Periodic time series modeling of environmental proxy records with guaranteed positive growth rate estimation

Identifying a periodic time-series model from environmental records, without imposing the positivity of the growth rate, does not necessarily respect the time order of the data observations. Consequently, subsequent observations, sampled in the environmental archive, can be inversed on the time axis, resulting in a non-physical signal model. In this paper an optimization technique with linear constraints on the signal model parameters is proposed that prevents time inversions. The activation conditions for this constrained optimization are based upon the physical constraint of the growth rate, namely, that it cannot take values smaller than zero. The actual constraints are defined for polynomials and first-order splines as basis functions for the nonlinear contribution in the distance-time relationship. The method is compared with an existing method that eliminates the time inversions, and its noise sensitivity is tested by means of Monte Carlo simulations. Finally, the usefulness of the method is demonstrated on the measurements of the vessel density, in a mangrove tree, Rhizophora mucronata, and the measurement of Mg/Ca ratios, in a bivalve, Mytilus trossulus.

Advances in continuously profiling the thermodynamic state of the boundary layer: integration of measurements and methods

This paper describes advances in ground-based thermodynamic profiling of the lower troposphere through sensor synergy. The well-documented integrated profiling technique (IPT), which uses a microwave profiler, a cloud radar, and a ceilometer to simultaneously retrieve vertical profiles of temperature, humidity, and liquid water content (LWC) of nonprecipitating clouds, is further developed toward an enhanced performance in the boundary layer and lower troposphere. For a more accurate temperature profile, this is accomplished by including an elevation scanning measurement modus of the microwave profiler. Height-dependent RMS accuracies of temperature (humidity) ranging from 0.3 to 0.9 K (0.5–0.8 g m−3) in the boundary layer are derived from retrieval simulations and confirmed experimentally with measurements at distinct heights taken during the 2005 International Lindenberg Campaign for Assessment of Humidity and Cloud Profiling Systems and its Impact on High-Resolution Modeling (LAUNCH) of the German Weather Service. Temperature inversions, especially of the lower boundary layer, are captured in a very satisfactory way by using the elevation scanning mode. To improve the quality of liquid water content measurements in clouds the authors incorporate a sophisticated target classification scheme developed within the European cloud observing network CloudNet. It allows the detailed discrimination between different types of backscatterers detected by cloud radar and ceilometer. Finally, to allow IPT application also to drizzling cases, an LWC profiling method is integrated. This technique classifies the detected hydrometeors into three different size classes using certain thresholds determined by radar reflectivity and/or ceilometer extinction profiles. By inclusion into IPT, the retrieved profiles are made consistent with the measurements of the microwave profiler and an LWC a priori profile. Results of IPT application to 13 days of the LAUNCH campaign are analyzed, and the importance of integrated profiling for model evaluation is underlined.

Global retrieval of ATSR cloud parameters and evaluation (GRAPE): dataset assessment

The Along-Track Scanning Radiometers (ATSRs) provide a long time-series of measurements suitable for the retrieval of cloud properties. This work evaluates the freely-available Global Retrieval of ATSR Cloud Parameters and Evaluation (GRAPE) dataset (version 3) created from the ATSR-2 (1995�2003) and Advanced ATSR (AATSR; 2002 onwards) records. Users are recommended to consider only retrievals flagged as high-quality, where there is a good consistency between the measurements and the retrieved state (corresponding to about 60% of converged retrievals over sea, and more than 80% over land). Cloud properties are found to be generally free of any significant spurious trends relating to satellite zenith angle. Estimates of the random error on retrieved cloud properties are suggested to be generally appropriate for optically-thick clouds, and up to a factor of two too small for optically-thin cases. The correspondence between ATSR-2 and AATSR cloud properties is high, but a relative calibration difference between the sensors of order 5�10% at 660 nm and 870 nm limits the potential of the current version of the dataset for trend analysis. As ATSR-2 is thought to have the better absolute calibration, the discussion focusses on this portion of the record. Cloud-top heights from GRAPE compare well to ground-based data at four sites, particularly for shallow clouds. Clouds forming in boundary-layer inversions are typically around 1 km too high in GRAPE due to poorly-resolved inversions in the modelled temperature profiles used. Global cloud fields are compared to satellite products derived from the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS), Cloud-Aerosol Lidar with Orthogonal Polarization (CALIOP) measurements, and a climatology of liquid water content derived from satellite microwave radiometers. In all cases the main reasons for differences are linked to differing sensitivity to, and treatment of, multi-layer cloud systems. The correlation coefficient between GRAPE and the two MODIS products considered is generally high (greater than 0.7 for most cloud properties), except for liquid and ice cloud effective radius, which also show biases between the datasets. For liquid clouds, part of the difference is linked to choice of wavelengths used in the retrieval. Total cloud cover is slightly lower in GRAPE (0.64) than the CALIOP dataset (0.66). GRAPE underestimates liquid cloud water path relative to microwave radiometers by up to 100 g m�2 near the Equator and overestimates by around 50 g m�2 in the storm tracks. Finally, potential future improvements to the algorithm are outlined.

Rossby number expansions, slaving principles, and balance dynamics

We consider the problem of constructing balance dynamics for rapidly rotating fluid systems. It is argued that the conventional Rossby number expansion—namely expanding all variables in a series in Rossby number—is secular for all but the simplest flows. In particular, the higher-order terms in the expansion grow exponentially on average, and for moderate values of the Rossby number the expansion is, at best, useful only for times of the order of the doubling times of the instabilities of the underlying quasi-geostrophic dynamics. Similar arguments apply in a wide class of problems involving a small parameter and sufficiently complex zeroth-order dynamics. A modified procedure is proposed which involves expanding only the fast modes of the system; this is equivalent to an asymptotic approximation of the slaving relation that relates the fast modes to the slow modes. The procedure is systematic and thus capable, at least in principle, of being carried to any order—unlike procedures based on truncations. We apply the procedure to construct higher-order balance approximations of the shallow-water equations. At the lowest order quasi-geostrophy emerges. At the next order the system incorporates gradient-wind balance, although the balance relations themselves involve only linear inversions and hence are easily applied. There is a large class of reduced systems associated with various choices for the slow variables, but the simplest ones appear to be those based on potential vorticity.

Modelling fire and the terrestrial carbon balance

Four CO2 concentration inversions and the Global Fire Emissions Database (GFED) versions 2.1 and 3 are used to provide benchmarks for climate-driven modeling of the global land-atmosphere CO2 flux and the contribution of wildfire to this flux. The Land surface Processes and exchanges (LPX) model is introduced. LPX is based on the Lund-Potsdam-Jena Spread and Intensity of FIRE (LPJ-SPITFIRE) model with amended fire probability calculations. LPX omits human ignition sources yet simulates many aspects of global fire adequately. It captures the major features of observed geographic pattern in burnt area and its seasonal timing and the unimodal relationship of burnt area to precipitation. It simulates features of geographic variation in the sign of the interannual correlations of burnt area with antecedent dryness and precipitation. It simulates well the interannual variability of the global total land-atmosphere CO2 flux. There are differences among the global burnt area time series from GFED2.1, GFED3 and LPX, but some features are common to all. GFED3 fire CO2 fluxes account for only about 1/3 of the variation in total CO2 flux during 1997–2005. This relationship appears to be dominated by the strong climatic dependence of deforestation fires. The relationship of LPX-modeled fire CO2 fluxes to total CO2 fluxes is weak. Observed and modeled total CO2 fluxes track the El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) closely; GFED3 burnt area and global fire CO2 flux track the ENSO much less so. The GFED3 fire CO2 flux-ENSO connection is most prominent for the El Niño of 1997–1998, which produced exceptional burning conditions in several regions, especially equatorial Asia. The sign of the observed relationship between ENSO and fire varies regionally, and LPX captures the broad features of this variation. These complexities underscore the need for process-based modeling to assess the consequences of global change for fire and its implications for the carbon cycle.

Ensemble transform Kalman-Bucy filters

Two recent works have adapted the Kalman–Bucy filter into an ensemble setting. In the first formulation, the ensemble of perturbations is updated by the solution of an ordinary differential equation (ODE) in pseudo-time, while the mean is updated as in the standard Kalman filter. In the second formulation, the full ensemble is updated in the analysis step as the solution of single set of ODEs in pseudo-time. Neither requires matrix inversions except for the frequently diagonal observation error covariance. We analyse the behaviour of the ODEs involved in these formulations. We demonstrate that they stiffen for large magnitudes of the ratio of background error to observational error variance, and that using the integration scheme proposed in both formulations can lead to failure. A numerical integration scheme that is both stable and is not computationally expensive is proposed. We develop transform-based alternatives for these Bucy-type approaches so that the integrations are computed in ensemble space where the variables are weights (of dimension equal to the ensemble size) rather than model variables. Finally, the performance of our ensemble transform Kalman–Bucy implementations is evaluated using three models: the 3-variable Lorenz 1963 model, the 40-variable Lorenz 1996 model, and a medium complexity atmospheric general circulation model known as SPEEDY. The results from all three models are encouraging and warrant further exploration of these assimilation techniques.

Terrorist transgressions: gendered representations of the terrorist in visual culture

The aim of Terrorist Transgressions is to analyse the myths inscribed in images of the terrorist and identify how agency is attributed to representation through invocations and inversions of gender stereotypes. In modern discourses on the terrorist the horror experienced in Western societies was the appearance of a new sense of the vulnerability of the body politic, and therefore of the modern self with its direct dependency on security and property. The terrorist has been constructed as the epitome of transgression against economic resources and moral, physical and political boundaries. Although terrorism has been the focus of intense academic activity, cultural representations of the terrorist have received less attention. Yet terrorism is dependent on spectacle and the topic is subject to forceful exposure in popular media. While the terrorist is predominantly aligned with masculinity, women have been active in terrorist organisations since the late 19th century and in suicidal terrorist attacks since the 1980s. Such attacks have confounded constructions of femininity and masculinity, with profound implications for the gendering of violence and horror. The publication arises from an AHRC networking grant, 2011-12, with Birkbeck, and includes collaboration with the army at Sandhurst RMA. The project relates to a wider investigation into feminism, violence and contemporary art.

Observations of urban boundary layer structure during a strong urban heat island event

It has long been known that the urban surface energy balance is different to that of a rural surface, and that heating of the urban surface after sunset gives rise to the Urban Heat Island (UHI). Less well known is how flow and turbulence structure above the urban surface are changed during different phases of the urban boundary layer (UBL). This paper presents new observations above both an urban and rural surface and investigates how much UBL structure deviates from classical behaviour. A 5-day, low wind, cloudless, high pressure period over London, UK, was chosen for analysis, during which there was a strong UHI. Boundary layer evolution for both sites was determined by the diurnal cycle in sensible heat flux, with an extended decay period of approximately 4 h for the convective UBL. This is referred to as the “Urban Convective Island” as the surrounding rural area was already stable at this time. Mixing height magnitude depended on the combination of regional temperature profiles and surface temperature. Given the daytime UHI intensity of 1.5∘C, combined with multiple inversions in the temperature profile, urban and rural mixing heights underwent opposite trends over the period, resulting in a factor of three height difference by the fifth day. Nocturnal jets undergoing inertial oscillations were observed aloft in the urban wind profile as soon as the rural boundary layer became stable: clear jet maxima over the urban surface only emerged once the UBL had become stable. This was due to mixing during the Urban Convective Island reducing shear. Analysis of turbulent moments (variance, skewness and kurtosis) showed “upside-down” boundary layer characteristics on some mornings during initial rapid growth of the convective UBL. During the “Urban Convective Island” phase, turbulence structure still resembled a classical convective boundary layer but with some influence from shear aloft, depending on jet strength. These results demonstrate that appropriate choice of Doppler lidar scan patterns can give detailed profiles of UBL flow. Insights drawn from the observations have implications for accuracy of boundary conditions when simulating urban flow and dispersion, as the UBL is clearly the result of processes driven not only by local surface conditions but also regional atmospheric structure.

Comments on 'Current GCMs' Unrealistic Negative Feedback in the Arctic'

In contrast to prior studies showing a positive lapse-rate feedback associated with the Arctic inversion, Boé et al. reported that strong present-day Arctic temperature inversions are associated with stronger negative longwave feedbacks and thus reduced Arctic amplification in the model ensemble from phase 3 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP3). A permutation test reveals that the relation between longwave feedbacks and inversion strength is an artifact of statistical self-correlation and that shortwave feedbacks have a stronger correlation with intermodel spread. The present comment concludes that the conventional understanding of a positive lapse-rate feedback associated with the Arctic inversion is consistent with the CMIP3 model ensemble.

Upper-mantle seismic structure beneath SE and Central Brazil from P- and S-wave regional traveltime tomography

We present models for the upper-mantle velocity structure beneath SE and Central Brazil using independent tomographic inversions of P- and S-wave relative arrival-time residuals (including core phases) from teleseismic earthquakes. The events were recorded by a total of 92 stations deployed through different projects, institutions and time periods during the years 1992-2004. Our results show correlations with the main tectonic structures and reveal new anomalies not yet observed in previous works. All interpretations are based on robust anomalies, which appear in the different inversions for P-and S-waves. The resolution is variable through our study volume and has been analyzed through different theoretical test inversions. High-velocity anomalies are observed in the western portion of the Sao Francisco Craton, supporting the hypothesis that this Craton was part of a major Neoproterozoic plate (San Franciscan Plate). Low-velocity anomalies beneath the Tocantins Province (mainly fold belts between the Amazon and Sao Francisco Cratons) are interpreted as due to lithospheric thinning, which is consistent with the good correlation between intraplate seismicity and low-velocity anomalies in this region. Our results show that the basement of the Parana Basin is formed by several blocks, separated by suture zones, according to model of Milani & Ramos. The slab of the Nazca Plate can be observed as a high-velocity anomaly beneath the Parana Basin, between the depths of 700 and 1200 km. Further, we confirm the low-velocity anomaly in the NE area of the Parana Basin which has been interpreted by VanDecar et al. as a fossil conduct of the Tristan da Cunha Plume related to the Parana flood basalt eruptions during the opening of the South Atlantic.

Magnetotelluric deep soundings, gravity and geoid in the south Sao Francisco craton: Geophysical indicators of cratonic lithosphere rejuvenation and crustal underplating

In the south Sao Francisco craton a circular and 8-m amplitude geoid anomaly coincides with the outcropping terrain of an Archean-Paleoproterozoic basement. Broadband magnetotelluric (MT) data inversions of two radial profiles within the positive geoid and Bouguer gravity anomaly yield geo-electrical crustal sections, whereby the lower crust is locally more conductive (10 to 100 Omega m) in spatial coincidence with a denser lower crust modeled by the gravity data. This anomalous lower crust may have resulted from magmatic underplating, associated with Mesoarchean and Proterozoic episodes of tholeiitic dike intrusion. Long-period MT soundings reveal a low electrical resistivity mantle (20 to 200 Omega m) from depths beyond 120 km. Forward geoid modeling, using the scope of the low electrical resistivity region within the mantle as a constraint, entails a density increase (40 to 50 kg/m(3)) possibly due to Fe enrichment of mantle minerals. However, this factor alone does not explain the observed resistivity. A supplemented presence of small amounts of percolated carbonatite melting (similar to 0.005 vol.%), dissolved water and enhanced oxygen fugacity within the peridotitic mantle are viable agents that could explain the less resistive upper mantle. We propose that metasomatic processes confined in the sub-continental lithospheric mantle foster the conditions for a low degree melting with variable CO(2), H(2)O and Fe content. Even though the precise age of this metasomatism is unknown it might be older than the Early Cretaceous based on the evidence that a high-degree of melting in a lithospheric mantle impregnated with carbonatites originated the tholeiitic dike intrusions dispersed from the southeastern border of the Sao Francisco craton, during the onset of the lithosphere extension and break-up of the western Gondwana. The proxies are the NE Parana and Espinhaco (130 Ma, Ar/Ar ages) tholeiitic dikes, which contain (similar to 3%) carbonatites in their composition. The occurrence of a positive geoid anomaly (+ 10 m) and pre-tholeiites (age > 138 Ma), carbonatites and kimberlites along the west African continental margin (Angola and Namibia) reinforces the presumed age of the Sao Francisco-Congo craton rejuvenation to be prior to its fragmentation in the Lower Cretaceous. (C) 2010 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Genetic algorithm inversion of the average 1D crustal structure using local and regional earthquakes

Knowing the best 1D model of the crustal and upper mantle structure is useful not only for routine hypocenter determination, but also for linearized joint inversions of hypocenters and 3D crustal structure, where a good choice of the initial model can be very important. Here, we tested the combination of a simple GA inversion with the widely used HYPO71 program to find the best three-layer model (upper crust, lower crust, and upper mantle) by minimizing the overall P- and S-arrival residuals, using local and regional earthquakes in two areas of the Brazilian shield. Results from the Tocantins Province (Central Brazil) and the southern border of the Sao Francisco craton (SE Brazil) indicated an average crustal thickness of 38 and 43 km, respectively, consistent with previous estimates from receiver functions and seismic refraction lines. The GA + HYPO71 inversion produced correct Vp/Vs ratios (1.73 and 1.71, respectively), as expected from Wadati diagrams. Tests with synthetic data showed that the method is robust for the crustal thickness, Pn velocity, and Vp/Vs ratio when using events with distance up to about 400 km, despite the small number of events available (7 and 22, respectively). The velocities of the upper and lower crusts, however, are less well constrained. Interestingly, in the Tocantins Province, the GA + HYPO71 inversion showed a secondary solution (local minimum) for the average crustal thickness, besides the global minimum solution, which was caused by the existence of two distinct domains in the Central Brazil with very different crustal thicknesses. (C) 2010 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Chromosome homologies of the highly rearranged karyotypes of four Akodon species (Rodentia, Cricetidae) resolved by reciprocal chromosome painting: the evolution of the lowest diploid number in rodents

Traditionally comparative cytogenetic studies are based mainly on banding patterns. Nevertheless, when dealing with species with highly rearranged genomes, as in Akodon species, or with other highly divergent species, cytogenetic comparisons of banding patterns prove inadequate. Hence, comparative chromosome painting has become the method of choice for genome comparisons at the cytogenetic level since it allows complete chromosome probes of a species to be hybridized in situ onto chromosomes of other species, detecting homologous genomic regions between them. In the present study, we have explored the highly rearranged complements of the Akodon species using reciprocal chromosome painting through species-specific chromosome probes obtained by chromosome sorting. The results revealed complete homology among the complements of Akodon sp. n. (ASP), 2n = 10; Akodon cursor (ACU), 2n = 15; Akodon montensis (AMO), 2n = 24; and Akodon paranaensis (APA), 2n = 44, and extensive chromosome rearrangements have been detected within the species with high precision. Robertsonian and tandem rearrangements, pericentric inversions and/or centromere repositioning, paracentric inversion, translocations, insertions, and breakpoints, where chromosomal rearrangements, seen to be favorable, were observed. Chromosome painting using the APA set of 21 autosomes plus X and Y revealed eight syntenic segments that are shared with A. montensis, A. cursor, and ASP, and one syntenic segment shared by A. montensis and A. cursor plus five exclusive chromosome associations for A. cursor and six for ASP chromosome X, except for the heterochromatin region of ASP X, and even chromosome Y shared complete homology among the species. These data indicate that all those closely related species have experienced a recent extensive process of autosomal rearrangement in which, except for ASP, there is still complete conservation of sex chromosomes homologies.

Chromosomal Evolution in the Brazilian Geckos of the Genus Gymnodactylus (Squamata, Phyllodactylidae) from the Biomes of Cerrado, Caatinga and Atlantic Rain Forest: Evidence of Robertsonian Fusion Events and Supernumerary Chromosomes

Chromosomes of the South American geckos Gymnodactylus amarali and G. geckoides from open and dry areas of the Cerrado and Caatinga biomes in Brazil, respectively, were studied for the first time, after conventional and AgNOR staining, CBG- and RBG-banding, and FISH with telomeric sequences. Comparative analyses between the karyotypes of open areas and the previously studied Atlantic forest species G. darwinii were also performed. The chromosomal polymorphisms detected in populations of G. amarali from the states of Goias and Tocantins is the result of centric fusions (2n = 38, 39 and 40), suggesting a differentiation from a 2n = 40 ancestral karyotype and the presence of supernumerary chromosomes. The CBG- and RBG-banding patterns of the Bs are described. G. geckoides has 40 chromosomes with gradually decreasing sizes, but it is distinct from the 2n = 40 karyotypes of G. amarali and G. darwinii due to occurrence of pericentric inversions or centromere repositioning. NOR location seems to be a marker for Gymnodactylus, as G. amarali and G. geckoides share a medium-sized subtelocentric NOR-bearing pair, while G. darwinii has NORs at the secondary constriction of the long arm of pair 1. The comparative analyses indicate a non-random nature of the Robertsonian rearrangements in the genus Gymnodactylus. Copyright (C) 2010 S. Karger AG, Basel

Autonomia dos centros de pós-graduação em economia: uma abordagem institucional e de história oral

Este trabalho pretende analisar os principais centros de pós-graduação e de pesquisa em economia localizados em São Paulo e no Rio de Janeiro, a partir do levantamento de documentos, programas, regulamentos e publicações de seus principais expoentes. Também pretendemos utilizar depoimentos desses expoentes para entender como os processos decisórios foram analisados de "dentro" da instituição. A história da vida do entrevistado permite que entremos no mundo das emoções, nos limites da racionalidade do ator histórico. Ao quebrarmos o esquematismo simplista, podemos desvendar as relações entre o indivíduo e a rede histórica. A memória, com suas falhas, distorções e inversões, torna-se um elemento de análise para explicar o presente, a partir da compreensão do passado sob a ótica de quem vivenciou os fatos.