creek Watershed Project is to improve the water quality of Bear Creek by reducing the amounts of ammoniated manure discharge, fecal coliform bacteria, sediment, nitrogen, and phosphorous. The Bear Creek Watershed Project has been a watershed project since July 2004, first as a Demo project FY 2004-2005 and then full time WSPF/319 project FY06-09. Fish kills have not occurred in 2008-2009. Sediment delivery has decreased in the Bear Creek Watershed by 5,328 tons per year. The objectives of this watershed project will be to improve Livestock Waste Storage, to improve Livestock Waste Usage, to decrease Sediment Losses, and to improve Education & Area Outreach. This project will install 2 manure storage structures (EQIP/project funded), 19 ac of CRP waterways, 12 ac of project waterways, 17 ac of CRP filter strips along stream, 12 water and sediment control basins, 18,000 ft of terraces, 350 ac of new notill planting, and 3,700 ft of streambank protection.

Bayesian Networks and the Value of the Evidence for the Forensic Two-Trace Transfer Problem

Forensic scientists face increasingly complex inference problems for evaluating likelihood ratios (LRs) for an appropriate pair of propositions. Up to now, scientists and statisticians have derived LR formulae using an algebraic approach. However, this approach reaches its limits when addressing cases with an increasing number of variables and dependence relationships between these variables. In this study, we suggest using a graphical approach, based on the construction of Bayesian networks (BNs). We first construct a BN that captures the problem, and then deduce the expression for calculating the LR from this model to compare it with existing LR formulae. We illustrate this idea by applying it to the evaluation of an activity level LR in the context of the two-trace transfer problem. Our approach allows us to relax assumptions made in previous LR developments, produce a new LR formula for the two-trace transfer problem and generalize this scenario to n traces.

Expression des récepteurs aux facteurs de croissance (autres que KIT et PDGFRA) dans les tumeurs stromales gastro-intestinales : étude anatomo-clinique et immunohistochimique de 80 cas

Résumé Les tumeurs stromales gastro-intestinales (GISTs) sont des tumeurs de malignité variable du tractus gastro-intestinal d'évolution difficilement prévisible. Plus de 95% d'entre elles expriment les récepteurs KIT (90%) ou PDGFRA (5%), deux récepteurs aux facteurs de croissance à activité tyrosine-kinase. Peu de données existent quant à l'expression éventuelles d'autres récepteurs aux facteurs de croissance dans les GISTs. Buts de l'étude: Les buts de cette étude étaient double: 1-évaluer l'expression de plusieurs récepteurs aux facteurs de croissance, à l'exclusion de KIT et PDGFRA, au sein d'un collectif de GISTs; 2 -voir s'il existait une corrélation entre l'expression d'un ou plusieurs de ces récepteurs, les données anatomo-pathologiques et/ou l'évolution clinique Matériel et méthodes 80 GISTs ont été examinées sur le plan clinique, anatomo-pathologique, immunohistochimique et évolutif. L'immunoexpression des récepteurs aux facteurs de croissance suivants a été examinée: IGF-1r - insulin-like growth factor-1 receptor, FGFr fibroblast growth factor receptor, C-MET - hepatocyte growth factor receptor, TGFßr (type 1) - transforming growth factor beta receptor, type 1, CD105/endogline, RET et NGFr/gp75 (nerve growth factor receptor). Résultats 52.7% des GISTs exprimaient C-MET, 50% CD105iendogline, 36.7% RET, 25% NGFr/gp75, 17.5°Io TGFßr, 7.5% FGFr, et 0% IGF-lr. La présence ou non d'une expression de CD105 et son intensité étaient significativement associées à une évolution défavorable, tant pour les patients présentant une maladie localisée au diagnostic que pour ceux qui étaient métastatiques au diagnostic. L'expression de C-MET était aussi corrélée, mais de façon moins significative; à une évolution défavorable. En analyse multivariée, l'expression de CD105 est un facteur pronostique indépendant défavorable. Conclusion Les GISTs expriment de façon variable des récepteurs aux facteurs de croissance autres que KIT et PDGFRA. Les récepteurs au TGFß, au FGF et à l'IGF sont peu exprimés. L'endogline/CD105 et le récepteur C-MET sont plus fréquemment exprimés et leur expression est associée à une évolution clinique défavorable.

Stratification of the severity of critically ill patients with classification trees

Background: Development of three classification trees (CT) based on the CART (Classification and Regression Trees), CHAID (Chi-Square Automatic Interaction Detection) and C4.5 methodologies for the calculation of probability of hospital mortality; the comparison of the results with the APACHE II, SAPS II and MPM II-24 scores, and with a model based on multiple logistic regression (LR). Methods: Retrospective study of 2864 patients. Random partition (70:30) into a Development Set (DS) n = 1808 and Validation Set (VS) n = 808. Their properties of discrimination are compared with the ROC curve (AUC CI 95%), Percent of correct classification (PCC CI 95%); and the calibration with the Calibration Curve and the Standardized Mortality Ratio (SMR CI 95%). Results: CTs are produced with a different selection of variables and decision rules: CART (5 variables and 8 decision rules), CHAID (7 variables and 15 rules) and C4.5 (6 variables and 10 rules). The common variables were: inotropic therapy, Glasgow, age, (A-a)O2 gradient and antecedent of chronic illness. In VS: all the models achieved acceptable discrimination with AUC above 0.7. CT: CART (0.75(0.71-0.81)), CHAID (0.76(0.72-0.79)) and C4.5 (0.76(0.73-0.80)). PCC: CART (72(69- 75)), CHAID (72(69-75)) and C4.5 (76(73-79)). Calibration (SMR) better in the CT: CART (1.04(0.95-1.31)), CHAID (1.06(0.97-1.15) and C4.5 (1.08(0.98-1.16)). Conclusion: With different methodologies of CTs, trees are generated with different selection of variables and decision rules. The CTs are easy to interpret, and they stratify the risk of hospital mortality. The CTs should be taken into account for the classification of the prognosis of critically ill patients.

Short communication. Potential to mitigate anthropogenic CO2 emissions by tillage reduction in dryland soils of Spain

Spain is one of the countries with the highest greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions within the EU-27. Consequently, mitigation strategies need to be reported and quantified to accomplish the goals and requirements of the Kyoto Protocol. In this study, a first estimation of the carbon (C) mitigation potential of tillage reduction in Mediterranean rainfed Spain is presented. Results from eight studies carried out in Spain under rainfed agriculture to investigate the effects of no-tillage (NT) and reduced tillage (RT) compared with conventional tillage (CT) on soil organic carbon (SOC) were used. For current land surface under conservation tillage, NT and RT are sequestering 0.14 and 0.08 Tg C yr-1, respectively. Those rates represent 1.1% and 0.6% of the total CO2 emissions generated from agricultural activities in Spain during 2006. Alternatively, in a hypothetical scenario where all the arable dryland was under either NT or RT management, SOC sequestration would be 2.18 and 0.72 Tg C yr-1 representing 17.4% and 5.8% of the total 2006 CO2 equivalent emissions generated from the agricultural sector in Spain. This is a significant estimate that would help to achieve GHG emissions targets for the current commitment period of the Kyoto Protocol.

An efficient total variation algorithm for super-resolution in fetal brain MRI with adaptive regularization.

Although fetal anatomy can be adequately viewed in new multi-slice MR images, many critical limitations remain for quantitative data analysis. To this end, several research groups have recently developed advanced image processing methods, often denoted by super-resolution (SR) techniques, to reconstruct from a set of clinical low-resolution (LR) images, a high-resolution (HR) motion-free volume. It is usually modeled as an inverse problem where the regularization term plays a central role in the reconstruction quality. Literature has been quite attracted by Total Variation energies because of their ability in edge preserving but only standard explicit steepest gradient techniques have been applied for optimization. In a preliminary work, it has been shown that novel fast convex optimization techniques could be successfully applied to design an efficient Total Variation optimization algorithm for the super-resolution problem. In this work, two major contributions are presented. Firstly, we will briefly review the Bayesian and Variational dual formulations of current state-of-the-art methods dedicated to fetal MRI reconstruction. Secondly, we present an extensive quantitative evaluation of our SR algorithm previously introduced on both simulated fetal and real clinical data (with both normal and pathological subjects). Specifically, we study the robustness of regularization terms in front of residual registration errors and we also present a novel strategy for automatically select the weight of the regularization as regards the data fidelity term. Our results show that our TV implementation is highly robust in front of motion artifacts and that it offers the best trade-off between speed and accuracy for fetal MRI recovery as in comparison with state-of-the art methods.

Outcomes After Liver Resection for Hepatic Alveolar Echinococcosis: A Single-Center Cohort Study.

BACKGROUND: Switzerland is a region in which alveolar echinococcosis (AE) is endemic. Studies evaluating outcomes after liver resection (LR) for AE are scarce. The aim of this study was to assess the short- and long-term outcomes of AE patients after LR in a single tertiary referral center. METHODS: We retrospectively analyzed data pertaining to all patients with liver AE who were treated with LR at our institution between January 1992 and December 2013. Patient demographics, intraoperative data, extent of LR procedures (major vs. minor LR), postoperative outcomes, and negative histological margin (R0) resection rate were recorded in a database. Recurrence rates after LR were analyzed. RESULTS: LR was performed in 59 patients diagnosed with hepatic AE (56 complete surgeries, 3 reduction surgeries). Postoperative morbidity and mortality were observed in 34 % (25 % grade I-II, 9 % grade III-IV) and 2 % of the patients, respectively. R0 (complete) resection rate was 71 % (n = 42), and R1/R2 resection rate was 29 % (n = 17). Extra-hepatic recurrence occurred in 1 case (lung) after R0 resection. In cases of R1/R2 resection, 7 intra-hepatic disease progressions occurred with a median time of 10 months (IQR 6-11 months). Long-term (more than 1 year) benzimidazole treatment stabilized the disease in 64 % (9/14) of patients with R1 status. The overall survival rate was 97 %. CONCLUSIONS: Liver AE can be safely and definitively treated with LR, provided that R0 resection is achieved. In cases of R1 resection, benzimidazole therapy seems to be effective in stabilizing the intra-hepatic disease and preventing extra-hepatic recurrence.

Helping formulate propositions in forensic DNA analysis

The Bayesian paradigm is the preferred approach to evidence interpretation. It requires the evaluation of the probability of the evidence under at least two propositions. The value of the findings (i.e., our LR) will depend on these propositions and the case information, so it is crucial to identify which propositions are useful for the case at hand. Previously, a number of principles have been advanced and largely accepted for the evaluation of evidence. In the evaluation of traces involving DNA mixtures there may be more than two propositions possible. We apply these principles to some exemplar situations. We also show that in some cases, when there are no clear propositions or no defendant, a forensic scientist may be able to generate explanations to account for observations. In that case, the scientist plays a role of investigator, rather than evaluator. We believe that it is helpful for the scientist to distinguish those two roles.

Performance of 18F-FET versus 18F-FDG-PET for the diagnosis and grading of brain tumors: systematic review and meta-analysis.

BACKGROUND: For the past decade (18)F-fluoro-ethyl-l-tyrosine (FET) and (18)F-fluoro-deoxy-glucose (FDG) positron emission tomography (PET) have been used for the assessment of patients with brain tumor. However, direct comparison studies reported only limited numbers of patients. Our purpose was to compare the diagnostic performance of FET and FDG-PET. METHODS: We examined studies published between January 1995 and January 2015 in the PubMed database. To be included the study should: (i) use FET and FDG-PET for the assessment of patients with isolated brain lesion and (ii) use histology as the gold standard. Analysis was performed on a per patient basis. Study quality was assessed with STARD and QUADAS criteria. RESULTS: Five studies (119 patients) were included. For the diagnosis of brain tumor, FET-PET demonstrated a pooled sensitivity of 0.94 (95% CI: 0.79-0.98) and pooled specificity of 0.88 (95% CI: 0.37-0.99), with an area under the curve of 0.96 (95% CI: 0.94-0.97), a positive likelihood ratio (LR+) of 8.1 (95% CI: 0.8-80.6), and a negative likelihood ratio (LR-) of 0.07 (95% CI: 0.02-0.30), while FDG-PET demonstrated a sensitivity of 0.38 (95% CI: 0.27-0.50) and specificity of 0.86 (95% CI: 0.31-0.99), with an area under the curve of 0.40 (95% CI: 0.36-0.44), an LR+ of 2.7 (95% CI: 0.3-27.8), and an LR- of 0.72 (95% CI: 0.47-1.11). Target-to-background ratios of either FDG or FET, however, allow distinction between low- and high-grade gliomas (P > .11). CONCLUSIONS: For brain tumor diagnosis, FET-PET performed much better than FDG and should be preferred when assessing a new isolated brain tumor. For glioma grading, however, both tracers showed similar performances.

Lignanas de Strychnos guianensis (Aublet) Mart.

The present communication reports the isolation and identification of three lignans from metanolic root extracts of Strychnos guianensis (Aublet) Mart.: olivil (1), cycloolivil (2) and the unknown derivative cycloolivil carbonate (3). From hexane extracts was identified a long chain fatty acid mixture and the triterpene lupeol. The analyses were based on chromatographic and spectroscopy techniques (IR, MS, GC/MS, ¹H-NMR and 13C-NMR, 1D (BB, DEPT 135) and 2D (¹H, ¹ H-COSY, ¹H, 13C-COSY, ¹H, 13C-COSY-LR, HMQC, HMBC and NOESY) and comparison with literature data.

Human papillomavirus (HPV) in mothers before and after delivery – a three year follow-up study.

Human papillomavirus (HPV) infections in mothers are important to consider since pregnancy may affect the outcome of the infection and the mother may transmit HPV to the child. This thesis is part of the 3-year Finnish Family HPV Study on HPV infection dynamics within 329 families. The presence of maternal HPV antibodies and HPV DNA in placenta, umbilical cord blood and breast milk was examined. In addition, genital and oral HR-HPV carriage was studied among mothers with one or two pregnancies. At enrollment, seropositivity to HPV 6, 11, 16, 18 and 45 was recorded in 53 %, 21 %, 35 %, 21 % and 9 % of the mothers, respectively. Age at sexual debut, number of sexual partners, a history of genital warts and antibodies to LR/HR-HPV predicted HR/LR-HPV-seropositivity. During follow-up 27 %, 14 %, 17 %, 17 % and 7 % of the mothers seroconverted to the tested HPV-types, respectively. Decay of HPV-antibodies was rare. The mother’s new pregnancy was of minor impact in the outcome of oral and cervical HR-HPV infections. HPV-DNA was present in 4.2 % and 3.5 % of the placentas and umbilical cord blood samples, and in 4.5 % and 19.7 % of the breast milk samples collected at day 3 and month 2 postpartum, respectively. HPV-positivity in placenta/cord blood was related to a history of abnormal pap-smears or genital warts, and raised the risk of the neonate being HPV-positive at birth. The mode of delivery did not predict the HPVstatus of neonate, placenta, or cord blood. HPV DNA in breast milk was associated with oral HPV status of the father, but not with HPV status of the neonate. The results indicate that exposure to HPV is common and that part of the exposure might take place already early in life. Contrary to the common claim, pregnancy is not a risk factor for HPV.

Estudo da oxidação dos sulfetos sintéticos molibdenita (MoS2) e covelita (CuS) por Acidithiobacillus ferrooxidans via respirometria celular

This paper analyses the oxidation of covellite and molybdenite by Acidithiobacillus ferrooxidans strain LR using respirometric experiments. The results showed that both sulfides were oxidized by A. ferrooxidans, however, the covellite oxidation was much higher than molybdenite. Regarding the kinetic oxidation, the findings revealed that just molybdenite oxidation followed the classical Michaelis-Menten kinetic. It is probably associated with the pathway which these sulfides react to chemistry-bacterial attack, what is influenced by its electronic structures. Besides, experiments conducted in the presence of Fe3+ did not indicate alterations in molybdenite oxidation. Thus, ferric ions seem not to be essential to the sulfide oxidations.

Degradação de poluentes emergentes por processos Fenton e foto-Fenton

A continuous photochemical treatment system was developed for aiming the treatment of aqueous solutions containing relevant micro-pollutants (microcystin-LR, sulfamethoxazole and 17-b estradiol). The continuous photo-Fenton process provided high degradation efficiency. However, contact time between samples and the irradiated region is short relative to total treatment time, indicating that observed changes are predominantly due to the Fenton process. Higher degradation efficiency was observed in systems operated using two treatment cycles, the first involving a batch Fenton process and the second a continuous photo-Fenton treatment.