Variability of sif and cod of stochastic structural systems

Stochastic structural systems having a stochastic distribution of material properties and stochastic external loadings in space are analysed when a crack of deterministic size is present. The material properties and external loadings are considered to constitute independent, two-dimensional, univariate, real, homogeneous stochastic fields. The stochastic fields are characterized by their means, variances, autocorrelation functions or the equivalent power spectral density functions, and scale fluctuations. The Young's modulus and Poisson's ratio are treated to be stochastic quantities. The external loading is treated to be a stochastic field in space. The energy release rate is derived using the method of virtual crack extension. The deterministic relationship is derived to represent the sensitivities of energy release rate with respect to both virtual crack extension and real system parameter fluctuations. Taylor series expansion is used and truncation is made to the first order. This leads to the determination of second-order properties of the output quantities to the first order. Using the linear perturbations about the mean values of the output quantities, the statistical information about the energy release rates, SIF and crack opening displacements are obtained. Both plane stress and plane strain cases are considered. The general expressions for the SIF in all the three fracture modes are derived and a more detailed analysis is conducted for a mode I situation. A numerical example is given.

Interannual variations of Indian summer monsoon in a GCM: External conditions versus internal feedbacks

The potential predictability of the Indian summer monsoon due to slowly varying sea surface temperature (SST) forcing is examined. Factors responsible for limiting the predictability are also investigated. Three multiyear simulations with the R30 version of the Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory's climate model are carried out for this purpose, The mean monsoon simulated by this model is realistic including the mean summer precipitation over the Indian continent. The interannual variability of the large-scale component of the monsoon such as the "monsoon shear index" and its teleconnection with Pacific SST is well simulated by the model in a 15-yr integration with observed SST as boundary condition. On regional scales, the skill in simulating the interannual variability of precipitation over the Indian continent by the model is rather modest and its simultaneous correlation with eastern Pacific SST is negative but poor as observed. The poor predictability of precipitation over the Indian region in the model is related to the fact that contribution to the interannual variability over this region due to slow SST variations [El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) related] is comparable to those due to regional-scale fluctuations unrelated to ENSO SST. The physical mechanism through which ENSO SST tend to produce reduction in precipitation over the Indian continent is also elucidated. A measure of internal variability of the model summer monsoon is obtained from a 20-yr integration of the same model with fixed annual cycle SST as boundary conditions but with predicted soil moisture and snow cover. A comparison of summer monsoon indexes between this run and the observed SST run shows that the internal oscillations can account for a large fraction of the simulated monsoon variability. The regional-scale oscillations in the observed SST run seems to arise from these internal oscillations. It is discovered that most of the interannual internal variability is due to an internal quasi-biennial oscillation (QBO) of the model atmosphere. Such a QBO is also found in the author's third 18-yr simulation in which fixed annual cycle of SST as well as soil moisture and snow cover are prescribed. This shows that the model QBO is not due to land-surface-atmosphere interaction. It is proposed that the model QBO arises due to an interaction between nonlinear intraseasonal oscillations and the annual cycle. Spatial structure of the QBO and its role in limiting the predictability of the Indian summer monsoon is discussed.

Subclinical autonomic neuropathy in alcoholics: Decreased heart rate variability

Cardiac autonomic neuropathy is known to occur in alcoholics but the extent of its subclinical form is not usually recognized, Heart Rate Variability (HRV) analysis can detect subclinical autonomic neuropathy. In this study the HRV parameters were compared in 20 neurologically asymptomatic alcoholics, 20 age-matched normals and 16 depressives. All were males, ECG was recorded in a quiet room for four minutes in supine position. Time and Frequency domain parameters of HRV were computed by a researcher blind to clinical details. Alcoholics had significantly smaller Coefficient of Variation of R-R intervals (CVR-R) on time domain analysis and smaller HF band (0.15-0.5 Hz) power on spectral analysis. The decreased Heart Rate Variability indicates cardiac autonomic dysfunction.

Geochemistry of water and ground water in the Nhecolandia, Pantanal of Mato Grosso, Brazil: Variability and associated processes

A distinctive feature of the Nhecolandia, a sub-region of the Pantanal wetland in Brazil, is the presence of both saline and freshwater lakes. Saline lakes used to be attributed to a past and phase during the Pleistocene. However, recent studies have shown that saline and fresh water lakes are linked by a continuous water table, indicating that saline water could come from a contemporary concentration process. This concentration process could also be responsible for the large chemical variability of the waters observed in the area. A regional water sampling has been conducted in surface and sub-surface water and the water table, and the results of the geochemical and statistical analysis are presented. Based on sodium contents, the concentration shows a 1: 4443 ratio. All the samples belong to the same chemical family and evolve in a sodic alkaline manner. Calcite or magnesian calcite precipitates very early in the process of concentration, probably followed by the precipitation of magnesian silicates. The most concentrated solutions remain under-saturated with respect to the sodium carbonate salt, even if this equilibrium is likely reached around the saline lakes. Apparently, significant amounts of sulfate and chloride are lost simultaneously from the solutions, and this cannot be explained solely by evaporative concentration. This could be attributed to the sorption on reduced minerals in a green sub-surface horizon in the "cordilhieira" areas. In the saline lakes, low potassium, phosphate, magnesium, and sulfate are attributed to algal blooms. Under the influence of evaporation, the concentration of solutions and associated chemical precipitations are identified as the main factors responsible for the geochemical variability in this environment (about 92 % of the variance). Therefore, the saline lakes of Nhecolandia have to be managed as landscape units in equilibrium with the present water flows and not inherited from a past and phase. In order to elaborate hydrochemical tracers for a quantitative estimation of water flows, three points have to be investigated more precisely: (1) the quantification of magnesium involved in the Mg-calcite precipitation; (2) the identification of the precise stoichiometry of the Mg-silicate; and (3) the verification of the loss of chloride and sulfate by sorption onto labile iron minerals.

Structural Variability in the Monofluoroethynylbenzenes Mediated through Interactions Involving ``Organic'' Fluorine

Competition among weak intermolecular interactions can lead to polymorphism, the appearance of various crystalline forms of a substance with comparable cohesive energies. The crystal structures of 2-fluorophenylacetylene (2FPA) and 3-fluorophenylacetylene (3FPA), both of which are liquids at ambient conditions, have been determined by in situ cryocrystallization. Both compounds exhibit dimorphs, with one of the forms observed in common, P2(1), Z = 2 and the other form being Pna2(1), Z = 4 for 2FPA and P2(1)/c, Z = 12 for 3FPA. Variations in the crystal structures of the dimorphs of each of these compounds arise from subtle differences in the way in which weak intermolecular interactions such as C-H center dot center dot center dot pi and C-H center dot center dot center dot F are manifested. The interactions involving ``organic'' fluorine, are entirely different from those in the known structure of 4-fluorophenylacetylene (4FPA), space group P2(1)/c, Z = 4. The commonalities and differences in these polymorphs of 2FPA and 3FPA have been analyzed in terms of supramolecular synthons and extended long-range synthon aufbau module (LSAM) patterns. These structures are compared with the three polymorphs of phenylacetylene, in terms of the T-shaped C-H center dot center dot center dot pi interaction, a feature common to all these structures.

A comparative study of ordinary kriging and support vector machine models for the spatial variability of rock depth in Bangalore

In this paper, reduced level of rock at Bangalore, India is arrived from the 652 boreholes data in the area covering 220 sq.km. In the context of prediction of reduced level of rock in the subsurface of Bangalore and to study the spatial variability of the rock depth, ordinary kriging and Support Vector Machine (SVM) models have been developed. In ordinary kriging, the knowledge of the semivariogram of the reduced level of rock from 652 points in Bangalore is used to predict the reduced level of rock at any point in the subsurface of Bangalore, where field measurements are not available. A cross validation (Q1 and Q2) analysis is also done for the developed ordinary kriging model. The SVM is a novel type of learning machine based on statistical learning theory, uses regression technique by introducing e-insensitive loss function has been used to predict the reduced level of rock from a large set of data. A comparison between ordinary kriging and SVM model demonstrates that the SVM is superior to ordinary kriging in predicting rock depth.

Mechanisms of summer intraseasonal sea surface temperature oscillations in the Bay of Bengal

Intraseasonal variations (ISV) of sea surface temperature (SST) in the Bay of Bengal (BoB) is highest in its northwestern part. An Indian Ocean model forced by QuikSCAT winds and climatological river discharge (QR run) reproduces ISV of SST, albeit with weaker magnitude. Air-sea fluxes, in the presence of a shallow mixed layer, efficiently effect intraseasonal SST fluctuations. Warming during intraseasonal events is smaller (<1°C) for June - July period and larger (1.5° to 2°C) during September, the latter due to a thinner mixed layer. To examine the effect of salinity on ISV, the model was run by artificially increasing the salinity (NORR run) and by decreasing it (MAHA10 run). In NORR, both rainfall and river discharge were switched off and in MAHA10 the discharge by river Mahanadi was increased tenfold. The spatial pattern of ISV as well as its periodicity was similar in QR, NORR and MAHA10. The ISV was stronger in NORR and weaker in MAHA10, compared to QR. In NORR, both intraseasonal warming and cooling were higher than in QR, the former due to reduced air-sea heat loss as the mean SST was lower, and the latter due to enhanced subsurface processes resulting from weaker stratification. In MAHA10, both warming and cooling were lower than in QR, the former due to higher air-sea heat loss owing to higher mean SST, and the latter due to weak subsurface processes resulting from stronger stratification. These model experiments suggest that salinity effects are crucial in determining amplitudes of intraseasonal SST variations in the BoB.

Retention Time Variability as a Mechanism for Animal Mediated Long-Distance Dispersal

Long-distance dispersal (LDD) events, although rare for most plant species, can strongly influence population and community dynamics. Animals function as a key biotic vector of seeds and thus, a mechanistic and quantitative understanding of how individual animal behaviors scale to dispersal patterns at different spatial scales is a question of critical importance from both basic and applied perspectives. Using a diffusion-theory based analytical approach for a wide range of animal movement and seed transportation patterns, we show that the scale (a measure of local dispersal) of the seed dispersal kernel increases with the organisms' rate of movement and mean seed retention time. We reveal that variations in seed retention time is a key determinant of various measures of LDD such as kurtosis (or shape) of the kernel, thinkness of tails and the absolute number of seeds falling beyond a threshold distance. Using empirical data sets of frugivores, we illustrate the importance of variability in retention times for predicting the key disperser species that influence LDD. Our study makes testable predictions linking animal movement behaviors and gut retention times to dispersal patterns and, more generally, highlights the potential importance of animal behavioral variability for the LDD of seeds.

Multi-scale interactions and predictability of the Indian summer monsoon

Following the seminal work of Charney and Shukla (198 1), the tropical climate is recognised to be more predictable than extra tropical climate as it is largely forced by 'external' slowly varying forcing and less sensitive to initial conditions. However, the Indian summer monsoon is an exception within the tropics where 'internal' low frequency (LF) oscillations seem to make significant contribution to its interannual variability (IAV) and makes it sensitive to initial conditions. Quantitative estimate of contribution of 'internal' dynamics to IAV of Indian monsoon is made using long experiments with an atmospheric general circulation model (AGCM) and through analysis of long daily observations. Both AGCM experiments and observations indicate that more than 50% of IAV of the monsoon is contributed by 'internal' dynamics making the predictable signal (external component) burried in unpredictable noise (internal component) of comparable amplitude. Better understanding of the nature of the 'internal' LF variability is crucial for any improvement in predicition of seasonal mean monsoon. Nature of 'internal' LF variability of the monsoon and mechanism responsible for it are investigated and shown that vigorous monsoon intraseasonal oscillations (ISO's) with time scale between 10-70 days are primarily responsible for generating the 'internal' IAV. The monsoon ISO's do this through scale interactions with synoptic disturbances (1-7 day time scale) on one hand and the annual cycle on the other. The spatial structure of the monsoon ISO's is similar to that of the seasonal mean. It is shown that frequency of occurance of strong (weak) phases of the ISO is different in different seasons giving rise to stronger (weaker) than normal monsoon. Change in the large scale circulation during strong (weak) phases of the ISO make it favourable (inhibiting) for cyclogenesis and gives rise to space time clustering of synoptic activity. This process leads to enhanced (reduced) rainfall in seasons of higher frequency of occurence strong (weak) phases of monsoon ISO.

Northeast monsoon over India: variability and prediction

South peninsular India experiences a large portion of the annual rainfall during the northeast monsoon season (October to December). In this study, the facets of diurnal, intra-seasonal and inter-annual variability of the northeast monsoon rainfall (the NEMR) over India have been examined. The analysis of satellite derived hourly rainfall reveals that there are distinct features of diurnal variation over the land and oceans during the season. Over the land, rainfall peaks during the late afternoon/evening, while over the oceans an early morning peak is observed. The harmonic analysis of hourly data reveals that the amplitude and variance are the largest over south peninsular India. The NEMR also exhibits significant intra-seasonal variability on a 20-40 day time scale. Analysis also shows significant northward propagation of the maximum cloud zone from south of equator to the south peninsula during the season. The NEMR exhibits large inter-annual variability with the co-efficient of variation (CV) of 25%. The positive phases of ENSO and the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) are conducive for normal to above normal rainfall activity during the northeast monsoon. There are multi-decadal variations in the statistical relationship between ENSO and the NEMR. During the period 2001-2010 the statistical relationship between ENSO and the NEMR has significantly weakened. The analysis of seasonal rainfall hindcasts for the period 1960-2005 produced by the state-of-the-art coupled climate models, ENSEMBLES, reveals that the coupled models have very poor skill in predicting the inter-annual variability of the NEMR. This is mainly due to the inability of the ENSEMBLES models to simulate the positive relationship between ENSO and the NEMR correctly. Copyright (C) 2012 Royal Meteorological Society

Si isotope variability in Proterozoic cherts

We report Si-isotopic compositions of 75 sedimentologically and petrographically characterized chert samples with ages ranging from similar to 2600 to 750 Ma using multi-collector inductively coupled plasma mass spectrometry. delta Si-30 values of the cherts analyzed in this study show a similar to 7 parts per thousand range, from -4.29 to +2.85. This variability can be explained in part by (1) simple mixing of silica derived from continental (higher delta Si-30) and hydrothermal (lower delta Si-30) sources, (2) multiple mechanisms of silica precipitation and (3) Rayleigh-type fractionations within pore waters of individual basins. We observe similar to 3 parts per thousand variation in peritidal cherts from a single Neoproterozoic sedimentary basin (Spitsbergen). This variation can be explained by Rayleigh-type fractionation during precipitation from silica-saturated porewaters. In some samples, post-dissolution and reprecipitation of silica could have added to this effect. Our data also indicate that peritidal cherts are enriched in the heavier isotopes of Si whereas basinal cherts associated with banded iron formations (BIF) show lower delta Si-30. This difference could partly be due to Si being derived from hydrothermal sources in BIFs. We postulate that the difference in delta Si-30 between non-BIF and BIF cherts is consistent with the contrasting genesis of these deposits. Low delta Si-30 in BIF is consistent with laboratory experiments showing that silica adsorbed onto Fe-hydroxide particles preferentially incorporates lighter Si isotopes. Despite large intrabasinal variation and environmental differences, the data show a clear pattern of secular variation. Low delta Si-30 in Archean cherts is consistent with a dominantly hydrothermal source of silica to the oceans at that time. The monotonically increasing delta Si-30 from 3.8 to 1.5 Ga appears to reflect a general increase in continental versus hydrothermal sources of Si in seawater, as well as the preferential removal of lighter Si isotopes during silica precipitation in iron-associated cherts from silica-saturated seawater. The highest delta Si-30 values are observed in 1.5 Ga peritidal cherts; in part, these enriched values could reflect increasing sequestration of light silica during soil-forming processes, thus, delivering relatively heavy dissolved silica to the oceans from continental sources. The causes behind the reversal in trend towards lower delta Si-30 in cherts younger than 1.5 Ga old are less clear. Cherts deposited 1800-1900 Ma are especially low delta Si-30, a possible indication of transiently strong hydrothermal input at this time. (C) 2012 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.