Beyond point forecasting : evaluation of alternative prediction intervals for tourist arrivals

This paper evaluates the performances of prediction intervals generated from alternative time series models, in the context of tourism forecasting. The forecasting methods considered include the autoregressive (AR) model, the AR model using the bias-corrected bootstrap, seasonal ARIMA models, innovations state space models for exponential smoothing, and Harvey’s structural time series models. We use thirteen monthly time series for the number of tourist arrivals to Hong Kong and Australia. The mean coverage rates and widths of the alternative prediction intervals are evaluated in an empirical setting. It is found that all models produce satisfactory prediction intervals, except for the autoregressive model. In particular, those based on the biascorrected bootstrap perform best in general, providing tight intervals with accurate coverage rates, especially when the forecast horizon is long.

Managing clients’ expectations at the outset of online Cognitive Behavioural Therapy (CBT) for depression

Background Engaging clients in psychotherapy by managing their expectations is important for therapeutic success. Initial moments in first sessions of therapy are thought to afford an opportunity to establish a shared understanding of how therapy will proceed. However there is little evidence from analysis of actual sessions of therapy to support this. Objective This study utilised recordings to examine how therapists manage clients’ expectations during the first two sessions of online Cognitive Behavioural Therapy (CBT). Methods Expectation management was investigated through conversation analysis of sessions from 176 client-therapist dyads involved in online CBT. The primary focus of analysis was expectation management during the initial moments of first sessions, with a secondary focus on expectations at subsequent points. Analysis Clients’ expectations for therapy were most commonly managed during the initial moments of first sessions of therapy. At this point, most therapists either outlined the tasks of the first and subsequent sessions (n=36), or the first session only (n=108). On other occasions (n = 32), no attempt was made to manage clients’ expectations by outlining what would happen in therapy. Observations of the interactional consequences of such an absence suggest clients may struggle to engage with the therapeutic process in the absence of appropriate expectation management by therapists. Conclusion Clients may more readily engage from the outset of therapy when provided with an explanation that manages their expectation of what is involved. Therapists can accomplish this by projecting how therapy will proceed, particularly beyond the initial session.

Feeling a little Blue? : Boofheads, bodies, and beaches

Pat Grant’s graphic novel Blue (2012) tells two stories about the impact of a newly migrant group on a small coastal Australian town. The wider story explores the wholesale effects of a previously unknown population joining an existing, culturally homogenous community. These broad social images are used to contextualise the more immediate story of three youths who are disenfranchised within the pre-existing community, but who can claim social enfranchisement by alienating the new members of the community. That the migrant population is depicted literally as aliens emphasises Blue’s participation in a wider conversation about citizenship and empathy. However, Blue does not necessarily seek to provoke a particular emotional response in its readers. Rather, in following three characters who lack what Nussbaum calls “narrative imagination” in their pursuit of good surfing or visceral entertainment—of beaches or bodies—Blue explores the means and consequences of refusing intersubjective affect. This is most powerfully rendered by the main characters’ ultimate avoidance of, and fictions about, a dead body they have wagged school to see. At the very moment of a person becoming a true object—a corpse—the meaning of objectifying people is revealed; the young protagonists seem to recognise this fact, and thus retreat from the affective scene which nonetheless informs Blue as a whole.

An application of the Driver Behaviour Questionnaire in a large Australian organisational fleeting setting : can it predict crashes and demerit point loss?

This study reports on the utilisation of the Manchester Driver Behaviour Questionnaire (DBQ) to examine the self-reported driving behaviours of a large sample of Australian fleet drivers (N = 3414). Surveys were completed by employees before they commenced a one day safety workshop intervention. Factor analysis techniques identified a three factor solution similar to previous research, which was comprised of: (a) errors, (b) highway-code violations and (c) aggressive driving violations. Two items traditionally related with highway-code violations were found to be associated with aggressive driving behaviours among the current sample. Multivariate analyses revealed that exposure to the road, errors and self-reported offences predicted crashes at work in the last 12 months, while gender, highway violations and crashes predicted offences incurred while at work. Importantly, those who received more fines at work were at an increased risk of crashing the work vehicle. However, overall, the DBQ demonstrated limited efficacy at predicting these two outcomes. This paper outlines the major findings of the study in regards to identifying and predicting aberrant driving behaviours and also highlights implications regarding the future utilisation of the DBQ within fleet settings.

Further investigations of framing effects on cooperative choices in a provision point mechanism

We investigate whether framing effects of voluntary contributions are significant in a provision point mechanism. Our results show that framing significantly affects individuals of the same type: cooperative individuals appear to be more cooperative in the public bads game than in the public goods game, whereas individualistic subjects appear to be less cooperative in the public bads game than in the public goods game. At the aggregate level of pooling all individuals, the data suggests that framing effects are negligible, which is in contrast with the established result.

Little boxes : changing perceptions and including young people in socially sustainable participatory planning

In recent years, a great deal has been written about the benefits and ethics of including young people in participative decision-making. This has been accompanied by a burgeoning interest in including their views in participatory planning exercises that has not always been realised in practice. Drawing on a detailed analysis of the perceptions of adults and young people involved in a participatory planning exercise on Australia‟s Gold Coast, we believe that there are two major hurdles to the „full‟ engagement of young people that are in some respects two sides of the same coin: the sometimes paternalistic perceptions and often dismissive attitude that many adults have towards the participation of young people; and the perceptions that young people may have of themselves and their subordinate place in an adult-dominated planning environment. Together, such views act to place limitations on the participation of young people because they set up unrealistic expectations for both adult and younger participants in terms of how and why young people participate, and what this participation should „look and feel‟ like. In this paper, through the metaphor of boxes, we propose a number of issues that should be addressed when involving young people in participatory planning processes to ensure the most from their participation for all involved.

Bayesian hierarchical models for analysing spatial point-based data at a grid level: A comparison of approaches

Spatial data are now prevalent in a wide range of fields including environmental and health science. This has led to the development of a range of approaches for analysing patterns in these data. In this paper, we compare several Bayesian hierarchical models for analysing point-based data based on the discretization of the study region, resulting in grid-based spatial data. The approaches considered include two parametric models and a semiparametric model. We highlight the methodology and computation for each approach. Two simulation studies are undertaken to compare the performance of these models for various structures of simulated point-based data which resemble environmental data. A case study of a real dataset is also conducted to demonstrate a practical application of the modelling approaches. Goodness-of-fit statistics are computed to compare estimates of the intensity functions. The deviance information criterion is also considered as an alternative model evaluation criterion. The results suggest that the adaptive Gaussian Markov random field model performs well for highly sparse point-based data where there are large variations or clustering across the space; whereas the discretized log Gaussian Cox process produces good fit in dense and clustered point-based data. One should generally consider the nature and structure of the point-based data in order to choose the appropriate method in modelling a discretized spatial point-based data.

Scene signatures : localised and point-less features for localisation

This paper is about localising across extreme lighting and weather conditions. We depart from the traditional point-feature-based approach as matching under dramatic appearance changes is a brittle and hard thing. Point feature detectors are fixed and rigid procedures which pass over an image examining small, low-level structure such as corners or blobs. They apply the same criteria applied all images of all places. This paper takes a contrary view and asks what is possible if instead we learn a bespoke detector for every place. Our localisation task then turns into curating a large bank of spatially indexed detectors and we show that this yields vastly superior performance in terms of robustness in exchange for a reduced but tolerable metric precision. We present an unsupervised system that produces broad-region detectors for distinctive visual elements, called scene signatures, which can be associated across almost all appearance changes. We show, using 21km of data collected over a period of 3 months, that our system is capable of producing metric localisation estimates from night-to-day or summer-to-winter conditions.

Including or excluding conflicts of interest among expert peer reviewers had little impact on funding success, a case study from Australia

Competition for research funding is intense and the opinions of an expert peer reviewer can mean the difference between success and failure in securing funding. The allocation of expert peer reviewers is therefore vitally important and funding agencies strive to avoid using reviewers who have real or perceived conflicts of interest. This article examines the impact of including or excluding peer reviewers based on their conflicts of interest, and the final ranking of funding proposals. Two 7-person review panels assessed a sample of National Health and Medical Research Council (NHMRC) of Australia proposals in Basic Science or Public Health. Using a pre-post comparison, the proposals were first scored after the exclusion of reviewers with a high or medium conflict, and re-scored after the return of reviewers with medium conflicts. The main outcome measures are the agreements in ranks and funding success before and after excluding the medium conflicts. Including medium conflicts of interest had little impact on the ranks or funding success. The Bland–Altman 95% limits of agreement were ± 3.3 ranks and ± 3.4 ranks in the two panels which both assessed 36 proposals. Overall there were three proposals (4%) that had a reversed funding outcome after including medium conflicts. Relaxing the conflict of interest rules would increase the number of expert reviewers included in the panel discussions which could increase the quality of peer review and make it easier to find reviewers.

Using the Driver Behaviour Questionnaire to predict crashes and demerit point loss : does it get better with larger sample sizes?

The Driver Behaviour Questionnaire (DBQ) continues to be the most widely utilised self-report scale globally to assess crash risk and aberrant driving behaviours among motorists. However, the scale also attracts criticism regarding its perceived limited ability to accurately identify those most at risk of crash involvement. This study reports on the utilisation of the DBQ to examine the self-reported driving behaviours (and crash outcomes) of drivers in three separate Australian fleet samples (N = 443, N = 3414, & N = 4792), and whether combining the samples increases the tool’s predictive ability. Either on-line or paper versions of the questionnaire were completed by fleet employees in three organisations. Factor analytic techniques identified either three or four factor solutions (in each of the separate studies) and the combined sample produced expected factors of: (a) errors, (b) highway-code violations and (c) aggressive driving violations. Highway code violations (and mean scores) were comparable across the studies. However, across the three samples, multivariate analyses revealed that exposure to the road was the best predictor of crash involvement at work, rather than DBQ constructs. Furthermore, combining the scores to produce a sample of 8649 drivers did not improve the predictive ability of the tool for identifying crashes (e.g., 0.4% correctly identified) or for demerit point loss (0.3%). The paper outlines the major findings of this comparative sample study in regards to utilising self-report measurement tools to identify “at risk” drivers as well as the application of such data to future research endeavours.

Improving national hospice/palliative care service symptom outcomes systematically through point-of-care data collection, structured feedback and benchmarking

PURPOSE Every health care sector including hospice/palliative care needs to systematically improve services using patient-defined outcomes. Data from the national Australian Palliative Care Outcomes Collaboration aims to define whether hospice/palliative care patients' outcomes and the consistency of these outcomes have improved in the last 3 years. METHODS Data were analysed by clinical phase (stable, unstable, deteriorating, terminal). Patient-level data included the Symptom Assessment Scale and the Palliative Care Problem Severity Score. Nationally collected point-of-care data were anchored for the period July-December 2008 and subsequently compared to this baseline in six 6-month reporting cycles for all services that submitted data in every time period (n = 30) using individual longitudinal multi-level random coefficient models. RESULTS Data were analysed for 19,747 patients (46 % female; 85 % cancer; 27,928 episodes of care; 65,463 phases). There were significant improvements across all domains (symptom control, family care, psychological and spiritual care) except pain. Simultaneously, the interquartile ranges decreased, jointly indicating that better and more consistent patient outcomes were being achieved. CONCLUSION These are the first national hospice/palliative care symptom control performance data to demonstrate improvements in clinical outcomes at a service level as a result of routine data collection and systematic feedback.

The ethics, aesthetics and practical politics of ownership in co-creative media

What is ‘best practice’ when it comes to managing intellectual property rights in participatory media content? As commercial media and entertainment business models have increasingly come to rely upon the networked productivity of end-users (Banks and Humphreys 2008) this question has been framed as a problem of creative labour made all the more precarious by changing employment patterns and work cultures of knowledge-intensive societies and globalising economies (Banks, Gill and Taylor 2014). This paper considers how the problems of ownership are addressed in non-commercial, community-based arts and media contexts. Problems of labour are also manifest in these contexts (for example, reliance on volunteer labour and uncertain economic reward for creative excellence). Nonetheless, managing intellectual property rights in collaborative creative works that are created in community media and arts contexts is no less challenging or complex than in commercial contexts. This paper takes as its focus a particular participatory media practice known as ‘digital storytelling’. The digital storytelling method, formalised by the Centre for Digital Storytelling (CDS) from the mid-1990s, has been internationally adopted and adapted for use in an open-ended variety of community arts, education, health and allied services settings (Hartley and McWilliam 2009; Lambert 2013; Lundby 2008; Thumin 2012). It provides a useful point of departure for thinking about a range of collaborative media production practices that seek to address participation ‘gaps’ (Jenkins 2006). However the outputs of these activities, including digital stories, cannot be fully understood or accurately described as user-generated content. For this reason, digital storytelling is taken here to belong to a category of participatory media activity that has been described as ‘co-creative’ media (Spurgeon 2013) in order to improve understanding of the conditions of mediated and mediatized participation (Couldry 2008). This paper reports on a survey of the actual copyrighting practices of cultural institutions and community-based media arts practitioners that work with digital storytelling and similar participatory content creation methods. This survey finds that although there is a preference for Creative Commons licensing a great variety of approaches are taken to managing intellectual property rights in co-creative media. These range from the use of Creative Commons licences (for example, Lambert 2013, p.193) to retention of full copyrights by storytellers, to retention of certain rights by facilitating organisations (for example, broadcast rights by community radio stations and public service broadcasters), and a range of other shared rights arrangements between professional creative practitioners, the individual storytellers and communities with which they collaborate, media outlets, exhibitors and funders. This paper also considers how aesthetic and ethical considerations shape responses to questions of intellectual property rights in community media arts contexts. For example, embedded in the CDS digital storytelling method is ‘a critique of power and the numerous ways that rank is unconsciously expressed in engagements between classes, races and gender’ (Lambert 117). The CDS method privileges the interests of the storyteller and, through a transformative workshop process, aims to generate original individual stories that, in turn, reflect self-awareness of ‘how much the way we live is scripted by history, by social and cultural norms, by our own unique journey through a contradictory, and at times hostile, world’ (Lambert 118). Such a critical approach is characteristic of co-creative media practices. It extends to a heightened awareness of the risks of ‘story theft’ and the challenges of ownership and informs ideas of ‘best practice’ amongst creative practitioners, teaching artists and community media producers, along with commitments to achieving equitable solutions for all participants in co-creative media practice (for example, Lyons-Reid and Kuddell nd.). Yet, there is surprisingly little written about the challenges of managing intellectual property produced in co-creative media activities. A dialogic sense of ownership in stories has been identified as an indicator of successful digital storytelling practice (Hayes and Matusov 2005) and is helpful to grounding the more abstract claims of empowerment for social participation that are associated with co-creative methods. Contrary to the ‘change from below’ philosophy that underpins much thinking about co-creative media, however, discussions of intellectual property usually focus on how methods such as digital storytelling contribute to the formation of copyright law-compliant subjects, particularly when used in educational settings (for example, Ohler nd.). This also exposes the reliance of co-creative methods on the creative assets storytellers (rather than on the copyrighted materials of the media cultures of storytellers) as a pragmatic response to the constraints that intellectual property right laws impose on the entire category of participatory media. At the level of practical politics, it also becomes apparent that co-creative media practitioners and storytellers located in copyright jurisdictions governed by ‘fair use’ principles have much greater creative flexibility than those located in jurisdictions governed by ‘fair dealing’ principles.

Knowledge management challenges in small-and medium-sized enterprises

Background & Research Focus Managing knowledge for innovation and organisational benefit has been extensively investigated in studies of large firms (Smith, Collins & Clark, 2005; Zucker, et al., 2007) and to a large extent there is limited research into studies of small- and medium- sized enterprises (SMEs). There are some investigations in knowledge management research on SMEs, but what remains to be seen in particular is the question of where are the potential challenges for managing knowledge more effectively within these firms? Effective knowledge management (KM) processes and systems lead to improved performance in pursuing distinct capabilities that contribute to firm-level innovation (Nassim 2009; Zucker et al. 2007; Verona and Ravasi 2003). Managing internal and external knowledge in a way that links it closely to the innovation process can assist the creation and implementation of new products and services. KM is particularly important in knowledge intensive firms where the knowledge requirements are highly specialized, diverse and often emergent. However, to a large extent the KM processes of small firms that are often the source of new knowledge and an important element of the value networks of larger companies have not been closely studied. To address this gap which is of increasing importance with the growing number of small firms, we need to further investigate knowledge management processes and the ways that firms find, capture, apply and integrate knowledge from multiple sources for their innovation process. This study builds on the previous literature and applies existing frameworks and takes the process and activity view of knowledge management as a starting point of departure (see among others Kraaijenbrink, Wijnhoven & Groen, 2007; Enberg, Lindkvist, & Tell, 2006; Lu, Wang & Mao, 2007). In this paper, it is attempted to develop a better understanding of the challenges of knowledge management within the innovation process in small knowledge-oriented firms. The paper aims to explore knowledge management processes and practices in firms that are engaged in the new product/service development programs. Consistent with the exploratory character of the study, the research question is: How is knowledge integrated, sourced and recombined from internal and external sources for innovation and new product development? Research Method The research took an exploratory case study approach and developed a theoretical framework to investigate the knowledge situation of knowledge-intensive firms. Equipped with the conceptual foundation, the research adopted a multiple case study method investigating four diverse Australian knowledge-intensive firms from IT, biotechnology, nanotechnology and biochemistry industries. The multiple case study method allowed us to document in some depth the knowledge management experience of the theses firms. Case study data were collected through a review of company published data and semi-structured interviews with managers using an interview guide to ensure uniform coverage of the research themes. This interview guide was developed following development of the framework and a review of the methodologies and issues covered by similar studies in other countries and used some questions common to these studies. It was framed to gather data around knowledge management activity within the business, focusing on the identification, acquisition and utilisation of knowledge, but collecting a range of information about subject as well. The focus of the case studies was on the use of external and internal knowledge to support their knowledge intensive products and services. Key Findings Firstly a conceptual and strategic knowledge management framework has been developed. The knowledge determinants are related to the nature of knowledge, organisational context, and mechanism of the linkages between internal and external knowledge. Overall, a number of key observations derived from this study, which demonstrated the challenges of managing knowledge and how important KM is as a management tool for innovation process in knowledge-oriented firms. To summarise, findings suggest that knowledge management process in these firms is very much project focused and not embedded within the overall organisational routines and mainly based on ad hoc and informal processes. Our findings highlighted lack of formal knowledge management process within our sampled firms. This point to the need for more specialised capabilities in knowledge management for these firms. We observed a need for an effective knowledge transfer support system which is required to facilitate knowledge sharing and particularly capturing and transferring tacit knowledge from one team members to another. In sum, our findings indicate that building effective and adaptive IT systems to manage and share knowledge in the firm is one of the biggest challenges for these small firms. Also, there is little explicit strategy in small knowledge-intensive firms that is targeted at systematic KM either at the strategic or operational level. Therefore, a strategic approach to managing knowledge for innovation as well as leadership and management are essential to achieving effective KM. In particular, research findings demonstrate that gathering tacit knowledge, internal and external to the organization, and applying processes to ensure the availability of knowledge for innovation teams, drives down the risks and cost of innovation. KM activities and tools, such as KM systems, environmental scanning, benchmarking, intranets, firm-wide databases and communities of practice to acquire knowledge and to make it accessible, were elements of KM. Practical Implications The case study method that used in this study provides practical insight into the knowledge management process within Australian knowledge-intensive firms. It also provides useful lessons which can be used by other firms in managing the knowledge more effectively in the innovation process. The findings would be helpful for small firms that may be searching for a practical method for managing and integrating their specialised knowledge. Using the results of this exploratory study and to address the challenges of knowledge management, this study proposes five practices that are discussed in the paper for managing knowledge more efficiently to improve innovation: (1) Knowledge-based firms must be strategic in knowledge management processes for innovation, (2) Leadership and management should encourage various practices for knowledge management, (3) Capturing and sharing tacit knowledge is critical and should be managed, (4)Team knowledge integration practices should be developed, (5) Knowledge management and integration through communication networks, and technology systems should be encouraged and strengthen. In sum, the main managerial contribution of the paper is the recognition of knowledge determinants and processes, and their effects on the effective knowledge management within firm. This may serve as a useful benchmark in the strategic planning of the firm as it utilises new and specialised knowledge.