DYNAMICS OF THE SHORT TERM AND LONG TERM AVIAN DISTRIBUTIONS IN NORTH AMERICA - THE ROLES OF VEGETATION HEIGHT HETEROGENEITY AND CLIMATIC FACTORS

Understanding how biodiversity spatially distribute over both the short term and long term, and what factors are affecting the distribution, are critical for modeling the spatial pattern of biodiversity as well as for promoting effective conservation planning and practices. This dissertation aims to examine factors that influence short-term and long-term avian distribution from the geographical sciences perspective. The research develops landscape level habitat metrics to characterize forest height heterogeneity and examines their efficacies in modelling avian richness at the continental scale. Two types of novel vegetation-height-structured habitat metrics are created based on second order texture algorithms and the concepts of patch-based habitat metrics. I correlate the height-structured metrics with the richness of different forest guilds, and also examine their efficacies in multivariate richness models. The results suggest that height heterogeneity, beyond canopy height alone, supplements habitat characterization and richness models of two forest bird guilds. The metrics and models derived in this study demonstrate practical examples of utilizing three-dimensional vegetation data for improved characterization of spatial patterns in species richness. The second and the third projects focus on analyzing centroids of avian distributions, and testing hypotheses regarding the direction and speed of these shifts. I first showcase the usefulness of centroids analysis for characterizing the distribution changes of a few case study species. Applying the centroid method on 57 permanent resident bird species, I show that multi-directional distribution shifts occurred in large number of studied species. I also demonstrate, plain birds are not shifting their distribution faster than mountain birds, contrary to the prediction based on climate change velocity hypothesis. By modelling the abundance change rate at regional level, I show that extreme climate events and precipitation measures associate closely with some of the long-term distribution shifts. This dissertation improves our understanding on bird habitat characterization for species richness modelling, and expands our knowledge on how avian populations shifted their ranges in North America responding to changing environments in the past four decades. The results provide an important scientific foundation for more accurate predictive species distribution modeling in future.

Validation of the effects of a single one second hypochlorite floral dip on Botrytis cinerea incidence following long-term shipment of cut roses

The effect of a pre-shipment hypochlorite treatment on botrytis incidence was evaluated in a large number of rose cultivars and under different long-term storage conditions. Application parameters, stability and sources of hypochlorite were investigated. Irrespective of the type of packaging and shipment conditions, roses that received a pre-shipment treatment with 100 to 150 mg/L hypochlorite showed a significantly decreased botrytis incidence compared to non-hypochlorite treated roses. The hypochlorite treatment generally was more effective than a comparable treatment with commercial fungicides. Dipping the flower heads for approximately one second in a hypochlorite solution was more effective than spraying the heads. In few cases minor hypochlorite-induced damage on the petal tips was observed at higher concentrations (>200 mg/L). Apart from the effect on botrytis incidence, the treatment resulted in reduced water loss that may have an additional beneficial effect on the eventual flower quality. It is concluded that, apart from other obvious measures to reduce botrytis incidence (prevention of high humidity at the flower heads) a pre-shipment floral dip in 100 to 150 mg/L hypochlorite from commercial household bleach is an easy and cost effective way to reduce botrytis incidence following long term storage/transportation of roses. © 2015, International Society for Horticultural Science. All rights reserved.

The impact of indoor air quality and contaminants on respiratory health of older people living in long-term care residences in Porto

Background: persons who are 65 years or older often spend an important part of their lives indoors thus adverse indoor climate might influence their health status. Objective: to evaluate the influence of indoor air quality and contaminants on older people’s respiratory health. Design: cross-sectional study. Setting: 21 long-term care residences (LTC) in the city of Porto, Portugal. Subjects: older people living in LTC with ≥65 years old. Methods: the Portuguese version of BOLD questionnaire was administered by an interviewer to older residents able to participate (n = 143). Indoor air contaminants (IAC) were measured twice, during winter and summer in 135 areas. Mixed effects logistic regression models were used to study the association between the health questionnaire results and the monitored IAC, adjusted for age, smoking habits, gender and number of years living in the LTC. Results: cough (23%) and sputum (12%) were the major respiratory symptoms, and allergic rhinitis (18%) the main selfreported illness. Overall particulate matter up to 2.5 micrometres in size median concentration was above the reference levels both in winter and summer seasons. Peak values of particulate matter up to 10 micrometres in size (PM10), total volatile organic compounds, carbon dioxide, bacteria and fungi exceeded the reference levels. Older people exposed to PM10 above the reference levels demonstrated higher odds of allergic rhinitis (OR = 2.9, 95% CI: 1.1–7.2). Conclusion: high levels of PM10 were associated with 3-fold odds of allergic rhinitis. No association was found between indoor air chemical and biological contaminants and respiratory symptoms.

Predicting long-term outcome after acute ischemic stroke: a simple index works in patients from controlled clinical trials

Background and Purpose—An early and reliable prognosis for recovery in stroke patients is important for initiation of individual treatment and for informing patients and relatives. We recently developed and validated models for predicting survival and functional independence within 3 months after acute stroke, based on age and the National Institutes of Health Stroke Scale score assessed within 6 hours after stroke. Herein we demonstrate the applicability of our models in an independent sample of patients from controlled clinical trials. Methods—The prognostic models were used to predict survival and functional recovery in 5419 patients from the Virtual International Stroke Trials Archive (VISTA). Furthermore, we tried to improve the accuracy by adapting intercepts and estimating new model parameters. Results—The original models were able to correctly classify 70.4% (survival) and 72.9% (functional recovery) of patients. Because the prediction was slightly pessimistic for patients in the controlled trials, adapting the intercept improved the accuracy to 74.8% (survival) and 74.0% (functional recovery). Novel estimation of parameters, however, yielded no relevant further improvement. Conclusions—For acute ischemic stroke patients included in controlled trials, our easy-to-apply prognostic models based on age and National Institutes of Health Stroke Scale score correctly predicted survival and functional recovery after 3 months. Furthermore, a simple adaptation helps to adjust for a different prognosis and is recommended if a large data set is available. (Stroke. 2008;39:000-000.)

Does therapeutic writing help people with long-term conditions? Systematic review, realist synthesis and economic considerations

Background Writing therapy to improve physical or mental health can take many forms. The most researched model of therapeutic writing (TW) is unfacilitated, individual expressive writing (written emotional disclosure). Facilitated writing activities are less widely researched. Data sources Databases including: MEDLINE, EMBASE, PsychINFO, Linguistics and Language Behavior Abstracts, AMED, and CINHAL were searched from inception to March 2013. Review methods Four TW practitioners provided expert advice. Study procedures were conducted by one reviewer and checked by a second. Randomised controlled trials (RCTs) and non-randomised comparative studies were included. Quality was appraised using the Cochrane risk of bias tool. Unfacilitated and facilitated TW studies were analysed separately under ICD-10 chapter headings. Meta-analyses were performed where possible using Revman 5.2. Costs were estimated from an NHS perspective and three cost-consequence case studies were prepared. Realist synthesis followed RAMESES guidelines. Objectives To review the clinical and cost-effectiveness of TW for people with long-term health conditions (LTCs) compared to no writing, or other controls, reporting any relevant clinical outcomes. To conduct a realist synthesis to understand how TW might work, and for whom. Results From 14,658 unique citations, 284 full text papers were reviewed and 64 studies (58 RCTs) were included in the final effectiveness reviews. Five studies examined facilitated TW, these were extremely heterogeneous with unclear or high risk of bias, but suggested that facilitated TW interventions may be beneficial in individual LTCs. Unfacilitated expressive writing was examined in 59 studies of variable, or unreported, quality. Overall there was very little or no evidence of any benefit reported in the following conditions (number of studies): HIV (six); breast cancer (eight); gynaecological and genitourinary cancers (five); mental health (five); asthma (four); psoriasis (three); chronic pain (four). In inflammatory arthropathies (six) there was a reduction in disease severity (n= 191, standardised mean difference (SMD) - 0.61 [95% confidence intervals (95% CI) -0.96, -0.26]) in the short term on meta-analysis of four studies. For all other LTCs there was either no, or sparse, data with no, or inconsistent, evidence of benefit. Meta-analyses conducted across all the LTCs provided no evidence that unfacilitated EW had any effect on depression at short term (n= 1,563, SMD -0.06, 95% CI -0.29 to 0.17, substantial heterogeneity), or long term (n= 778, SMD-0.04 95% CI -0.18 to 0.10, little heterogeneity) follow up, or on anxiety, physiological or biomarker-based outcomes. One study reported costs, none reported cost-effectiveness, twelve reported resource use; meta-analysis suggested reduced medication use but no impact on health centre visits. Estimated costs of intervention were low, but there was insufficient evidence to judge cost-effectiveness. Realist review findings suggested that facilitated TW is a complex intervention and group interaction contributes to the perception of benefit. It was unclear from the available data who might benefit most from facilitated TW. Limitations Difficulties with developing realist review programme theory meant that mechanisms operating during TW remain obscure. Conclusions Overall there is little evidence to support the effectiveness or cost-effectiveness of unfacilitated expressive writing interventions in people with LTCs. Further research focussed on facilitated TW in people with LTCs could be informative.

Is the supply of long-term debt independent of the term premia? Evidence from Portugal

An important assumption in the statistical analysis of the financial market effects of the central bank’s large scale asset purchase program is that the "long-term debt stock variables were exogenous to term premia". We test this assumption for a small open economy in a currency union over the period 2000M3 to 2015M10, via the determinants of short- term financing relative to long-term financing. Empirical estimations indicate that the maturity composition of debt does not respond to the level of interest rate or to the term structure. These findings suggest a lower adherence to the cost minimization mandate of debt management. However, we find that volatility and relative market size respectively decrease and increase short-term financing relative to long-term financing, while it decreases with an increase in government indebtedness.

Children with Special Health Care Needs: Comparison of the Effects of Home Care Setting, Prescribed Pediatric Extended Care Setting, and Long-Term Care Setting on Child and Family Health Outcomes and Health Care Service Use

Technological advances during the past 30 years have dramatically improved survival rates for children with life-threatening conditions (preterm births, congenital anomalies, disease, or injury) resulting in children with special health care needs (CSHCN), children who have or are at increased risk for a chronic physical, developmental, behavioral, or emotional condition and who require health and related services beyond that required by children generally. There are approximately 10.2 million of these children in the United States or one in five households with a child with special health care needs. Care for these children is limited to home care, medical day care (Prescribed Pediatric Extended Care; P-PEC) or a long term care (LTC) facility. There is very limited research examining health outcomes of CSHCN and their families. The purpose of this research was to compare the effects of home care settings, P-PEC settings, and LTC settings on child health and functioning, family health and function, and health care service use of families with CSHCN. Eighty four CSHCN ages 2 to 21 years having a medically fragile or complex medical condition that required continual monitoring were enrolled with their parents/guardians. Interviews were conducted monthly for five months using the PedsQL TM Generic Core Module for child health and functioning, PedsQL TM Family Impact Module for family health and functioning, and Access to Care from the NS-CSHCN survey for health care services. Descriptive statistics, chi square, and ANCOVA were conducted to determine differences across care settings. Children in the P-PEC settings had a highest health care quality of life (HRQL) overall including physical and psychosocial functioning. Parents/guardians with CSHCN in LTC had the highest HRQL including having time and energy for a social life and employment. Parents/guardians with CSHCN in home care settings had the poorest HRQL including physical and psychosocial functioning with cognitive difficulties, difficulties with worry, communication, and daily activities. They had the fewest hours of employment and the most hours providing direct care for their children. Overall health care service use was the same across the care settings.

Self-care in older people with functional deficit: needs of long-term care.

The group of 65-year-olds is becoming more numerous and with greater needs for health care. So, is necessary the reflection about new models of provision, organization, and allocation of health resources. According to the United Nations Organization, 2015, in 2050 elderly people will reach two million people (20% of the world’s population), what mean that the number of people over 60 years old will exceed a population of young people under 15 years. Parallel to aging, less healthy lifestyles have contributed to the prevalence of chronic diseases, especially cerebrovascular diseases. Hypertension and diabetes mellitus are risk factors and increase predisposition to other diseases. With aging, there is an increased risk for developing chronic, oncological and degenerative diseases, which account for more than 50% of the burden of diseases, with profound implications on independency, use of health care and services.

Experimental and numerical investigation on short and long term performance of macro-synthetic fibre reinforced concrete materials

Fibre Reinforced Concretes are innovative composite materials whose applications are growing considerably nowadays. Being composite materials, their performance depends on the mechanical properties of both components, fibre and matrix and, above all, on the interface. The variables to account for the mechanical characterization of the material, could be proper of the material itself, i.e. fibre and concrete type, or external factors, i.e. environmental conditions. The first part of the research presented is focused on the experimental and numerical characterization of the interface properties and short term response of fibre reinforced concretes with macro-synthetic fibers. The experimental database produced represents the starting point for numerical models calibration and validation with two principal purposes: the calibration of a local constitutive law and calibration and validation of a model predictive of the whole material response. In the perspective of the design of sustainable admixtures, the optimization of the matrix of cement-based fibre reinforced composites is realized with partial substitution of the cement amount. In the second part of the research, the effect of time dependent phenomena on MSFRCs response is studied. An extended experimental campaign of creep tests is performed analysing the effect of time and temperature variations in different loading conditions. On the results achieved, a numerical model able to account for the viscoelastic nature of both concrete and reinforcement, together with the environmental conditions, is calibrated with the LDPM theory. Different type of regression models are also elaborated correlating the mechanical properties investigated, bond strength and residual flexural behaviour, regarding the short term analysis and creep coefficient on time, for the time dependent behaviour, with the variable investigated. The experimental studies carried out emphasize the several aspects influencing the material mechanical performance allowing also the identification of those properties that the numerical approach should consider in order to be reliable.

Essays in Economic Geography and Long-Term Development

This dissertation has two main themes: first, the economic impact of tourism on cities and, secondly, the determinants of European long-run development, with a focus on the pre-Industrial era. The common thread is the attempt to develop economic geography models that incorporate spatial frictions and are liable to be given empirical content. Chapter 1, written in conjunction with G. Alfredo Minerva, provides an empirical analysis of the relationship between tourism and economic activity across Italian municipalities, and lays down the basic elements of an urban theory of tourism in an a-spatial setting. Chapter 2 extends these ideas to a quantitative urban framework to study the economic impact and the welfare consequences of tourism into the city of Venice. The model is given empirical content thanks to a large collection of data at the Census tract level for the Municipality of Venice, and then used to perform counterfactual policty analysis. In chapter 3, with Matteo Santacesaria, we consider a setting where agents are continuously distributed over a two-dimensional heterogeneous geography, and are allowed to do business at a finite set of markets. We study the equilibrium partition of the economic space into a collection of mutually-exclusive market areas, and provide condition for this equilibrium partition to exist and to be unique. Finally, chapter 4 "The rise of (urban) Europe: a Quantitative-Spatial analysis", co-authored with Matteo Cervellati and Alex Lehner, sets up a quantitative economic geography model to understand the roots of the Industrial Revolution, in an attempt to match the evolution of the European urban network, and the corresponding city-size distribution, over the period A.D. 1000-1850. It highlights the importance of agricultural trade across cities for the emergence of large manufacturing hubs.

Analysis of the long-term subsidence in the urban area of Bologna

Land subsidence in urban areas represents a widespread geological hazard and a pressing challenge for modern society. This research focuses on the subsidence process affecting the city of Bologna (Italy). Since the 1960s, Bologna has experienced ground deformation due to aquifers overexploitation that peaked during the 1970s with rates of 10 cm/year. Despite a general reduction in these rates over the subsequent decades, thanks to groundwater regulations policies, recent data underscore a substantial subsidence resurgence. To reconstruct the subsurface stratigraphic architecture of Bologna’s urban area and generate a 3D geological model, a multidisciplinary approach centred on a stratigraphic analysis relying on the lithofacies criterion was adopted. The convergence of the analyses within this framework resulted in partitioning the study area into three geological domains exhibiting unique morphological features and depositional stacking patterns. Subsequently, since long-term data are crucial for a comprehensive understanding of ongoing subsidence, a methodology was developed to generate cumulative ground displacement time series and maps by integrating ground-based and remotely-sensed measurements. While the reconstructed long-term subsidence field consistently aligns with the primary geological variations summarised in the 3D model, the generated cumulative displacement curves systematically match pluriannual trends observed in groundwater level and pumping monitoring data. Lastly, to evaluate the expression of the observed relationships from a geotechnical perspective, a series of one-dimensional subsidence calculations were conducted considering the mechanical properties of the investigated deposits and piezometric data. These analyses provided valuable insight into the overall mechanical behaviour of the existing soils, as well as the post-pumping groundwater level and pore pressure distributions, consistent with field data. The methodological approach employed enables a comprehensive analysis of land subsidence in urban areas, allowing the exploration of individual factors governing the deformation process and their interactions, even within complex stratigraphic and hydrogeological environments such as Bologna’s urban area.

Mechanisms Predisposing Penile Fracture And Long-term Outcomes On Erectile And Voiding Functions.

Purpose. To determine the mechanisms predisposing penile fracture as well as the rate of long-term penile deformity and erectile and voiding functions. Methods. All fractures were repaired on an emergency basis via subcoronal incision and absorbable suture with simultaneous repair of eventual urethral lesion. Patients' status before fracture and voiding and erectile functions at long term were assessed by periodic follow-up and phone call. Detailed history included cause, symptoms, and single-question self-report of erectile and voiding functions. Results. Among the 44 suspicious cases, 42 (95.4%) were confirmed, mean age was 34.5 years (range: 18-60), mean follow-up 59.3 months (range 9-155). Half presented the classical triad of audible crack, detumescence, and pain. Heterosexual intercourse was the most common cause (28 patients, 66.7%), followed by penile manipulation (6 patients, 14.3%), and homosexual intercourse (4 patients, 9.5%). Woman on top was the most common heterosexual position (n = 14, 50%), followed by doggy style (n = 8, 28.6%). Four patients (9.5%) maintained the cause unclear. Six (14.3%) patients had urethral injury and two (4.8%) had erectile dysfunction, treated by penile prosthesis and PDE-5i. No patient showed urethral fistula, voiding deterioration, penile nodule/curve or pain. Conclusions. Woman on top was the potentially riskiest sexual position (50%). Immediate surgical treatment warrants long-term very low morbidity.

Up-regulation Of Dnam-1 And Nkp30, Associated With Improvement Of Nk Cells Activation After Long-term Culture Of Mononuclear Cells From Patients With Ovarian Neoplasia.

This study aimed at evaluating the functional activation and activating receptors expression on resting, short- and long-term NK and NK-like T cells from blood of ovarian neoplasia patients. Blood from patients with adnexal benign alterations (n = 10) and ovarian cancer (grade I-IV n = 14) were collected after signed consent. Effector cells activation was evaluated by the expression of the CD107a molecule. Short-term culture was conducted overnight with IL-2 and long-term culture for 21 days, by a method designed to expand CD56(+) lymphocytes. Short-term culture significantly increased NK cells activation compared to resting NK cells (p<0.05), however, the long-term procedure supported an even higher increase (p<0.001). Resting NK-like T cells showed poor activation, which was not altered by the culture procedures. The long-term culture effectively increased the expression of the activating receptors on NK and NK-like T cells, either by increasing the number of cells expressing a given receptor and/or by up-regulating their expression intensity. As a conclusion, the long-term culture system employed, resulted in a high number of functional NK cells. The culture system was particularly efficient on the up-regulation of NKp30 and DNAM-1 receptors on NK cells.

Genetic Predictors Of Long-term Response To Growth Hormone (gh) Therapy In Children With Gh Deficiency And Turner Syndrome: The Influence Of A Socs2 Polymorphism.

There is great interindividual variability in the response to GH therapy. Ascertaining genetic factors can improve the accuracy of growth response predictions. Suppressor of cytokine signaling (SOCS)-2 is an intracellular negative regulator of GH receptor (GHR) signaling. The objective of the study was to assess the influence of a SOCS2 polymorphism (rs3782415) and its interactive effect with GHR exon 3 and -202 A/C IGFBP3 (rs2854744) polymorphisms on adult height of patients treated with recombinant human GH (rhGH). Genotypes were correlated with adult height data of 65 Turner syndrome (TS) and 47 GH deficiency (GHD) patients treated with rhGH, by multiple linear regressions. Generalized multifactor dimensionality reduction was used to evaluate gene-gene interactions. Baseline clinical data were indistinguishable among patients with different genotypes. Adult height SD scores of patients with at least one SOCS2 single-nucleotide polymorphism rs3782415-C were 0.7 higher than those homozygous for the T allele (P < .001). SOCS2 (P = .003), GHR-exon 3 (P= .016) and -202 A/C IGFBP3 (P = .013) polymorphisms, together with clinical factors accounted for 58% of the variability in adult height and 82% of the total height SD score gain. Patients harboring any two negative genotypes in these three different loci (homozygosity for SOCS2 T allele; the GHR exon 3 full-length allele and/or the -202C-IGFBP3 allele) were more likely to achieve an adult height at the lower quartile (odds ratio of 13.3; 95% confidence interval of 3.2-54.2, P = .0001). The SOCS2 polymorphism (rs3782415) has an influence on the adult height of children with TS and GHD after long-term rhGH therapy. Polymorphisms located in GHR, IGFBP3, and SOCS2 loci have an influence on the growth outcomes of TS and GHD patients treated with rhGH. The use of these genetic markers could identify among rhGH-treated patients those who are genetically predisposed to have less favorable outcomes.

Long-term Postoperative Atrophy Of Contralateral Hippocampus And Cognitive Function In Unilateral Refractory Mtle With Unilateral Hippocampal Sclerosis.

This study aimed to evaluate long-term atrophy in contralateral hippocampal volume after surgery for unilateral MTLE, as well as the cognitive outcome for patients submitted to either selective transsylvian amygdalohippocampectomy (SelAH) or anterior temporal lobe resection (ATL). We performed a longitudinal study of 47 patients with MRI signs of unilateral hippocampal sclerosis (23 patients with right-sided hippocampal sclerosis) who underwent surgical treatment for MTLE. They underwent preoperative/postoperative high-resolution MRI as well as neuropsychological assessment for memory and estimated IQ. To investigate possible changes in the contralateral hippocampus of patients, we included 28 controls who underwent two MRIs at long-term intervals. The volumetry using preoperative MRI showed significant hippocampal atrophy ipsilateral to the side of surgery when compared with controls (p<0.0001) but no differences in contralateral hippocampal volumes. The mean postoperative follow-up was 8.7 years (± 2.5 SD; median=8.0). Our patients were classified as Engel I (80%), Engel II (18.2%), and Engel III (1.8%). We observed a small but significant reduction in the contralateral hippocampus of patients but no volume changes in controls. Most of the patients presented small declines in both estimated IQ and memory, which were more pronounced in patients with left TLE and in those with persistent seizures. Different surgical approaches did not impose differences in seizure control or in cognitive outcome. We observed small declines in cognitive scores with most of these patients, which were worse in patients with left-sided resection and in those who continued to suffer from postoperative seizures. We also demonstrated that manual volumetry can reveal a reduction in volume in the contralateral hippocampus, although this change was mild and could not be detected by visual analysis. These new findings suggest that dynamic processes continue to act after the removal of the hippocampus, and further studies with larger groups may help in understanding the underlying mechanisms.