994 resultados para LATE-PHASE
Resumo:
This study uses the widths, the spacing and the grain-size pattern of Oligo/Miocene alluvial fan conglomerates in the central segment of the Swiss Alpine foreland to reconstruct the topographic development of the Alps. These data are analysed with models of longitudinal stream profile development, to propose that the Alpine topography evolved from an early transient state where streams adjusted to rock uplift by headward retreat, to a mature phase where any changes in rock uplift were accommodated by vertical incision. The first stage comprises the time interval between ca 31 Ma and 22 Ma, when the Alpine streams deposited many small fans with a lateral spacing of <30 km in the north Alpine foreland. As the range evolved, the streams joined and the fans coalesced into a few large depositional systems with a lateral spacing of ca 80 to 100 km at 22 Ma. The models used here suggest that the overall elevation of the Alps increased rapidly within <5 Myr. The variability in pebble size increased either due to variations in sediment supply, enhanced orographic effects, or preferentially due to a change towards a stormier palaeoclimate. By 22 Ma, only two large rivers carried material into the foreland fans, suggesting that the major Alpine streams had established themselves. This second phase of stable drainage network was maintained until ca 5 Ma, when the uplift and erosion of the Molasse started and streams were redirected both in the Alps and in the foreland. This study illustrates that sedimentological archives of foreland basins can be used to reconstruct the chronology of the topographic development of mountain belts. It is suggested that the finite elevation of mountainous landscapes is reached early during orogeny and can be maintained for millions of years, provided that erosion is efficient.
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This dissertation explores phase I dose-finding designs in cancer trials from three perspectives: the alternative Bayesian dose-escalation rules, a design based on a time-to-dose-limiting toxicity (DLT) model, and a design based on a discrete-time multi-state (DTMS) model. We list alternative Bayesian dose-escalation rules and perform a simulation study for the intra-rule and inter-rule comparisons based on two statistical models to identify the most appropriate rule under certain scenarios. We provide evidence that all the Bayesian rules outperform the traditional ``3+3'' design in the allocation of patients and selection of the maximum tolerated dose. The design based on a time-to-DLT model uses patients' DLT information over multiple treatment cycles in estimating the probability of DLT at the end of treatment cycle 1. Dose-escalation decisions are made whenever a cycle-1 DLT occurs, or two months after the previous check point. Compared to the design based on a logistic regression model, the new design shows more safety benefits for trials in which more late-onset toxicities are expected. As a trade-off, the new design requires more patients on average. The design based on a discrete-time multi-state (DTMS) model has three important attributes: (1) Toxicities are categorized over a distribution of severity levels, (2) Early toxicity may inform dose escalation, and (3) No suspension is required between accrual cohorts. The proposed model accounts for the difference in the importance of the toxicity severity levels and for transitions between toxicity levels. We compare the operating characteristics of the proposed design with those from a similar design based on a fully-evaluated model that directly models the maximum observed toxicity level within the patients' entire assessment window. We describe settings in which, under comparable power, the proposed design shortens the trial. The proposed design offers more benefit compared to the alternative design as patient accrual becomes slower.
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BACKGROUND The optimal management of high-risk prostate cancer remains uncertain. In this study we assessed the safety and efficacy of a novel multimodal treatment paradigm for high-risk prostate cancer. METHODS This was a prospective phase II trial including 35 patients with newly diagnosed high-risk localized or locally advanced prostate cancer treated with high-dose intensity-modulated radiation therapy preceded or not by radical prostatectomy, concurrent intensified-dose docetaxel-based chemotherapy and long-term androgen deprivation therapy. Primary endpoint was acute and late toxicity evaluated with the Common Terminology Criteria for Adverse Events version 3.0. Secondary endpoint was biochemical and clinical recurrence-free survival explored with the Kaplan-Meier method. RESULTS Acute gastro-intestinal and genito-urinary toxicity was grade 2 in 23% and 20% of patients, and grade 3 in 9% and 3% of patients, respectively. Acute blood/bone marrow toxicity was grade 2 in 20% of patients. No acute grade ≥ 4 toxicity was observed. Late gastro-intestinal and genito-urinary toxicity was grade 2 in 9% of patients each. No late grade ≥ 3 toxicity was observed. Median follow-up was 63 months (interquartile range 31-79). Actuarial 5-year biochemical and clinical recurrence-free survival rate was 55% (95% confidence interval, 35-75%) and 70% (95% confidence interval, 52-88%), respectively. CONCLUSIONS In our phase II trial testing a novel multimodal treatment paradigm for high-risk prostate cancer, toxicity was acceptably low and mid-term oncological outcome was good. This treatment paradigm, thus, may warrant further evaluation in phase III randomized trials.
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Current practice in Switzerland for the mobilization of autologous stem cells in patients with myeloma is combining vinorelbine chemotherapy and granulocyte-colony stimulating factor (G-CSF) cytokine stimulation. We prospectively investigated adding intravenous plerixafor to the vinorelbine/G-CSF combination (VGP), and compared it with vinorelbine/plerixafor (VP) and G-CSF/plerixafor (GP) combinations. In a final cohort (VP-late), plerixafor was given on the first day of CD34 + cells increasing to > 15 000/mL peripheral blood. Four consecutive cohorts of 10 patients with myeloma were studied. We observed that intravenously administered plerixafor can be safely combined with vinorelbine/G-CSF. VGP was superior in mobilizing peripheral stem and progenitor cells compared to the three double combinations (VP, GP and VP-late), and GP mobilized better than VP. Our data indicate that the triple combination of VGP is an efficient strategy to collect autologous CD34 + cells, with G-CSF contributing predominantly in this concept. Plerixafor can be safely added to G-CSF and/or vinorelbine chemotherapy.
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BACKGROUND In a phase 3, randomised, non-inferiority trial, accelerated partial breast irradiation (APBI) for patients with stage 0, I, and IIA breast cancer who underwent breast-conserving treatment was compared with whole-breast irradiation. Here, we present 5-year follow-up results. METHODS We did a phase 3, randomised, non-inferiority trial at 16 hospitals and medical centres in seven European countries. 1184 patients with low-risk invasive and ductal carcinoma in situ treated with breast-conserving surgery were centrally randomised to either whole-breast irradiation or APBI using multicatheter brachytherapy. The primary endpoint was local recurrence. Analysis was done according to treatment received. This trial is registered with ClinicalTrials.gov, number NCT00402519. FINDINGS Between April 20, 2004, and July 30, 2009, 551 patients had whole-breast irradiation with tumour-bed boost and 633 patients received APBI using interstitial multicatheter brachytherapy. At 5-year follow-up, nine patients treated with APBI and five patients receiving whole-breast irradiation had a local recurrence; the cumulative incidence of local recurrence was 1·44% (95% CI 0·51-2·38) with APBI and 0·92% (0·12-1·73) with whole-breast irradiation (difference 0·52%, 95% CI -0·72 to 1·75; p=0·42). No grade 4 late side-effects were reported. The 5-year risk of grade 2-3 late side-effects to the skin was 3·2% with APBI versus 5·7% with whole-breast irradiation (p=0·08), and 5-year risk of grade 2-3 subcutaneous tissue late side-effects was 7·6% versus 6·3% (p=0·53). The risk of severe (grade 3) fibrosis at 5 years was 0·2% with whole-breast irradiation and 0% with APBI (p=0·46). INTERPRETATION The difference between treatments was below the relevance margin of 3 percentage points. Therefore, adjuvant APBI using multicatheter brachytherapy after breast-conserving surgery in patients with early breast cancer is not inferior to adjuvant whole-breast irradiation with respect to 5-year local control, disease-free survival, and overall survival. FUNDING German Cancer Aid.
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My dissertation focuses mainly on Bayesian adaptive designs for phase I and phase II clinical trials. It includes three specific topics: (1) proposing a novel two-dimensional dose-finding algorithm for biological agents, (2) developing Bayesian adaptive screening designs to provide more efficient and ethical clinical trials, and (3) incorporating missing late-onset responses to make an early stopping decision. Treating patients with novel biological agents is becoming a leading trend in oncology. Unlike cytotoxic agents, for which toxicity and efficacy monotonically increase with dose, biological agents may exhibit non-monotonic patterns in their dose-response relationships. Using a trial with two biological agents as an example, we propose a phase I/II trial design to identify the biologically optimal dose combination (BODC), which is defined as the dose combination of the two agents with the highest efficacy and tolerable toxicity. A change-point model is used to reflect the fact that the dose-toxicity surface of the combinational agents may plateau at higher dose levels, and a flexible logistic model is proposed to accommodate the possible non-monotonic pattern for the dose-efficacy relationship. During the trial, we continuously update the posterior estimates of toxicity and efficacy and assign patients to the most appropriate dose combination. We propose a novel dose-finding algorithm to encourage sufficient exploration of untried dose combinations in the two-dimensional space. Extensive simulation studies show that the proposed design has desirable operating characteristics in identifying the BODC under various patterns of dose-toxicity and dose-efficacy relationships. Trials of combination therapies for the treatment of cancer are playing an increasingly important role in the battle against this disease. To more efficiently handle the large number of combination therapies that must be tested, we propose a novel Bayesian phase II adaptive screening design to simultaneously select among possible treatment combinations involving multiple agents. Our design is based on formulating the selection procedure as a Bayesian hypothesis testing problem in which the superiority of each treatment combination is equated to a single hypothesis. During the trial conduct, we use the current values of the posterior probabilities of all hypotheses to adaptively allocate patients to treatment combinations. Simulation studies show that the proposed design substantially outperforms the conventional multi-arm balanced factorial trial design. The proposed design yields a significantly higher probability for selecting the best treatment while at the same time allocating substantially more patients to efficacious treatments. The proposed design is most appropriate for the trials combining multiple agents and screening out the efficacious combination to be further investigated. The proposed Bayesian adaptive phase II screening design substantially outperformed the conventional complete factorial design. Our design allocates more patients to better treatments while at the same time providing higher power to identify the best treatment at the end of the trial. Phase II trial studies usually are single-arm trials which are conducted to test the efficacy of experimental agents and decide whether agents are promising to be sent to phase III trials. Interim monitoring is employed to stop the trial early for futility to avoid assigning unacceptable number of patients to inferior treatments. We propose a Bayesian single-arm phase II design with continuous monitoring for estimating the response rate of the experimental drug. To address the issue of late-onset responses, we use a piece-wise exponential model to estimate the hazard function of time to response data and handle the missing responses using the multiple imputation approach. We evaluate the operating characteristics of the proposed method through extensive simulation studies. We show that the proposed method reduces the total length of the trial duration and yields desirable operating characteristics for different physician-specified lower bounds of response rate with different true response rates.
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There are two practical challenges in the phase I clinical trial conduct: lack of transparency to physicians, and the late onset toxicity. In my dissertation, Bayesian approaches are used to address these two problems in clinical trial designs. The proposed simple optimal designs cast the dose finding problem as a decision making process for dose escalation and deescalation. The proposed designs minimize the incorrect decision error rate to find the maximum tolerated dose (MTD). For the late onset toxicity problem, a Bayesian adaptive dose-finding design for drug combination is proposed. The dose-toxicity relationship is modeled using the Finney model. The unobserved delayed toxicity outcomes are treated as missing data and Bayesian data augment is employed to handle the resulting missing data. Extensive simulation studies have been conducted to examine the operating characteristics of the proposed designs and demonstrated the designs' good performances in various practical scenarios.^
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The early Late Pliocene (3.6 to ~3.0 million years ago) is the last extended interval in Earth's history when atmospheric CO2 concentrations were comparable to today's and global climate was warmer. Yet a severe global glaciation during marine isotope stage (MIS) M2 interrupted this phase of global warmth ~3.30 million years ago, and is seen as a premature attempt of the climate system to establish an ice-age world. Our geochemical and palynological records from five marine sediment cores along a Caribbean to eastern North Atlantic transect show that increased Pacific-to-Atlantic flow via the Central American Seaway weakened the North Atlantic Current (NAC) and attendant northward heat transport prior to MIS M2. The consequent cooling of the northern high latitude oceans permitted expansion of the Greenland ice sheet during MIS M2, despite near-modern atmospheric CO2 concentrations. Before and after MIS M2, heat transport via the NAC was crucial in maintaining warm climates comparable to those predicted for the end of this century.
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A Mediterranean composite sedimentary record was analyzed for Ba/Ca ratios on carbonate shells of Orbulina universa planktonic foraminifer (Ba/Ca)carb providing the opportunity to study and assess the extent of freshwater inputs on the basin and possible impacts on its dynamics during the Tortonian to Recent period. A number of scanning electron microscope analyses and auxiliary trace element measurements (Mn, Sr, and Mg), obtained from the same samples, exclude important diagenetic effects on the studied biogenic carbonates and corroborate the reliability of (Ba/Ca)carb ratios in foraminifera calcite as indicators of seawater source components during the studied interval. A long-term trend with (Ba/Ca)carb values shifting from ~7 to 3 µmol/mol from the base of the Tortonian to the top of the Messinian is observed. The interval of the late Messinian salinity crisis, where biogenic carbonates are missing or strongly diagenized, represents a crucial passage not monitored in our record. At the base of the Pliocene, up to about 4.7 Ma, the (Ba/Ca)carb record shows a decreasing trend from ~4 µmol/mol stabilizing itself to an about constant value of 0.9 ± 0.3 µmol/mol for the whole Plio-Pleistocene interval. These results suggest a dramatic change in the continental runoff values, up to ~3-16 times higher during part of the late Neogene (Tortonian-early Pliocene), with a possible profound modification in the physical dynamics of the Mediterranean basin. First-order mass balance equations used to estimate barium and salinity budgets in the Mediterranean Sea during the late Miocene-early Pliocene interval support the hypothesis of an active connection of the basin with the Paratethys region and of a definitive restriction at the base of the Pliocene after about 0.7 Ma from the well-known Messinian Lagomare phase. They also open intriguing scenarios on possible circulation shifts during the Neogene.
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A high-resolution multiproxy geochemical approach was applied to the sediments of Laguna Potrok Aike in an attempt to reconstruct moist and dry periods during the past 16 000 years in southeastern Patagonia. The age-depth model is inferred from AMS 14C dates and tephrochronology, and suggests moist conditions during the Lateglacial and early Holocene (16 000-8700 cal. BP) interrupted by drier conditions before the beginning of the Holocene (13 200-11 400 cal. BP). Data also imply that this period was a major warm phase in southeastern Patagonia and was approximately contemporaneous with the Younger Dryas chronozone in the Northern Hemisphere (12 700-11 500 cal. BP). After 8650 cal. BP a major drought may have caused the lowest lake level of the record. Since 7300 cal. BP, the lake level rose and was variable until the 'Little Ice Age', which was the dominant humid period after 8650 cal. BP.
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Planktonic foraminiferal assemblages from the upper Pleistocene part of Hole 1087A (0 to 12.1 meters below seafloor) are investigated to assess the role of global and local climate changes on surface circulation in the southern Benguela region. The benthic stable isotope record indicates that the studied interval is representative of the last four climatic cycles, that is, down to marine isotope Stage (MIS) 12. The species assemblages bear a clear transitional to subpolar character, with Neogloboquadrina pachyderma (d), Globorotalia inflata, and Globigerina bulloides, in order of decreasing abundance, as the dominant taxa. This species association presently characterizes the mixing domain of old upwelled and open ocean waters, seaward of the Benguela upwelling cells. Abundance variation of the dominant foraminiferal species roughly follows a glacial-interglacial pattern down to MIS 8, suggesting an alternation of upwelling strength and associated seaward extension of the belt of upwelled water as a response to global climate changes. This pattern is interrupted from ~250 ka down to MIS 12, where the phase relationship with global climate is ill defined and might be interpreted as a local response of the southern Benguela region to the mid-Brunhes event. Of particular interest is a single pulse of newly upwelled waters at the location of Site 1087 during early MIS 9 as indicated by a peak abundance of sinistral N. pachyderma (s). Variable input of warm, salty Indian Ocean thermocline waters into the southeast Atlantic, a key component of the Atlantic heat conveyor, is indicated by abundance changes of the tropical taxon Globorotalia menardii. From this tracer, we suggest that interocean exchange was hardly interrupted throughout the last 460 k.y., but was most effective at glacial terminations, particularly during Terminations I and II, as well as during the upper part of MIS 12. This maximum input of Indian Ocean waters around the southern tip of Africa is associated with the reseeding of G. menardii in the tropical Atlantic.
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A high-resolution record of foraminiferal fragmentation (a dissolution indicator) for the last 250 k.y. (isotopic Stages 1 to 7) is identified in the upper 61.9 m of Ocean Drilling Program (ODP) Hole 828A, west Vanuatu. This record is comparable in detail to the atmospheric CO2 record and the d18O stack. Phase shifts between preservation spikes and maximum ice volumes (d18O of Globigerinoides sacculifer) are analogous to those on Ontong Java Plateau. Mass spectrometer (AMS14C) dating of a sample taken at the base of dissolution cycle B1 and the position of the last glacial maximum indicates a lag in time of ~8 k.y. in the Vanuatu region for the last glacial termination. When dissolution spikes are compared with minimum ice volumes there is no phase shift for the last two glacial terminations. The difference between Vanuatu and Ontong Java Plateau may be explained by local CO2 sinks and the interplay between intermediate and deep water masses. Terrigenous input increasingly affected sediment of Hole 828A on the North d'Entrecasteaux Ridge (NDR) as it approached Espiritu Santo Island. Mud and silt suspended in mid-water flows become important after 125 ka, while turbidites bypass the New Hebrides Trench only towards the last glacial maximum (LGM). Terrigenous supply seems to affect the lysocline profile that changed from an "open ocean" to a "near continent" type, thus favoring dissolution. Fragmentation of planktonic foraminifers is a more sensitive indicator of lysocline variations than is foraminiferal susceptibility to dissolution, the foraminiferal dissolution index, the abundance of benthic foraminifers, or CaCO3 content. A modern foraminiferal lysocline for the neighboring area (between 10°S and 30°S, and 160°E and 180°E) is found at 3.1 km below sea level, compared to west Vanuatu where it is shallower. The past lysocline level was deeper than 3086 m during intervals of dissolution minima, and ranged from ~2550 to 3000 m during intervals of dissolution maxima. The high sedimentation rates (in the order of 10 to 50 cm/k.y.) found in Hole 828A offer a great potential for future high-resolution studies either in this hole or other western localities along the NDR. Areas of high sedimentation near continental regions have been discarded for paleoceanographic and/or paleoclimatic studies. Nonetheless, conditions analogous to those found in Hole 828A are expected to occur in many trench areas around the world where mid-water flows have preserved as yet undiscovered fine high-resolution sedimentary records.
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The late Quaternary organic-walled dinoflagellate cyst record of Site 1233 (41°S, offshore Chile) was studied with a ?200 year resolution spanning the last 25,000 years. The study provides the first continuous record of sub-recent and recent dinoflagellate cysts in the Southeast (SE) Pacific. Major changes in the composition of the cyst association, cyst concentration and morphology of Operculodinium centrocarpum reflect changes in sea surface temperature (SST), sea surface salinity (SSS), palaeoproductivity and upwelling intensity. These changes can be associated with latitudinal shifts of the circumpolar frontal systems. The high cyst concentration, high Brigantedinium spp. abundances, low species diversity and the occurrence of certain cold water species are supportive for a 7-10° equatorward shift of the Antarctic Circumpolar Current (ACC) during the coldest phase of the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM) between 25 and 21.1 cal ka BP. Deglacial warming initiated at ~18.6 cal ka BP. Termination I (18.6-11.1 cal ka BP) is interrupted by an unstable period of extreme seasonality, rather than a cooling event, between 14.4 and 13.2 cal ka BP, synchronous with the Antarctic Cold Reversal (ACR). The Holocene Maximum is observed between 11.6 and 9.8 cal ka BP and is typified by the most southward position of the northern margin of the ACC. A cooling phase occurred during the early Holocene (until ~7 cal ka BP) and during the last ~0.8 ka. Our data indicates that the SE Pacific (41°S) climate has been influenced over the whole record by changes in the Southern Hemisphere (SH) high-latitudes, while during the mid to late Holocene, also a tropical forcing mechanism was involved, including the El Niño Southern Oscillation and the variable Hadley cell intensity. Furthermore, this study showed a relationship between the variable morphology of the spines/processes of O. centrocarpum and the combined variation of sea surface salinity and temperature (SSS/SST-ratio).
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Quantitative radiolarian assemblage analysis has been conducted on middle and upper Eocene sediments (Zones RP16 to RP18) from Ocean Drilling Program Site 1052 in order to establish the radiolarian magnetobiochronology and determine the nature of the faunal turnover across the middle/late Eocene boundary in the western North Atlantic Ocean. We recognize and calibrate forty-five radiolarian bioevents to the magneto- and cyclo-stratigraphy from Site 1052 to enhance the biochronologic resolution for the middle and late Eocene. Our data is compared to sites in the equatorial Pacific (Leg 199) to access the diachrony of biostratigraphic events. Eleven bioevents are good biostratigraphic markers for tropical/subtropical locations (south of 30°N). The primary markers (lowest occurrences of Cryptocarpium azyx and Calocyclas bandyca) which are tropical zonal boundary markers for Zones RP17 and RP18 provide robust biohorizons for correlation and age determination from the low to middle latitudes and between the Atlantic and Pacific Oceans. Some other radiolarian bioevents are highly diachronous (<1 million years) between oceanic basins. A significant faunal turnover of radiolarians is recognized within Chron C17n.3n (37.7 Ma) where 13 radiolarian species disappear rapidly in less than 100 kyr and 4 new species originate. The radiolarian faunal turnover coincides with a major extinction in planktonic foraminifera. We name the turnover phase, the Middle/Late Eocene Turnover (MLET). Assemblage analysis reveals the MLET to be associated with a decrease in low-mid latitude taxa and increase in cosmopolitan taxa and radiolarian accumulation rates. The MLET might be related to increased biological productivity rather than to surface-water cooling.
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The late Quaternary sequence off eastern South Island, New Zealand, consists of ~100 m of alternating bluish gray pelagic oozes and greenish gray hemipelagic oozes that extend uninterruptedly back to the Brunhes/Matuyama boundary (0.73 m.y.). A very high resolution (~2400 yr.) record of sediment texture, calcium carbonate content, and planktonic and benthic foraminiferal oxygen and carbon isotope composition demonstrates an in-phase cyclical fluctuation between the sedimentary parameters that closely correspond to the pelagic-hemipelagic sedimentation cycles and the isotope composition. Pelagic oozes, formed during interglacial periods of high eustatic sea level, are characterized by calcareous microfossils, relative enrichment in sand and clay sizes, high carbonate contents, reduced delta18O values, and increased delta13C values. Hemipelagic oozes, associated with glacial episodes and lowered eustatic sea level, include common terrigenous material and siliceous microfossils, are enriched in silt sizes, have low carbonate contents, high delta18O values, and low delta13C values. The history of alpine glaciations and associated erosion of the South Island of New Zealand, as expressed by the appearance of hemipelagic oozes, can be correlated directly with the major fluctuations of Northern Hemisphere ice sheets as expressed by the influence of eustatic sea-level changes on the oxygen isotope composition of both planktonic and benthic foraminifers. This high-accumulation-rate record contains conspicuous intervals of highfrequency, high-amplitude isotope variability including the presence of multiple glacial/interglacial intervals within single isotope stages, and offers one of the best sections cored to date for detailed study of the evolution and history of climate change over the last 0.75 m.y.