Fuzzy Membership Functions in a Fuzzy Decision Making Problem

Authors analyses questions of the subjective uncertainty and inexactness situations in the moment of using expert information and another questions which are connected with expert information uncertainty by fuzzy sets with rough membership functions in this article. You can find information about integral problems of individual expert marks and about connection among total marks “degree of inexactness” with sensibility of measurement scale. A lot of different situation which are connected with distribution of the function accessory significance and orientation of the concrete take to task decision making are analyses here.

Optimal Decision Rules in Logical Recognition Models

The task of smooth and stable decision rules construction in logical recognition models is considered. Logical regularities of classes are defined as conjunctions of one-place predicates that determine the membership of features values in an intervals of the real axis. The conjunctions are true on a special no extending subsets of reference objects of some class and are optimal. The standard approach of linear decision rules construction for given sets of logical regularities consists in realization of voting schemes. The weighting coefficients of voting procedures are done as heuristic ones or are as solutions of complex optimization task. The modifications of linear decision rules are proposed that are based on the search of maximal estimations of standard objects for their classes and use approximations of logical regularities by smooth sigmoid functions.

Individual decision-making by top executives as a valuable resource for strategic management – A resource-based view and dynamic capability approach

Strategy is highly important for organisational success and the achievement of competitive advantage. Strategy is dynamic and it depends on accurate individual decision-making from medium and high-level managers and executives. Since managers always formulate strategy, its formulation depends mostly on their assertive decisions. Making good decisions is a complex task, even more in today’s business world where a large quantity of information and a dynamic environment forces people to decide without having complete information. As Shafir, Simonson, & Tversky (1993) point out, "the making of decisions, both big and small, is often difficult because of uncertainty and conflict". In this paper the author will explain a basic theoretical framework about top manager's individual decision-making, showing how complex the process of making high-impact decisions is; then, he will compare this theory with one of the most important streams in strategic management, the Resource-Based View (RBV) of the firm. Finally, within the context of individual decision-making and the RBV stream, the author will show how individual decision makers in top management positions constitute a valuable, rare, non-imitable and non-substitutable resource that provides sustained competitive advantage.

A study on uncertain dynamic disaster management tasks, knowledge sharing, and task performance

Each disaster presents itself with a unique set of characteristics that are hard to determine a priori. Thus disaster management tasks are inherently uncertain, requiring knowledge sharing and quick decision making that involves coordination across different levels and collaborators. While there has been an increasing interest among both researchers and practitioners in utilizing knowledge management to improve disaster management, little research has been reported about how to assess the dynamic nature of disaster management tasks, and what kinds of knowledge sharing are appropriate for different dimensions of task uncertainty characteristics. ^ Using combinations of qualitative and quantitative methods, this research study developed the dimensions and their corresponding measures of the uncertain dynamic characteristics of disaster management tasks and tested the relationships between the various dimensions of uncertain dynamic disaster management tasks and task performance through the moderating and mediating effects of knowledge sharing. ^ Furthermore, this research work conceptualized and assessed task uncertainty along three dimensions: novelty, unanalyzability, and significance; knowledge sharing along two dimensions: knowledge sharing purposes and knowledge sharing mechanisms; and task performance along two dimensions: task effectiveness and task efficiency. Analysis results of survey data collected from Miami-Dade County emergency managers suggested that knowledge sharing purposes and knowledge sharing mechanisms moderate and mediate uncertain dynamic disaster management task and task performance. Implications for research and practice as well directions for future research are discussed.^

Age differences and conformity in juror decision -making

The purpose of this experiment was to investigate whether older adults conform more than young and middle-aged adults on a juror decision making task. Degree of group pressure, personality characteristics, gender, and social influence processes were also examined.^ Registered voters (208 participants) completed a personality questionnaire. Several weeks later, groups of six participants listened to a robbery case that portrayed the defendant as guilty. Afterwards, participants completed the first of two ballots. On the first, participants rated the defendant's degree of guilt and scored their degree of certainty in this verdict rating. They also indicated in writing which piece of information (a statement of evidence) from the robbery case supported their verdict ratings. Next, participants reviewed photocopies of five contrived first ballots. Then participants completed second ballots, in which they again rated the defendant's degree of guilt and scored their degree of certainty in this verdict rating. Finally, participants rated the importance of the five contrived first ballot verdict ratings (normative social influence) and statements of evidence (informational social influence) in reaching their second ballot verdict ratings.^ The results demonstrated that not only did older adults conform as expected, but all age groups conformed; that is, all age groups changed their verdict ratings. After reviewing the other jurors' contrived first ballots (group pressure), participants rated the defendant as less guilty on their second ballot than on their first. However, only older adults significantly changed their level of certainty in their verdict ratings from first to second ballot compared to young and middle-aged adults. With regard to personality characteristics, only rigidity predicted conformity in young and middle-aged adults but not in older adults. It was also found that females conformed more than males. Finally, all three age groups reported that different social influence processes (normative vs. informational) were important in reaching their second ballot verdict ratings. The results of this research indicate that various factors can influence young, middle-aged, and older adults as they reach verdicts. Knowledge of these factors may help alter stereotypes of older adults in terms of conformity, rigidity, and desirability as jurors. ^

Decision-Making in the Primate Brain

Making decisions is fundamental to everything we do, yet it can be impaired in various disorders and conditions. While research into the neural basis of decision-making has flourished in recent years, many questions remain about how decisions are instantiated in the brain. Here we explored how primates make abstract decisions and decisions in social contexts, as well as one way to non-invasively modulate the brain circuits underlying decision-making. We used rhesus macaques as our model organism. First we probed numerical decision-making, a form of abstract decision-making. We demonstrated that monkeys are able to compare discrete ratios, choosing an array with a greater ratio of positive to negative stimuli, even when this array does not have a greater absolute number of positive stimuli. Monkeys’ performance in this task adhered to Weber’s law, indicating that monkeys—like humans—treat proportions as analog magnitudes. Next we showed that monkeys’ ordinal decisions are influenced by spatial associations; when trained to select the fourth stimulus from the bottom in a vertical array, they subsequently selected the fourth stimulus from the left—and not from the right—in a horizontal array. In other words, they begin enumerating from one side of space and not the other, mirroring the human tendency to associate numbers with space. These and other studies confirmed that monkeys’ numerical decision-making follows similar patterns to that of humans, making them a good model for investigations of the neurobiological basis of numerical decision-making.

We sought to develop a system for exploring the neuronal basis of the cognitive and behavioral effects observed following transcranial magnetic stimulation, a relatively new, non-invasive method of brain stimulation that may be used to treat clinical disorders. We completed a set of pilot studies applying offline low-frequency repetitive transcranial magnetic stimulation to the macaque posterior parietal cortex, which has been implicated in numerical processing, while subjects performed a numerical comparison and control color comparison task, and while electrophysiological activity was recorded from the stimulated region of cortex. We found tentative evidence in one paradigm that stimulation did selectively impair performance in the number task, causally implicating the posterior parietal cortex in numerical decisions. In another paradigm, however, we manipulated the subject’s reaching behavior but not her number or color comparison performance. We also found that stimulation produced variable changes in neuronal firing and local field potentials. Together these findings lay the groundwork for detailed investigations into how different parameters of transcranial magnetic stimulation can interact with cortical architecture to produce various cognitive and behavioral changes.

Finally, we explored how monkeys decide how to behave in competitive social interactions. In a zero-sum computer game in which two monkeys played as a shooter or a goalie during a hockey-like “penalty shot” scenario, we found that shooters developed complex movement trajectories so as to conceal their intentions from the goalies. Additionally, we found that neurons in the dorsolateral and dorsomedial prefrontal cortex played a role in generating this “deceptive” behavior. We conclude that these regions of prefrontal cortex form part of a circuit that guides decisions to make an individual less predictable to an opponent.

The Role of Social Cognition and Person Perception in Economic Social Decision-Making

Social decision-making is often complex, requiring the decision-maker to make social inferences about another person in addition to engaging traditional decision-making processes. However, until recently, much research in neuroeconomics and behavioral economics has examined social decision-making while failing to take into account the importance of the social context and social cognitive processes that are engaged when viewing another person. Using social psychological theory to guide our hypotheses, four research studies investigate the role of social cognition and person perception in guiding economic decisions made in social contexts. The first study (Chapter 2) demonstrates that only specific types of social information engage brain regions implicated in social cognition and hinder learning in social contexts. Study 2 (Chapter 3) extends these findings and examines contexts in which this social information is used to generalize across contexts to form predictions about another person’s behavior. Study 3 (Chapter 4) demonstrates that under certain contexts these social cognitive processes may be withheld in order to more effectively complete the task at hand. Last, Study 4 (Chapter 5) examines how this knowledge of social cognitive processing can be used to change behavior in a prosocial group context. Taken together, these studies add to the growing body of literature examining decision-making in social contexts and highlight the importance of social cognitive processing in guiding these decisions. Although social cognitive processing typically facilitates social interactions, these processes may alter economic decision-making in social contexts.

The Optimality of Decision Making During Motor Learning

In our daily lives, we often must predict how well we are going to perform in the future based on an evaluation of our current performance and an assessment of how much we will improve with practice. Such predictions can be used to decide whether to invest our time and energy in learning and, if we opt to invest, what rewards we may gain. This thesis investigated whether people are capable of tracking their own learning (i.e. current and future motor ability) and exploiting that information to make decisions related to task reward. In experiment one, participants performed a target aiming task under a visuomotor rotation such that they initially missed the target but gradually improved. After briefly practicing the task, they were asked to select rewards for hits and misses applied to subsequent performance in the task, where selecting a higher reward for hits came at a cost of receiving a lower reward for misses. We found that participants made decisions that were in the direction of optimal and therefore demonstrated knowledge of future task performance. In experiment two, participants learned a novel target aiming task in which they were rewarded for target hits. Every five trials, they could choose a target size which varied inversely with reward value. Although participants’ decisions deviated from optimal, a model suggested that they took into account both past performance, and predicted future performance, when making their decisions. Together, these experiments suggest that people are capable of tracking their own learning and using that information to make sensible decisions related to reward maximization.

Decision Making for Teams of Mobile Robots

In the past years, we could observe a significant amount of new robotic systems in science, industry, and everyday life. To reduce the complexity of these systems, the industry constructs robots that are designated for the execution of a specific task such as vacuum cleaning, autonomous driving, observation, or transportation operations. As a result, such robotic systems need to combine their capabilities to accomplish complex tasks that exceed the abilities of individual robots. However, to achieve emergent cooperative behavior, multi-robot systems require a decision process that copes with the communication challenges of the application domain. This work investigates a distributed multi-robot decision process, which addresses unreliable and transient communication. This process composed by five steps, which we embedded into the ALICA multi-agent coordination language guided by the PROViDE negotiation middleware. The first step encompasses the specification of the decision problem, which is an integral part of the ALICA implementation. In our decision process, we describe multi-robot problems by continuous nonlinear constraint satisfaction problems. The second step addresses the calculation of solution proposals for this problem specification. Here, we propose an efficient solution algorithm that integrates incomplete local search and interval propagation techniques into a satisfiability solver, which forms a satisfiability modulo theories (SMT) solver. In the third decision step, the PROViDE middleware replicates the solution proposals among the robots. This replication process is parameterized with a distribution method, which determines the consistency properties of the proposals. In a fourth step, we investigate the conflict resolution. Therefore, an acceptance method ensures that each robot supports one of the replicated proposals. As we integrated the conflict resolution into the replication process, a sound selection of the distribution and acceptance methods leads to an eventual convergence of the robot proposals. In order to avoid the execution of conflicting proposals, the last step comprises a decision method, which selects a proposal for implementation in case the conflict resolution fails. The evaluation of our work shows that the usage of incomplete solution techniques of the constraint satisfaction solver outperforms the runtime of other state-of-the-art approaches for many typical robotic problems. We further show by experimental setups and practical application in the RoboCup environment that our decision process is suitable for making quick decisions in the presence of packet loss and delay. Moreover, PROViDE requires less memory and bandwidth compared to other state-of-the-art middleware approaches.

Increase in Hippocampal Theta Oscillations during Spatial Decision Making

The processing of spatial and mnemonic information is believed to depend on hippocampal theta oscillations (5–12 Hz). However, in rats both the power and the frequency of the theta rhythm are modulated by locomotor activity, which is a major confounding factor when estimating its cognitive correlates. Previous studies have suggested that hippocampal theta oscillations support decision-making processes. In this study, we investigated to what extent spatial decision making modulates hippocampal theta oscillations when controlling for variations in locomotion speed. We recorded local field potentials from the CA1 region of rats while animals had to choose one arm to enter for reward (goal) in a four-arm radial maze. We observed prominent theta oscillations during the decision-making period of the task, which occurred in the center of the maze before animals deliberately ran through an arm toward goal location. In speed-controlled analyses, theta power and frequency were higher during the decision period when compared to either an intertrial delay period (also at the maze center), or to the period of running toward goal location. In addition, theta activity was higher during decision periods preceding correct choices than during decision periods preceding incorrect choices. Altogether, our data support a cognitive function for the hippocampal theta rhythm in spatial decision making

The role of muscarinic cholinergic signaling in cost-benefit decision making

Thesis (Ph.D.)--University of Washington, 2016-08

The role of metalinguistic awareness and of L2 proficiency in positive lexical transfer from English (L2) to German (L3) by French-speaking Quebeckers

Il a été avancé que des apprenants expérimentés développeraient des niveaux élevés de conscience métalinguistique (MLA), ce qui leur faciliterait l’apprentissage de langues subséquentes (p.ex., Singleton & Aronin, 2007). De plus, des chercheurs dans le domaine de l’acquisition des langues tierces insistent sur les influences positives qu’exercent les langues précédemment apprises sur l’apprentissage formel d’une langue étrangère (p.ex., Cenoz & Gorter, 2015), et proposent de délaisser le regard traditionnel qui mettait l’accent sur l’interférence à l’origine des erreurs des apprenants pour opter pour une vision plus large et positive de l’interaction entre les langues. Il a été démontré que la similarité typologique ainsi que la compétence dans la langue source influence tous les types de transfert (p.ex., Ringbom, 1987, 2007). Cependant, le défi méthodologique de déterminer, à la fois l’usage pertinent d’une langue cible en tant que résultat d’une influence translinguistique (p.ex., Falk & Bardel, 2010) et d’établir le rôle crucial de la MLA dans l’activation consciente de mots ou de constructions reliés à travers différentes langues, demeure. La présente étude avait pour but de relever ce double défi en faisant appel à des protocoles oraux (TAPs) pour examiner le transfert positif de l’anglais (L2) vers l’allemand (L3) chez des Québécois francophones après cinq semaines d’enseignement formel de la L3. Les participants ont été soumis à une tâche de traduction développée aux fins de la présente étude. Les 42 items ont été sélectionnés sur la base de jugements de similarité et d’imagibilité ainsi que de fréquence des mots provenant d’une étude de cognats allemands-anglais (Friel & Kennison, 2001). Les participants devaient réfléchir à voix haute pendant qu’ils traduisaient des mots inconnus de l’allemand (L3) vers le français (L1). Le transfert positif a été opérationnalisé par des traductions correctes qui étaient basées sur un cognat anglais. La MLA a été mesurée par le biais du THAM (Test d’habiletés métalinguistiques) (Pinto & El Euch, 2015) ainsi que par l’analyse des TAPs. Les niveaux de compétence en anglais ont été établis sur la base du Michigan Test (Corrigan et al., 1979), tandis que les niveaux d’exposition ainsi que l’intérêt envers la langue et la culture allemandes ont été mesurés à l’aide d’un questionnaire. Une analyse fine des TAPs a révélé de la variabilité inter- et intra-individuelle dans l’activation consciente du vocabulaire en L2, tout en permettant l’identification de niveaux distincts de prise de conscience. Deux modèles indépendants de régressions logistiques ont permis d’identifier les deux dimensions de MLA comme prédicteurs de transfert positif. Le premier modèle, dans lequel le THAM était la mesure exclusive de MLA, a déterminé cette dimension réflexive comme principal prédicteur, suivie de la compétence en anglais, tandis qu’aucune des autres variables indépendantes pouvait prédire le transfert positif de l’anglais. Dans le second modèle, incluant le THAM ainsi que les TAPs comme mesures complémentaires de MLA, la dimension appliquée de MLA, telle que mesurée par les TAPs, était de loin le prédicteur principal, suivie de la dimension réflexive, telle que mesurée par le THAM, tandis que la compétence en anglais ne figurait plus parmi les facteurs ayant une influence significative sur la variable réponse. Bien que la verbalisation puisse avoir influencé la performance dans une certaine mesure, nos observations mettent en évidence la contribution précieuse de données introspectives comme complément aux résultats basés sur des caractéristiques purement linguistiques du transfert. Nos analyses soulignent la complexité des processus métalinguistiques et des stratégies individuelles, ce qui reflète une perspective dynamique du multilinguisme (p.ex., Jessner, 2008).

Natural Language Generation enhances human decision-making with uncertain information.

Decision-making is often dependent on uncertain data, e.g. data associated with confidence scores or probabilities. We present a comparison of different informa- tion presentations for uncertain data and, for the first time, measure their effects on human decision-making. We show that the use of Natural Language Genera- tion (NLG) improves decision-making un- der uncertainty, compared to state-of-the- art graphical-based representation meth- ods. In a task-based study with 442 adults, we found that presentations using NLG lead to 24% better decision-making on av- erage than the graphical presentations, and to 44% better decision-making when NLG is combined with graphics. We also show that women achieve significantly better re- sults when presented with NLG output (an 87% increase on average compared to graphical presentations).

Understanding information use in multiattribute decision making

An inference task in one in which some known set of information is used to produce an estimate about an unknown quantity. Existing theories of how humans make inferences include specialized heuristics that allow people to make these inferences in familiar environments quickly and without unnecessarily complex computation. Specialized heuristic processing may be unnecessary, however; other research suggests that the same patterns in judgment can be explained by existing patterns in encoding and retrieving memories. This dissertation compares and attempts to reconcile three alternate explanations of human inference. After justifying three hierarchical Bayesian version of existing inference models, the three models are com- pared on simulated, observed, and experimental data. The results suggest that the three models capture different patterns in human behavior but, based on posterior prediction using laboratory data, potentially ignore important determinants of the decision process.

Increase in Hippocampal Theta Oscillations during Spatial Decision Making

The processing of spatial and mnemonic information is believed to depend on hippocampal theta oscillations (5–12 Hz). However, in rats both the power and the frequency of the theta rhythm are modulated by locomotor activity, which is a major confounding factor when estimating its cognitive correlates. Previous studies have suggested that hippocampal theta oscillations support decision-making processes. In this study, we investigated to what extent spatial decision making modulates hippocampal theta oscillations when controlling for variations in locomotion speed. We recorded local field potentials from the CA1 region of rats while animals had to choose one arm to enter for reward (goal) in a four-arm radial maze. We observed prominent theta oscillations during the decision-making period of the task, which occurred in the center of the maze before animals deliberately ran through an arm toward goal location. In speed-controlled analyses, theta power and frequency were higher during the decision period when compared to either an intertrial delay period (also at the maze center), or to the period of running toward goal location. In addition, theta activity was higher during decision periods preceding correct choices than during decision periods preceding incorrect choices. Altogether, our data support a cognitive function for the hippocampal theta rhythm in spatial decision making