Commentary on "Child Welfare Waivers: The Stakes for Families"

The purpose of this piece is to provide commentary of an article, Child Welfare Waivers: The Stakes for Your State, that discusses the recent reauthorization of the Title IV-E Child Welfare Waivers. The article provides an overview of funds available to the states for child welfare programs and their intended purpose and restrictions placed on use. As structured, the present system rewards states monetarily for maintaining foster care. Research from waiver programs shows promising results for improved outcomes at the same or lower financial cost by utilizing safe, proven alternatives to the current foster care system. Waiver funds also protect the financial commitment to child welfare because state legislative budget slashing in this area will result in the loss of Federal funding. The independent analysis required with the grant of a waiver must be maintained to provide ongoing analysis and oversight of the increase spending flexibility. Stakeholders must be aware of the program and its results and use these funds as an opportunity to assess new concepts and apply programs best suited to the needs of children in their state. Allowing those “on the ground” to determine appropriate programming and careful result assessment may be the best means for protecting children, preserving families and doing both in a manner that makes the most efficient use of available resources.

Cost and power analysis of linkage disequilibrium methods for locating genes influencing quantitative traits in humans

Linkage disequilibrium methods can be used to find genes influencing quantitative trait variation in humans. Linkage disequilibrium methods can require smaller sample sizes than linkage equilibrium methods, such as the variance component approach to find loci with a specific effect size. The increase in power is at the expense of requiring more markers to be typed to scan the entire genome. This thesis compares different linkage disequilibrium methods to determine which factors influence the power to detect disequilibrium. The costs of disequilibrium and equilibrium tests were compared to determine whether the savings in phenotyping costs when using disequilibrium methods outweigh the additional genotyping costs.^ Nine linkage disequilibrium tests were examined by simulation. Five tests involve selecting isolated unrelated individuals while four involved the selection of parent child trios (TDT). All nine tests were found to be able to identify disequilibrium with the correct significance level in Hardy-Weinberg populations. Increasing linked genetic variance and trait allele frequency were found to increase the power to detect disequilibrium, while increasing the number of generations and distance between marker and trait loci decreased the power to detect disequilibrium. Discordant sampling was used for several of the tests. It was found that the more stringent the sampling, the greater the power to detect disequilibrium in a sample of given size. The power to detect disequilibrium was not affected by the presence of polygenic effects.^ When the trait locus had more than two trait alleles, the power of the tests maximized to less than one. For the simulation methods used here, when there were more than two-trait alleles there was a probability equal to 1-heterozygosity of the marker locus that both trait alleles were in disequilibrium with the same marker allele, resulting in the marker being uninformative for disequilibrium.^ The five tests using isolated unrelated individuals were found to have excess error rates when there was disequilibrium due to population admixture. Increased error rates also resulted from increased unlinked major gene effects, discordant trait allele frequency, and increased disequilibrium. Polygenic effects did not affect the error rates. The TDT, Transmission Disequilibrium Test, based tests were not liable to any increase in error rates.^ For all sample ascertainment costs, for recent mutations ($<$100 generations) linkage disequilibrium tests were less expensive than the variance component test to carry out. Candidate gene scans saved even more money. The use of recently admixed populations also decreased the cost of performing a linkage disequilibrium test. ^

A new methodical approach in neuroscience: assessing inter-personal brain coupling using functional near-infrared imaging (fNIRI) hyperscanning

Since the first demonstration of how to simultaneously measure brain activity using functional magnetic resonance imaging (fMRI) on two subjects about 10 years ago, a new paradigm in neuroscience is emerging: measuring brain activity from two or more people simultaneously, termed "hyperscanning". The hyperscanning approach has the potential to reveal inter-personal brain mechanisms underlying interaction-mediated brain-to-brain coupling. These mechanisms are engaged during real social interactions, and cannot be captured using single-subject recordings. In particular, functional near-infrared imaging (fNIRI) hyperscanning is a promising new method, offering a cost-effective, easy to apply and reliable technology to measure inter-personal interactions in a natural context. In this short review we report on fNIRI hyperscanning studies published so far and summarize opportunities and challenges for future studies.

Attributing inpatient care to diabetes: The case of Medicare for the elderly in Texas, 1995

Specific aims. This study estimated the accuracy of alternative numerator methods for attributing health care utilization and associated costs to diabetes by comparing findings from those methods with findings from a benchmark denominator method. ^ Methods. Using Medicare's 1995 inpatient and enrollment databases for the elderly in Texas, the researcher developed alternative estimates of costs attributable to diabetes. Among alternative numerator methods were selection of all records having diabetes as a principal or secondary diagnosis, and a complex ICD-9-CM sorting routine as previously developed for study of diabetes costs in Texas. Findings from numerator methods were compared with those from a benchmark denominator method based on attributable risk and adapted from a study of national diabetes costs by the American Diabetes Association. This study applied age, gender and ethnicity specific estimates of diabetes prevalence taken from the 1987–94 National Health Interview Surveys to person-months of Medicare Part A, non-HMO enrollment for Texas in 1995. Outcome measures were number of persons identified as having diabetes using alternative definitions of the disease; and number of hospital stays, patient days, and costs using alternative methods for attributing care and costs to diabetes. Cost estimates were based on Medicare payments plus deductibles, co-pays and third party payments. ^ Findings. Numerator methods for attributing costs to diabetes produced findings quite different than those from the benchmark denominator method. When attribution was based on diabetes as principal or secondary diagnosis, the resulting estimates were significantly higher than those obtained from the denominator method. The more complex sorting routine produced estimates near the lower boundary for the confidence interval associated with estimates from the benchmark method. ^ Conclusions. Numerator methods employed by previous researchers poorly estimate the costs of diabetes. While crude mathematical adjustment can be made to the respective numerator approaches, a more useful strategy would be to refine the complex sorting routine to include more hospitalizations. This report recommends approaches to improving methods previously employed in study of diabetes costs. ^

Endogenous Financing and the Long Run Impact of Money Growth on Output and Prices

Most monetary models make use of the quantity theory of money along with a Phillips curve. This implies a strong correlation between money growth and output in the short run (with little or no correlation between money and prices) and a strong long run correlation between money growth and inflation and inflation (with little or no correlation between money growth and output). The empirical evidence between money and inflation is very robust, but the long run money/output relationship is ambiguous at best. This paper attempts to explain this by looking at the impact of money growth on firm financing.

Efficiency in Deregulated Electricity Markets: Offer Cost Minimization vs. Payment Cost Minimization Auction

This study of the wholesale electricity market compares the efficiency performance of the auction mechanism currently in place in U.S. markets with the performance of a proposed mechanism. The analysis highlights the importance of considering strategic behavior when comparing different institutional systems. We find that in concentrated markets, neither auction mechanism can guarantee an efficient allocation. The advantage of the current mechanism increases with increased price competition if market demand is perfectly inelastic. However, if market demand has some responsiveness to price, the superiority of the current auction with respect to efficiency is not that obvious. We present a case where the proposed auction outperforms the current mechanism on efficiency even if all offers reflect true production costs. We also find that a market designer might face a choice problem with a tradeoff between lower electricity cost and production efficiency. Some implications for social welfare are discussed as well.

International Money and Finance

We discuss the effectiveness of pegged exchange rate regimes from an historical perspective, drawing conclusions for their effectiveness today. Starting with the classical gold standard period, we point out that a succession of pegged regimes have ended in failure; except for the first, which was ended by the outbreak of World War I, all of the others we discuss have been ended by adverse economic developments for which the regimes themselves were partly responsible. Prior to World War II the main problem was a shortage of monetary gold that we argue is implicated as a cause of the Great Depression. After World War II, more particularly from the late-1960s, the main problem has been a surfeit of the main international reserve asset, the US dollar. This has led to generalized inflation in the 1970s and into the 1980s. Today, excessive dollar international base money creation is again a problem that could have serious consequences for world economic stability.

The economic cost of type 2 diabetes attributable to physical inactivity in the United States and Texas in 2007

Type 2 diabetes has grown to epidemic proportions in the U.S., and its prevalence has been steadily increasing in Texas. The physical activity levels in the population have remained low despite it being one of the primary preventive strategies for type 2 diabetes. The objectives of this study were to estimate the direct medical costs of type 2 diabetes attributable to not meeting physical activity Guidelines and to physical inactivity in the U.S. and Texas in 2007. This was a cross sectional study that used physical activity prevalence data from the 2007 Behavioral Risk Factor Surveillance System (BRFSS) to estimate the population attributable risk percentage (PAR%) for type 2 diabetes. These data were combined with the prevalence and cost data of type 2 diabetes to estimate the cost of type 2 diabetes attributable to not meeting Guidelines and to inactivity in the U.S. and Texas in 2007.^ The cost of type 2 diabetes in the U.S. in 2007, attributable to not meeting physical activity Guidelines was estimated to be $13.29 billion, and that attributable to physical inactivity (no leisure time physical activity) was estimated to be $3.32 billion. Depending on various assumptions, these estimates ranged from $7.61 billion to $41.48 billion for not meeting Guidelines, and $1.90 billion to $13.20 billion for physical inactivity in the U.S. in 2007. The cost of type 2 diabetes in Texas in 2007 attributable to not meeting physical activity Guidelines was estimated to be $1.15 billion, and that attributable to physical inactivity (no leisure time physical activity) was estimated to be $325 million. Depending on various assumptions, these estimates ranged from $800 million to $3.47 billion for not meeting Guidelines, and $186 million to $1.28 billion for physical inactivity in Texas in 2007. These results illustrate how much money could be saved annually just in terms of type 2 diabetes cost in the U.S. and Texas, if the entire adult population was active enough to meet physical activity Guidelines. Physical activity promotion, particularly at the environmental and policy level should be a priority in the population. ^

The cost of publicly financed dental care in relation to community water fluoridation in Texas

Dental caries lead to children being less ready to learn and results in diminished productivity in the classroom. Tooth decay causes pain and infection, leading to impaired chewing, speech, and facial expression, in addition to a loss in self-esteem. There have been many studies supporting the safety and efficacy of community water fluoridation in reducing dental caries. Water fluoridation has been identified by the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention as one of 10 great public health achievements of the 20th century. The decline in the prevalence and severity of tooth decay in the United States during the past 60 years has been attributed largely to the increased use of fluoride; in particular, the widespread utilization of community water fluoridation. However, in the decades since fluoridation was first introduced, reductions in dental caries have declined, most likely due to the presence of other sources of fluoride. Questions have been raised regarding the need to continue to fluoridate community water supplies in the face of possible excessive exposure to fluoride. Nevertheless, dental caries continue to be a significant public health burden throughout the world, including the United States, especially among low-income and disadvantaged populations. Although many poor children receive their dental care through Medicaid, the percentage of Texas children with untreated dental caries continues to exceed the U.S. average and is well above Healthy People 2010 goals, even as state Medicaid expenditures continue to rise. The objective of this study is to determine the relationship between Medicaid dental expenditures and community water fluoridation levels in Texas counties. By examining this relationship, the cost-effectiveness of community water fluoridation in the Texas pediatric Medicaid beneficiary population, as measured by publicly financed dental care expenditures, may be ascertained.^

Child Welfare Waivers: The Stakes for Families

Congress has restored the authority of the U.S. Department of Health and Human Services to issue “waivers” from rules restricting the use of some funds under Title IV-E of the Social Security Act. The waivers allow funds now restricted to foster care to be used for prevention, family preservation and other services as well. This paper discusses the benefits of waivers and estimates the amount of money that a waiver would cover in each state.

HEALTH CARE COST INCREASES IN METROPOLITAN AREAS

The research project is an extension of the economic theory to the health care field and health care research projects evaluating the influence of demand and supply variables upon medical care inflation. The research tests a model linking the demographic and socioeconomic characteristics of the population, its community case mix, and technology, the prices of goods and services other than medical care, the way its medical services are delivered and the health care resources available to its population to different utilization patterns which, consequently, lead to variations in health care prices among metropolitan areas. The research considers the relationship of changes in community characteristics and resources and medical care inflation.^ The rapidly increasing costs of medical care have been of great concern to the general public, medical profession, and political bodies. Research and analysis of the main factors responsible for the rate of increase of medical care prices is necessary in order to devise appropriate solutions to cope with the problem. An understanding of the community characteristics and resources-medical care costs relationships in the metropolitan areas potentially offers guidance in individual plan and national policy development.^ The research considers 145 factors measuring community milieu (demographic, social, educational, economic, illness level, prices of goods and services other than medical care, hospital supply, physicians resources and techological factors). Through bivariate correlation analysis, the number of variables was reduced to a set of 1 to 4 variables for each cost equation. Two approaches were identified to track inflation in the health care industry. One approach measures costs of production which accounts for price and volume increases. The other approach measures price increases. One general and four specific measures were developed to represent each of the major approaches. The general measure considers the increase on medical care prices as a whole and the specific measures deal with hospital costs and physician's fees. The relationships among changes in community characteristics and resources and health care inflation were analyzed using bivariate correlation and regression analysis methods. It has been concluded that changes in community characteristics and resources are predictive of hospital costs and physician's fees inflation, but are not predictive of increases in medical care prices. These findings provide guidance in the formulation of public policy which could alter the trend of medical care inflation and in the allocation of limited Federal funds.^

INFECTION: ITS ECOLOGICAL DETERMINANTS AMONG CHILDREN IN NORTHERN CHILE

In developing countries, infection and malnutrition, and their interaction effects, account for the majority of childhood deaths and chronic deficits in growth and development. To promote child health, the causal determinants of infection and malnutrition and cost-effective interventions must be identified. To this end, medical examinations of 988 children (age two weeks to 14 years) living at three altitudes (coastal < 300m; sierra (TURN) 3,000m; and altiplano > 4,000m) in Chile's northermost Department of Arica revealed that 393 (40%) of the youngsters harbored one or more infections. When sorted by region and ethnicity, indigenous children of the highlands had infection rates 50% higher than children of Spanish descent living near the coast.^ An ecological model was developed and used to examine the causal path of infection and measure the effect of single and combined environmental variables. Family variables significantly linked to child health included maternal health, age and education. Significant child determinants of infection included the child's nutrient intake and medical history. When compared to children well and free of disease, infected youngsters reported a higher incidence of recent illness and a lower intake of basic foodstuffs. Traditional measures of child health, e.g. birth condition, weaning history, maternal fertility, and family wealth, did not differentiate between well and infected children.^ When height, weight, arm circumference, and subcapular skinfold measurements were compared, infected children, regardless of age, had smaller arm circumferences, the statistical difference being the greatest for males, age nine to eleven. Height and weight, the traditional growth indices, did not differentiate between well and infected groups.^ Infection is not determined by a single environmental factor or even a series of variables. Child health is ecological in nature and cannot be improved independent of changes in the environment that surrounds the child. To focus on selected child health needs, such as feeding programs or immunization campaigns, without simultaneously attending to the environment from which the needs arose is an inappropriate use of time, personnel, and money. ^

Policy analysis of iron micronutrient programs at USAID: The FANTA program in East Africa and the micronutrient initiative in Bihar region of India, using comparative cost effective and cost benefit analysis

It is the aim of this paper to examine iron supplementation programs which receive funding from United States Agency for International Development (USAID) but approach combating iron deficiency anemia in two vastly different ways. A brief literature review and background information on iron deficiencies and the differences between supplementation programs and micronutrient fortification were reviewed. Two non-governmental organizations (NGO's) were examined for this paper: the Food and Nutrition Technical Assistance II (FANTA) and the MicroNutrient Initiative. The FANTA program included an educational component to their supplementation program while the MicroNutrient Initiative solely used supplementation of micronutrients to their population. Methods used were cost-benefit analysis and cost-effectiveness analysis to determine the overall effectiveness of each program in reducing iron deficiency anemia in each population, if the added costs of the incentives in the FANTA program changed the cost-effectiveness of the program compared to the MicroNutrient Initiative program and to determine which program imparted the greatest benefit to each population by reducing the disease burden in Disability Adjusted Life Years (DALY). Results showed that the unit cost of the FANTA program per person was higher than the MicroNutrient Initiative program due to the educational component. The FANTA program reduced iron deficiency anemia less overall but cost less for each percentage point of anemia decreased in their respective populations. The MicroNutrient Initiative program had a better benefit cost ratio for the populations it served. The MicroNutrient Initiative's large scale program imparted many advantages by reducing unit cost per person and decreasing iron deficiency anemia. The FANTA program was more effective at decreasing iron deficiency anemia with less money: $5,660 per 1% decrease in iron deficiency anemia versus $18,450 per 1% decrease in iron deficiency anemia for the MicroNutrient Initiative program. ^ In conclusion, economic analysis cannot measure all of the benefits associated with programs that contain an educational component or large scale supplementation. More information needs to be gathered by NGOs and reported to USAID, such as detailed prevalence rates of iron deficiency anemia among the populations served. Further research is needed to determine the effects an educational supplementation program has on compliance rates of participants and motivation to participate in supplementation programs whose aim is to decrease iron deficiency anemia in a targeted population.^

Assessing and applying evidence-based interventions at the community level in India as a model policy to reduce neonatal mortality rates in Nigeria

Background. The United Nations' Millennium Development Goal (MDG) 4 aims for a two-thirds reduction in death rates for children under the age of five by 2015. The greatest risk of death is in the first week of life, yet most of these deaths can be prevented by such simple interventions as improved hygiene, exclusive breastfeeding, and thermal care. The percentage of deaths in Nigeria that occur in the first month of life make up 28% of all deaths under five years, a statistic that has remained unchanged despite various child health policies. This paper will address the challenges of reducing the neonatal mortality rate in Nigeria by examining the literature regarding efficacy of home-based, newborn care interventions and policies that have been implemented successfully in India. ^ Methods. I compared similarities and differences between India and Nigeria using qualitative descriptions and available quantitative data of various health indicators. The analysis included identifying policy-related factors and community approaches contributing to India's newborn survival rates. Databases and reference lists of articles were searched for randomized controlled trials of community health worker interventions shown to reduce neonatal mortality rates. ^ Results. While it appears that Nigeria spends more money than India on health per capita ($136 vs. $132, respectively) and as percent GDP (5.8% vs. 4.2%, respectively), it still lags behind India in its neonatal, infant, and under five mortality rates (40 vs. 32 deaths/1000 live births, 88 vs. 48 deaths/1000 live births, 143 vs. 63 deaths/1000 live births, respectively). Both countries have comparably low numbers of healthcare providers. Unlike their counterparts in Nigeria, Indian community health workers receive training on how to deliver postnatal care in the home setting and are monetarily compensated. Gender-related power differences still play a role in the societal structure of both countries. A search of randomized controlled trials of home-based newborn care strategies yielded three relevant articles. Community health workers trained to educate mothers and provide a preventive package of interventions involving clean cord care, thermal care, breastfeeding promotion, and danger sign recognition during multiple postnatal visits in rural India, Bangladesh, and Pakistan reduced neonatal mortality rates by 54%, 34%, and 15–20%, respectively. ^ Conclusion. Access to advanced technology is not necessary to reduce neonatal mortality rates in resource-limited countries. To address the urgency of neonatal mortality, countries with weak health systems need to start at the community level and invest in cost-effective, evidence-based newborn care interventions that utilize available human resources. While more randomized controlled studies are urgently needed, the current available evidence of models of postnatal care provision demonstrates that home-based care and health education provided by community health workers can reduce neonatal mortality rates in the immediate future.^

The cost of insuring the uninsured in the U.S.

Objectives: This study included two overarching objectives. Through a systematic review of the literature published between 1990 and 2012, the first objective aimed to assess whether insuring the uninsured would result in higher costs compared to insuring the currently insured. Studies that quantified the actual costs associated with insuring the uninsured in the U.S. were included. Based upon 2009 data from the Medical Expenditure Panel Survey (MEPS), the second objective aimed to assess and compare the self-reported health of populations with four different insurance statuses. The second part of this study involved a secondary data analysis of both currently insured and currently uninsured individuals who participated in the MEPS in 2009. The null hypothesis was that there were no differences across the four categories of health insurance status for self-reported health status and healthcare service use. The alternative hypothesis was that were differences across the four categories of health insurance status for self-reported health status and healthcare service use. Methods: For the systematic review, three databases were searched using search terms to identify studies that actually quantified the cost of insuring the uninsured. Thirteen studies were selected, discussed, and summarized in tables. For the secondary data analysis of MEPS data, this study compared four categories of health insurance status: (1) currently uninsured persons who will become eligible for Medicaid under the Patient Protection and Affordable Care Act (PPACA) healthcare reforms in 2014; (2) currently uninsured persons who will be required to buy private insurance through the PPACA health insurance exchanges in 2014; (3) persons currently insured under Medicaid or SCHIP; and (4) persons currently insured with private insurance. The four categories were compared on the basis of demographic information, health status information, and health conditions with relatively high prevalence. Chi-square tests were run to determine if there were differences between the four groups in regard to health insurance status and health status. With some exceptions, the two currently insured groups had worse self-reported health status compared to the two currently uninsured groups. Results: The thirteen studies that met the inclusion criteria for the systematic review included: (1) three cost studies from 1993, 1995, and 1997; (2) four cost studies from 2001, 2003, and 2004; (3) one study of disabilities and one study of immigrants; (4) two state specific studies of uninsured status; and (5) two current studies of healthcare reform. Of the thirteen studies reviewed, four directly addressed the study question about whether insuring the uninsured was more or less expensive than insuring the currently insured. All four of the studies provided support for the study finding that the cost of insuring the uninsured would generally not be higher than insuring those already insured. One study indicated that the cost of insuring the uninsured would be less expensive than insuring the population currently covered by Medicaid, but more expensive to insure than the populations of those covered by employer-sponsored insurance and non-group private insurance. While the nine other studies included in the systematic review discussed the costs associated with insuring the uninsured population, they did not directly compare the costs of insuring the uninsured population with the costs associated with insuring the currently insured population. For the MEPS secondary data analysis, the results of the chi-square tests indicated that there were differences in the distribution of disease status by health insurance status. As anticipated, with some exceptions, the uninsured reported lower rates of disease and healthcare service use. However, for the variable attention deficit disorder, the uninsured reported higher disease rates than the two insured groups. Additionally, for the variables high blood pressure, high cholesterol, and joint pain, the currently insured under Medicaid or SCHIP group reported a lower rate of disease than the two currently insured groups. This result may be due to the lower mean age of the currently insured under Medicaid or SCHIP group. Conclusion: Based on this study, with some exceptions, the costs for insuring the uninsured should not exceed healthcare-related costs for insuring the currently uninsured. The results of the systematic review indicated that the U.S. is already paying some of the costs associated with insuring the uninsured. PPACA will expand health insurance coverage to millions of Americans who are currently uninsured, as the individual mandate and insurance market reforms will require. Because many of the currently uninsured are relatively healthy young persons, the costs associated with expanding insurance coverage to the uninsured are anticipated to be relatively modest. However, for the purposes of construing these results, it is important to note that once individuals obtain insurance, it is anticipated that they will use more healthcare services, which will increase costs. (Abstract shortened by UMI.)^