Coherent forecasting of multiple-decrement life tables: a test using Japanese cause of death data

Planners in public and private institutions would like coherent forecasts of the components of age-specic mortality, such as causes of death. This has been di cult toachieve because the relative values of the forecast components often fail to behave ina way that is coherent with historical experience. In addition, when the group forecasts are combined the result is often incompatible with an all-groups forecast. It hasbeen shown that cause-specic mortality forecasts are pessimistic when compared withall-cause forecasts (Wilmoth, 1995). This paper abandons the conventional approachof using log mortality rates and forecasts the density of deaths in the life table. Sincethese values obey a unit sum constraint for both conventional single-decrement life tables (only one absorbing state) and multiple-decrement tables (more than one absorbingstate), they are intrinsically relative rather than absolute values across decrements aswell as ages. Using the methods of Compositional Data Analysis pioneered by Aitchison(1986), death densities are transformed into the real space so that the full range of multivariate statistics can be applied, then back-transformed to positive values so that theunit sum constraint is honoured. The structure of the best-known, single-decrementmortality-rate forecasting model, devised by Lee and Carter (1992), is expressed incompositional form and the results from the two models are compared. The compositional model is extended to a multiple-decrement form and used to forecast mortalityby cause of death for Japan

A unified approach for representing rows and columns in contingency tables

By using suitable parameters, we present a uni¯ed aproach for describing four methods for representing categorical data in a contingency table. These methods include:correspondence analysis (CA), the alternative approach using Hellinger distance (HD),the log-ratio (LR) alternative, which is appropriate for compositional data, and theso-called non-symmetrical correspondence analysis (NSCA). We then make an appropriate comparison among these four methods and some illustrative examples are given.Some approaches based on cumulative frequencies are also linked and studied usingmatrices.Key words: Correspondence analysis, Hellinger distance, Non-symmetrical correspondence analysis, log-ratio analysis, Taguchi inertia

Intrinsic test of independence in contingency tables

A condition needed for testing nested hypotheses from a Bayesianviewpoint is that the prior for the alternative model concentratesmass around the small, or null, model. For testing independencein contingency tables, the intrinsic priors satisfy this requirement.Further, the degree of concentration of the priors is controlled bya discrete parameter m, the training sample size, which plays animportant role in the resulting answer regardless of the samplesize.In this paper we study robustness of the tests of independencein contingency tables with respect to the intrinsic priors withdifferent degree of concentration around the null, and comparewith other “robust” results by Good and Crook. Consistency ofthe intrinsic Bayesian tests is established.We also discuss conditioning issues and sampling schemes,and argue that conditioning should be on either one margin orthe table total, but not on both margins.Examples using real are simulated data are given

Andalusian Health Repository: Promoting the scientific health output among professionals and providing citizens with quality health information

The Andalusian Public Health System (Sistema Sanitario Público de Andalucía -SSPA) Repository is the open environment where all the scientific output generated by the SSPA professionals, resulting from their medical care, research and administrative activities, is comprehensively collected and managed. This repository possesses special features which determined its development: the SSPA organization and its purpose as a health institution, the specific sets of documents that it generates and the stakeholders involved in it. The repository uses DSpace 1.6.2, to which several changes were implemented in order to achieve the SSPA initial goals and requirements. The main changes were: the addition of specific qualifiers to the Metadata Dublin Core scheme, the modification of the submission form, the integration of the MeSH Thesaurus as controlled vocabulary and the optimization of the advanced search tool. Another key point during the setting up of the repository was the initial batch ingest of the documents.

Oeuvres de La Rochefoucauld. [Mémoires]. Tome 1 / nouv. éd. revue sur les plus anciennes impressions et augm. de morceaux inédits, de variantes, de notices, de notes, de tables particulières pour les "Maximes" et pour les "Mémoires", d'un lexique des mots et locutions remarquables, d'un portr., de fac-sim., etc. par MM. D. L. Gilbert et J. Gourdault

Collection : Les grands écrivains de la France

Oeuvres de La Rochefoucauld. [Mémoires]. Tome 3 / Partie 1 / nouv. éd. revue sur les plus anciennes impressions et augm. de morceaux inédits, de variantes, de notices, de notes, de tables particulières pour les "Maximes" et pour les "Mémoires", d'un lexique des mots et locutions remarquables, d'un portr., de fac-sim., etc. par MM. D. L. Gilbert et J. Gourdault

Collection : Les grands écrivains de la France

Oeuvres de La Rochefoucauld. [Mémoires]. Tome 3 / Partie 2 / nouv. éd. revue sur les plus anciennes impressions et augm. de morceaux inédits, de variantes, de notices, de notes, de tables particulières pour les "Maximes" et pour les "Mémoires", d'un lexique des mots et locutions remarquables, d'un portr., de fac-sim., etc. par MM. D. L. Gilbert et J. Gourdault

Collection : Les grands écrivains de la France

Oeuvres de La Rochefoucauld. [Mémoires]. Tome 2 / nouv. éd. revue sur les plus anciennes impressions et augm. de morceaux inédits, de variantes, de notices, de notes, de tables particulières pour les "Maximes" et pour les "Mémoires", d'un lexique des mots et locutions remarquables, d'un portr., de fac-sim., etc. par MM. D. L. Gilbert et J. Gourdault

Collection : Les grands écrivains de la France

Economic and environmental effects of the CO2 taxation: an input-output analysis for Spain

CO2 emissions induced by human activities are the major cause of climate change; hence, strong environmental policy that limits the growing dependence on fossil fuel is indispensable. Tradable permits and environmental taxes are the usual tools used in CO2 reduction strategies. Such economic tools provide incentives to polluting industries to reduce their emissions through market signals. The aim of this work is to investigate the direct and indirect effects of an environmental tax on Spanish products and services. We apply an environmentally extended input-output (EIO) model to identify CO2 emission intensities of products and services and, accordingly, we estimate the tax proportional to these intensities. The short-term price effects are analyzed using an input-output price model. The effect of tax introduction on consumption prices and its influence on consumers’ welfare are determined. We also quantify the environmental impacts of such taxation in terms of the reduction in CO2 emissions. The results, based on the Spanish economy for the year 2007, show that sectors with relatively poor environmental profile are subjected to high environmental tax rates. And consequently, applying a CO2 tax on these sectors, increases production prices and induces a slight increase in consumer price index and a decrease in private welfare. The revenue from the tax could be used to counter balance the negative effects on social welfare and also to stimulate the increase of renewable energy shares in the most impacting sectors. Finally, our analysis highlights that the environmental and economic goals cannot be met at the same time with the environmental taxation and this shows the necessity of finding other (complementary or alternative) measures to ensure both the economic and ecological efficiencies. Keywords: CO2 emissions; environmental tax; input-output model, effects of environmental taxation.