Ensemble yield simulations: crop and climate uncertainties, sensitivity to temperature and genotypic adaptation to climate change

Estimates of the response of crops to climate change rarely quantify the uncertainty inherent in the simulation of both climate and crops. We present a crop simulation ensemble for a location in India, perturbing the response of both crop and climate under both baseline (12 720 simulations) and doubled-CO2 (171720 simulations) climates. Some simulations used parameter values representing genotypic adaptation to mean temperature change. Firstly, observed and simulated yields in the baseline climate were compared. Secondly, the response of yield to changes in mean temperature was examined and compared to that found in the literature. No consistent response to temperature change was found across studies. Thirdly, the relative contribution of uncertainty in crop and climate simulation to the total uncertainty in projected yield changes was examined. In simulations without genotypic adaptation, most of the uncertainty came from the climate model parameters. Comparison with the simulations with genotypic adaptation and with a previous study suggested that the relatively low crop parameter uncertainty derives from the observational constraints on the crop parameters used in this study. Fourthly, the simulations were used, together with an observed dataset and a simple analysis of crop cardinal temperatures and thermal time, to estimate the potential for adaptation using existing cultivars. The results suggest that the germplasm for complete adaptation of groundnut cultivation in western India to a doubled-CO2 environment may not exist. In conjunction with analyses of germplasm and local management

Use of a novel Hill-climbing genetic algorithm in protein folding simulations

We have developed a novel Hill-climbing genetic algorithm (GA) for simulation of protein folding. The program (written in C) builds a set of Cartesian points to represent an unfolded polypeptide's backbone. The dihedral angles determining the chain's configuration are stored in an array of chromosome structures that is copied and then mutated. The fitness of the mutated chain's configuration is determined by its radius of gyration. A four-helix bundle was used to optimise simulation conditions, and the program was compared with other, larger, genetic algorithms on a variety of structures. The program ran 50% faster than other GA programs. Overall, tests on 100 non-redundant structures gave comparable results to other genetic algorithms, with the Hill-climbing program running from between 20 and 50% faster. Examples including crambin, cytochrome c, cytochrome B and hemerythrin gave good secondary structure fits with overall alpha carbon atom rms deviations of between 5 and 5.6 Angstrom with an optimised hydrophobic term in the fitness function. (C) 2003 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Function of the hydration layer around an antifreeze protein revealed by atomistic molecular dynamics simulations

Atomistic molecular dynamics simulations are used to investigate the mechanism by which the antifreeze protein from the spruce budworm, Choristoneura fumiferana, binds to ice. Comparison of structural and dynamic properties of the water around the three faces of the triangular prism-shaped protein in aqueous solution reveals that at low temperature the water structure is ordered and the dynamics slowed down around the ice-binding face of the protein, with a disordering effect observed around the other two faces. These results suggest a dual role for the solvation water around the protein. The preconfigured solvation shell around the ice-binding face is involved in the initial recognition and binding of the antifreeze protein to ice by lowering the barrier for binding and consolidation of the protein:ice interaction surface. Thus, the antifreeze protein can bind to the molecularly rough ice surface by becoming actively involved in the formation of its own binding site. Also, the disruption of water structure around the rest of the protein helps prevent the adsorbed protein becoming covered by further ice growth.

Building cluster and shading in urban canyon for hot dry climate Part 2: Shading simulations

Under low latitude conditions, minimisation of solar irradiance within the urban environment may often be an important criterion in urban design. This can be achieved when the obstruction angle is large (high H/W ratio, H = height, W = width). Solar access to streets can always be decreased by increasing H/W to larger values. It is shown in this paper that the street canyon orientation (and not only the H/W ratio) has a considerable effect on solar shading and urban microclimate. The paper demonstrates through a series of shading simulation and temperature measurements that a number of useful relationships can be developed between the geometry and the microclimate of urban street canyons. These relationships are potentially helpful to assist in the formulation of urban design guidelines governing street dimensions and orientations for use by urban designers.

Modelling oil absorption during post-frying cooling - II: solution of the mathematical model, model testing and simulations

The mathematical models that describe the immersion-frying period and the post-frying cooling period of an infinite slab or an infinite cylinder were solved and tested. Results were successfully compared with those found in the literature or obtained experimentally, and were discussed in terms of the hypotheses and simplifications made. The models were used as the basis of a sensitivity analysis. Simulations showed that a decrease in slab thickness and core heat capacity resulted in faster crust development. On the other hand, an increase in oil temperature and boiling heat transfer coefficient between the oil and the surface of the food accelerated crust formation. The model for oil absorption during cooling was analysed using the tested post-frying cooling equation to determine the moment in which a positive pressure driving force, allowing oil suction within the pore, originated. It was found that as crust layer thickness, pore radius and ambient temperature decreased so did the time needed to start the absorption. On the other hand, as the effective convective heat transfer coefficient between the air and the surface of the slab increased the required cooling time decreased. In addition, it was found that the time needed to allow oil absorption during cooling was extremely sensitive to pore radius, indicating the importance of an accurate pore size determination in future studies.

The eMinerals project: developing the concept of the virtual organisation to support collaborative work on molecular-scale environmental simulations

The eMinerals project has established an integrated compute and data minigrid infrastructure together with a set of collaborative tools,. The infrastructure is designed to support molecular simulation scientists working together as a virtual organisation aiming to understand a number of strategic processes in environmental science. The eMinerals virtual organisation is now working towards applying this infrastructure to tackle a new generation of scientific problems. This paper describes the achievements of the eMinerals virtual organisation to date, and describes ongoing applications of the virtual organisation infrastructure.

MPJ express meets gadget: towards a java code for cosmological simulations

Gadget-2 is a massively parallel structure formation code for cosmological simulations. In this paper, we present a Java version of Gadget-2. We evaluated the performance of the Java version by running colliding galaxies simulation and found that it can achieve around 70% of C Gadget-2's performance.

Collaborative grid infrastructure for molecular simulations: The eMinerals minigrid as a prototype integrated computer and data grid

This paper describes a prototype grid infrastructure, called the eMinerals minigrid, for molecular simulation scientists. which is based on an integration of shared compute and data resources. We describe the key components, namely the use of Condor pools, Linux/Unix clusters with PBS and IBM's LoadLeveller job handling tools, the use of Globus for security handling, the use of Condor-G tools for wrapping globus job submit commands, Condor's DAGman tool for handling workflow, the Storage Resource Broker for handling data, and the CCLRC dataportal and associated tools for both archiving data with metadata and making data available to other workers.

U.K. HiGEM: Simulations of desert dust and biomass burning aerosols with a high-resolution atmospheric GCM

The atmospheric component of the United Kingdom’s new High-resolution Global Environmental Model (HiGEM) has been run with interactive aerosol schemes that include biomass burning and mineral dust. Dust emission, transport, and deposition are parameterized within the model using six particle size divisions, which are treated independently. The biomass is modeled in three nonindependent modes, and emissions are prescribed from an external dataset. The model is shown to produce realistic horizontal and vertical distributions of these aerosols for each season when compared with available satellite- and ground-based observations and with other models. Combined aerosol optical depths off the coast of North Africa exceed 0.5 both in boreal winter, when biomass is the main contributor, and also in summer, when the dust dominates. The model is capable of resolving smaller-scale features, such as dust storms emanating from the Bode´ le´ and Saharan regions of North Africa and the wintertime Bode´ le´ low-level jet. This is illustrated by February and July case studies, in which the diurnal cycles of model variables in relation to dust emission and transport are examined. The top-of-atmosphere annual mean radiative forcing of the dust is calculated and found to be globally quite small but locally very large, exceeding 20 W m22 over the Sahara, where inclusion of dust aerosol is shown to improve the model radiative balance. This work extends previous aerosol studies by combining complexity with increased global resolution and represents a step toward the next generation of models to investigate aerosol–climate interactions. 1. Introduction Accurate modeling of mineral dust is known to be important because of its radiative impact in both numerical weather prediction models (Milton et al. 2008; Haywood et

Molecular dynamics simulations of proteins: can the explicit water model be varied?

In molecular mechanics simulations of biological systems, the solvation water is typically represented by a default water model which is an integral part of the force field. Indeed, protein nonbonding parameters are chosen in order to obtain a balance between water-water and protein-water interactions and hence a reliable description of protein solvation. However, less attention has been paid to the question of whether the water model provides a reliable description of the water properties under the chosen simulation conditions, for which more accurate water models often exist. Here we consider the case of the CHARMM protein force field, which was parametrized for use with a modified TIP3P model. Using quantum mechanical and molecular mechanical calculations, we investigate whether the CHARMM force field can be used with other water models: TIP4P and TIP5P. Solvation properties of N-methylacetamide (NMA), other small solute molecules, and a small protein are examined. The results indicate differences in binding energies and minimum energy geometries, especially for TIP5P, but the overall description of solvation is found to be similar for all models tested. The results provide an indication that molecular mechanics simulations with the CHARMM force field can be performed with water models other than TIP3P, thus enabling an improved description of the solvent water properties.

Ferric and ferrous iron in nitroso-myoglobin: computer simulations of stable and metastable states and their infrared spectra

The binding of NO to iron is involved in the biological function of many heme proteins. Contrary to ligands like CO and O-2, which only bind to ferrous (Fe-II) iron, NO binds to both ferrous and ferric (Fe-II) iron. In a particular protein, the natural oxidation state can therefore be expected to be tailored to the required function. Herein, we present an ob initio potential-energy surface for ferric iron interacting with NO. This potential-energy surface exhibits three minima corresponding to eta'-NO coordination (the global minimum), eta(1)-ON coordination and eta(2) coordination. This contrasts with the potential-energy surface for Fe-II-NO, which ex- hibits only two minima (the eta(2) coordination mode for Fe-II is a transition state, not a minimum). In addition, the binding energies of NO are substantially larger for Fe-III than for Fe-II. We have performed molecular dynamics simulations for NO bound to ferric myoglobin (Mb(III)) and compare these with results obtained for Mb(II). Over the duration of our simulations (1.5 ns), all three binding modes are found to be stable at 200 K and transiently stable at 300 K, with eventual transformation to the eta(1)-NO global-minimum conformation. We discuss the implication of these results related to studies of rebinding processes in myoglobin.

Computer simulations of structures, energetics and dynamics of myoglobin center dot center dot center dot ligand complexes

Myoglobin has been studied in considerable detail using different experimental and computational techniques over the past decades. Recent developments in time-resolved spectroscopy have provided experimental data amenable to detailed atomistic simulations. The main theme of the present review are results on the structures, energetics and dynamics of ligands ( CO, NO) interacting with myoglobin from computer simulations. Modern computational methods including free energy simulations, mixed quantum mechanics/molecular mechanics simulations, and reactive molecular dynamics simulations provide insight into the dynamics of ligand dynamics in confined spaces complementary to experiment. Application of these methods to calculate and understand experimental observations for myoglobin interacting with CO and NO are presented and discussed.

CO migration in native and mutant myoglobin: atomistic simulations for the understanding of protein function

Molecular dynamics simulations of the events after the photodissociation of CO in the myoglobin mutant L29F in which leucine is replaced by phenylalanine are reported. Using both classical and mixed quantum-classical molecular dynamics calculations, we observed the rapid motion of CO away from the distal heme pocket to other regions of the protein, in agreement with recent experimental results. The experimentally observed and calculated infrared spectra of CO after dissociation are also in good agreement. We compared the results with data from simulations of WT myoglobin. As the time resolution of experimental techniques is increased, theoretical methods and models can be validated at the atomic scale by direct comparison with experiment.