Comparing predictions of extinction risk using models and subjective judgement

Models of population dynamics are commonly used to predict risks in ecology, particularly risks of population decline. There is often considerable uncertainty associated with these predictions. However, alternatives to predictions based on population models have not been assessed. We used simulation models of hypothetical species to generate the kinds of data that might typically be available to ecologists and then invited other researchers to predict risks of population declines using these data. The accuracy of the predictions was assessed by comparison with the forecasts of the original model. The researchers used either population models or subjective judgement to make their predictions. Predictions made using models were only slightly more accurate than subjective judgements of risk. However, predictions using models tended to be unbiased, while subjective judgements were biased towards over-estimation. Psychology literature suggests that the bias of subjective judgements is likely to vary somewhat unpredictably among people, depending on their stake in the outcome. This will make subjective predictions more uncertain and less transparent than those based on models. (C) 2004 Elsevier SAS. All rights reserved.

The relationship between plasma potassium concentration and muscle torque during recovery following intense exercise

The present study investigated the relationship between plasma potassium ion concentration ([K+]) and skeletal muscle torque during three different 15-min recovery periods after fatigue induced by four 30-s sprints. Four males and one female completed the multiple sprint exercise on three separate days; recovery was passive, i.e. no cycling exercise (PRec), active cycling at 30% peak oxygen consumption (V) over dot(2peak) (30% Rec) and active cycling at 60% (V) over dot(2peak) (60% Rec). Plasma [K+] was measured from blood sampled from an antecubital vein of subjects at rest and at 0, 3, 5, 10 and 15 min into each recovery. Isokinetic leg strength was measured at rest and at 1, 6, 11 and 16 min during each recovery. Following the exhaustive sprints; [K+] increased significantly from an average mean (SEM) resting value of 3.81 (0.07) mmol.l(-1) to 4.48 (0.19) mmol.l(-1) (P < 0.01). In all recovery conditions, plasma [K+] returned to resting levels within 3 min following the fourth sprint. However, in the two active recovery conditions plasma [K+] increased over the remainder of the recovery periods to 4.36 (0.12) mmol.l(-1) in the 30% Rec condition and 4.62 (0.12) mmol.l(-1) in the 60% Rec condition, the latter being significantly higher than the former (P < 0.01). The maximum torque measured following the sprints decreased significantly, on average, to 61.1 (8.36)% of peak levels (P < 0.01). After 15 min of recovery, maximum torque was highest in the 30% Rec condition at 92.13 (3.06)% of peak levels (P < 0.01), compared to 85.23 (3.64)% and 85.71 (0.82)% for the PRec and 60% Rec conditions, respectively. In contrast to the significant differences in plasma [K+] across all three recovery conditions, muscle torque recovery was significantly different in only the 30% Rec condition. In summary, recovery of peak levels of muscle torque following fatiguing exercise does not appear to follow changes in plasma [K+].

A family of cytokine-inducible inhibitors of signalling

Cytokines are secreted proteins that regulate important cellular responses such as proliferation and differentiation(1). Key events in cytokine signal transduction are well defined: cytokines induce receptor aggregation, leading to activation of members of the JAK family of cytoplasmic tyrosine kinases. In turn, members af the STAT family of transcription factors are phosphorylated, dimerize and increase the transcription of genes with STAT recognition sites in their promoters(1-4). Less is known of how cytokine signal transduction is switched off. We have cloned a complementary DNA encoding a protein SOCS-1, containing an SH2-domain, by its ability to inhibit the macrophage differentiation of M1 cells in response to interleukin-6. Expression of SOCS-1 inhibited both interleukin-6-induced receptor phosphorylation and STAT activation. We have also cloned two-relatives of SOCS-1, named SOCS-2 and SOCS-3, which together with the previously described CIS (ref. 5) form a new family of proteins. Transcription of all four SOCS genes is increased rapidly in response to interleukin-6, in vitro and in vivo, suggesting they may act in a classic negative feedback loop to regulate cytokine signal transduction.

Ramp and constant power trials produce equivalent critical power estimates

The standard critical power test protocol on the cycle prescribes a series of trials to exhaustion, each at a different but constant power setting. Recently the protocol has been modified and applied to a series of trials to exhaustion each at a different ramp incremental rate. This study was undertaken to compare critical power and anaerobic work capacity estimates in the same group of subjects when derived from the two protocols. Ten male subjects of mixed athletic ability cycled to exhaustion on eight occasions in randomized order over a 3-wk period. Four trials were performed at differing constant power settings and four trials on differing ramp incremental rates. Both critical power and anaerobic work capacity were estimated for each subject by curve fitting of the ramp model and of three versions of the constant power model. After adjusting for inter-subject variability, no significant differences were detected between critical power estimates or between anaerobic work capacity estimates from any model formulation or from the two protocols. It is concluded that both the ramp and constant power protocols produce equivalent estimates for critical power and anaerobic work capacity.

Transcriptional Errors in Human Immunodeficiency Virus Type 1 Generate Targets for T-Cell Responses

We measured T-cell responses to human immunodeficiency virus type 1 (HIV-1) cryptic epitopes encoded by regions of the viral genome not normally translated into viral proteins. T-cell responses to cryptic epitopes and to regions normally spliced out of the HIV-1 viral proteins Rev and Tat were detected in HIV-1-infected subjects.

Bone Deposition, Bone Resorption, and Osteosarcoma

Bone deposition and bone resorption are ongoing dynamic processes, constituting bone remodeling. Some bone tumors, such as osteosarcoma (OS), stimulate focal bone deposition. OS is the most common primary bone tumor in children and young adults. A complex network of genes regulates bone remodeling and alterations in its expression levels can influence the genesis and progression of bone diseases, including OS. We hypothesized that the expression profiles of bone remodeling regulator genes would be correlated with OS biology and clinical features. We used real-time PCR to evaluate the mRNA levels of the tartrate-resistant acid phosphatase (ACP5), colony stimulating factor-1 (CSF1R), bone morphogenetic protein 7 (BMP7), collagen, type XI, alpha 2 (COL11A2), and protein tyrosine phosphatases zeta 1 (PTPRZ1) genes, in 30 OS tumor samples and correlated with clinical and histological data. All genes analyzed, except CSF1R, were differentially expressed when compared with normal bone expression profiles. In our results, OS patients with high levels of COL11A2 mRNA showed worse overall (p = 0.041) and event free survival (p = 0.037). Also, a trend for better overall survival was observed in patients with samples showing higher expression of BMP7 (p =0.067). COL11A2 overexpression and BMP7 underexpression could collaborate to OS tumor growth, through its central role in bone remodeling process. (C) 2010 Orthopaedic Research Society. Published by Wiley Periodicals, Inc. J Orthop Res 28:1142-1148, 2010

Novel Pathogenic Mutations and Copy Number Variations in the VPS13A Gene in Patients With Chorea-Acanthocytosis

Chorea-acanthocytosis (ChAc) is a rare autosomal recessive neurodegenerative disorder caused by loss of function mutations in the vacuolar protein sorting 13 homolog A (VPS13A) gene that encodes chorein. It is characterized by adult-onset chorea, peripheral acanthocytes, and neuropsychiatric symptoms. In the present study, we performed a comprehensive mutation screen, including sequencing and copy number variation (CNV) analysis, of the VPS13A gene in ChAc patients. All 73 exons and flanking regions of VPS13A were sequenced in 35 patients diagnosed with ChAc. To detect CNVs, we also performed real-time quantitative PCR and long-range PCR analyses for the VPS13A gene on patients in whom only a single heterozygous mutation was detected. We identified 36 pathogenic mutations, 20 of which were previously unreported, including two novel CNVs. In addition, we investigated the expression of chorein in 16 patients by Western blotting of erythrocyte ghosts. This demonstrated the complete absence of chorein in patients with pathogenic mutations. This comprehensive screen provides an accurate and useful method for the molecular diagnosis of ChAc. (C) 2011 Wiley-Liss, Inc.