Feasibility Assessment of Plug and Play Model Predictive Control for use in DC Grids

Distributed control techniques can allow Transmission System Operators (TSOs) to coordinate their responses via TSO-TSO communication, providing a level of control that lies between that of centralised control and communication free decentralised control of interconnected power systems. Recently the Plug and Play Model Predictive Control (PnPMPC) toolbox has been developed in order to allow practitioners to design distributed controllers based on tube-MPC techniques. In this paper, some initial results using the PnPMPC toolbox for the design of distributed controllers to enhance AGC in AC areas connected to Multi-Terminal HVDC (MTDC) grids, are illustrated, in order to evaluate the feasibility of applying PnPMPC for this purpose.

Galleria mellonella as a novel in vivo model for assessment of the toxicity of 1-alkyl-3-methylimidazolium chloride ionic liquids

The larval form of the Greater Wax Moth (Galleria mellonella) was evaluated as a model system for the study of the acute in vivo toxicity of 1-alkyl-3-methylimidazolium chloride ionic liquids. 24-h median lethal dose (LD50) values for nine of these ionic liquids bearing alkyl chain substituents ranging from 2 to 18 carbon atoms were determined. The in vivo toxicity of the ionic liquids was found to correlate directly with the length of the alkyl chain substituent, and the pattern of toxicity observed was in accordance with previous studies of ionic liquid toxicity in other living systems, including a characteristic toxicity ‘cut-off’ effect. However, G. mellonella appeared to be more susceptible to the toxic effects of the ionic liquids tested, possibly as a result of their high body fat content. The results obtained in this study indicate that G. mellonella represents a sensitive, reliable and robust in vivo model organism for the evaluation of ionic liquid toxicity.

Development of a sheep vertebroplasty model for bioceramic materials assessment

Development of a sheep vertebroplasty model for bioceramic materials assessment Sheep has been widely used as an animal orthopaedic model. Although several studies report anatomic and biomechanical similarities as well as distinctions of ovine lumbar vertebrae when compared to human’s, only a few studies describe its actual use as a vertebroplasty model. Due to distinct anatomic features, sheep lumbar vertebrae pose a challenge when developing a minimally invasive procedure for vertebroplasty material testing, under conditions meant to be the most similar to clinical procedure. The present work describes the development of an appropriate surgical percutaneous vertebroplasty model in the lumbar spine of sheep, applicable in vivo, that minimizes the risk of post-surgical complications. This model was mechanically evaluated ex-vivo regarding its safety, and used to evaluate the injectability and radiopacity of two new bioceramic materials when compared to a commercial bioceramic bone substitute (Cerament™ SpineSupport). Microtomography techniques helped in the development of the model and results assessment. Under fluoroscopic guidance, a defect was created through a bilateral modified parapedicular access in the cranial hemivertebrae of 30 sheep lumbar vertebrae (L4, L5 and L6). The manually drilled defect had an average volume of 1209 ±226 mm3 and allowed the novel materials injection through a standardized injection cannula placed in one of the entrance points. Adequate defect filling was observed with all tested materials. No mechanical failure was observed under loads higher than the physiological.

Intracoronary Delivery of Human Mesenchymal/Stromal Stem Cells: Insights from Coronary Microcirculation Invasive Assessment in a Swine Model

BACKGROUND: Mesenchymal stem/stromal cells have unique properties favorable to their use in clinical practice and have been studied for cardiac repair. However, these cells are larger than coronary microvessels and there is controversy about the risk of embolization and microinfarctions, which could jeopardize the safety and efficacy of intracoronary route for their delivery. The index of microcirculatory resistance (IMR) is an invasive method for quantitatively assessing the coronary microcirculation status. OBJECTIVES: To examine heart microcirculation after intracoronary injection of mesenchymal stem/stromal cells with the index of microcirculatory resistance. METHODS: Healthy swine were randomized to receive by intracoronary route either 30x106 MSC or the same solution with no cells (1% human albumin/PBS) (placebo). Blinded operators took coronary pressure and flow measurements, prior to intracoronary infusion and at 5 and 30 minutes post-delivery. Coronary flow reserve (CFR) and the IMR were compared between groups. RESULTS: CFR and IMR were done with a variance within the 3 transit time measurements of 6% at rest and 11% at maximal hyperemia. After intracoronary infusion there were no significant differences in CFR. The IMR was significantly higher in MSC-injected animals (at 30 minutes, 14.2U vs. 8.8U, p = 0.02) and intragroup analysis showed a significant increase of 112% from baseline to 30 minutes after cell infusion, although no electrocardiographic changes or clinical deterioration were noted. CONCLUSION: Overall, this study provides definitive evidence of microcirculatory disruption upon intracoronary administration of mesenchymal stem/stromal cells, in a large animal model closely resembling human cardiac physiology, function and anatomy.

Empirical Assessment of an Intertemporal Option Pricing Model with Latent variables

This paper assesses the empirical performance of an intertemporal option pricing model with latent variables which generalizes the Hull-White stochastic volatility formula. Using this generalized formula in an ad-hoc fashion to extract two implicit parameters and forecast next day S&P 500 option prices, we obtain similar pricing errors than with implied volatility alone as in the Hull-White case. When we specialize this model to an equilibrium recursive utility model, we show through simulations that option prices are more informative than stock prices about the structural parameters of the model. We also show that a simple method of moments with a panel of option prices provides good estimates of the parameters of the model. This lays the ground for an empirical assessment of this equilibrium model with S&P 500 option prices in terms of pricing errors.

Assessment of the usability of the 'alpha' version of the prototype 'Octopus'-application of the heuristic evaluation model of user's graphic interfaces. 'Evaluación de la utilidad de la versión 'alfa' del prototipo 'Octopus'-uso del modelo de evaluación heurístico de los interfaces gráficos del usuario'.

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Dynamical downscaling: Assessment of model system dependent retained and added variability for two different regional climate models

Uncertainty assessment of a process-based integrated catchment model of phosphorus

Despite the many models developed for phosphorus concentration prediction at differing spatial and temporal scales, there has been little effort to quantify uncertainty in their predictions. Model prediction uncertainty quantification is desirable, for informed decision-making in river-systems management. An uncertainty analysis of the process-based model, integrated catchment model of phosphorus (INCA-P), within the generalised likelihood uncertainty estimation (GLUE) framework is presented. The framework is applied to the Lugg catchment (1,077 km2), a River Wye tributary, on the England–Wales border. Daily discharge and monthly phosphorus (total reactive and total), for a limited number of reaches, are used to initially assess uncertainty and sensitivity of 44 model parameters, identified as being most important for discharge and phosphorus predictions. This study demonstrates that parameter homogeneity assumptions (spatial heterogeneity is treated as land use type fractional areas) can achieve higher model fits, than a previous expertly calibrated parameter set. The model is capable of reproducing the hydrology, but a threshold Nash-Sutcliffe co-efficient of determination (E or R 2) of 0.3 is not achieved when simulating observed total phosphorus (TP) data in the upland reaches or total reactive phosphorus (TRP) in any reach. Despite this, the model reproduces the general dynamics of TP and TRP, in point source dominated lower reaches. This paper discusses why this application of INCA-P fails to find any parameter sets, which simultaneously describe all observed data acceptably. The discussion focuses on uncertainty of readily available input data, and whether such process-based models should be used when there isn’t sufficient data to support the many parameters.

An Assessment of the Recent Past and Future Climate Change, Glacier Retreat, and Runoff in the Caucasus Region Using Dynamical and Statistical Downscaling and HBV-ETH Hydrological Model

The paper discusses the observed and projected warming in the Caucasus region and its implications for glacier melt and runoff. A strong positive trend in summer air temperatures of 0.05 degrees C a(-1) is observed in the high-altitude areas providing for a strong glacier melt and continuous decline in glacier mass balance. A warming of 4-7 degrees C and 3-5 degrees C is projected for the summer months in 2071-2100 under the A2 and B2 emission scenarios respectively, suggesting that enhanced glacier melt can be expected. The expected changes in winter precipitation will not compensate for the summer melt and glacier retreat is likely to continue. However, a projected small increase in both winter and summer precipitation combined with the enhanced glacier melt will result in increased summer runoff in the currently glaciated region of the Caucasus (independent of whether the region is glaciated at the end of the twenty-first century) by more than 50% compared with the baseline period.

Glacier shrinkage and climatic change in the Russian Altai from the mid-20th century: An assessment using remote sensing and PRECIS regional climate model

This paper examines changes in the surface area of glaciers in the North and South Chuya Ridges, Altai Mountains in 1952-2004 and their links with regional climatic variations. The glacier surface areas for 2004 were derived from the Advanced Spaceborne Thermal Emission and Reflection Radiometer (ASTER) imagery. Data from the World Glacier Inventory (WGI)dating to 1952 and aerial photographs from 1952 were used to estimate the changes. 256 glaciers with a combined area of 253±5.1 km2 have been identified in the region in 2004. Estimation of changes in extent of 126 glaciers with the individual areas not less than 0.5 km2 in 1952 revealed a 19.7±5.8% reduction. The observed glacier retreat is primarily driven by an increase in summer temperatures since the 1980s when air temperatures were increasing at a rate of 0.10 - 0.13oC a-1 at the glacier tongue elevation. The regional climate projections for A2 and B2 CO2 emission scenarios developed using PRECIS regional climate model indicate that summer temperatures will increase in the Altai in 2071-2100 by 6-7oC and 3-5oC respectively in comparison with 1961-1990 while annual precipitation will increase by 15% and 5%. The length of the ablation season will extend from June-August to the late April – early October. The projected increases in precipitation will not compensate for the projected warming and glaciers will continue to retreat in the 21st century under both B2 and A2 scenarios.

A model-based assessment of the effects of projected climate change on the water resources of Jordan

This paper is concerned with the quantification of the likely effect of anthropogenic climate change on the water resources of Jordan by the end of the twenty-first century. Specifically, a suite of hydrological models are used in conjunction with modelled outcomes from a regional climate model, HadRM3, and a weather generator to determine how future flows in the upper River Jordan and in the Wadi Faynan may change. The results indicate that groundwater will play an important role in the water security of the country as irrigation demands increase. Given future projections of reduced winter rainfall and increased near-surface air temperatures, the already low groundwater recharge will decrease further. Interestingly, the modelled discharge at the Wadi Faynan indicates that extreme flood flows will increase in magnitude, despite a decrease in the mean annual rainfall. Simulations projected no increase in flood magnitude in the upper River Jordan. Discussion focuses on the utility of the modelling framework, the problems of making quantitative forecasts and the implications of reduced water availability in Jordan.