Interactive Epistemology and Reasoning: On the Foundations of Game Theory

Game theory describes and analyzes strategic interaction. It is usually distinguished between static games, which are strategic situations in which the players choose only once as well as simultaneously, and dynamic games, which are strategic situations involving sequential choices. In addition, dynamic games can be further classified according to perfect and imperfect information. Indeed, a dynamic game is said to exhibit perfect information, whenever at any point of the game every player has full informational access to all choices that have been conducted so far. However, in the case of imperfect information some players are not fully informed about some choices. Game-theoretic analysis proceeds in two steps. Firstly, games are modelled by so-called form structures which extract and formalize the significant parts of the underlying strategic interaction. The basic and most commonly used models of games are the normal form, which rather sparsely describes a game merely in terms of the players' strategy sets and utilities, and the extensive form, which models a game in a more detailed way as a tree. In fact, it is standard to formalize static games with the normal form and dynamic games with the extensive form. Secondly, solution concepts are developed to solve models of games in the sense of identifying the choices that should be taken by rational players. Indeed, the ultimate objective of the classical approach to game theory, which is of normative character, is the development of a solution concept that is capable of identifying a unique choice for every player in an arbitrary game. However, given the large variety of games, it is not at all certain whether it is possible to device a solution concept with such universal capability. Alternatively, interactive epistemology provides an epistemic approach to game theory of descriptive character. This rather recent discipline analyzes the relation between knowledge, belief and choice of game-playing agents in an epistemic framework. The description of the players' choices in a given game relative to various epistemic assumptions constitutes the fundamental problem addressed by an epistemic approach to game theory. In a general sense, the objective of interactive epistemology consists in characterizing existing game-theoretic solution concepts in terms of epistemic assumptions as well as in proposing novel solution concepts by studying the game-theoretic implications of refined or new epistemic hypotheses. Intuitively, an epistemic model of a game can be interpreted as representing the reasoning of the players. Indeed, before making a decision in a game, the players reason about the game and their respective opponents, given their knowledge and beliefs. Precisely these epistemic mental states on which players base their decisions are explicitly expressible in an epistemic framework. In this PhD thesis, we consider an epistemic approach to game theory from a foundational point of view. In Chapter 1, basic game-theoretic notions as well as Aumann's epistemic framework for games are expounded and illustrated. Also, Aumann's sufficient conditions for backward induction are presented and his conceptual views discussed. In Chapter 2, Aumann's interactive epistemology is conceptually analyzed. In Chapter 3, which is based on joint work with Conrad Heilmann, a three-stage account for dynamic games is introduced and a type-based epistemic model is extended with a notion of agent connectedness. Then, sufficient conditions for backward induction are derived. In Chapter 4, which is based on joint work with Jérémie Cabessa, a topological approach to interactive epistemology is initiated. In particular, the epistemic-topological operator limit knowledge is defined and some implications for games considered. In Chapter 5, which is based on joint work with Jérémie Cabessa and Andrés Perea, Aumann's impossibility theorem on agreeing to disagree is revisited and weakened in the sense that possible contexts are provided in which agents can indeed agree to disagree.

Improved virological outcome in White patients infected with HIV-1 non-B subtypes compared to subtype B.

BACKGROUND: Antiretroviral compounds have been predominantly studied in human immunodeficiency virus type 1 (HIV-1) subtype B, but only ~10% of infections worldwide are caused by this subtype. The analysis of the impact of different HIV subtypes on treatment outcome is important. METHODS: The effect of HIV-1 subtype B and non-B on the time to virological failure while taking combination antiretroviral therapy (cART) was analyzed. Other studies that have addressed this question were limited by the strong correlation between subtype and ethnicity. Our analysis was restricted to white patients from the Swiss HIV Cohort Study who started cART between 1996 and 2009. Cox regression models were performed; adjusted for age, sex, transmission category, first cART, baseline CD4 cell counts, and HIV RNA levels; and stratified for previous mono/dual nucleoside reverse-transcriptase inhibitor treatment. RESULTS: Included in our study were 4729 patients infected with subtype B and 539 with non-B subtypes. The most prevalent non-B subtypes were CRF02_AG (23.8%), A (23.4%), C (12.8%), and CRF01_AE (12.6%). The incidence of virological failure was higher in patients with subtype B (4.3 failures/100 person-years; 95% confidence interval [CI], 4.0-4.5]) compared with non-B (1.8 failures/100 person-years; 95% CI, 1.4-2.4). Cox regression models confirmed that patients infected with non-B subtypes had a lower risk of virological failure than those infected with subtype B (univariable hazard ratio [HR], 0.39 [95% CI, .30-.52; P < .001]; multivariable HR, 0.68 [95% CI, .51-.91; P = .009]). In particular, subtypes A and CRF02_AG revealed improved outcomes (multivariable HR, 0.54 [95% CI, .29-.98] and 0.39 [95% CI, .19-.79], respectively). CONCLUSIONS: Improved virological outcomes among patients infected with non-B subtypes invalidate concerns that these individuals are at a disadvantage because drugs have been designed primarily for subtype B infections.

White matter maturation reshapes structural connectivity in the late developing human brain.

From toddler to late teenager, the macroscopic pattern of axonal projections in the human brain remains largely unchanged while undergoing dramatic functional modifications that lead to network refinement. These functional modifications are mediated by increasing myelination and changes in axonal diameter and synaptic density, as well as changes in neurochemical mediators. Here we explore the contribution of white matter maturation to the development of connectivity between ages 2 and 18 y using high b-value diffusion MRI tractography and connectivity analysis. We measured changes in connection efficacy as the inverse of the average diffusivity along a fiber tract. We observed significant refinement in specific metrics of network topology, including a significant increase in node strength and efficiency along with a decrease in clustering. Major structural modules and hubs were in place by 2 y of age, and they continued to strengthen their profile during subsequent development. Recording resting-state functional MRI from a subset of subjects, we confirmed a positive correlation between structural and functional connectivity, and in addition observed that this relationship strengthened with age. Continuously increasing integration and decreasing segregation of structural connectivity with age suggests that network refinement mediated by white matter maturation promotes increased global efficiency. In addition, the strengthening of the correlation between structural and functional connectivity with age suggests that white matter connectivity in combination with other factors, such as differential modulation of axonal diameter and myelin thickness, that are partially captured by inverse average diffusivity, play an increasingly important role in creating brain-wide coherence and synchrony.

An interactive perspective of health education for the tropical disease control: the schistosomiasis case

Some municipalities in Brazil have been requesting orientation for the implementation of health education programs related to the control of schistosomiasis. This demand was based on experiences in the development of health education researches, strategies and materials for school-age children, involving the communities and secretaries of health and education. Motivated by this request and the recently implemented plan of health services (Unified Health System - Sistema Único de Saúde - SUS) that gives autonomy to the municipalities to utilize health resources and services in Brazil, this paper presents an interactive perspective of planning health education research and programs. The purpose of this perspective is to stimulate a reflection on the needs and actions of institutions and people involved in health education research and/or programs to obtain sustainability, commitment and effectiveness - not only in the control of schistosomiasis, but also in the improvement of environmental conditions, quality of life and personal health. This perspective comprises interaction among three levels related to health education programs: the decision level, the executive level and the beneficiary level. The needs and lines of action at each of these levels are discussed, as well as the ways in which they can interact with each other. This proposal may lead to useful interactive ways of planing, organizing, executing and evaluating health education research and/or program, not only towards the prevention and control of the disease at stake, but also to promote health in general.

Magnetic resonance imaging determinants of intraindividual variability in the elderly: combined analysis of grey and white matter.

Elderly individuals display a rapid age-related increase in intraindividual variability (IIV) of their performances. This phenomenon could reflect subtle changes in frontal lobe integrity. However, structural studies in this field are still missing. To address this issue, we computed an IIV index for a simple reaction time (RT) task and performed magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) including voxel based morphometry (VBM) and the tract based spatial statistics (TBSS) analysis of diffusion tensor imaging (DTI) in 61 adults aged from 22 to 88 years. The age-related IIV increase was associated with decreased fractional anisotropy (FA) as well as increased radial (RD) and mean (MD) diffusion in the main white matter (WM) fiber tracts. In contrast, axial diffusion (AD) and grey matter (GM) densities did not show any significant correlation with IIV. In multivariate models, only FA has an age-independent effect on IIV. These results revealed that WM but not GM changes partly mediated the age-related increase of IIV. They also revealed that the association between WM and IIV could not be only attributed to the damage of frontal lobe circuits but concerned the majority of interhemispheric and intrahemispheric corticocortical connections.

Community ecology of the metazoan parasites of white croaker, Micropogonias furnieri (Osteichthyes: Sciaenidae), from the coastal zone of the State of Rio de Janeiro, Brazil

One hundred specimens of white croakers, Micropogonias furnieri (Desmarest 1823) (Osteichthyes: Sciaenidae) collected from Pedra de Guaratiba (23°01'S, 43°38'W), State of Rio de Janeiro, Brazil, from September 1997 to August 1999, were necropsied to study their parasites. The majority of the fish (95%) were parasitized by metazoan. Twenty-eight species of parasites were collected. The nematodes were the 40.5% of the total number of parasites specimens collected. Dichelyne elongatus was the most dominant species. Lobatostoma ringens, Pterinotrematoides mexicanum, Corynosoma australe, D. elongatus, and Caligus haemulonis showed a positive correlation between the host's total length and parasite prevalence and abundance. The monogenean P. mexicanum had differences in the prevalence and abundance in relation to sex of the host. The mean diversity in the infracommunities of M. furnieri was H=0.499±0.411, with correlation with the host's total length and without differences in relation to sex of the host. One pair of ectoparasites showed positive covariation, and two pairs of endoparasites showed positive association and covariation between their prevalences and abundances, respectively. Negative association or covariations were not found. The dominance of endoparasites in the croakers parasite infracommunities reinforced the differences found in sciaenids from the South American Pacific Ocean, in which the ectoparasites are dominant.

Allocating Resources to HSS Boards: Proposed Changes to the Weighted Capitation Formula - Final Consultation Summary (PDF 167 KB)

Allocating Resources to HSS Boards: Proposed Changes to the Weighted Capitation Formula - Final Consultation Summary

MyHits: a new interactive resource for protein annotation and domain identification.

The MyHits web server (http://myhits.isb-sib.ch) is a new integrated service dedicated to the annotation of protein sequences and to the analysis of their domains and signatures. Guest users can use the system anonymously, with full access to (i) standard bioinformatics programs (e.g. PSI-BLAST, ClustalW, T-Coffee, Jalview); (ii) a large number of protein sequence databases, including standard (Swiss-Prot, TrEMBL) and locally developed databases (splice variants); (iii) databases of protein motifs (Prosite, Interpro); (iv) a precomputed list of matches ('hits') between the sequence and motif databases. All databases are updated on a weekly basis and the hit list is kept up to date incrementally. The MyHits server also includes a new collection of tools to generate graphical representations of pairwise and multiple sequence alignments including their annotated features. Free registration enables users to upload their own sequences and motifs to private databases. These are then made available through the same web interface and the same set of analytical tools. Registered users can manage their own sequences and annotations using only web tools and freeze their data in their private database for publication purposes.

Allocating Resources to the HSS Boards: Proposed Changes to the Weighted Capitation Formula (PDF 52 KB)

A Third Report from the Capitation Formula Review Group

Performance-Related Awards: Health Boards Scheme

Performance-Related Awards: Health Boards Scheme This progress report to September 2003 on the performance-related awards scheme for senior health board management has been prepared by the Committee for Performance Awards for the Health Board Scheme, in line with the recommendation in Report No. 38 of the Review Body for Higher Remuneration in the Public Sector, to contribute to the Review Bodyâ?Ts consideration at its next general review (para 13.4). Click here to download PDF 93kb

Performance-Related Awards: Health Boards Scheme

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White Paper on Private Health Insurance

This White Paper, which arises from commitments in the Action Programme for the New Millennium, sets out the Government’s policy objectives and proposals regarding the role of private health insurance in the overall healthcare system, the regulation of the health insurance market, and the corporate structure and status of the Voluntary Health Insurance Board Download the Report here