Demand-based structural change and balanced economic growth

[eng] We analyze the equilibrium of a multi-sector exogenous growth model where the introduction of minimum consumption requirements drives structural change. We show that equilibrium dynamics simultaneously exhibt structural change and balanced growth of aggregate variables as is observed in US when the initial intensity of minimum consumption requirements is sufficiently small. This intensity is measured by the ratio between the aggregate value of the minimum consumption requirements and GDP and, therefore, it is inversely related with the level of economic development. Initially rich economies benefit from an initially low intensity of the minimum consumption requirements and, as a consequence, these economies end up exhibiting balanced growth of aggregate variables, while there is structural change. In contrast, initially poor economies suffer from an initially large intensity of the minimum consumption requirements, which makes the growth of the aggregate variables unbalanced during a very large period. These economies may never exhibit simultaneously balanced growth of aggregate variables and structural change.

Predicting the future effectiveness of protected areas for bird conservation in Mediterranean ecosystems under climate change and novel fire regime scenarios

AimGlobal environmental changes challenge traditional conservation approaches based on the selection of static protected areas due to their limited ability to deal with the dynamic nature of driving forces relevant to biodiversity. The Natura 2000 network (N2000) constitutes a major milestone in biodiversity conservation in Europe, but the degree to which this static network will be able to reach its long-term conservation objectives raises concern. We assessed the changes in the effectiveness of N2000 in a Mediterranean ecosystem between 2000 and 2050 under different combinations of climate and land cover change scenarios. LocationCatalonia, Spain. MethodsPotential distribution changes of several terrestrial bird species of conservation interest included in the European Union's Birds Directive were predicted within an ensemble-forecasting framework that hierarchically integrated climate change and land cover change scenarios. Land cover changes were simulated using a spatially explicit fire-succession model that integrates fire management strategies and vegetation encroachment after the abandonment of cultivated areas as the main drivers of landscape dynamics in Mediterranean ecosystems. ResultsOur results suggest that the amount of suitable habitats for the target species will strongly decrease both inside and outside N2000. However, the effectiveness of N2000 is expected to increase in the next decades because the amount of suitable habitats is predicted to decrease less inside than outside this network. Main conclusionsSuch predictions shed light on the key role that the current N2000may play in the near future and emphasize the need for an integrative conservation perspective wherein agricultural, forest and fire management policies should be considered to effectively preserve key habitats for threatened birds in fire-prone, highly dynamic Mediterranean ecosystems. Results also show the importance of considering landscape dynamics and the synergies between different driving forces when assessing the long-term effectiveness of protected areas for biodiversity conservation.

Validation of French and German versions of a Perceived Neighborhood Social Cohesion questionnaire among young Swiss males, and its relationship with substance use

This study main purpose was the validation of both French and German versions of a Perceived Neighborhood Social Cohesion Questionnaire. The sample group comprised 5065 Swiss men from the "Cohort Study on Substance Use Risk Factors." Multigroup Confirmatory factor analysis showed that a three-factor model fits the data well, which substantiates the generalizability of Perceived Neighborhood Social Cohesion Questionnaire factor structure, regardless of the language. The Perceived Neighborhood Social Cohesion Questionnaire demonstrated excellent homogeneity (α = 95) and split-half reliability (r = .96). The Perceived Neighborhood Social Cohesion Questionnaire was sensitive to community size and participants' financial situation, confirming that it also measures real social conditions. Finally, weak but frequent correlations between Perceived Neighborhood Social Cohesion Questionnaire and alcohol, cigarette, and cannabis dependence were measured.

A Meta-Analysis of Trabecular Bone Score in Fracture Risk Prediction and Its Relationship to FRAX.

Trabecular bone score (TBS) is a gray-level textural index of bone microarchitecture derived from lumbar spine dual-energy X-ray absorptiometry (DXA) images. TBS is a bone mineral density (BMD)-independent predictor of fracture risk. The objective of this meta-analysis was to determine whether TBS predicted fracture risk independently of FRAX probability and to examine their combined performance by adjusting the FRAX probability for TBS. We utilized individual-level data from 17,809 men and women in 14 prospective population-based cohorts. Baseline evaluation included TBS and the FRAX risk variables, and outcomes during follow-up (mean 6.7 years) comprised major osteoporotic fractures. The association between TBS, FRAX probabilities, and the risk of fracture was examined using an extension of the Poisson regression model in each cohort and for each sex and expressed as the gradient of risk (GR; hazard ratio per 1 SD change in risk variable in direction of increased risk). FRAX probabilities were adjusted for TBS using an adjustment factor derived from an independent cohort (the Manitoba Bone Density Cohort). Overall, the GR of TBS for major osteoporotic fracture was 1.44 (95% confidence interval [CI] 1.35-1.53) when adjusted for age and time since baseline and was similar in men and women (p > 0.10). When additionally adjusted for FRAX 10-year probability of major osteoporotic fracture, TBS remained a significant, independent predictor for fracture (GR = 1.32, 95% CI 1.24-1.41). The adjustment of FRAX probability for TBS resulted in a small increase in the GR (1.76, 95% CI 1.65-1.87 versus 1.70, 95% CI 1.60-1.81). A smaller change in GR for hip fracture was observed (FRAX hip fracture probability GR 2.25 vs. 2.22). TBS is a significant predictor of fracture risk independently of FRAX. The findings support the use of TBS as a potential adjustment for FRAX probability, though the impact of the adjustment remains to be determined in the context of clinical assessment guidelines. © 2015 American Society for Bone and Mineral Research.

Climate Change and the Cost of Carbon Sequestration: The Case of Forest Management

The Kyoto protocol allows Annex I countries to deduct carbon sequestered by land use, land-use change and forestry from their national carbon emissions. Thornley and Cannell (2000) demonstrated that the objectives of maximizing timber and carbon sequestration are not complementary. Based on this finding, this paper determines the optimal selective management regime taking into account the underlying biophysical and economic processes. The results show that the net benefits of carbon storage only compensate the decrease in net benefits of timber production once the carbon price has exceeded a certain threshold value. The sequestration costs are significantly lower than previous estimates

Holocene Varved Lake Sediments as Records of Palaeoenvironmental Change and Geomagnetic Palaeosecular Variation in Eastern Finland

This dissertation discusses Holocene palaeoenvironmental and palaeomagnetic secular variation (PSV) records reconstructed from sediments preserved in Lake Lehmilampi (63º37´N, 29º06´E) and Lake Kortejärvi (63º37´N, 28º56´E) in eastern Finland. Several piston and freeze cores were obtained from both lakes for varve and magnetic analyses. Sediment samples were impregnated in low-viscosity epoxy and physical parameters of varves, including varve thickness and relative grey-scale values, were recorded using x-ray densitometry combined with semiautomatic digital image analysis. On average, varve records of Lehmilampi and Kortejärvi cover 5122 and 3902 years, respectively. Past solar activity, as estimated by residual ₁₄C data, compares favourably with varve thicknesses from Lehmilampi during the last 2000 years. This indicates the potential of clastic-organic varves to record sensitively climatic variations. Bulk magnetic parameters, including magnetic susceptibility together with natural, anhysteretic and isothermal remanent magnetizations, were measured to describe mineral magnetic properties and geomagnetic palaeosecular variation recorded in the sediments. Main stages in the development of the investigated lakes are reflected in the variations in the mineral magnetic records, sediment lithology and composition. Similar variations in magnetic parameters and sediment organic matter suggest contribution of bacterial magnetite in the magnetic assemblages of Lehmilampi. Inclination and relative declination records yielded largely consistent results, attesting to the great potential of these sediments to preserve directional palaeosecular variation in high resolution. The PSV data from Lehmilampi and Kortejärvi were stacked into North Karelian PSV stack, which may be used for dating homogenous lake sediments in the same regional context. Reconstructed millennial variations in relative palaeointensity results are approximately in agreement with those seen in the absolute palaeointensity data from Europe. Centennial variations in the relative palaeointensity, however, are influenced by environmental changes. Caution is recommended when using varved lake sediments in reconstructing relative palaeointensity.

The history of Lapland : containing a geographical description, and a natural history of that country; with an account of the inhabitants, their original, religion, customs, habits, marriages, conjurations, employments, &c. Written by John Scheffer, ... Translated from the last edition in Latin, and illustrated with many curious copper-cutts. To which are added, the travels of the King of Sweden's mathematicians into Lapland: the history of Livonia, and the wars there: also a journey into Lapland, Finland, &c. Written by Dr. Olof Rudbeck in the year 1701

Added engraved title page: The history of Lapland.

Color change and quality response of ‘lane late’ orange submitted to degreening process

This study aimed at evaluating the effects of ethylene on peel color and compositional changes in ‘Lane late’ orange stored under refrigerated and ambient conditions. Physiologically mature, but green-peeled, oranges were exposed to ethylene gas under room temperature and high relative humidity for 24 hours. Storage chamber was ventilated with fresh air after 12 hours to mitigate consequences derived from fruit respiration. Both nondestructive analysis, such as peel color (hue angle, chromaticity, and brightness) and weight loss, and destructive ones (soluble solids, titratable acidity, pH, soluble solids to acidity ratio, and puncture force) were performed upon harvest, after degreening, and every three days during eighteen days in storage. Experiment was carried out using an entirely randomized design with thirty replications for nondestructive and four replications for destructive analyses, in a split plot scheme. Exposure to ethylene ensured a golden yellow peel for both fruit stored under ambient and refrigerated conditions. High relative humidity, associated with low temperature prevented fruit from losing moisture. Fruit exposure to ethylene did not affect weight loss, soluble solids, titratable acidity, pH, soluble solids, acidity ratio, or puncture force.

Variations in weed population densities, rate of change and community diversity in RR-soybeans and RR-maize strip crops under two herbicide strategies

Concerns about the sustainability of large-scale, direct-drilled RR-soybeans (Glycine max), and RR-maize (Zea mays) under monoculture in central Argentina are growing steadily. An experiment was conducted during three consecutive years to determine the effects of crops and systems (monocultures and strips) and herbicide strategy on weed density, population rate of change (l), b community diversity (H´), crop yields and Land Equivalent Ratio (LER). Not only crops but also crop systems differentially influenced weed densities along their growth and development. For crop harvests, weed densities increased in both maize crop systems as compared to in the one for soybeans, but the lowest increase occurred in soybean strips. Differences were leveled by both herbicide strategies, which achieved 73% efficacy during the critical periods in both crops. l of annual monocotyledonous increased, thus shifting the weed community composition. Species richness and H´ were not affected by crop systems, but both herbicide strategies, particularly POST, either in soybeans in monoculture or in maize strips, significantly enhanced H´. Crop yields significantly increased in the maize-strip system with POST (Year 1) or PRE (Years 2 and 3) strategies, thus increasing LER above 1. Herbicide Environmental Load treatments fall within very low or low field use rating.

Association of urinary 90 kDa angiotensin- converting enzyme with family history of hypertension and endothelial function in normotensive individuals

We described angiotensin-I-converting enzyme (ACE) isoforms with molecular masses of 190, 90, and 65 kDa in the urine of normotensive offspring of hypertensive subjects. Since they did not appear in equal amounts, we suggested that 90 kDa ACE might be a marker for hypertension. We evaluated the endothelial response in normotensive offspring with or without family history of hypertension and its association with the 90 kDa ACE in urine. Thirty-five normotensive subjects with a known family history of hypertension and 20 subjects without a family history of hypertension, matched for age, sex, body weight, and blood pressure, were included in the study. Endothelial function was assessed by ultrasound and a sample of urine was collected for determination of ACE isoforms. In the presence of a family history of hypertension and detection of 90 kDa ACE, we noted a maximal flow mediated dilation of 12.1 ± 5.0 vs 16.1 ± 6.0% in those without a previous history of hypertension and lacking urinary 90 kDa ACE (P < 0.05). In subjects with a family history of hypertension and presenting 90 kDa ACE, there were lower levels of HDL-cholesterol (P < 0.05) and higher levels of triglycerides (P < 0.05). Subjects with 90 kDa ACE irrespective of hypertensive history presented a trend for higher levels of triglycerides and HDL-cholesterol (P = 0.06) compared to subjects without 90 kDa ACE. Our data suggest that the 90 kDa ACE may be a marker for hypertension which may be related to the development of early atherosclerotic changes.