Alternative ways to estimate change points in multinomial sequences. An application to an authorship attribution problem

The statistical analysis of literary style is the part of stylometry that compares measurable characteristics in a text that are rarely controlled by the author, with those in other texts. When the goal is to settle authorship questions, these characteristics should relate to the author’s style and not to the genre, epoch or editor, and they should be such that their variation between authors is larger than the variation within comparable texts from the same author. For an overview of the literature on stylometry and some of the techniques involved, see for example Mosteller and Wallace (1964, 82), Herdan (1964), Morton (1978), Holmes (1985), Oakes (1998) or Lebart, Salem and Berry (1998). Tirant lo Blanc, a chivalry book, is the main work in catalan literature and it was hailed to be “the best book of its kind in the world” by Cervantes in Don Quixote. Considered by writters like Vargas Llosa or Damaso Alonso to be the first modern novel in Europe, it has been translated several times into Spanish, Italian and French, with modern English translations by Rosenthal (1996) and La Fontaine (1993). The main body of this book was written between 1460 and 1465, but it was not printed until 1490. There is an intense and long lasting debate around its authorship sprouting from its first edition, where its introduction states that the whole book is the work of Martorell (1413?-1468), while at the end it is stated that the last one fourth of the book is by Galba (?-1490), after the death of Martorell. Some of the authors that support the theory of single authorship are Riquer (1990), Chiner (1993) and Badia (1993), while some of those supporting the double authorship are Riquer (1947), Coromines (1956) and Ferrando (1995). For an overview of this debate, see Riquer (1990). Neither of the two candidate authors left any text comparable to the one under study, and therefore discriminant analysis can not be used to help classify chapters by author. By using sample texts encompassing about ten percent of the book, and looking at word length and at the use of 44 conjunctions, prepositions and articles, Ginebra and Cabos (1998) detect heterogeneities that might indicate the existence of two authors. By analyzing the diversity of the vocabulary, Riba and Ginebra (2000) estimates that stylistic boundary to be near chapter 383. Following the lead of the extensive literature, this paper looks into word length, the use of the most frequent words and into the use of vowels in each chapter of the book. Given that the features selected are categorical, that leads to three contingency tables of ordered rows and therefore to three sequences of multinomial observations. Section 2 explores these sequences graphically, observing a clear shift in their distribution. Section 3 describes the problem of the estimation of a suden change-point in those sequences, in the following sections we propose various ways to estimate change-points in multinomial sequences; the method in section 4 involves fitting models for polytomous data, the one in Section 5 fits gamma models onto the sequence of Chi-square distances between each row profiles and the average profile, the one in Section 6 fits models onto the sequence of values taken by the first component of the correspondence analysis as well as onto sequences of other summary measures like the average word length. In Section 7 we fit models onto the marginal binomial sequences to identify the features that distinguish the chapters before and after that boundary. Most methods rely heavily on the use of generalized linear models

Los conceptos de salud financiera, riesgo y epidemiología en los estados financieros de las compañías del sector de extracción de petróleo crudo y gas natural en Colombia

El presente proyecto tiene como objeto identificar cuáles son los conceptos de salud, enfermedad, epidemiología y riesgo aplicables a las empresas del sector de extracción de petróleo y gas natural en Colombia. Dado, el bajo nivel de predicción de los análisis financieros tradicionales y su insuficiencia, en términos de inversión y toma de decisiones a largo plazo, además de no considerar variables como el riesgo y las expectativas de futuro, surge la necesidad de abordar diferentes perspectivas y modelos integradores. Esta apreciación es pertinente dentro del sector de extracción de petróleo y gas natural, debido a la creciente inversión extranjera que ha reportado, US$2.862 millones en el 2010, cifra mayor a diez veces su valor en el año 2003. Así pues, se podrían desarrollar modelos multi-dimensional, con base en los conceptos de salud financiera, epidemiológicos y estadísticos. El termino de salud y su adopción en el sector empresarial, resulta útil y mantiene una coherencia conceptual, evidenciando una presencia de diferentes subsistemas o factores interactuantes e interconectados. Es necesario mencionar también, que un modelo multidimensional (multi-stage) debe tener en cuenta el riesgo y el análisis epidemiológico ha demostrado ser útil al momento de determinarlo e integrarlo en el sistema junto a otros conceptos, como la razón de riesgo y riesgo relativo. Esto se analizará mediante un estudio teórico-conceptual, que complementa un estudio previo, para contribuir al proyecto de finanzas corporativas de la línea de investigación en Gerencia.

An analysis of the management of a public sector project: a systems-based case study

The management of a public sector project is analysed using a model developed from systems theory. Linear responsibility analysis is used to identify the primary and key decision structure of the project and to generate quantitative data regarding differentiation and integration of the operating system, the managing system and the client/project team. The environmental context of the project is identified. Conclusions are drawn regarding the project organization structure's ability to cope with the prevailing environmental conditions. It is found that the complexity of the managing system imposed on the project was unable to achieve this and created serious deficiencies in the outcome of the project.

Organizational analysis of building projects

The principles of organization theory are applied to the organization of construction projects. This is done by proposing a framework for modelling the whole process of building procurement. This consists of a framework for describing the environments within which construction projects take place. This is followed by the development of a series of hypotheses about the organizational structure of construction projects. Four case studies are undertaken, and the extent to which their organizational structure matches the model is compared to the level of success achieved by each project. To this end there is a systematic method for evaluating the success of building project organizations, because any conclusions about the adequacy of a particular organization must be related to the degree of success achieved by that organization. In order to test these hypotheses, a mapping technique is developed. The technique offered is a development of a technique known as Linear Responsibility Analysis, and is called "3R analysis" as it deals with roles, responsibilities and relationships. The analysis of the case studies shows that they tended to suffer due to inappropriate organizational structure. One of the prevailing problems of public sector organization is that organizational structures are inadequately defined, and too cumbersome to respond to environmental demands on the project. The projects tended to be organized as rigid hierarchies, particularly at decision points, when what was required was a more flexible, dynamic and responsive organization. The study concludes with a series of recommendations; including suggestions for increasing the responsiveness of construction project organizations, and reducing the lead-in times for the inception periods.

Synthesis of heterosulfamates. Search for structure-taste relationships

Thirty one new sodium heterosulfamates, RNHSO3Na, where the R portion contains mainly thiazole, benzothiazole, thiadiazole and pyridine ring structures, have been synthesized and their taste portfolios have been assessed. A database of 132 heterosulfamates ( both open-chain and cyclic) has been formed by combining these new compounds with an existing set of 101 heterosulfamates which were previously synthesized and for which taste data are available. Simple descriptors have been obtained using (i) measurements with Corey-Pauling-Koltun (CPK) space- filling models giving x, y and z dimensions and a volume VCPK, (ii) calculated first order molecular connectivities ((1)chi(v)) and (iii) the calculated Spartan program parameters to obtain HOMO, LUMO energies, the solvation energy E-solv and V-SPART AN. The techniques of linear (LDA) and quadratic (QDA) discriminant analysis and Tree analysis have then been employed to develop structure-taste relationships (SARs) that classify the sweet (S) and non-sweet (N) compounds into separate categories. In the LDA analysis 70% of the compounds were correctly classified ( this compares with 65% when the smaller data set of 101 compounds was used) and in the QDA analysis 68% were correctly classified ( compared to 80% previously). TheTree analysis correctly classified 81% ( compared to 86% previously). An alternative Tree analysis derived using the Cerius2 program and a set of physicochemical descriptors correctly classified only 54% of the compounds.

Morphometric analysis and taxonomic revision of the Vriesea paraibica complex (Bromeliaceae)

The species related to Vriesea paraibica (Bromeliaceae, Tillandsioideae) have controversial taxonomic limits. For several decades, this group has been identified in herbarium collections as V. x morreniana, an artificial hybrid that does not grow in natural habitats. The aim of this study was to assess the morphological variation in the V. paraibica complex through morphometric analyses of natural populations. Two sets of analyses were performed: the first involved six natural populations (G1) and the second was carried out on taxa that emerged from the first analysis, but using material from herbarium collections (G2). Univariate ANOVA was used, as well as discriminant analysis of 16 morphometric variables in G1 and 18 in G2. The results of the analyses of the two groups were similar and led to the selection of diagnostic traits of four species. Lengths of the lower and median floral bracts were significant for the separation of red and yellow floral bracts. Vriesea paraibica and V. interrogatoria have red bracts; these two species are differentiated by the widths of the lower and median portions of the inflorescence and by scape length. These structures are larger in the former and smaller in the latter. Of the species with yellow floral bracts, V. eltoniana is distinguished by longer leaf blades and scapes and V. flava is characterized by its shorter sepal lengths. (C) 2009 The Linnean Society of London, Botanical Journal of the Linnean Society, 2009, 159, 163-181.

Multiscale Curvature Analysis of Asphaltic Aggregate Particles

A new method for characterization and analysis of asphaltic mixtures aggregate particles is reported. By relying on multiscale representation of the particles, curvature estimation, and discriminant analysis for optimal separation of the categories of mixtures, a particularly effective and comprehensive methodology is obtained. The potential of the methodology is illustrated with respect to three important types of particles used in asphaltic mixtures, namely basalt, gabbro, and gravel. The obtained results show that gravel particles are markedly distinct from the other two types of particles, with the gabbro category resulting with intermediate geometrical properties. The importance of each considered measurement in the discrimination between the three categories of particles was also quantified in terms of the adopted discriminant analysis.

Imagens do terceiro setor: um estudo com pais e responsáveis financeiros das organizações educacionais

The present report is the result of an applied research in the educational entities of the third sector, aiming to demonstrate whether the financial influences the perception of users on the image of those entities. For both used the prospect of integrative marketing relationship adapting to and developing a set of indicators which bore the measurement of images from the model of Machado et al (2005) and Kotler and Fox (1994). The sample included a total of 187 parents and financial responsibility in 03 (three) institutions of education in Natal / RN. These data were processed by multivariate statistical analysis, factor analysis, linear regression, analysis of cluster and discriminant analysis. The factor analysis also identified 6 images perceived by users of services. Next were the relationships of cause and effect between the financial and images formed. In discriminant analysis, was identified two distinct groups of parents and guardians with financial perceptions similar and well defined. The result of the work shows that the differential level of financial participation of parents and guardians not influence the formation of the images formed from educational institutions of the third sector

Influência dos intermediários de distribuição de produtos turísticos no processo de decisão do meio de hospedagem pelo consumidor

This study examines the complex hotel buyer decision process in front of the tourism distribution channels. Its objective is to describe the influence level of the tourism marketing intermediaries, mainly the travel agents and tour operators, over the hotel decision process by the buyer-tourist. The data collection process was done trough a survey with three hundred brazilian tourists hosted in nineteen hotels of Natal, capital of Rio Grande do Norte, Brazil. The data analysis was done using some multivariate statistic techniques as correlation analysis, multiple regression analysis, factor analysis and multiple discriminant analysis. The research characterizes the hotel services consumers profile and his trip, and identifying the distribution channels used by them. Furthermore, the research verifies the intermediaries influence exercised over hotel buyer decision process, looking for identify causality relations between the influence level and the buyer profile. Verifies that information about hotels available on internet reduces the probability that this influence can be practiced; however it was possible identifying those consumers considers this information complementary and non-substitutes than the information from intermediaries. The characteristics of the data do not allow indentifying the factors that constraint the intermediaries influence neither identifying discriminant functions of the specific distribution channel choice by consumers. The study concludes that consumers don t agree in have been influenced by intermediaries or don t know if they have, still considering important to consult them and internet doesn t substitute their function as information source

Metodologias estatísticas aplicadas a dados de análises químicas da água produzida em um campo maduro de petróleo

Produced water is characterized as one of the most common wastes generated during exploration and production of oil. This work aims to develop methodologies based on comparative statistical processes of hydrogeochemical analysis of production zones in order to minimize types of high-cost interventions to perform identification test fluids - TIF. For the study, 27 samples were collected from five different production zones were measured a total of 50 chemical species. After the chemical analysis was applied the statistical data, using the R Statistical Software, version 2.11.1. Statistical analysis was performed in three steps. In the first stage, the objective was to investigate the behavior of chemical species under study in each area of production through the descriptive graphical analysis. The second step was to identify a function that classify production zones from each sample, using discriminant analysis. In the training stage, the rate of correct classification function of discriminant analysis was 85.19%. The next stage of processing of the data used for Principal Component Analysis, by reducing the number of variables obtained from the linear combination of chemical species, try to improve the discriminant function obtained in the second stage and increase the discrimination power of the data, but the result was not satisfactory. In Profile Analysis curves were obtained for each production area, based on the characteristics of the chemical species present in each zone. With this study it was possible to develop a method using hydrochemistry and statistical analysis that can be used to distinguish the water produced in mature fields of oil, so that it is possible to identify the zone of production that is contributing to the excessive elevation of the water volume.

Predição da maturação puberal de indivíduos do sexo masculino a partir de variáveis antropométricas

The methods of analysis of the selection system sports talent sometimes do not consider the biological age of the athletes, since that the assessment of maturational moment have several limitations The aim of this work is to develop a predictive equation of pubertal assessment in male subjects, based on anthropometric measurements. We evaluated 206 young boys, aged between eight and 18 years, and studing in public and private schools in Natal, Brazil. The sample selection was done randomly, being used the anthropometric measurements and pubertal maturation evaluation according to the Tanner stages. Statistical analysis followed the presentation of central tendency measures and their derivatives. The inferential analysis was performed according to the ANOVA test, multivariate discriminant analysis and weighted Kappa. The advancement of pubertal stages was accompanied by significant changes in anthropometric variables, demonstrating the relationship presented in both. For this purpose, discriminant analysis selected eight variables with the highest prediction of pubertal maturation, and created an equation with a significance level of 75%. and concordance level of 0.840, considered as excellent. This shows that the prediction of pubertal maturation from anthropometric variables presented as a valid method, being used as a practical tool in sports talents selection

Desenvolvimento e teste de um modelo estatístico de identificação das proporções de água produzida em zonas de produção de um campo maduro de petróleo

This study investigates the chemical species produced water from the reservoir areas of oil production in the field of Monte Alegre (onshore production) with a proposal of developing a model applied to the identification of the water produced in different zones or groups of zones.Starting from the concentrations of anions and cátions from water produced as input parameters in Linear Discriminate Analysis, it was possible to estimate and compare the model predictions respecting the particularities of their methods in order to ascertain which one would be most appropriate. The methods Resubstitution, Holdout Method and Lachenbruch were used for adjustment and general evaluation of the built models. Of the estimated models for Wells producing water for a single production area, the most suitable method was the "Holdout Method and had a hit rate of 90%. Discriminant functions (CV1, CV2 and CV3) estimated in this model were used to modeling new functions for samples ofartificial mixtures of produced water (producedin our laboratory) and samples of mixtures actualproduced water (water collected inwellsproducingmore thanonezone).The experiment with these mixtures was carried out according to a schedule experimental mixtures simplex type-centroid also was simulated in which the presence of water from steam injectionin these tanks fora part of amostras. Using graphs of two and three dimensions was possible to estimate the proportion of water in the production area

A function to predict the risk for death in the neonatal sepsis

This was a prospective study of 43 septic neonates at the NICU of the School of Medicine of Botucatu, São Paulo State University. Clinical and laboratory data of sepsis were analyzed based on outcome divided into two groups, survival and death. We calculated the discriminatory power of the relevant variables for the diagnosis of sepsis in each group, and using software for Discriminant Analysis, a function was proposed. There were 43 septic cases with 31 survivals and 12 deaths. The variables that had the highest discriminatory power were: n(o) of compromised systems, the SNAP, FiO2, and (A-a)O2. The study of these and others variables, such as birth weight, n(o) of risk factors, and pH using a Linear Discriminant Function(LDF) allowed us to identify the high-risk neonates for death with a low error rate (8.33%). The LDF was: F = 0.00043 (birth weight) + 0.30367 (n(o) of risk factors) - 0.1171 (n(o) of compromised systems) + 0.33223 (SNAP) + 2.27972 (pH) - 14.96511 (FiO2) + 0.01814 ((A-a)O2). If F > 22.77 there was high risk of death. This study suggests that the LDF at the onset of sepsis is useful for the early identification of the high-risk neonates that need special clinical and laboratory surveillance.

Echocardiographic detection of congestive heart failure in postinfarction rats

Conselho Nacional de Desenvolvimento Científico e Tecnológico (CNPq)

Multivariate analysis of stable isotope data in the traceability process for birds

A análise isotópica tem se mostrado uma ferramenta de suma importância ao processo de rastreabilidade, no entanto, existem divergências nas análises estatísticas dos resultados, uma vez que os dados são dependentes e advindos de vários elementos químicos tais como Carbono, Hidrogênio, Oxigênio, Nitrogênio e Enxofre (CHON'S). Com o intuito de estabelecer a análise propícia para os dados de rastreabilidade em aves pela técnica de isótopos estáveis e avaliar a necessidade da análise conjunta das variáveis, foram usados dados de carbono-13 e de nitrogênio-15 de ovos (albúmen + gema) de poedeiras e músculo peitoral de frangos de corte, os quais foram submetidos à análise estatística univariada (Anova e complementada pelo teste de Tukey) e multivariada (Manova e Discriminante). Os dados foram analisados no software Minitab 16, e os resultados, consolidados na teoria, confirmam a necessidade de análise multivariada, mostrando também que a análise discriminante esclarece as dúvidas apresentadas nos resultados de outros métodos de análise comparados nesta pesquisa.