The importance of glacier and forest change in hydrological climate-impact studies

Changes in land cover alter the water balance components of a catchment, due to strong interactions between soils, vegetation and the atmosphere. Therefore, hydrological climate impact studies should also integrate scenarios of associated land cover change. To reflect two severe climate-induced changes in land cover, we applied scenarios of glacier retreat and forest cover increase that were derived from the temperature signals of the climate scenarios used in this study. The climate scenarios were derived from ten regional climate models from the ENSEMBLES project. Their respective temperature and precipitation changes between the scenario period (2074–2095) and the control period (1984–2005) were used to run a hydrological model. The relative importance of each of the three types of scenarios (climate, glacier, forest) was assessed through an analysis of variance (ANOVA). Altogether, 15 mountainous catchments in Switzerland were analysed, exhibiting different degrees of glaciation during the control period (0–51%) and different degrees of forest cover increase under scenarios of change (12–55% of the catchment area). The results show that even an extreme change in forest cover is negligible with respect to changes in runoff, but it is crucial as soon as changes in evaporation or soil moisture are concerned. For the latter two variables, the relative impact of forest change is proportional to the magnitude of its change. For changes that concern 35% of the catchment area or more, the effect of forest change on summer evapotranspiration is equally or even more important than the climate signal. For catchments with a glaciation of 10% or more in the control period, the glacier retreat significantly determines summer and annual runoff. The most important source of uncertainty in this study, though, is the climate scenario and it is highly recommended to apply an ensemble of climate scenarios in the impact studies. The results presented here are valid for the climatic region they were tested for, i.e., a humid, mid-latitude mountainous environment. They might be different for regions where the evaporation is a major component of the water balance, for example. Nevertheless, a hydrological climate-impact study that assesses the additional impacts of forest and glacier change is new so far and provides insight into the question whether or not it is necessary to account for land cover changes as part of climate change impacts on hydrological systems.

Agroecosystem resilience and farmers’ perceptions of climate change impacts on cocoa farms in Alto Beni, Bolivia

Cocoa-based small-scale agriculture is the most important source of income for most farming families in the region of Alto Beni in the sub-humid foothills of the Andes. Cocoa is grown in cultivation systems of varying ecological complexity. The plantations are highly susceptible to climate change impacts. Local cocoa producers mention heat waves, droughts, floods and plant diseases as the main impacts affecting plants and working conditions, and they associate these impacts with global climate change. From a sustainable regional development point of view, cocoa farms need to become more resilient in order to cope with the climate change related effects that are putting cocoa-based livelihoods at risk. This study assesses agroecosystem resilience under three different cocoa cultivation systems (successional agroforestry, simple agroforestry and common practice monocultures). In a first step, farmers’ perceptions of climate change impacts were assessed and eight indicators of agroecological resilience were derived in a transdisciplinary process (focus groups and workshop) based on farmers’ and scientists’ knowledge. These indicators (soil organic matter, depth of Ah horizon, soil bulk density, tree species diversity, crop varieties diversity, ant species diversity, cocoa yields and infestation of cocoa trees with Moniliophthora perniciosa) were then surveyed on 15 cocoa farms and compared for the three different cultivation systems. Parts of the socio-economic aspects of resilience were covered by evaluating the role of cocoa cooperatives and organic certification in transitioning to more resilient cocoa farms (interviews with 15 cocoa farmers combined with five expert interviews). Agroecosystem resilience was higher under the two agroforestry systems than under common practice monoculture, especially under successional agroforestry. Both agroforestry systems achieved higher cocoa yields than common practice monoculture due to agroforestry farmers’ enhanced knowledge regarding cocoa cultivation. Knowledge sharing was promoted by local organizations facilitating organic certification. These organizations were thus found to enhance the social process of farmers’ integration into cooperatives and their reorientation toward organic principles and diversified agroforestry.

Oxygen isotope ratios (18O/16O) of hemicellulose-derived sugar biomarkers in plants, soils and sediments as paleoclimate proxy II: insight from a climate transect study

The oxygen isotopic composition of precipitation (δ18Oprec) is well known to be a valuable (paleo-)climate proxy. Paleosols and sediments and hemicelluloses therein have the potential to serve as archives recording the isotopic composition of paleoprecipitation. In a companion paper (Zech et al., 2014) we investigated δ18Ohemicellulose values of plants grown under different climatic conditions in a climate chamber experiment. Here we present results of compound-specific δ18O analyses of arabinose, fucose and xylose extracted from modern topsoils (n = 56) along a large humid-arid climate transect in Argentina in order to answer the question whether hemicellulose biomarkers in soils reflect δ18Oprec. The results from the field replications indicate that the homogeneity of topsoils with regard to δ18Ohemicellulose is very high for most of the 20 sampling sites. Standard deviations for the field replications are 1.5‰, 2.2‰ and 1.7‰, for arabinose, fucose and xylose, respectively. Furthermore, all three hemicellulose biomarkers reveal systematic and similar trends along the climate gradient. However, the δ18Ohemicellulose values (mean of the three sugars) do not correlate positively with δ18Oprec (r = −0.54, p < 0.014, n = 20). By using a Péclet-modified Craig-Gordon (PMCG) model it can be shown that the δ18Ohemicellulose values correlate highly significantly with modeled δ18Oleaf water values (r = 0.81, p < 0.001, n = 20). This finding suggests that hemicellulose biomarkers in (paleo-)soils do not simply reflect δ18Oprec but rather δ18Oprec altered by evaporative 18O enrichment of leaf water due to evapotranspiration. According to the modeling results, evaporative 18O enrichment of leaf water is relatively low (∼10‰) in the humid northern part of the Argentinian transect and much higher (up to 19‰) in the arid middle and southern part of the transect. Model sensitivity tests corroborate that changes in relative air humidity exert a dominant control on evaporative 18O enrichment of leaf water and thus δ18Ohemicellulose, whereas the effect of temperature changes is of minor importance. While oxygen exchange and degradation effects seem to be negligible, further factors needing consideration when interpreting δ18Ohemicellulose values obtained from (paleo-)soils are evaporative 18O enrichment of soil water, seasonality effects, wind effects and in case of abundant stem/root-derived organic matter input a partial loss of the evaporative 18O enrichment of leaf water. Overall, our results prove that compound-specific δ18O analyses of hemicellulose biomarkers in soils and sediments are a promising tool for paleoclimate research. However, disentangling the two major factors influencing δ18Ohemicellulose, namely δ18Oprec and relative air humidity controlled evaporative 18O enrichment of leaf water, is challenging based on δ18O analyses alone.

Monitoring the temporal development of natural hazard risks as a basis indicator for climate change adaptation.

The potential effects of climatic changes on natural risks are widely discussed. But the formulation of strategies for adapting risk management practice to climate changes requires knowledge of the related risks for people and economic values. The main goals of this work were (1) the development of a method for analysing and comparing risks induced by different natural hazard types, (2) highlighting the most relevant natural hazard processes and related damages, (3) the development of an information system for the monitoring of the temporal development of natural hazard risk and (4) the visualisation of the resulting information for the wider public. A comparative exposure analysis provides the basis for pointing out the hot spots of natural hazard risks in the province of Carinthia, Austria. An analysis of flood risks in all municipalities provides the basis for setting the priorities in the planning of flood protection measures. The methods form the basis for a monitoring system that periodically observes the temporal development of natural hazard risks. This makes it possible firstly to identify situations in which natural hazard risks are rising and secondly to differentiate between the most relevant factors responsible for the increasing risks. The factors that most influence the natural risks could be made evident.

A 22,000 14C year BP sediment and pollen record of climate change from Laguna Miscanti (23°S), northern Chile

Lake sediments and pollen, spores and algae from the high-elevation endorheic Laguna Miscanti (22°45′S, 67°45′W, 4140 m a.s.l., 13.5 km2 water surface, 10 m deep) in the Atacama Desert of northern Chile provide information about abrupt and high amplitude changes in effective moisture. Although the lack of terrestrial organic macrofossils and the presence of a significant 14C reservoir effect make radiocarbon dating of lake sediments very difficult, we propose the following palaeoenvironmental history. An initial shallow freshwater lake (ca. 22,000 14C years BP) disappeared during the extremely dry conditions of the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM; 18,000 14C years BP). That section is devoid of pollen. The late-glacial lake transgression started around 12,000 14C years BP, peaked in two phases between ca. 11,000 and <9000 14C years BP, and terminated around 8000 14C years BP. Effective moisture increased more than three times compared to modern conditions (∼200 mm precipitation), and a relatively dense terrestrial vegetation was established. Very shallow hypersaline lacustrine conditions prevailed during the mid-Holocene until ca. 3600 14C years BP. However, numerous drying and wetting cycles suggest frequent changes in moisture, maybe even individual storms during the mid-Holocene. After several humid spells, modern conditions were reached at ca. 3000 14C years BP. Comparison between limnogeological data and pollen of terrestrial plants suggest century-scale response lags. Relatively constant concentrations of long-distance transported pollen from lowlands east of the Andes suggest similar atmospheric circulation patterns (mainly tropical summer rainfall) throughout the entire period of time. These findings compare favorably with other regional paleoenvironmental data.

Climate reconstructions from the Tibet Plateau (PKDB286426)

Fluid inclusions of protogenous halite, which were collected from two boreholes in the Charhan Salt Lake in the north part of the Qinghai-Xizang Plateau, werea nalyzed for their hydrogen and oxygen isotopes and for their Na, Mg etc. ions.On these grounds, the evolution of lake environment in this region during the last 50 000 years are discussed in this paper. The emphasis is to discuss the time range of extremely arid and cold climate at the last Glacial stage and the geological event of playa associated with such a climate.The guanidine hydrochloride method was used for measurement of hydrogen and oxygen stable isotopes. The measurement of Na, Mg etc. ions were achieved by determination of crystallization temperature of hydrohalite under microscope and then by calculation of chemical compositions of inclusion fluid using a thermodynamic model.The results obtained show that protogenous halite in the Charhan Lake area was formed in three different environment conditions: (1) In fluid inclusions of halite formed in the early period (50 000-30 000 a B. P. ), dD averages -14.9 per mil, d(18)O averages 8.37 per mil, and Mg(2+)ranges from 0.42 to 1.59 mol/L. Their plotting points fall on the right top part of the evaporation line of the present Charhan Lake area, indicating that the Lake water at that time had a higher concentration of brine, and the climate was hot and dry. (2) In fluid inclusions of halite formed in the middle period (30 000-15 000 a B. P.), SD average -66.0 per mil, d(18)O averages 1.00 pr mil, and Mg(2+) 1 mol/L. Their plotting points fall on the left low part of the evaporation line, indicating that the lake water at that time had a concentration of brine lower than that in the early period, and the environment was cold and dry. (3) In fluid inclusions of halite formed in the late period (15 000-present), dD averages 30.8 per mil, d(18)O averages 5.85 per mil, and Mg(2+) M 1 mol/L. Their plotting fall on the evaporation line, indicating that the climate environment at that time was warm and dry, almost the same as the present.The temperature variation of the last 50 000 years in the Charhan Lake area was calculated using the conversion equation proposed by Lorious et al. The time range of the Great ice age of the Last Glacial Stage is about 21 000-15 000 a B.P., which basically coincides with the time of a worldwide low sea level. The temperature in that period was below 0°C and 6-7°C lower than now. Because of lower temperatures, water supply to the lake area decreased rapidly and the concentration of lake water increased sharply. Therefore the Mg(2+) concentration in inclusion fluid reaches or closes to 2mol/L and the Mg/Na ratio varies within a very wide range. These show that the Charhan Lake at that time entered its playa stage. The Charhan Salt Lake is a typical one in the north part of the Qinghai-Xizang Plateau. It can be supposed that the extremely arid and cold climate of the Great Ice Age made most lakes in the north part of the Qinghai-Xizang Plateau enter their playa stage. This event is of importance for formation of salt resources.

(Appendix) Bulk inorganic chemistry at DSDP Leg 77 Holes

Clay mineralogic and inorganic geochemical investigations of Cretaceous and Cenozoic sediments of the western Gulf of Mexico lead to the following main conclusions. (1) Transition of lowermost Cretaceous continental to marine sedimentation is marked by a clay evaporitic stage, north of the Campeche Escarpment. (2) Existence of combined mineralogic and geochemical stratigraphy allows us to propose correlations between Sites 535 and 540, especially for the Albian. (3) Predominance of detrital clay assemblages is indicative of hot and variably humid continental climate until the early late Cenozoic. (4) Tectonic destabilization of the margins of Gulf of Mexico occurred at different periods, especially until the middle Cretaceous, with a mixed erosion of rocks and soils and temporary oxidized conditions of deposition. (5) Successive developments of confined perimarine basins occurred from the earliest Cretaceous until the Miocene, chiefly in the Florida area. The sources of inorganic materials were chiefly situated on the east of the studied area until the late Tertiary and after that in the Mississippi River basin. (6) Occasionally, volcanic activity influenced the clay mineralogy and mainly the geochemistry, and possibly contributed to the rather strong magnesian character of the deposition until the late Paleogene. (7) The argillaceous diagenesis is weak; variability of the carbonate diagenesis is marked by the relation Sr = f(CaO) and chiefly depends on the depth of burial, the clay content, the porosity, and the geologic age.

Effects of irrigation and time of application on the yield and quality of cv. Cabernet sauvignon in a warm climate

Mediterranean climate is characterized by hot summer, high evapotranspiration rates, and scarce precipitations (400 mm per year) during grapevine cycle. These extremely dry conditions affect vineyard productivity and sustainability. Supplementary irrigation is a needed practice in order to maintain yield and quality. Almost all Spanish grape growing regions are characterized by these within this context, especially in the center region, where this study was performed. The main objective of this work was to study the influence of irrigation on yield and quality. For this aim, we applied different levels of irrigation (mm of water applied) during different stages of growth and berry maturity. Four experimental treatments were applied considering the amount of water and the moment of the application: T1: Water irrigation (420 mm) applied from bloom to maturity. T2: Corresponded to the traditional irrigation scheduling, from preveraison to maturity (154 mm). T3: Water irrigation from bloom to preveraison, and water deficit from veraison to maturity (312 mm). T4: Irrigation applied from preveraison to maturity (230 mm) Experimental vineyard, cv. Cabernet Sauvignon, was located in a commercial vineyard (Bodegas Licinia S.L.) in the hot region of Morata de Tajuña (Madrid). The trial was performed during 2010 and 2011 seasons. Our results showed that yield increased from 2010 to 2011 in the treatments with a higher amount of water appli ed, T1 and T3 (24 and 10 % of yield increase respectively). This was mainly due to an increase in bud fertility (nº of bunches per shoot). Furthermore, sugar content was higher in T3 (27.3 ºBrix), followed by T2 (27 ºBrix). By contrast, T4 (irrigation from veraison) presented the lowest solid soluble concentration and the highest acidity. These results suggest that grapevine has an intrinsic capacity to adapt to its environment. However, this adaptation capacity should be evaluated considering the sensibility of quality parameters during the maturity period (acidity, pH, aroma, color...) and its impact on yield. Here, we demonstrated that a higher amount of water irrigation applied was no linked to a negative effect on quality.

Land cover dynamics and climate change implications on water resources in South Pacific Costa Rica

Water is fundamental to human life and the availability of freshwater is often a constraint on human welfare and economic development. Consequently, the potential effects of global changes on hydrology and water resources are considered among the most severe and vital ones. Water scarcity is one of the main problems in the rural communities of Central America, as a result of an important degradation of catchment areas and the over-exploitation of aquifers. The present Thesis is focused on two critical aspects of global changes over water resources: (1) the potential effects of climate change on water quantity and (2) the impacts of land cover and land use changes on the hydrological processes and water cycle. Costa Rica is among the few developing countries that have recently achieved a land use transition with a net increase in forest cover. Osa Region in South Pacific Costa Rica is an appealing study site to assess water supply management plans and to measure the effects of deforestation, forest transitions and climate change projections reported in the region. Rural Community Water Supply systems (ASADAS) in Osa are dealing with an increasing demand of freshwater due to the growing population and the change in the way of life in the rural livelihoods. Land cover mosaics which have resulted from the above mentioned processes are characterized by the abandonment of marginal farmland with the spread over these former grasslands of high return crops and the expansion of secondary forests due to reforestation initiatives. These land use changes have a significant impact on runoff generation in priority water-supply catchments in the humid tropics, as evidenced by the analysis of the Tinoco Experimental Catchment in the Southern Pacific area of Costa Rica. The monitoring system assesses the effects of the different land uses on the runoff responses and on the general water cycle of the basin. Runoff responses at plot scale are analyzed for secondary forests, oil palm plantations, forest plantations and grasslands. The Oil palm plantation plot presented the highest runoff coefficient (mean RC=32.6%), twice that measured under grasslands (mean RC=15.3%) and 20-fold greater than in secondary forest (mean RC=1.7%). A Thornthwaite-type water balance is proposed to assess the impact of land cover and climate change scenarios over water availability for rural communities in Osa Region. Climate change projections were obtained by the downscaling of BCM2, CNCM3 and ECHAM5 models. Precipitation and temperature were averaged and conveyed by the A1B, A2 and B1 IPCC climate scenario for 2030, 2060 and 2080. Precipitation simulations exhibit a positive increase during the dry season for the three scenarios and a decrease during the rainy season, with the highest magnitude (up to 25%) by the end of the 21st century under scenario B1. Monthly mean temperature simulations increase for the three scenarios throughout the year with a maximum increase during the dry season of 5% under A1B and A2 scenarios and 4% under B1 scenario. The Thornthwaite-type Water Balance model indicates important decreases of water surplus for the three climate scenarios during the rainy season, with a maximum decrease on May, which under A1B scenario drop up to 20%, under A2 up to 40% and under B1 scenario drop up to almost 60%. Land cover scenarios were created taking into account current land cover dynamics of the region. Land cover scenario 1 projects a deforestation situation, with forests decreasing up to 15% due to urbanization of the upper catchment areas; land cover scenario 2 projects a forest recovery situation where forested areas increase due to grassland abandonment on areas with more than 30% of slope. Deforestation scenario projects an annual water surplus decrease of 15% while the reforestation scenario projects a water surplus increase of almost 25%. This water balance analysis indicates that climate scenarios are equal contributors as land cover scenarios to future water resource estimations.

Insect herbivory, plant defense, and early Cenozoic climate change

Insect damage on fossil leaves from the Central Rocky Mountains, United States, documents the response of herbivores to changing regional climates and vegetation during the late Paleocene (humid, warm temperate to subtropical, predominantly deciduous), early Eocene (humid subtropical, mixed deciduous and evergreen), and middle Eocene (seasonally dry, subtropical, mixed deciduous and thick-leaved evergreen). During all three time periods, greater herbivory occurred on taxa considered to have short rather than long leaf life spans, consistent with studies in living forests that demonstrate the insect resistance of long-lived, thick leaves. Variance in herbivory frequency and diversity was highest during the middle Eocene, indicating the increased representation of two distinct herbivory syndromes: one for taxa with deciduous, palatable foliage, and the other for hosts with evergreen, thick-textured, small leaves characterized by elevated insect resistance. Leaf galling, which is negatively correlated with moisture today, apparently increased during the middle Eocene, whereas leaf mining decreased.

The changing climate in accident research.

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