Using palaeo-climate comparisons to constrain future projections in CMIP5

We present a selection of methodologies for using the palaeo-climate model component of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (Phase 5) (CMIP5) to attempt to constrain future climate projections using the same models. The constraints arise from measures of skill in hindcasting palaeo-climate changes from the present over three periods: the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM) (21 000 yr before present, ka), the mid-Holocene (MH) (6 ka) and the Last Millennium (LM) (850–1850 CE). The skill measures may be used to validate robust patterns of climate change across scenarios or to distinguish between models that have differing outcomes in future scenarios. We find that the multi-model ensemble of palaeo-simulations is adequate for addressing at least some of these issues. For example, selected benchmarks for the LGM and MH are correlated to the rank of future projections of precipitation/temperature or sea ice extent to indicate that models that produce the best agreement with palaeo-climate information give demonstrably different future results than the rest of the models. We also explore cases where comparisons are strongly dependent on uncertain forcing time series or show important non-stationarity, making direct inferences for the future problematic. Overall, we demonstrate that there is a strong potential for the palaeo-climate simulations to help inform the future projections and urge all the modelling groups to complete this subset of the CMIP5 runs.

Climate change projections using the IPSL-CM5 Earth System Model: from CMIP3 to CMIP5

We present the global general circulation model IPSL-CM5 developed to study the long-term response of the climate system to natural and anthropogenic forcings as part of the 5th Phase of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5). This model includes an interactive carbon cycle, a representation of tropospheric and stratospheric chemistry, and a comprehensive representation of aerosols. As it represents the principal dynamical, physical, and bio-geochemical processes relevant to the climate system, it may be referred to as an Earth System Model. However, the IPSL-CM5 model may be used in a multitude of configurations associated with different boundary conditions and with a range of complexities in terms of processes and interactions. This paper presents an overview of the different model components and explains how they were coupled and used to simulate historical climate changes over the past 150 years and different scenarios of future climate change. A single version of the IPSL-CM5 model (IPSL-CM5A-LR) was used to provide climate projections associated with different socio-economic scenarios, including the different Representative Concentration Pathways considered by CMIP5 and several scenarios from the Special Report on Emission Scenarios considered by CMIP3. Results suggest that the magnitude of global warming projections primarily depends on the socio-economic scenario considered, that there is potential for an aggressive mitigation policy to limit global warming to about two degrees, and that the behavior of some components of the climate system such as the Arctic sea ice and the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation may change drastically by the end of the twenty-first century in the case of a no climate policy scenario. Although the magnitude of regional temperature and precipitation changes depends fairly linearly on the magnitude of the projected global warming (and thus on the scenario considered), the geographical pattern of these changes is strikingly similar for the different scenarios. The representation of atmospheric physical processes in the model is shown to strongly influence the simulated climate variability and both the magnitude and pattern of the projected climate changes.

Understanding climate change projections for precipitation over western Europe with a weather typing approach

Precipitation over western Europe (WE) is projected to increase (decrease) roughly northward (equatorward) of 50°N during the 21st century. These changes are generally attributed to alterations in the regional large-scale circulation, e.g., jet stream, cyclone activity, and blocking frequencies. A novel weather typing within the sector (30°W–10°E, 25–70°N) is used for a more comprehensive dynamical interpretation of precipitation changes. A k-means clustering on daily mean sea level pressure was undertaken for ERA-Interim reanalysis (1979–2014). Eight weather types are identified: S1, S2, S3 (summertime types), W1, W2, W3 (wintertime types), B1, and B2 (blocking-like types). Their distinctive dynamical characteristics allow identifying the main large-scale precipitation-driving mechanisms. Simulations with 22 Coupled Model Intercomparison Project 5 models for recent climate conditions show biases in reproducing the observed seasonality of weather types. In particular, an overestimation of weather type frequencies associated with zonal airflow is identified. Considering projections following the (Representative Concentration Pathways) RCP8.5 scenario over 2071–2100, the frequencies of the three driest types (S1, B2, and W3) are projected to increase (mainly S1, +4%) in detriment of the rainiest types, particularly W1 (−3%). These changes explain most of the precipitation projections over WE. However, a weather type-independent background signal is identified (increase/decrease in precipitation over northern/southern WE), suggesting modifications in precipitation-generating processes and/or model inability to accurately simulate these processes. Despite these caveats in the precipitation scenarios for WE, which must be duly taken into account, our approach permits a better understanding of the projected trends for precipitation over WE.

Processing coordinate subject-verb agreement in L1 and L2 Greek

The present study examines the processing of subject-verb (SV) number agreement with coordinate subjects in pre-verbal and post-verbal positions in Greek. Greek is a language with morphological number marked on nominal and verbal elements. Coordinate SV agreement, however, is special in Greek as it is sensitive to the coordinate subject's position: when pre-verbal, the verb is marked for plural while when post-verbal the verb can be in the singular. We conducted two experiments, an acceptability judgment task with adult monolinguals as a pre-study (Experiment 1) and a self-paced reading task as the main study (Experiment 2) in order to obtain acceptance as well as processing data. Forty adult monolingual speakers of Greek participated in Experiment 1 and a hundred and forty one in Experiment 2. Seventy one children participated in Experiment 2: 30 Albanian-Greek sequential bilingual children and 41 Greek monolingual children aged 10–12 years. The adult data in Experiment 1 establish the difference in acceptability between singular VPs in SV and VS constructions reaffirming our hypothesis. Meanwhile, the adult data in Experiment 2 show that plural verbs accelerate processing regardless of subject position. The child online data show that sequential bilingual children have longer reading times (RTs) compared to the age-matched monolingual control group. However, both child groups follow a similar processing pattern in both pre-verbal and post-verbal constructions showing longer RTs immediately after a singular verb when the subject was pre-verbal indicating a grammaticality effect. In the post-verbal coordinate subject sentences, both child groups showed longer RTs on the first subject following the plural verb due to the temporary number mismatch between the verb and the first subject. This effect was resolved in monolingual children but was still present at the end of the sentence for bilingual children indicating difficulties to reanalyze and integrate information. Taken together, these findings demonstrate that (a) 10–12 year-old sequential bilingual children are sensitive to number agreement in SV coordinate constructions parsing sentences in the same way as monolingual children even though their vocabulary abilities are lower than that of age-matched monolingual peers and (b) bilinguals are slower in processing overall.

Forebrain projections to brainstem nuclei involved in the control of mandibular movements in rats

Mandibular movements occur through the triggering of trigeminal motoneurons. Aberrant movements by orofacial muscles are characteristic of orofacial motor disorders, such as nocturnal bruxism (clenching or grinding of the dentition during sleep). Previous studies have suggested that autonomic changes occur during bruxism episodes. Although it is known that emotional responses increase jaw movement, the brain pathways linking forebrain limbic nuclei and the trigeminal motor nucleus remain unclear. Here we show that neurons in the lateral hypothalamic area, in the central nucleus of the amygdala, and in the parasubthalamic nucleus, project to the trigeminal motor nucleus or to reticular regions around the motor nucleus (Regio h) and in the mesencephalic trigeminal nucleus. We observed orexin co-expression in neurons projecting from the lateral hypothalamic area to the trigeminal motor nucleus. In the central nucleus of the amygdala, neurons projecting to the trigeminal motor nucleus are innervated by corticotrophin-releasing factor immunoreactive fibers. We also observed that the mesencephalic trigeminal nucleus receives dense innervation from orexin and corticotrophin-releasing factor immunoreactive fibers. Therefore, forebrain nuclei related to autonomic control and stress responses might influence the activity of trigeminal motor neurons and consequently play a role in the physiopathology of nocturnal bruxism.

Melanin-concentrating hormone projections to areas involved in somatomotor responses

The lateral hypothalamic area (LHA) participates in the integration of sensory information and somatomotor responses associated with hunger and thirst. Although the LHA is neurochemically heterogeneous, a particularly high number of cells express melanin-concentrating hormone (MCH), which has been reported to play a role in energy homeostasis. Treatment with MCH increases food intake, and MCH mRNA is overexpressed in leptin-deficient (ob/ob) mice. Mice lacking both MCH and leptin present reduced body fat, mainly due to increased resting energy expenditure and locomotor activity. Dense MCH innervation of the cerebral motor cortex (MCx) and the pedunculopontine tegmental nucleus (PPT), both related to motor function, has been reported. Therefore, we postulated that a specific group of MCH neurons project to these areas. To investigate our hypothesis, we injected retrograde tracers into the MCx and the PPT of rats, combined with immunohistochemistry. We found that 25% of the LHA neurons projecting to the PPT were immunoreactive for MCH, and that 75% of the LHA neurons projecting to the MCx also contained MCH. Few MCH neurons were found to send collaterals to both areas. We also found that 15% of the incerto-hypothalamic neurons projecting to the PPT expressed MCH immunoreactivity. Those neurons preferentially innervated the rostral PPT. In addition, we observed that the MCH neurons express glutamic acid decarboxylase mRNA, a gamma-aminobutyric acid (GABA) synthesizing enzyme. We postulate that MCH/GABA neurons are involved in the inhibitory modulation of the innervated areas, decreasing motor activity in states of negative energy balance. (C) 2007 Published by Elsevier B.V.

Retinoic Acid and VEGF Delay Smooth Muscle Relative to Endothelial Differentiation to Coordinate Inner and Outer Coronary Vessel Wall Morphogenesis

Rationale: Major coronary vessels derive from the proepicardium, the cellular progenitor of the epicardium, coronary endothelium, and coronary smooth muscle cells (CoSMCs). CoSMCs are delayed in their differentiation relative to coronary endothelial cells (CoEs), such that CoSMCs mature only after CoEs have assembled into tubes. The mechanisms underlying this sequential CoE/CoSMC differentiation are unknown. Retinoic acid (RA) is crucial for vascular development and the main RA-synthesizing enzyme is progressively lost from epicardially derived cells as they differentiate into blood vessel types. In parallel, myocardial vascular endothelial growth factor (VEGF) expression also decreases along coronary vessel muscularization. Objective: We hypothesized that RA and VEGF act coordinately as physiological brakes to CoSMC differentiation. Methods and Results: In vitro assays (proepicardial cultures, cocultures, and RALDH2 [retinaldehyde dehydrogenase-2]/VEGF adenoviral overexpression) and in vivo inhibition of RA synthesis show that RA and VEGF act as repressors of CoSMC differentiation, whereas VEGF biases epicardially derived cell differentiation toward the endothelial phenotype. Conclusion: Experiments support a model in which early high levels of RA and VEGF prevent CoSMC differentiation from epicardially derived cells before RA and VEGF levels decline as an extensive endothelial network is established. We suggest this physiological delay guarantees the formation of a complex, hierarchical, tree of coronary vessels. (Circ Res. 2010;107:204-216.)

Organization of ventral tegmental area projections to the ventral tegmental area-nigral complex in the rat

The ventral tegmental area (VTA) is a nodal link in reward circuitry. Based on its striatal output, it has been subdivided in a caudomedial part which targets the ventromedial striatum, and a lateral part which targets the ventrolateral striatum [Ikemoto S (2007) Dopamine reward circuitry: two projection systems from the ventral midbrain to the nucleus accumbens-olfactory tubercle complex. Brain Res Rev 56:27-78]. Whether these two VTA parts are interconnected and to what extent the VTA innervates the substantia nigra compacta (SNc) and retrorubral nucleus (RR) are critical issues for understanding information processing in the basal ganglia. Here, VTA projections to the VTA-nigral complex were examined in rats, using Phaseolus vulgaris leucoagglutinin (PHA-L) as anterograde tracer. The results show that the dorsolateral VTA projects to itself, as well as to the dorsal tier of the SNc and RR, largely avoiding the caudomedial VTA. The ventrolateral VTA innervates mainly the interfascicular nucleus. The components of the caudomedial VTA (the interfascicular, paranigral and caudal linear nuclei) are connected with each other. In addition, the caudomedial VTA (especially the paranigral and caudal linear nuclei) innervates the lateral VTA, and, to a lesser degree, the SNc and RR. The caudal pole of the VTA sends robust, bilateral projections to virtually all the VTA-nigral complex, which terminate in the dorsal and ventral tiers. Modest inputs from the medial supramammillary nucleus to ventromedial parts of the VTA-nigral complex were also identified. In double-immunostained sections, PHA-L-labeled varicosities were sometimes found apposed to tyrosine hydroxylase-positive neurons in the ventral mesencephalon. Overall, the results underscore that VTA projections to the VTA-nigral complex are substantial and topically organized. In general, these projections, like the spiralated striato-nigro-striatal loops, display a medial-to-lateral organization. This anatomical arrangement conceivably permits the ventromedial striatum to influence the activity of the lateral striatum. The caudal pole of the VTA appears to be a critical site for a global recruitment of the mesotelencephalic system. (C) 2008 IBRO. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

A Framework for Exploring Multidimensional Data with 3D Projections

Visualization of high-dimensional data requires a mapping to a visual space. Whenever the goal is to preserve similarity relations a frequent strategy is to use 2D projections, which afford intuitive interactive exploration, e. g., by users locating and selecting groups and gradually drilling down to individual objects. In this paper, we propose a framework for projecting high-dimensional data to 3D visual spaces, based on a generalization of the Least-Square Projection (LSP). We compare projections to 2D and 3D visual spaces both quantitatively and through a user study considering certain exploration tasks. The quantitative analysis confirms that 3D projections outperform 2D projections in terms of precision. The user study indicates that certain tasks can be more reliably and confidently answered with 3D projections. Nonetheless, as 3D projections are displayed on 2D screens, interaction is more difficult. Therefore, we incorporate suitable interaction functionalities into a framework that supports 3D transformations, predefined optimal 2D views, coordinated 2D and 3D views, and hierarchical 3D cluster definition and exploration. For visually encoding data clusters in a 3D setup, we employ color coding of projected data points as well as four types of surface renderings. A second user study evaluates the suitability of these visual encodings. Several examples illustrate the framework`s applicability for both visual exploration of multidimensional abstract (non-spatial) data as well as the feature space of multi-variate spatial data.

Synthesis, spectroscopic characterization and X-ray structures of five-coordinate diorganotin(IV) complexes containing 5-hydroxypyrazoline derivatives as ligands

Four new diorganotin(IV) complexes have been prepared from R(2)SnCl(2) (R = Me, Ph) with the ligands 5-hydroxy-3-metyl-5-phenyl-1-(S-benzildithiocarbazate)-pyrazoline (H(2)L(1)) and 5-hydroxy-3-methyl-5-phenyl-1-(2-thiophenecarboxylic)-pyrazoline (H(2)L(2)). The complexes were characterized by elemental analysis, IR. (1)H (13)C, (119)Sn NMR and Mossbauer spectroscopes The complexes [Me(2)SnL(1)], [Ph(2)SnL(1)] and [Me(2)SnL(2)] were also studied by single crystal X-ray diffraction and the results showed that the Sn(IV) central atom of the complexes adopts a distorted trigonal bipyramidal (TBP) geometry with the N atom of the ONX-tridentate (X = O and S) ligand and two organic groups occupying equatorial sites. The C-Sn-C angles for [Me(2)Sn(L(1))] and [Ph(2)Sn(L(1))] were calculated using a correlation between (119)Sn Mossbauer and X-ray crystallographic data based on the point-charge model Theoretical calculations were performed with the B3LYP density functional employing 3-21G(*) and DZVP all electron basis sets showing good agreement with experimental findings General and Sn(IV) specific IR harmonic frequency scale factors for both basis sets were obtained from comparison with selected experimental frequencies (C) 2010 Elsevier B V All rights reserved

Projections of the future path of the gender wage gap in Great Britain

Purpose – The paper attempts to project the future trend of the gender wage gap in Great Britain up to 2031.
Design/methodology/approach – The empirical analysis utilises the British Household Panel Study Wave F together with Office for National Statistics (ONS) demographic projections. The methodology combines the ONS projections with assumptions relating to the evolution of educational attainment in order to project the future distribution of human capital skills and consequently the future size of the gender wage gap.
Findings – The analysis suggests that gender wage convergence will be slow, with little female progress by 2031 unless there is a large rise in returns to female experience.
Originality/value – The paper has projected the pattern of male and female skill acquisition together with the associated trend in wages up to 2031.

Nursing education and graduates : profiles for 1999 and 2000, with projections for 2001

An analysis of DEST statistical data on nursing education had suggested that there were issues with the classification of undergraduate data and new initiatives, such as combined degrees, which were poorly captured. This project had two distinct aims. First, to explore and map exhaustively the range of undergraduate programs offered by tertiary education providers across Australia leading to an initial qualification and entry into nursing practice. Second, to explore and map in detail specialist nursing education courses offered by tertiary and other education providers across Australia. This research was funded under the Evaluations and Investigations Programme (EIP).

Nursing educations and graduates : profiles for 2001 and projections for 2002

The present study was commissioned for the National Review of Nursing Education. This is the second of two national studies commissioned to map in detail nursing education programs and to profile and make future projections regarding graduates from undergraduate and postgraduate nursing education courses in Australia.

The first study was undertaken in 2001 by Deakin University School of Nursing under the auspices of the 2001 Evaluation Investigations Project titled "Nursing Education and Graduates: Profiles for 1999, and 2000 with projections for 2001". This project sought data on nursing education within Australia in order to improve the accuracy of nursing education databases and to strengthen the ability of DETYA to provide advice on workforce planning. Issues that arose from that project included differences in data sets for undergraduate nursing courses in Australia and the complex process of attempting to tease out and accurately quantify postgraduate specialty courses when a trend towards postgraduate generic courses was evident. Approximately 26% of postgraduate domestic student enrolment data were reported utilising a generic nursing course category.

The purpose of this study was, therefore, twofold. Firstly, this study validated and extended the existing database developed in the previous study mapping in detail the full range of undergraduate programs offered by tertiary education providers across Australia that lead to an initial qualification and entry into nursing practice.

New data about the following was sought:

* Undergraduate nursing degrees (both three-year and four-year courses);
* Double/combined nursing degrees;
* Courses offered by private universities;
* Four-year bachelor degrees that concurrently provide both initial nurse registration and preparation for specialty nursing practice;
* Courses that facilitate ‘fast-tracking’ of students for initial nurse registration with previous tertiary or nursing studies,
* Hours and configuration of clinical experience in undergraduate nursing courses.

Nursing education and graduates in Victoria : profiles for 2000, 2001, and 2002 with projections for 2003

This project is the second of two projects commissioned by the Nurse Policy Branch, Victorian Department of Human Services (VDHS). The project investigated nursing education at the undergraduate and postgraduate levels in the university sector and in the VET sector. The data gathered from the project provided VDHS with a better understanding of nurse labour force issues.