990 resultados para LONG-TERM SURVIVAL MODELS


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Eutrophication caused by anthropogenic nutrient pollution has become one of the most severe threats to water bodies. Nutrients enter water bodies from atmospheric precipitation, industrial and domestic wastewaters and surface runoff from agricultural and forest areas. As point pollution has been significantly reduced in developed countries in recent decades, agricultural non-point sources have been increasingly identified as the largest source of nutrient loading in water bodies. In this study, Lake Säkylän Pyhäjärvi and its catchment are studied as an example of a long-term, voluntary-based, co-operative model of lake and catchment management. Lake Pyhäjärvi is located in the centre of an intensive agricultural area in southwestern Finland. More than 20 professional fishermen operate in the lake area, and the lake is used as a drinking water source and for various recreational activities. Lake Pyhäjärvi is a good example of a large and shallow lake that suffers from eutrophication and is subject to measures to improve this undesired state under changing conditions. Climate change is one of the most important challenges faced by Lake Pyhäjärvi and other water bodies. The results show that climatic variation affects the amounts of runoff and nutrient loading and their timing during the year. The findings from the study area concerning warm winters and their influences on nutrient loading are in accordance with the IPCC scenarios of future climate change. In addition to nutrient reduction measures, the restoration of food chains (biomanipulation) is a key method in water quality management. The food-web structure in Lake Pyhäjärvi has, however, become disturbed due to mild winters, short ice cover and low fish catch. Ice cover that enables winter seining is extremely important to the water quality and ecosystem of Lake Pyhäjärvi, as the vendace stock is one of the key factors affecting the food web and the state of the lake. New methods for the reduction of nutrient loading and the treatment of runoff waters from agriculture, such as sand filters, were tested in field conditions. The results confirm that the filter technique is an applicable method for nutrient reduction, but further development is needed. The ability of sand filters to absorb nutrients can be improved with nutrient binding compounds, such as lime. Long-term hydrological, chemical and biological research and monitoring data on Lake Pyhäjärvi and its catchment provide a basis for water protection measures and improve our understanding of the complicated physical, chemical and biological interactions between the terrestrial and aquatic realms. In addition to measurements carried out in field conditions, Lake Pyhäjärvi and its catchment were studied using various modelling methods. In the calibration and validation of models, long-term and wide-ranging time series data proved to be valuable. Collaboration between researchers, modellers and local water managers further improves the reliability and usefulness of models. Lake Pyhäjärvi and its catchment can also be regarded as a good research laboratory from the point of view of the Baltic Sea. The main problem in both of them is eutrophication caused by excess nutrients, and nutrient loading has to be reduced – especially from agriculture. Mitigation measures are also similar in both cases.

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This study aimed at assessing the level of weed infestation indifferent areas that were submitted to different soil management for 16 years. Four management systems were studied: (1) agriculture only under conventional tillage system; (2) agriculture only under no-till system; (3) crop-livestock integrationcrop-livestock integration; (4) livestock only. These areas were sampled at three soil depths (0-5, 5-10 and 10-15 cm), and soil was stored in plastic pots and taken to a greenhouse, where soil moisture and weight were standardized. Soil was kept near 70% moisture field capacity, being revolved every 20 days when all seedling emerged from soil were counted, identified and collected for dry mass assessment. The soil coverage by weeds, number of weed seedlings and dry mass of the weedy community were assessed. A phytoecological analysis was conducted. Weed composition is differentdifferent among management systems after 16 years. Areas with livestock showed much smaller number of weed species in comparison to systems where only grain crops are grown. The presence of livestock affects the potential of germination of soil seed bank. Agriculture systems are similar in terms of weed composition along soil profile, while systems involving livestock show little relation in what regards such sampled depths. Conservationist models of land exploration contribute to reduce severity of weed species occurrence in the long term.

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Significant improvements have been noted in heart transplantation with the advent of cyclosporine. However, cyclosporine use is associated with significant side effects, such as chronic renal failure. We were interested in evaluating the incidence of long-term renal dysfunction in heart transplant recipients. Fifty-three heart transplant recipients were enrolled in the study. Forty-three patients completed the entire evaluation and follow-up. Glomerular (serum creatinine, creatinine clearance measured, and creatinine clearance calculated) and tubular functions (urinary retinol-binding protein, uRBP) were re-analyzed after 18 months. At the enrollment time, the prevalence of renal failure ranged from 37.7 to 54% according to criteria used to define it (serum creatinine > or = 1.5 mg/dL and creatinine clearance <60 mL/min). Mean serum creatinine was 1.61 ± 1.31 mg/dL (range 0.7 to 9.8 mg/dL) and calculated and measured creatinine clearances were 67.7 ± 25.9 and 61.18 ± 25.04 mL min-1 (1.73 m²)-1, respectively. Sixteen of the 43 patients who completed the follow-up (37.2%) had tubular dysfunction detected by increased levels of uRBP (median 1.06, 0.412-6.396 mg/dL). Eleven of the 16 patients (68.7%) with elevated uRBP had poorer renal function after 18 months of follow-up, compared with only eight of the 27 patients (29.6%) with normal uRBP (RR = 3.47, P = 0.0095). Interestingly, cyclosporine trough levels were not different between patients with or without tubular and glomerular dysfunction. Renal function impairment is common after heart transplantation. Tubular dysfunction, assessed by uRBP, correlates with a worsening of glomerular filtration and can be a useful tool for early detection of renal dysfunction.

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INTRODUTION: Steroid resistant idiopathic nephrotic syndrome (SRINS) in children is one of the leading causes of progression to chronic kidney disease stage V (CKD V)/end stage renal disease (ESRD). OBJECTIVE: The aim of this retrospective study is to evaluate the efficacy of immunosuppressive drugs (IS) and to identify risk factors for progression to ESRD in this population. METHODS: Clinical and biochemical variables at presentation, early or late steroid resistance, histological pattern and response to cyclosporine A (CsA) and cyclophosfamide (CP) were reviewed in 136 children with SRINS. The analyzed outcome was the progression to ESRD. Univariate as well as multivariate Cox-regression analysis were performed. RESULTS: Median age at onset was 5.54 years (0.67-17.22) and median follow up time was 6.1 years (0.25-30.83). Early steroid-resistance was observed in 114 patients and late resistance in 22. Resistance to CP and CsA was 62.9% and 35% respectively. At last follow-up 57 patients reached ESRD. The renal survival rate was 71.5%, 58.4%, 55.3%, 35.6% and 28.5% at 5, 10, 15, 20 and 25 years respectively. Univariate analysis demonstrated that older age at onset, early steroid-resistance, hematuria, hypertension, focal segmental glomerulosclerosis (FSGS), and resistance to IS were risk factors for ESRD. The Cox proportional-hazards regression identified CsAresistance and FSGS as the only predictors for ESRD. CONCLUSION: Our findings showed that CsA-resistance and FSGS were risk factors for ESRD.

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This review will focus on long-term outcomes after acute kidney injury (AKI). Surviving AKI patients have a higher late mortality compared with those admitted without AKI. Recent studies have claimed that long-term mortality in patients after AKI varied from 15% to 74% and older age, presence of previous co-morbidities, and the incomplete recovery of renal function have been identified as risk factors for reduced survival. AKI is also associated with progression to chronic kidney (CKD) disease and the decline of renal function at hospital discharge and the number and severity of AKI episodes have been associated with progression to CKD. IN the most studies, recovery of renal function is defined as non-dependence on renal replacement therapy which is probably too simplistic and it is expected in 60-70% of survivors by 90 days. Further studies are needed to explore the long-term prognosis of AKI patients.

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The purpose of the current undertaking was to study the electrophysiological properties of the sleep onset period (SOP) in order to gain understanding into the persistent sleep difficulties of those who complain of insomnia following mild traumatic brain injury (MTBI). While many believe that symptoms of post concussion syndrome (PCS) following MTBI resolve within 6 to 12 months, there are a number of people who complain of persistent sleep difficulty. Two models were proposed which hypothesize alternate electrophysiological presentations of the insomnia complaints of those sustaining a MTBI: 1) Analyses of standard polysomnography (PSG) sleep parameters were conducted in order to determine if the sleep difficulties of the MTBI population were similar to that of idiopathic insomniacs (i.e. greater proportion ofREM sleep, reduced delta sleep); 2) Power spectral analysis was conducted over the SOP to determine if the sleep onset signature of those with MTBI would be similar to psychophysiological insomniacs (characterized by increased cortical arousal). Finally, exploratory analyses examined whether the sleep difficulties associated with MTBI could be explained by increases in variability of the power spectral data. Data were collected from 9 individuals who had sustained a MTBI 6 months to 5 years earlier and reported sleep difficulties that had arisen within the month subsequent to injury and persisted to the present. The control group consisted of 9 individuals who had experienced neither sleep difficulties, nor MTBI. Previous to spending 3 consecutive uninterrupted nights in the sleep lab, subjects completed questionnaires regarding sleep difficulties, adaptive functioning, and personality.

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This report considers three case studies (namely diabetes, dementia and obesity) for setting up a framework to assess the systemic influences of technologies in the long-term care milieu, using a problem-driven approach in relation to health care. Such technologies could be an enabling factor or a catalyser of advances taking place in the health and social sectors. They offer opportunities to support and amplify relevant organisational changes in the context of innovative care models, which stem from overall policies and regulations of a national or regional jurisdiction to address the future sustainability of health and social care.

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Seed of 15 species of Brassicaceae were stored hermetically in a genebank (at -5 degrees C to -10 degrees C with c. 3% moisture content) for 40 years. Samples were withdrawn at intervals for germination tests. Many accessions showed an increase in ability to germinate over this period. due to loss in dormancy. Nevertheless, some dormancy remained after 40 years' storage and was broken by pre-applied gibberellic acid. The poorest seed survival occurred in Hormatophylla spinosa. Even in this accession the ability to germinate declined by only 7% between 1966 and 2006. Comparison of seeds from 1966 stored for 40 years with those collected anew in 2006 from the original sampling sites, where possible, showed few differences, other than a tendency (7 of 9 accessions) for the latter to show greater dormancy. These results for hermetic storage at sub-zero temperatures and low moisture contents confirm that long-term seed storage can provide a successful technology for ex situ plant biodiversity conservation.

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The suitability of cryopreservation for the secure, long-term storage of the rare and endangered species Cosmos atrosanguineus was investigated. Using encapsulation/dehydration of shoot tips in alginate strips, survival rates of up to 100 % and shoot regeneration of up to 35 % were achieved. Light and electron microscopy studies indicated that cellular damage to some regions of the shoot tip during the freeze/thaw procedure was high, although cell survival in and around the meristematic region allowed shoot tip regeneration. The genetic fingerprinting technique, amplified fragment length polymorphisms (AFLPs), showed that no detectable genetic variation was present between material of C. atrosanguineus at the time of initiation into tissue culture and that which had been cryopreserved, stored in liquid nitrogen for 12 months and regenerated. Wearied plantlets that were grown under glasshouse conditions exhibited no morphological variation from non-frozen controls. (C) 2003 Annals of Botany Company.

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Cryopreservation using encapsulation-dehydration was developed for the long-term conservation of cocoa (Theobroma cacao L.) germplasm. Survival of individually encapsulated somatic embryos after desiccation and cryopreservation was achieved through optimization of cryoprotectants (abscisic acid (ABA) and sugar), duration of osmotic and evaporative dehydration, and embryo development stage. Up to 63% of the genotype SPA4 early-cotyledonary somatic embryos survived cryopreservation following 7 days preculture with 1 M sucrose and 4 h silica exposure (16% moisture content in bead). This optimized protocol was successfully applied to three other genotypes, e.g. EET272, IMC14 and AMAZ12, with recovery frequencies of 25, 40 and 72%, respectively (but the latter two genotypes using 0.75 M sucrose). Recovered SPA4 somatic embryos converted to plants at a rate of 33% and the regenerated plants were phenotypically comparable to non-cryopreserved somatic embryo-derived plants.

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The suitability of cryopreservation for the secure, long-term storage of the rare and endangered species Cosmos atrosanguineus was investigated. Using encapsulation/dehydration of shoot tips in alginate strips, survival rates of up to 100 % and shoot regeneration of up to 35 % were achieved. Light and electron microscopy studies indicated that cellular damage to some regions of the shoot tip during the freeze/thaw procedure was high, although cell survival in and around the meristematic region allowed shoot tip regeneration. The genetic fingerprinting technique, amplified fragment length polymorphisms (AFLPs), showed that no detectable genetic variation was present between material of C. atrosanguineus at the time of initiation into tissue culture and that which had been cryopreserved, stored in liquid nitrogen for 12 months and regenerated. Weaned plantlets that were grown under glasshouse conditions exhibited no morphological variation from non-frozen controls.

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Human breast cancer cells (MCF-7, T-47-D and ZR-75-1) can adapt to circumvent any reduced growth rate during long-term oestrogen deprivation, and this provides three model systems to investigate mechanisms of endocrine resistance in breast cancer. In this paper we report consistent differences in the effects of three growth inhibitors following long-term oestrogen deprivation in all three cell models. Long-term oestrogen deprivation of MCF-7, T-47-D and ZR-75-1 cells resulted in reduced growth inhibition by PD98059 (2–10 µg/ml), implying a loss of dependence on mitogen-activated protein kinase pathways for growth. The growth inhibitor LY294002 (2–10 µM) inhibited growth of both oestrogen-maintained and oestrogen-deprived cells with similar dose–responses, implying continued similar dependence on phosphoinositide 3-kinase (PI3K) pathways with no alteration after adaptation to oestrogen independent growth. However, by contrast, long-term oestrogen deprivation resulted in an increased sensitivity to growth inhibition by rapamycin, which was not reduced by readdition of oestradiol. The enhanced inhibition of long-term oestrogen-deprived MCF-7-ED, T-47-D-ED and ZR-75-1-ED cell growth by combining rapamycin with LY294002 at concentrations where each alone had little effect, offers preclinical support to the development of therapeutic combinations of rapamycin analogues with other PI3K inhibitors in endocrine-resistant breast cancer.

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We compared output from 3 dynamic process-based models (DMs: ECOSSE, MILLENNIA and the Durham Carbon Model) and 9 bioclimatic envelope models (BCEMs; including BBOG ensemble and PEATSTASH) ranging from simple threshold to semi-process-based models. Model simulations were run at 4 British peatland sites using historical climate data and climate projections under a medium (A1B) emissions scenario from the 11-RCM (regional climate model) ensemble underpinning UKCP09. The models showed that blanket peatlands are vulnerable to projected climate change; however, predictions varied between models as well as between sites. All BCEMs predicted a shift from presence to absence of a climate associated with blanket peat, where the sites with the lowest total annual precipitation were closest to the presence/absence threshold. DMs showed a more variable response. ECOSSE predicted a decline in net C sink and shift to net C source by the end of this century. The Durham Carbon Model predicted a smaller decline in the net C sink strength, but no shift to net C source. MILLENNIA predicted a slight overall increase in the net C sink. In contrast to the BCEM projections, the DMs predicted that the sites with coolest temperatures and greatest total annual precipitation showed the largest change in carbon sinks. In this model inter-comparison, the greatest variation in model output in response to climate change projections was not between the BCEMs and DMs but between the DMs themselves, because of different approaches to modelling soil organic matter pools and decomposition amongst other processes. The difference in the sign of the response has major implications for future climate feedbacks, climate policy and peatland management. Enhanced data collection, in particular monitoring peatland response to current change, would significantly improve model development and projections of future change.

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Explosive volcanic eruptions cause episodic negative radiative forcing of the climate system. Using coupled atmosphere-ocean general circulation models (AOGCMs) subjected to historical forcing since the late nineteenth century, previous authors have shown that each large volcanic eruption is associated with a sudden drop in ocean heat content and sea-level from which the subsequent recovery is slow. Here we show that this effect may be an artefact of experimental design, caused by the AOGCMs not having been spun up to a steady state with volcanic forcing before the historical integrations begin. Because volcanic forcing has a long-term negative average, a cooling tendency is thus imposed on the ocean in the historical simulation. We recommend that an extra experiment be carried out in parallel to the historical simulation, with constant time-mean historical volcanic forcing, in order to correct for this effect and avoid misinterpretation of ocean heat content changes

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Background: The effects of landscape modifications on the long-term persistence of wild animal populations is of crucial importance to wildlife managers and conservation biologists, but obtaining experimental evidence using real landscapes is usually impossible. To circumvent this problem we used individual-based models (IBMs) of interacting animals in experimental modifications of a real Danish landscape. The models incorporate as much as possible of the behaviour and ecology of four species with contrasting life-history characteristics: skylark (Alauda arvensis), vole (Microtus agrestis), a ground beetle (Bembidion lampros) and a linyphiid spider (Erigone atra). This allows us to quantify the population implications of experimental modifications of landscape configuration and composition. Methodology/Principal Findings: Starting with a real agricultural landscape, we progressively reduced landscape complexity by (i) homogenizing habitat patch shapes, (ii) randomizing the locations of the patches, and (iii) randomizing the size of the patches. The first two steps increased landscape fragmentation. We assessed the effects of these manipulations on the long-term persistence of animal populations by measuring equilibrium population sizes and time to recovery after disturbance. Patch rearrangement and the presence of corridors had a large effect on the population dynamics of species whose local success depends on the surrounding terrain. Landscape modifications that reduced population sizes increased recovery times in the short-dispersing species, making small populations vulnerable to increasing disturbance. The species that were most strongly affected by large disturbances fluctuated little in population sizes in years when no perturbations took place. Significance: Traditional approaches to the management and conservation of populations use either classical methods of population analysis, which fail to adequately account for the spatial configurations of landscapes, or landscape ecology, which accounts for landscape structure but has difficulty predicting the dynamics of populations living in them. Here we show how realistic and replicable individual-based models can bridge the gap between non-spatial population theory and non-dynamic landscape ecology. A major strength of the approach is its ability to identify population vulnerabilities not detected by standard population viability analyses.