Weather: Hurricane Threats

Severe tropical cyclones (called hurricanes in the North Atlantic and northeast Pacific) can cause loss of human lives and serious economic damage. In his Perspective, Bengtsson charts the current knowledge about how hurricanes form and whether long-term trends can be discerned in the past century or predicted for a future warmer planet. He also discusses the report by Goldenberg et al., who have analyzed hurricane activity in the North Atlantic and the Caribbean over much of the past century.

Hurricane-type vortices in a general circulation model

A very high resolution atmospheric general circulation model, T106-L19, has been used for the simulation of hurricanes in a multi-year numerical experiment. Individual storms as well as their geographical and seasonal distribution agree remarkably well with observations. In spite of the fact that only the thermal and dynamical structure of the storms have been used as criteria of their identification, practically all of them occur in areas where the sea surface temperature is higher or equal to 26 °C. There are considerable variations from year to year in the number of storms in spite of the fact that there are no interannual variations in the SST pattern. It is found that the number of storms in particular areas appear to depend on the intensity of the Hadley-Walker cell. The result is clearly resolution-dependant. At lower horizonal resolution, T42, for example, the intensity of the storms is significantly reduced and their overall structure is less realistic, including their vertical form and extent.

Simulation of hurricane-type vortices in a general circulation model

A study of intense hurricane-type vortices in the ECMWF operational model is reported. These vortices develop around day 4 in the forecast and occur in the tropical belt in areas and at times where intense tropical cyclones normally occur. The frequency resembles that observed over most tropical regions with a pronounced maximum in the western North Pacific. The life time of the vortices and their 3-dimensional structure agree in some fundamental way with observations although, because of the resolution, the systems are less intense than the observed ones. The general large-scale conditions for active and inactive cyclone periods are discussed. The model cyclones are sensitive to the sea-surface temperature and do not develop with sea surface temperatures lower than 28–29°C. The dynamical conditions favouring cyclone development are characterized by intense large-scale divergence in the upper troposphere. Cyclogenesis appears to take place when these conditions are found outside the equatorial zone and over oceans where the water is sufficiently warm.

Revisiting Swiss temperature trends 1959-2008

Temperature is a key variable for monitoring global climate change. Here we perform a trend analysis of Swiss temperatures from 1959 to 2008, using a new 2 × 2 km gridded data-set based on carefully homogenised ground observations from MeteoSwiss. The aim of this study is twofold: first, to discuss the spatial and altitudinal temperature trend characteristics in detail, and second, to quantify the contribution of changes in atmospheric circulation and local effects to these trends. The seasonal trends are all positive and mostly significant with an annual average warming rate of 0.35 °C/decade (∼1.6 times the northern hemispheric warming rate), ranging from 0.17 in autumn to 0.48 °C/decade in summer. Altitude-dependent trends are found in autumn and early winter where the trends are stronger at low altitudes (<800 m asl), and in spring where slightly stronger trends are found at altitudes close to the snow line. Part of the trends can be explained by changes in atmospheric circulation, but with substantial differences from season to season. In winter, circulation effects account for more than half the trends, while this contribution is much smaller in other seasons. After removing the effect of circulation, the trends still show seasonal variations with higher values in spring and summer. The circulation-corrected trends are closer to the values simulated by a set of ENSEMBLES regional climate models, with the models still tending towards a trend underestimation in spring and summer. Our results suggest that both circulation changes and more local effects are important to explain part of recent warming in spring, summer, and autumn. Snow-albedo feedback effects could be responsible for the stronger spring trends at altitudes close to the snow line, but the overall effect is small. In autumn, the observed decrease in fog frequency might be a key process in explaining the stronger temperature trends at low altitudes.

New perspectives on the synoptic and mesoscale structure of Hurricane Catarina

This work explores in detail synoptic and mesoscale features of Hurricane Catarina during its life cycle from a decaying baroclinic wave to a tropical depression that underwent tropical transition (TT) and finally to a Category 2 hurricane at landfall over Santa Catarina State coast, southern Brazil. This unique system caused 11 deaths mostly off the Brazilian coast and an estimated half billion dollars in damage in a matter of a few hours on 28 March 2004. Although the closest meteorological station available was tens of kilometres away from the eye, in situ meteorological measurements provided by a work-team sent to the area where the eye made landfall unequivocally reproduces the tropical signature with category 2 strength, adding to previous analysis where this data was not available. Further analyses are based mostly on remote sensing data available at the time of the event. A classic dipole blocking set synoptic conditions for Hurricane Catarina to develop, dynamically contributing to the low wind shear observed. On the other hand, on its westward transit, large scale subsidence limited its strength and vertical development. Catarina had relatively cool SST conditions, but this was mitigated by favourable air-sea fluxes leading to latent heat release-driven processes during the mature phase. The ocean`s dynamic topography also suggested the presence of nearby warm core rings which may have facilitated the transition and post-transition intensification. Since there were no records of such a system at least in the past 30 years and given that SSTs were generally below 26 degrees C and vertical shear was usually strong, despite all satellite data available, the system was initially classified as an extratropical cyclone. Here we hypothesise that this categorization was based oil inadequate regional scale model outputs which did not account for the importance of the latent heat fluxes over the ocean. Hurricane Catarina represents a dramatic event on weather systems in South America. It has attracted attention worldwide and poses questions as whether or not it is a symptom of global warming. (C) 2009 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Climate perspective on the large-scale circulation associated with the transition of the first South Atlantic hurricane

The landfall of Cyclone Catarina on the Brazilian coast in March 2004 became known as the first documented hurricane in the South Atlantic Ocean, promoting a new view oil how large-scale features can contribute to tropical transition. The aim of this paper is to put the large-scale circulation associated with Catarina`s transition in climate perspective. This is discussed in the light of a robust pattern of spatial correlations between thermodynamic and dynamic variables of importance for hurricane formation. A discussion on how transition mechanisms respond to the present-day circulation is presented. These associations help in understanding why Catarina was formed in a region previously thought to be hurricane-free. Catarina developed over a large-scale area of thermodynamically favourable air/sea temperature contrast. This aspect explains the paradox that such a rare system developed when the sea surface temperature was slightly below average. But, although thermodynamics played an important role, it is apparent that Catarina would not have formed without the key dynamic interplay triggered by a high latitude blocking. The blocking was associated with an extreme positive phase of the Southern Annular Mode (SAM) both hemispherically and locally, and the nearby area where Catarina developed is found to be more cyclonic during the positive phase of the SAM. A conceptual model is developed and a `South Atlantic index` is introduced as a useful diagnostic of potential conditions leading to tropical transition in the area, where large-scale indices indicate trends towards more favourable atmospheric conditions for tropical cyclone formation. Copyright (c) 2008 Royal Meteorological Society

An analysis of the environmental energetics associated with the transition of the first South Atlantic hurricane

This study presents the first analysis of the energetics associated with a hybrid cyclone`s transition in the Southern Hemisphere, Hurricane Catarina ( March 2004). Catarina has earned a place in history as the first documented South Atlantic hurricane, but its unusual tropical transition is still poorly understood. Here we show that Catarina`s transition was preceded by marked environmental changes in the Lorenz energy cycle, with an abrupt shift from a baroclinic to a predominantly barotropic state. Such changes help to explain the unusual vortex`s growth until its transition was completed. Although the vortex`s energy flux is not explicitly calculated, a likely mechanism linking the environmental energetics with Catarina is the extraction of eddy kinetic energy from horizontal momentum and heat transfers within the through component of the blocking. The results advance the understanding of this rare event and suggest that the technique has a great potential to study transitioning systems in general.

Notes on distribution, variation and characterization of Erythrolamprus pseudocorallus Roze, 1959 (Serpentes: Colubridae) with the first records from Colombia

The Maracaibo false coral snake Erythrolamprus pseudocorallus, previously known only from Venezuela, is recorded from five departments in Colombia. These new data include the westernmost and the southernmost records presently known for the species. Two specimens previously identified as E. aesculapii, from the localities of El Valle, Distrito Federal, Venezuela, and Yarumal, Antioquia, Colombia, are now attributed to E. pseudocorallus, the first one representing the northeasternmost record of the species. Morphological characterization of E. pseudocorallus is expanded based on the new specimens.

Aga, disciplin och fostran i den svenska folkskolan 1945-1959. : En studie om 1947 års skoldisciplinutredning, Skolöverstyrelsens direktiv i fostrans- och disciplinfrågor samt hanteringen av frågan om skolagan i Tunabygdens lärarklubb.

Denna historieuppsats (15hp) handlar om aga- och skoldisciplinsfrågorna i den svenska folkskolan. Undersökningens syfte är att granska hur disciplinsfrågorna i folkskolan hanterades före och efter agaförbudet på både nationell och lokal nivå. För att uppnå detta mål har i första hand tre olika källor använts, nämligen 1947 års skoldisciplinutredning, protokoll från Tunabygdens lärarklubb och dess studiecirkel samt Skolöverstyrelsens anvisningar till folkskolelärarna efter att agan hade förbjudits i folkskolan. Skoldisciplinutredningen kom som en följd av protesterna från lärarkåren och Skolöverstyrelsen till ett agaförbud. Disciplinutredningen kom inte fram till något agaförbud utan snarare fram till flera disciplinsfrämjande förslag. I Tunabygdens lärarklubb och dess studiecirkel bedrevs diskussioner som berörde aga, disciplin och fostran överhuvudtaget. Lärarklubben och folkskolestyrelserna i landet var emot ett agaförbud, men inte enbart för rätten i sig att få aga elever, utan också för att de var emot en stark centralstyrning som de upplevde fanns och som ifrågasatte lärarnas yrkesprofession. Skolöverstyrelsens anvisningar kom 1959, året efter agaförbudet och den handlade mycket om skolans och lärarnas fostrande uppgifter. Fungerande disciplin i klassen ansågs vara lika viktig som innan agaförbudet och det handlade om att ändra formerna för denna disciplin. För att upprätthålla ett fungerande disciplin ansåg Skolöverstyrelsen att det var oerhört viktigt att lära känna igen skolbarnet och dess hemförhållanden. För att kontrollera detta hade bl.a. lärare och skolläkare viktiga roller i hemmens hjälp att fostra barnen rätt, då tilltron till barnens föräldrar och uppväxtmiljö var låg från Skolöverstyrelsens sida.

Landsbygdens lärjungar : En studie av den sociala rekryteringen vid realskolan i Rättvik 1930-1959

Syftet med denna uppsats är att undersöka den sociala bakgrunden hos elever som läste vid Realskolan i Rättvik mellan åren 1930 och 1959. Källmaterialet består av antagnings- och avgångsmatriklar från Realskolan i Rättvik där uppgifter om elevens kön, faderns yrke, eventuell examen samt om eleven valt att läsa vidare på gymnasium efter avslutad skolgång hämtats. Ovanstående insamlad data visar vilken socialgrupp och vilket kön eleverna hade som läste på skolan, vilka som avbröt sina studier i förtid samt vilka som läste vidare på gymnasium efter realexamen. Indelningen i socialgrupper har gjorts utifrån SCB’s socioekonomiska indelning, SEI. Resultatet visar att elevernas sociala bakgrund har varierat över tid och även varierat mellan könen. Resultatet visar även att denna variation stämmer överens med omvärldens förändringar, där samhälleliga och social förändringar avspeglar sig i resultatet. Resultatet visar att de största variationerna återfinns i de lägre socialgrupperna, socialgrupp 2 och 3, där hemmansägarnas och arbetarnas barn befinner sig.

Hurricane Surge Inundation and Critical Resources in Maine

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Group photo at New York Trade School Commencement Ceremony, 1959

A group of administrators from the New York Trade School pose at the 1959 commencement ceremony held May 19, 1959. Original caption: "Front: (left to right) Wm. F. Vanderbeek - Kenneth Schweiger - Bernard Rosenstadt - Ralph D. Cole - George E. McLaughlin - Herbert Brod - Edward Hansen. Back: (left to right) James Wright - Lawrence Levenstein - Ronald B. Smith - Roy Wall."

Projeto de desenvolvimento e encampações no discurso do governo Leonel Brizola : Rio Grande do Sul (1959-1963)

Esta dissertação aborda o discurso do desenvolvimento do governo Leonel Brizola (1959-1963) no Rio Grande do Sul. A partir de uma perspectiva que associa as preocupações da Ciência Política com a abordagem da Análise do Discurso, este trabalho examina alguns dos principais aspectos da construção do referido discurso. Neste sentido, a pesquisa apresenta uma reflexão teórica sobre a noção de discurso e sobre destacadas matrizes de pensamento acerca dos modelos de desenvolvimento. Isto oferece subsídios para um exame das políticas no campo econômico por parte deste governo estadual. Dentre as medidas adotadas por esta administração, a dissertação enfatiza os processos de desapropriação de empresas estrangeiras nos setores de energia elétrica e de telecomunicações. Baseado no estudo específico destes eventos de intervenção estatal, a pesquisa analisa a constituição heterogênea do discurso do desenvolvimento do governo Brizola. Estes aspectos permitem averiguar: os distintos sentidos atribuídos ao desenvolvimento, o significado político destas encampações, a dinâmica dos elementos discursivos envolvidos e a importância de tais iniciativas governamentais na configuração de um projeto econômico para o Rio Grande do Sul.

A esquerda católica do Brasil: formação na prática político-educativa e no horizonte teórico dos anos 1959-1964

Este trabalho tem por objetivo estudar a formação da Esquerda Católica do Brasil durante os anos de 1959 -1964. O que se pretende focalizar, principalmente, e a busca do aprofundamento teórico e do referencial filosófico que orientou as práticas políticas e pedagógicas dos cristãos de esquerda no período imediatamente anterior ao golpe de 1964. Pela análise de sua trajetória nestes anos, é possível reconhecer traços originais e contribuições inovadoras que esta parcela de militantes católicos deixou na Igreja e na sociedade brasileira, cujos reflexos chegam até nossos dias.