Some Like It Hot: The Influence and Implications of Climate Change on Coffee Berry Borer (Hypothenemus hampei) and Coffee Production in East Africa

The negative effects of climate change are already evident for many of the 25 million coffee farmers across the tropics and the 90 billion dollar (US) coffee industry. The coffee berry borer (Hypothenemus hampei), the most important pest of coffee worldwide, has already benefited from the temperature rise in East Africa: increased damage to coffee crops and expansion in its distribution range have been reported. In order to anticipate threats and prioritize management actions for H. hampei we present here, maps on future distributions of H. hampei in coffee producing areas of East Africa. Using the CLIMEX model we relate present-day insect distributions to current climate and then project the fitted climatic envelopes under future scenarios A2A and B2B (for HADCM3 model). In both scenarios, the situation with H. hampei is forecasted to worsen in the current Coffea arabica producing areas of Ethiopia, the Ugandan part of the Lake Victoria and Mt. Elgon regions, Mt. Kenya and the Kenyan side of Mt. Elgon, and most of Rwanda and Burundi. The calculated hypothetical number of generations per year of H. hampei is predicted to increase in all C. arabica-producing areas from five to ten. These outcomes will have serious implications for C. arabica production and livelihoods in East Africa. We suggest that the best way to adapt to a rise of temperatures in coffee plantations could be via the introduction of shade trees in sun grown plantations. The aims of this study are to fill knowledge gaps existing in the coffee industry, and to draft an outline for the development of an adaptation strategy package for climate change on coffee production. An abstract in Spanish is provided as Abstract S1.

The physico-chemistry of the northern waters of Lake Victoria

In this paper, we try to briefly review the current physico-chemical data pertaining to Northern Lake Victoria which could eventually be used to explain the following:- (a) whether there bas been a change of the dissolved organic nutrient cencentrations when compared with the pre-perch period, (b) the specific point sources of the influent nutrients and other chemicals and how they correlate with changes in algal productivity, and (c) whether the data can contribute to the validation of the Lake Victoria ecological model developed by Jorgensen at al. (1982).

The effect of ecological changes in Lake Victoria on the present trophic characteristics of Oreochromis niloticus in relation to the species' role as a stabilizing factor of biomanipulation

The Lake Victoria ecosystem has experienced such a profound ecological change that Oreochromis niloticus - an introduced species, is the only important cichlid (out of the original 250 + spp) left in the lake. It is the basis of an important commercial fishery which is intensely exploited by sophisticated methods. An investigation of its feeding habits at present indicates that the species could also playa major role in the energy flux of the lake. Fisheries management in Lake Victoria will thus require multi-disciplinary studies which reflect a total ecosystem approach.

Fishers’ perception on livelihood strategies, adaptation and mitigation measures to cope with changes in climate variables around Lake Wamala, Uganda

Fisheries support livelihoods but are threatened by climate variability and change which intensified since the 1970s. This study used quantitative and qualitative methods to determine the extent to which fishers around Lake Wamala in Uganda were copying with perceived changes in climate variables and the impacts on their livelihoods, to generate knowledge to enable the fishers increase resilience and sustain their livelihoods. Fishers were aware of changes in climate manifested by unpredictable seasons, floods and droughts. Fishing was the main livelihood activity. The African catfish had replaced Nile tilapia as the dominant fish species. There was damage and loss of gear, boats, landing sites and lives, and changes in fish catches and sizes, income and fish consumption during the perceived floods and droughts. The fishers adapted to the changes through increasing time on fishing grounds and changing target species and fishing gears but innovative ones diversified to high value crops and livestock which increased their income beyond what was earned from fishing thus acting as an incentive for some of them to quit fishing. Diversification to non-fishery activities as a form of adaptation was enhanced by membership to social groups, weekly fishing days, fishing experience and age of fishers but its benefits were not equally shared among men and women. Mitigation measures included planting trees, mulching gardens and protecting wetlands. Adaptation and mitigation measures were constrained by limited credit, awareness and land. The required interventions included improving access to credit, irrigation facilities and appropriate planting materials and raising awareness. The study showed that the fishers were aware of changes in climatic variables and the impacts on their livelihoods. There were also adaptation and mitigation measures practiced by the fishers which if promoted and their constraints addressed, could increase resilience of fishers to climatic change and sustain their livelihoods.

Changes in catches and biological characteristics of Nile tilapia (Oreochromis niloticus Linnaeus) in Lake Wamala (Uganda) under changing climatic conditions

There have been changes in catches and biological characteristics of the Nile Tilapia, Oreochromis niloticus (Linnaeus) in Lake Wamala (Uganda) since its introduction and establishment, but the factors which have contributed to these changes are not adequately understood. This study examined changes in catches and biological characteristics of Nile tilapia in relation to changes in temperature, rainfall and lake depth to provide an understanding of the role of changing climatic conditions. There was an increase in minimum, maximum and average temperature since 1980, but only minimum (0.021ºCyr-1) and average (0.018ºCyr-1) showed a significant trend (p < 0.05). Rainfall increased by 8.25 mmyr-1 since 1950 and accounted for 79.5% of the water input into the lake while evaporation accounted for 86.2% of the water loss from the lake. The lake depth was above 4 m during the years rainfall was above normal average of 1180 mm, except during the period 2011-2014. The contribution of Nile tilapia to total catch and CPUE changed with rainfall and lake depth up to 2000, after which they decreased despite increase in rainfall. There was a strong positive correlation between lake depth and average total length of Nile tilapia (r = 0.991, p < 0.001) and length at 50% maturity (r = 0.726, p < 0.001). The length-weight allometry between high and low lake depths was significantly different [t (6) = 3.225, p < 0.05], with Nile tilapia being heavier (for a given length) at high lake depth than at low lake depth. Fecundity of Nile tilapia was higher and egg diameter lower than what is reported in literature. Nile tilapia shifted from algal dominated diet during the wet season to include more insects during the dry season. The study showed that the catches and biological characteristics of Nile tilapia change with climate and hydrological factors and these need to be considered in management of the fisheries of Lake Wamala.

Aspects of the fishery and biology of the African catfish Clarias gariepinus (Burchell, 1822) amidst environmental changes in Lake Wamala (Uganda)

Environmental changes are some of the factors that affect fisheries and biological characteristics of fishes. The African catfish Clarias gariepinus (Burchell, 1822) has biological characteristics that enable it to persist under various stressful environmental conditions. However, few studies have examined how the African catfish responds to conditions created by a changing climate. The study examined some of the fishery and biological characteristics of African catfish in Lake Wamala (Uganda) to provide an understanding of their response to changing climatic conditions using data for the period 1950 - 2013. Temperature around the lake increased by 0.02ºC/year since 1980, commensurate with the regional trend, while rainfall was above average since 1996, except in 2004 and 2008. Lake depth was strongly positively correlated with rainfall (r =0.83, n= 6, p<0.05) up to 2000, after which, lake depth decreased amidst increase in rainfall. The contribution of African catfish increased from 20% to 85% and 17% to 78% respectively to commercial and experimental catches respectively between 1975 and 2013 despite the decrease in lake depth. The modal total length, condition factor, food, and fecundity did not change. Only size at first maturity decreased from 37.5 to 30 cm TL in females and 39.5 to 34.2 cm TL in males between 1999/2000 and 2012/2013. The biological characteristics of the African catfish were comparable with those of the same species in other lakes and remained relatively stable. The results suggested that the African catfish has the capacity to persist and/or adjust appropriately under conditions created by climate variability and change, and if properly managed, can sustain the fisheries of Lake Wamala.

Changes in the Ecology and Abundance of Smallmouth Bass in Lake Ontario: 1958-2014

Thesis (Master, Biology) -- Queen's University, 2016-10-04 08:39:25.778

Climate variability of the last 1000 years in the NW Pacific: high resolution, multi-biomarker records from Lake Toyoni

The East Asian Monsoon (EAM) is an active component of the global climate system and has a profound social and economic impact in East Asia and its surrounding countries. Its impact on regional hydrological processes may influence society through industrial water supplies, food productivity and energy use. In order to predict future rates of climate change, reliable and accurate reconstructions of regional temperature and rainfall are required from all over the world to test climate models and better predict future climate variability. Hokkaido is a region which has limited palaeo-climate data and is sensitive to climate change. Instrumental data show that the climate in Hokkaido is influenced by the East Asian Monsoon (EAM), however, instrumental data is limited to the past ~150 years. Therefore down-core climate reconstructions, prior to instrumental records, are required to provide a better understanding of the long-term behaviour of the climate drivers (e.g. the EAM, Westerlies, and teleconnections) in this region. The present study develops multi-proxy reconstructions to determine past climatic and hydrologic variability in Japan over the past 1000 years and aid in understanding the effects of the EAM and the Westerlies independently and interactively. A 250-cm long sediment core from Lake Toyoni, Hokkaido was retrieved to investigate terrestrial and aquatic input, lake temperature and hydrological changes over the past 1000-years within Lake Toyoni and its catchment using X-Ray Fluorescence (XRF) data, alkenone palaeothermometry, the molecular and hydrogen isotopic composition of higher plant waxes (δD(HPW)). Here, we conducted the first survey for alkenone biomarkers in eight lakes in the Hokkaido, Japan. We detected the occurrence of alkenones within the sediments of Lake Toyoni. We present the first lacustrine alkenone record from Japan, including genetic analysis of the alkenone producer. C37 alkenone concentrations in surface sediments are 18µg C37 g−1 of dry sediment and the dominant alkenone is C37:4. 18S rDNA analysis revealed the presence of a single alkenone producer in Lake Toyoni and thus a single calibration is used for reconstructing lake temperature based on alkenone unsaturation patterns. Temperature reconstructions over the past 1000 years suggest that lake water temperatures varies between 8 and 19°C which is in line with water temperature changes observed in the modern Lake Toyoni. The alkenone-based temperature reconstruction provides evidence for the variability of the EAM over the past 1000 years. The δD(HPW) suggest that the large fluctuations (∼40‰) represent changes in temperature and source precipitation in this region, which is ultimately controlled by the EAM system and therefore a proxy for the EAM system. In order to complement the biomarker reconstructions, the XRF data strengthen the lake temperature and hydrological reconstructions by providing information on past productivity, which is controlled by the East Asian Summer monsoon (EASM) and wind input into Lake Toyoni, which is controlled by the East Asian Winter Monsoon (EAWM) and the Westerlies. By combining the data generated from XRF, alkenone palaeothermometry and the δD(HPW) reconstructions, we provide valuable information on the EAM and the Westerlies, including; the timing of intensification and weakening, the teleconnections influencing them and the relationship between them. During the Medieval Warm Period (MWP), we find that the EASM dominated and the EAWM was suppressed, whereas, during the Little Ice Age (LIA), the influence of the EAWM dominated with time periods of increased EASM and Westerlies intensification. The El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) significantly influenced the EAM; a strong EASM occurred during El Niño conditions and a strong EAWM occurred during La Niña. The North Atlantic Oscillation, on the other hand, was a key driver of the Westerlies intensification; strengthening of the Westerlies during a positive NAO phase and weakening of the Westerlies during a negative NAO phase. A key finding from this study is that our data support an anti-phase relationship between the EASM and the EAWM (e.g. the intensification of the EASM and weakening of the EAWM and vice versa) and that the EAWM and the Westerlies vary independently from each other, rather than coincide as previously suggested in other studies.

Governing the water conservation in the Urmia Lake Basin: addressing macro systems’ fit and micro users’ behavior

To change unadapted water governing systems, and water users’ traditional conducts in line with climate change, understanding of systems’ structures and users’ behaviors is necessary. To this aim, comprehensive and pragmatic research was designed and implemented in the Urmia Lake Basin where due to the severe droughts, and human-made influences, especially through the agricultural development, the lake has been shrunken drastically. To analyze the water governance and conservation issues in the basin, an innovative framework was developed based on mathematical physics concepts and pro-environmental behavior theories. Accordingly, in system level (macro/meso), the problem of fit of the early-shaped water governing system associating with the function of “political-security” and “political-economic” factors in the basin was identified through mean-field models. Furthermore, the effect of a “political-environmental” factor, the Urmia Lake Restoration Program (ULRP), on reforming the system structure and hence its fit was assessed. The analysis results revealed that by revising the provincial boundaries (horizontal alternation) for the entity of Kurdistan province to permit that interact with the headquarter of West Azerbaijan province for its water demand-supply initiatives, the system fit can increase. Also, the constitution of the ULRP (vertical arrangement) not only could increase the structural fit of the water governing system to the basin, but also significantly could enhance the system fit through its water-saving policy. Besides, in individual level (micro), the governing factors of water conservation behavior of the major users/farmers were identified through rational and moral socio-psychological models. In rational approach, incorporating PMT and TPB, the SEM results demonstrated that “Perceived Vulnerability”, “Self-Efficacy”, “Response Efficacy”, “Response Cost”, “Subjective Norms” and “Institutional Trust” significantly affect the water-saving intention/behavior. Likewise, NAM based analysis as a moral approach, uncovered the significant effects of “Awareness of Consequences”, “Appraisal of Responsibility”, “Personal Norms” as well as “Place Attachment” and “Emotions” on water-saving intention.

Effect Of Simulated Microwave Disinfection On The Linear Dimensional Change, Hardness And Impact Strength Of Acrylic Resins Processed By Different Polymerizing Cycles.

This study investigated the effect of simulated microwave disinfection (SMD) on the linear dimensional changes, hardness and impact strength of acrylic resins under different polymerization cycles. Metal dies with referential points were embedded in flasks with dental stone. Samples of Classico and Vipi acrylic resins were made following the manufacturers' recommendations. The assessed polymerization cycles were: A-- water bath at 74ºC for 9 h; B-- water bath at 74ºC for 8 h and temperature increased to 100ºC for 1 h; C-- water bath at 74ºC for 2 h and temperature increased to 100ºC for 1 h;; and D-- water bath at 120ºC and pressure of 60 pounds. Linear dimensional distances in length and width were measured after SMD and water storage at 37ºC for 7 and 30 days using an optical microscope. SMD was carried out with the samples immersed in 150 mL of water in an oven (650 W for 3 min). A load of 25 gf for 10 sec was used in the hardness test. Charpy impact test was performed with 40 kpcm. Data were submitted to ANOVA and Tukey's test (5%). The Classico resin was dimensionally steady in length in the A and D cycles for all periods, while the Vipi resin was steady in the A, B and C cycles for all periods. The Classico resin was dimensionally steady in width in the C and D cycles for all periods, and the Vipi resin was steady in all cycles and periods. The hardness values for Classico resin were steady in all cycles and periods, while the Vipi resin was steady only in the C cycle for all periods. Impact strength values for Classico resin were steady in the A, C and D cycles for all periods, while Vipi resin was steady in all cycles and periods. SMD promoted different effects on the linear dimensional changes, hardness and impact strength of acrylic resins submitted to different polymerization cycles when after SMD and water storage were considered.

Effect Of Simulated Microwave Disinfection On The Linear Dimensional Change, Hardness And Impact Strength Of Acrylic Resins Processed By Different Polymerization Cycles.

This study investigated the effect of simulated microwave disinfection (SMD) on the linear dimensional changes, hardness and impact strength of acrylic resins under different polymerization cycles. Metal dies with referential points were embedded in flasks with dental stone. Samples of Classico and Vipi acrylic resins were made following the manufacturers' recommendations. The assessed polymerization cycles were: A) water bath at 74 ºC for 9 h; B) water bath at 74 ºC for 8 h and temperature increased to 100 ºC for 1 h; C) water bath at 74 ºC for 2 h and temperature increased to 100 ºC for 1 h; and D) water bath at 120 ºC and pressure of 60 pounds. Linear dimensional distances in length and width were measured after SMD and water storage at 37 ºC for 7 and 30 days using an optical microscope. SMD was carried out with the samples immersed in 150 mL of water in an oven (650 W for 3 min). A load of 25 gf for 10 s was used in the hardness test. Charpy impact test was performed with 40 kpcm. Data were submitted to ANOVA and Tukey's test (5%). The Classico resin was dimensionally steady in length in the A and D cycles for all periods, while the Vipi resin was steady in the A, B and C cycles for all periods. The Classico resin was dimensionally steady in width in the C and D cycles for all periods, and the Vipi resin was steady in all cycles and periods. The hardness values for Classico resin were steady in all cycles and periods, while the Vipi resin was steady only in the C cycle for all periods. Impact strength values for Classico resin were steady in the A, C and D cycles for all periods, while Vipi resin was steady in all cycles and periods. SMD promoted different effects on the linear dimensional changes, hardness and impact strength of acrylic resins submitted to different polymerization cycles when after SMD and water storage were considered.

Epidemiological and ecological aspects related to malaria in the area of influence of the lake at Porto Primavera dam, in western São Paulo State, Brazil

A study was carried out in the area of influence of the Porto Primavera Hydroelectric Power Station, in western São Paulo State, to investigate ecological and epidemiological aspects of malaria in the area and monitor the profile of the anopheline populations following the environmental changes brought about by the construction of the lake. Mosquitoes captured were analyzed by standardized indicator species analysis (ISA) before and during different flooding phases (253 m and 257 m elevations). The local human population was studied by means of parasitological (thin/thick blood smears), molecular (PCR) and serological tests. Serological tests consisted of Enzyme Linked Immunosorbent Assay (ELISA) with synthetic peptides of the circumsporozoite protein (CSP) from classic Plasmodium vivax, P. vivax variants (VK247 and "vivax-like"), P. malariae and P. falciparum and Indirect Immunofluorescence Assay (IFA) with asexual forms of P. vivax, P. malariae and P. falciparum. The results of the entomological survey indicated that, although the Anopheles darlingi population increased after the flooding, the population density remained very low. No malaria, parasite infection or DNA was detected in the inhabitants of the study area. However, there was a low frequency of antibodies against asexual forms and a significant prevalence of antibodies against P. vivax, P. vivax variants, P. falciparum and P. malariae; the presence of these antibodies may result from recent or less recent contact with human or simian Plasmodium (a parallel study in the same area revealed the existence of a sylvatic cycle). Nevertheless, these results suggest that, as in other places where malaria is present and potential vectors circulate, the local epidemiological conditions observed could potentially support the transmission of malaria in Porto Primavera Lake if infected individuals are introduced in sufficient numbers. Further studies are required to elucidate the phenomena described in this paper.

Factors associated with stages of change for red meat and vegetable intake by Japanese-Brazilians

Stages of change assess individual motivation for lifestyle changes, contributing to the development of more effective intervention strategies. The objective of the present study was to identify factors associated with stages of change for lower intake of red meat and higher intake of vegetables in a cross-sectional analysis of 578 Japanese-Brazilians aged 30-90 years. In adjusted logistic regression models, the odds ratios for women (OR = 1.89; 95%CI: 1.154; 3.103) and physically active individuals (OR = 1.00; 95%CI: 1.000; 1.001) were positively associated with stage of "action" for the higher intake of vegetables. Inverse associations were observed between central obesity (OR = 0.5; 95%CI: 0.351; 0.887) and highest tertile of red meat intake (OR = 0.50; 95%CI: 0.302; 0.817), as well as a positive association between age (OR = 1.04; 95%CI: 1.020; 1.070) and the stage of "action" to the lower intake of meat were verified. Motivation for Japanese-Brazilians to change their food intake was linked to lifestyle. Stage of change is an important factor in mediating food intake behavior change.

Change and Aging Senescence as an Adaptation

Understanding why we age is a long-lived open problem in evolutionary biology. Aging is prejudicial to the individual, and evolutionary forces should prevent it, but many species show signs of senescence as individuals age. Here, I will propose a model for aging based on assumptions that are compatible with evolutionary theory: i) competition is between individuals; ii) there is some degree of locality, so quite often competition will be between parents and their progeny; iii) optimal conditions are not stationary, and mutation helps each species to keep competitive. When conditions change, a senescent species can drive immortal competitors to extinction. This counter-intuitive result arises from the pruning caused by the death of elder individuals. When there is change and mutation, each generation is slightly better adapted to the new conditions, but some older individuals survive by chance. Senescence can eliminate those from the genetic pool. Even though individual selection forces can sometimes win over group selection ones, it is not exactly the individual that is selected but its lineage. While senescence damages the individuals and has an evolutionary cost, it has a benefit of its own. It allows each lineage to adapt faster to changing conditions. We age because the world changes.