Case study part 2: probabilistic modelling of long-term effects of pesticides on individual breeding success in birds and mammals

Abstract: Long-term exposure of skylarks to a fictitious insecticide and of wood mice to a fictitious fungicide were modelled probabilistically in a Monte Carlo simulation. Within the same simulation the consequences of exposure to pesticides on reproductive success were modelled using the toxicity-exposure-linking rules developed by R.S. Bennet et al. (2005) and the interspecies extrapolation factors suggested by R. Luttik et al.(2005). We built models to reflect a range of scenarios and as a result were able to show how exposure to pesticide might alter the number of individuals engaged in any given phase of the breeding cycle at any given time and predict the numbers of new adults at the season’s end.

Risk assessment of UK skylark populations using life-history and individual-based landscape models

Abstract: Following a workshop exercise, two models, an individual-based landscape model (IBLM) and a non-spatial life-history model were used to assess the impact of a fictitious insecticide on populations of skylarks in the UK. The chosen population endpoints were abundance, population growth rate, and the chances of population persistence. Both models used the same life-history descriptors and toxicity profiles as the basis for their parameter inputs. The models differed in that exposure was a pre-determined parameter in the life-history model, but an emergent property of the IBLM, and the IBLM required a landscape structure as an input. The model outputs were qualitatively similar between the two models. Under conditions dominated by winter wheat, both models predicted a population decline that was worsened by the use of the insecticide. Under broader habitat conditions, population declines were only predicted for the scenarios where the insecticide was added. Inputs to the models are very different, with the IBLM requiring a large volume of data in order to achieve the flexibility of being able to integrate a range of environmental and behavioural factors. The life-history model has very few explicit data inputs, but some of these relied on extensive prior modelling needing additional data as described in Roelofs et al.(2005, this volume). Both models have strengths and weaknesses; hence the ideal approach is that of combining the use of both simple and comprehensive modeling tools.

Antibiosis in wheat interacts with crowding stress to affect Metopolophiumdirhodum development and susceptibility to malathion

We used a laboratory study to compare the performance of rose-grain aphid, Metopolophium dirhodum(Walker)(Hemiptera:Aphididae),onthewheatcultivars‘Huntsman’(susceptible)and‘Rapier’ (partiallyresistant)inbothlowdensity(uncrowded)andhighdensity(crowded)coloniesandexamined the consequences for aphid susceptibility to malathion. Adult apterae that developed on Rapier wheat had their mean relative growth rate (MRGR) reduced by 6 and 9% under uncrowded and crowded conditions, respectively, whereas the crowding treatment reduced MRGR by 3%, but only in Rapier aphids. Rapier resistance also reduced adult dry weight by 13 and 14% under crowded and uncrowded conditions, respectively, whereas crowding reduced it by 34 and 35% in Rapier and Huntsman aphids, respectively. Development on Rapier substantially reduced the topical LC50 of malathion by 37.8 and 34.8% under crowded and uncrowded conditions, suggesting that plant antibiosis increased malathion susceptibility. By comparison, crowding only reduced the LC50 by 29.5 and 26.0% on Huntsman and Rapier. The LD50 data showed that reductions on aphid body size on Rapier and through crowding did not fully explain the differences in LC50. This was particularly in the values for crowded aphids that were actually 80% higher than for uncrowded ones. Thi sapparent tolerance of crowded aphids, however, may partly be due to loss of insecticide from small aphids at dosing. Evidence of synergy between plant resistance and insecticide susceptibility raisest he possibility of using reduced concentrations of pesticides to control aphids on resistant crop cultivars, with diminished impacts on non-target and beneficial species important in integrated pest management(IPM)program

The impact of secondary pests on Bacillus thuringiensis (Bt) crops

The intensification of agriculture and the development of synthetic insecticides enabled worldwide grain production to more than double in the last third of the 20th century. However, the heavy dependence and, in some cases, overuse of insecticides has been responsible for negative environmental and ecological impacts across the globe, such as a reduction in biodiversity, insect resistance to pesticides, negative effects on nontarget species (e.g. natural enemies) and the development of secondary pests. The use of recombinant DNA technology to develop genetically engineered (GE) insect resistant crops could mitigate many of the negative side effects of pesticides. One such genetic alteration enables crops to express toxic crystalline (Cry) proteins from the soil bacteria Bacillus thuringiensis (Bt). Despite the widespread adoption of Bt crops, there are still a range of unanswered questions concerning longer term agro-ecosystem interactions. For instance, insect species that are not susceptible to the expressed toxin can develop into secondary pests and cause significant damage to the crop. Here we review the main causes surrounding secondary pest dynamics in Bt crops and the impact of such outbreaks. Regardless of the causes, if non-susceptible secondary pest populations exceed economic thresholds, insecticide spraying could become the immediate solution at farmers’ disposal, and the sustainable use of this genetic modification technology may be in jeopardy. Based on the literature, recommendations for future research are outlined that will help to improve the knowledge of the possible longterm ecological trophic interactions of employing this technology.

Local and landscape effects on bee functional guilds in pigeon pea crops in Kenya

Pollinators face many challenges within agricultural systems due to landscape changes and intensification which can affect resource availability that can impact pollination services. This paper examines pigeon pea pollination and considers how landscape context and agricultural intensification in terms of pesticide use affects the abundance of bees characterized by species guilds on crops. The study was conducted on six paired farms across a gradient of habitat complexity based on the distance of each farm from adjacent semi-natural vegetation in Kibwezi Sub-county, Kenya. The study found that farms which do not use insecticides in farm management, but are in close proximity to natural habitat have greater bee guild abundance, but at further distances, overall abundance is reduced with or without insecticide use. At 1 km landscape radius, the complexity of habitats but not patch size had a positive impact on the abundance of cavity nesting bees and mason bees, which can be attributed to the interspersion of the small-holder farms with semi-natural habitats across the landscapes producing mosaics of heterogeneous habitats. The study revealed the strongest relationships between fruit set and bee abundance to be with the carpenter bee, social bee and solitary bee guilds, which are among the most abundant bees visiting pigeon pea flowers in this system. Our findings provide the foundation for conservation efforts by identifying which bee guilds pollinated pigeon peas. From this study, we suggest managing the floral and nesting resources that would best support the most abundant crop pollinators, and also reducing insecticide application to the crop.

Managing maize under pest species competition: is Bt (Bacillus thuringiensis) maize the solution?

Transgenic crops that contain Cry genes from Bacillus thuringiensis (Bt) have been adopted by farmers over the last 17 years. Unlike traditional broad spectrum chemical insecticides, Bt's toxicity spectrum is relatively narrow and selective, which may indirectly benefit secondary insects that may become important pests. The economic damage caused by the rise of secondary pests could offset some or all of the benefits associated with the use of Bt varieties. We develop a bioeconomic model to analyze the interactions between primary and secondary insect populations and the impact of different management options on insecticide use and economic impact over time. Results indicate that some of the benefits associated with the adoption of genetically engineered insect resistant crops may be eroded when taking into account ecological dynamics. It is suggested that secondary pests could easily become key insect pests requiring additional measures - such as insecticide applications or stacked traits – to keep their populations under the economic threshold.

Knowledge and perception of Ghanaian cocoa farmers on mirid control and their willingness to use forecasting systems

Annual losses of cocoa in Ghana to mirids are significant. Therefore, accurate timing of insecticide application is critical to enhance yields. However, cocoa farmers often lack information on the expected mirid population for each season to enable them to optimise pesticide use. This study assessed farmers’ knowledge and perceptions of mirid control and their willingness to use forecasting systems informing them of expected mirid peaks and time of application of pesticides. A total of 280 farmers were interviewed in the Eastern and Ashanti regions of Ghana with a structured open and closed ended questionnaire. Most farmers (87%) considered mirids as the most important insect pest on cocoa with 47% of them attributing 30-40% annual crop loss to mirid damage. There was wide variation in the timing of insecticide application as a result of farmers using different sources of information to guide the start of application. The majority of farmers (56%) do not have access to information on the type, frequency and timing of insecticides to use. However, respondents who are members of farmer groups had better access to such information. Extension officers were the preferred channel for information transfer to farmers with 72% of farmers preferring them to other available methods of communication. Almost all the respondents (99%) saw the need for a comprehensive forecasting system to help farmers manage cocoa mirids. The importance of accurate timing for mirid control based on forecasted information to farmer groups and extension officers was discussed.

Knockdown resistance in pyrethroid-resistant horn fly (Diptera: Muscidae) populations in Brazil

To investigate the kdr (knockdown resistance) resistance-associated gene mutation and determine its frequency in pyrethroid-resistant horn fly (Haematobia irritans) populations, a total of 1,804 horn flies of 37 different populations from all Brazilian regions (North, Northeast, Central-West, Southeast, and South) were molecular screened through polymerase chain reaction (PCR). The kdr gene was not detected in 87.08% of the flies. However, the gene was amplified in 12.92% of the flies, of which 11.70% were resistant heterozygous and 1.22% were resistant homozygous. Deviation from Hardy-Weinberg equilibrium (HWE) was found only in 1 ranch with an excess of heterozygous. When populations were grouped by region, three metapopulations showed significant deviations of HWE (Central-West population, South population and Southeast population). This indicates that populations are isolated one from another and kdr occurrence seems to be an independent effect probably reflecting the insecticide strategy used by each ranch. Although resistance to pyrethroids is disseminated throughout Brazil, only 48% of resistant populations had kdr flies, and the frequency of kdr individuals in each of these resistant populations was quite low. But this study shows that, with the apparent exception of the Northeast region, the kdr mechanism associated with pyrethroid resistance occurs all over Brazil.

Diagnoses of fipronil resistance in Brazilian cattle ticks (Rhipicephalus (Boophilus) microplus) using in vitro larval bioassays

Fipronil is a phenylpyrazolic insecticide that is widely used in agriculture and has been recently used to control the cattle tick, Rhipicephalus (Boophilus) microplus. Because of the serious problems associated with resistance to the available acaricides, this product has been used as an important alternative to control acaricide-resistant ticks. The objective of this work was to analyse the fipronil sensitivity of ticks that were collected from farms with a history of fipronil use by larval bioassays. A total of 11 Brazilian tick populations were studied: one population from Rio Grande do Sul, one population from Mato Grosso do Sul and nine populations from Sao Paulo. To validate the assays, susceptible reference strains, POA (Porto Alegre, Brazil) and Mozo (Dilave, Uruguay), and ticks from six different farms that never used fipronil were tested. The resistance of various tick populations to technical grade fipronil (95.3%) was primarily evaluated using the larvae immersion test (LIT) and the larval packet test (LPT), when a sufficient number of larvae was collected. Using the LIT, the resistance ratios (RR(50)) of the tick populations from Rio Grande do Sul and Mato Grosso do Sul were 14.9 and 2.6, respectively, and the populations derived from Sao Paulo had RR(50)s ranging from 2.5 to 6.9. Four populations were evaluated with the LPT, and two populations displayed lower RR(50), while other populations displayed higher RR(50) than those determined by the LIT. This article reports the first cases of fipronil resistance in Brazil and highlights the LIT as a more sensitive technique for the evaluation of fipronil resistance in R. (B) microplus ticks. We suggest the use of the LIT as an evaluation tool for monitoring fipronil resistance in the control programmes of R. (B) microplus. (C) 2010 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Determination of the susceptibility of Rhipicephalus (Boophilus) microplus (Acari: Ixodidae) to ivermectin and fipronil by Larval Immersion Test (LIT) in Uruguay

Rhipicephalus (Boophilus) microplus is an important cattle pest in Uruguay, and the law regulates its control. It is resistant to organophosphates, synthetic pyrethroids and, as recently discovered, to fipronil. Resistance to macrocyclic lactones (MLs) and amitraz have not been documented; however, veterinarians and farmers have reported treatment failures. The objective of the present work was to study the susceptibility of cattle tick strains from different Uruguayan counties to ivermectin (IVM) and fipronil by using the Larval Immersion Test (LIT). The Mozo strain was used as the susceptible reference strain. From 2007 to 2009, twenty-eight tick populations were collected from different cattle farms with and without history of IVM or fipronil use. A probit analysis estimated dose-mortality regressions, lethal concentrations (LC), and confidence intervals. The resistance ratio (RR) was determined at the LC(50) and LC(90) estimates. To classify a tick population in relation to resistance, three categories based on a statistical analysis of LC and RR between field populations and Mozo strains were defined: susceptible (no differences), incipient resistance (differences and RR(50) < 2) and resistant (differences and RR(50) >= 2). Eighteen field populations were tested with IVM and five of them presented a RR(50) range between 1.35 and 1.98 and the LC(50/90), which is statistically different from the Mozo strain (incipient resistance). However, the RR(90) increases >= 2 in four of the populations, confirming that tick resistance to IVM is emergent. The low RR values obtained could be a result of a low frequency of treatments with IVM. Twenty-seven tick populations were tested with fipronil and six were diagnosed as resistant according to the LIT. Cross-resistance was not observed between fipronil and IVM on these tick populations. The current study presents different R. (B.) microplus populations with an incipient resistance to IVM, and indicates that the fipronil tick resistance is restricted to certain areas in Uruguay. (c) 2011 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

DDT and metabolites residues in the southern bent-wing bat (Miniopterus schreibersii bassanii) of south-eastern Australia

The southern bent-wing bat (Miniopterus schreibersii bassanii) is an insectivorous, obligate cave dwelling species found in south-eastern South Australia and western Victoria, Australia. In recent times, the finger of blame for an apparent population decline at Bat Cave, Naracoorte (one of only two known maternity roosts for this species, the other being Starlight Cave, Warrnambool) has been pointed at pesticide use in the region, following the finding of organochlorine and organophosphate insecticide residues in bat guano. This study sampled juvenile southern bent-wing bats from Bat Cave and Starlight Cave, and determined DDT, DDD and DDE concentrations in liver, pectoral muscle, brain and back-depot fat tissues.

Organochlorine and trace metal residues in adult southern bent-wing bat (Miniopterus schreibersii bassanii) in Southeastern Australia

In recent times, the apparent population decline of the southern bent-wing bat (Miniopterus schreibersii bassanii) at Bat Cave, Naracoorte has been ascribed to pesticide use in the region, following the finding of organochlorine and orgaonophosphate insecticide residues in bat guano. Adult southern bent-wing bats were collected from Bat Cave and Starlight Cave in 2003. Organochlorine contaminants were detected in all carcass samples: p,p′-DDE was by far the most dominant contaminant with concentrations ranging from 11 000 to 59 000 ng g⁻¹, followed by p,p′-DDT (110–1600 ng g⁻¹), p,p′-DDD (35–620 ng g⁻¹), ∑PCBs (33–490 ng g⁻¹), ∑chlordane and related compounds (7.9–270 ng g⁻¹), HCB (1.6–120 ng g⁻¹), HP epox. (3.1–230 ng g⁻¹), TCPMOH (3.8–38 ng g⁻¹), ∑HCHs (1.4–9.6 ng g⁻¹), and TCPMe (0.1–4.2 ng g⁻¹) (all values on lipid-weight basis). No significant difference in DDE, DDD, DDT, ∑DDT, ∑PCB, trans-chlordane, heptachlor epoxide, trans-nonachlor, α-HCH, β-HCH, γ-HCH, TCPMOH or TCPMe concentrations were observed either between sexes within sites, or between sites (p > 0.05). However, there were significant differences in HCB and oxychlordane concentrations between sexes and between sites (p < 0.05), between site differences in cis-nonachlor concentrations in male bats (p < 0.05), and cis-chlordane concentrations between sexes at Starlight Cave, and between males of each site (p < 0.05). There were also significant differences in the liver concentrations of some metals between sexes within sites (Ag, Cd, Co, Cu, Pb, Se, Zn), and between sites (Ag, Cd, Co, Cu, Hg, Pb, Se, V, Zn). Clustering or grouping of sites was observed when the OC data was expressed on a lipid-weight basis. These inter-site differences in OC concentrations reflect local exposure over a period of time, and do not unambiguously support any suggestion that we are witnessing incipient speciation. However, for conservation purposes, it may be prudent to assume that there are two sub-populations of M. s. bassani feeding in different locations in this region of southern Australia, rather than the single homogeneous population suggested by genetic studies.

Electrochemical behaviour of the pyrethroid insecticides

A systematic study is made of the electrochemical reduction and oxidation of eighteen pyrethroid insecticides and six model compounds. In addition the electrochemical oxidation of an insecticide synergist and the reduction of an insect repellent is studied. Oxidation and reduction mechanisms were partially or fully assigned for the the electrochemical reactions. The results indicate the presence of two oxidation sites common to the majority of pyrethroids. Specific sites of electrochemical reduction are observed for a number of pyrethroids. The electrochemical respones may be applied to the selective determination of a number pf pyrethroids synergists and repellents in commercial formulations without the requirement of pyrethroids, synergists and repellents in commerical formulations without the requirement for extensive sample preparation or the use of a separation technique.

Copy number variation and transposable elements feature in recent, ongoing adaptation at the Cyp6g1 locus

The increased transcription of the Cyp6g1 gene of Drosophila melanogaster, and consequent resistance to insecticides such as DDT, is a widely cited example of adaptation mediated by cis-regulatory change. A fragment of an Accord transposable element inserted upstream of the Cyp6g1 gene is causally associated with resistance and has spread to high frequencies in populations around the world since the 1940s. Here we report the existence of a natural allelic series at this locus of D. melanogaster, involving copy number variation of Cyp6g1, and two additional transposable element insertions (a P and an HMS-Beagle). We provide evidence that this genetic variation underpins phenotypic variation, as the more derived the allele, the greater the level of DDT resistance. Tracking the spatial and temporal patterns of allele frequency changes indicates that the multiple steps of the allelic series are adaptive. Further, a DDT association study shows that the most resistant allele, Cyp6g1-[BP], is greatly enriched in the top 5% of the phenotypic distribution and accounts for ~16% of the underlying phenotypic variation in resistance to DDT. In contrast, copy number variation for another candidate resistance gene, Cyp12d1, is not associated with resistance. Thus the Cyp6g1 locus is a major contributor to DDT resistance in field populations, and evolution at this locus features multiple adaptive steps occurring in rapid succession.

Global, regional, and national incidence and mortality for HIV, tuberculosis, and malaria during 1990-2013: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2013

BACKGROUND: The Millennium Declaration in 2000 brought special global attention to HIV, tuberculosis, and malaria through the formulation of Millennium Development Goal (MDG) 6. The Global Burden of Disease 2013 study provides a consistent and comprehensive approach to disease estimation for between 1990 and 2013, and an opportunity to assess whether accelerated progress has occured since the Millennium Declaration. METHODS: To estimate incidence and mortality for HIV, we used the UNAIDS Spectrum model appropriately modified based on a systematic review of available studies of mortality with and without antiretroviral therapy (ART). For concentrated epidemics, we calibrated Spectrum models to fit vital registration data corrected for misclassification of HIV deaths. In generalised epidemics, we minimised a loss function to select epidemic curves most consistent with prevalence data and demographic data for all-cause mortality. We analysed counterfactual scenarios for HIV to assess years of life saved through prevention of mother-to-child transmission (PMTCT) and ART. For tuberculosis, we analysed vital registration and verbal autopsy data to estimate mortality using cause of death ensemble modelling. We analysed data for corrected case-notifications, expert opinions on the case-detection rate, prevalence surveys, and estimated cause-specific mortality using Bayesian meta-regression to generate consistent trends in all parameters. We analysed malaria mortality and incidence using an updated cause of death database, a systematic analysis of verbal autopsy validation studies for malaria, and recent studies (2010-13) of incidence, drug resistance, and coverage of insecticide-treated bednets. FINDINGS: Globally in 2013, there were 1·8 million new HIV infections (95% uncertainty interval 1·7 million to 2·1 million), 29·2 million prevalent HIV cases (28·1 to 31·7), and 1·3 million HIV deaths (1·3 to 1·5). At the peak of the epidemic in 2005, HIV caused 1·7 million deaths (1·6 million to 1·9 million). Concentrated epidemics in Latin America and eastern Europe are substantially smaller than previously estimated. Through interventions including PMTCT and ART, 19·1 million life-years (16·6 million to 21·5 million) have been saved, 70·3% (65·4 to 76·1) in developing countries. From 2000 to 2011, the ratio of development assistance for health for HIV to years of life saved through intervention was US$4498 in developing countries. Including in HIV-positive individuals, all-form tuberculosis incidence was 7·5 million (7·4 million to 7·7 million), prevalence was 11·9 million (11·6 million to 12·2 million), and number of deaths was 1·4 million (1·3 million to 1·5 million) in 2013. In the same year and in only individuals who were HIV-negative, all-form tuberculosis incidence was 7·1 million (6·9 million to 7·3 million), prevalence was 11·2 million (10·8 million to 11·6 million), and number of deaths was 1·3 million (1·2 million to 1·4 million). Annualised rates of change (ARC) for incidence, prevalence, and death became negative after 2000. Tuberculosis in HIV-negative individuals disproportionately occurs in men and boys (versus women and girls); 64·0% of cases (63·6 to 64·3) and 64·7% of deaths (60·8 to 70·3). Globally, malaria cases and deaths grew rapidly from 1990 reaching a peak of 232 million cases (143 million to 387 million) in 2003 and 1·2 million deaths (1·1 million to 1·4 million) in 2004. Since 2004, child deaths from malaria in sub-Saharan Africa have decreased by 31·5% (15·7 to 44·1). Outside of Africa, malaria mortality has been steadily decreasing since 1990. INTERPRETATION: Our estimates of the number of people living with HIV are 18·7% smaller than UNAIDS's estimates in 2012. The number of people living with malaria is larger than estimated by WHO. The number of people living with HIV, tuberculosis, or malaria have all decreased since 2000. At the global level, upward trends for malaria and HIV deaths have been reversed and declines in tuberculosis deaths have accelerated. 101 countries (74 of which are developing) still have increasing HIV incidence. Substantial progress since the Millennium Declaration is an encouraging sign of the effect of global action. FUNDING: Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.