Words, Images, Enemies : Securitization and International Politics

Williams, Mike, 'Words, Images, Enemies: Securitization and International Politics', International Studies Quarterly (2003) 47(4) pp.511-531 RAE2008

Proper-motion binaries in the Hipparcos catalogue: comparison with radial velocity data

Context. This paper is the last in a series devoted to the analysis of the binary content of the Hipparcos Catalogue. Aims. The comparison of the proper motions constructed from positions spanning a short (Hipparcos) or long time (Tycho-2) makes it possible to uncover binaries with periods of the order of or somewhat larger than the short time span (in this case, the 3 yr duration of the Hipparcos mission), since the unrecognised orbital motion will then add to the proper motion. Methods. A list of candidate proper motion binaries is constructed from a carefully designed χ2 test evaluating the statistical significance of the difference between the Tycho-2 and Hipparcos proper motions for 103 134 stars in common between the two catalogues (excluding components of visual systems). Since similar lists of proper-motion binaries have already been constructed, the present paper focuses on the evaluation of the detection efficiency of proper-motion binaries, using different kinds of control data (mostly radial velocities). The detection rate for entries from the Ninth Catalogue of Spectroscopic Binary Orbits (SB9) is evaluated, as well as for stars like barium stars, which are known to be all binaries, and finally for spectroscopic binaries identified from radial velocity data in the Geneva-Copenhagen survey of F and G dwarfs in the solar neighbourhood. Results. Proper motion binaries are efficiently detected for systems with parallaxes in excess of ∼20 mas, and periods in the range 1000-30 000 d. The shortest periods in this range (1000-2000 d, i.e. once to twice the duration of the Hipparcos mission) may appear only as DMSA/G binaries (accelerated proper motion in the Hipparcos Double and Multiple System Annex). Proper motion binaries detected among SB9 systems having periods shorter than about 400 d hint at triple systems, the proper-motion binary involving a component with a longer orbital period. A list of 19 candidate triple systems is provided. Binaries suspected of having low-mass (brown-dwarf-like) companions are listed as well. Among the 37 barium stars with parallaxes larger than 5 mas, only 7 exhibit no evidence for duplicity whatsoever (be it spectroscopic or astrometric). Finally, the fraction of proper-motion binaries shows no significant variation among the various (regular) spectral classes, when due account is taken for the detection biases. © ESO 2007.

Contrasting futures for ocean and society from different anthropogenic CO2 emissions scenarios

The ocean moderates anthropogenic climate change at the cost of profound alterations of its physics, chemistry, ecology, and services. Here, we evaluate and compare the risks of impacts on marine and coastal ecosystems and the goods and services they provide for growing cumulative carbon emissions under two contrasting emissions scenarios. The current emissions trajectory would rapidly and significantly alter many ecosystems and the associated services on which humans heavily depend. A reduced emissions scenario consistent with the Copenhagen Accord’s goal of a global temperature increase of less than 2°C—is much more favorable to the ocean but still substantially alters important marine ecosystems and associated goods and services. The management options to address ocean impacts narrow as the ocean warms and acidifies. Consequently, any new climate regime that fails to minimize ocean impacts would be incomplete and inadequate.

Intertwined ocean and climate: implications for international climate negotiations

The atmosphere and ocean are two components of the Earth system that are essential for life, yet humankind is altering both. Contemporary climate change is now a well-identified problem: anthropogenic causes, disturbance in extreme events patterns, gradual environmental changes, widespread impacts on life and natural resources, and multiple threats to human societies all around the world. But part of the problem remains largely unknown outside the scientific community: significant changes are also occurring in the ocean, threatening life and its sustainability on Earth. This Policy Brief explains the significance of these changes in the ocean. It is based on a scientific paper recently published in Science (Gattuso et al., 2015), which synthesizes recent and future changes to the ocean and its ecosystems, as well as to the goods and services they provide to humans. Two contrasting CO2 emission scenarios are considered: the high emissions scenario (also known as “business-as-usual” and as the Representative Concentration Pathway 8.5, RCP8.5) and a stringent emissions scenario (RCP2.6) consistent with the Copenhagen Accord1 of keeping mean global temperature increase below 2°C in 2100.

La aplicación estratégica por escenarios en el medio natural. El caso del Nature Outlook 2050 del PBL.

La prospectiva es parte de la planificación estratégica. Es una herramienta habitual en la gestión y dirección de empresas. Algunos países europeos la incluyen dentro de sus trabajos de diseño de las políticas ambientales. La generación de escenarios es una técnica cualitativa de prospectiva apta para los entornos con alta variabilidad y complejidad. El artículo explica el modo de aplicar esta técnica poniendo en paralelo los pasos dados en el proyecto Nature Outlook 2050 que ha desarrollado la agencia de evaluación y prospectiva ambiental de los Países Bajos (PBL).