Changing patterns of coronary heart disease in the hunter region of New South Wales, Australia

A population-based observational study of men acid women aged 35-69 years in the Hunter Region of New South Wales, Australia, was conducted to assess the impact. of risk-factor modification and increased drug therapy on the trends in major coronary events and case fatality. From 1985 to 1993, there were 3006 coronary deaths and 6450 nonfatal major coronary events. Rates of death and nonfatal myocardial infarction declined, but there was an increase in hospital admissions for prolonged chess pain. Reductions in cigarette smoking, diastolic blood pressure, total cholesterol, and increased use of aspirin can fully explain the 3.3% (95% confidence interval [CI] 2.4, 4.2) average annual reduction in rates of major coronary events for men and the 4.1% (95% CI 2.7, 5.5) reduction for women. In contrast, increased use of aspirin, beta-blockers, fibrinolytic therapy, and angiotensin-converting enzyme inhibitors explain less than hall of the 8.9% (95% CI 5.9, 11.8) and 6.9% (95% CI 2.7, 10.9) average annual reduction in case fatality in hospital for men and women, respectively. These trends suggest a decline in severity of coronary heart disease consistent with reductions in risk-factor levels and improved acute medical treatment. J CLIN EPIDEMIOL 52;8:761-771, 1999. (C) 1999 Elsevier Science Inc.

Death and readmission in the year after hospital admission with cardiovascular disease: the Hunter Area Heart and Stroke Register

Objectives: To compare outcomes one year after hospital admission for patients initially discharged with a diagnosis of acute myocardial infarction (AMI), other ischaemic heart disease (other IHD), congestive heart failure (CHF) or stroke. Design: Cohort study. Setting: Hunter Area Heart and Stroke Register, which registers all patients admitted with heart disease or stroke to any of the 22 hospitals in the Hunter Area Health Service in New South Wales. Patients: 4981 patients with AMI, other IHD, CHF or stroke admitted to hospital as an emergency between 1 July 1995 and 30 June 1997 and followed for at least one year. Main outcome measures: Death from any cause or emergency hospital readmission for cardiovascular disease. Results: In-hospital mortality varied from 1% of those with other IHD to 22% of those with stroke. Almost a third of all patients discharged alive (and 38% of those aged 70 or more) had died or been readmitted within one year. This varied from 22% of those with stroke to 49% of those with CHF. The causes of death and readmission were from a spectrum of cardiovascular disease, regardless of the cause of the original hospital admission. Conclusions: Data from this population register show the poor outcome, especially with increasing age, among patients admitted to hospital with cardiovascular disease. This should alert us to determine whether optimal secondary prevention strategies are being adopted among such patients.

Occupation, hours worked, and leisure-time physical activity

Background. International research indicates that blue-collar employees typically exhibit lower rates of leisure-time physical activity. While lack of time and work demands are commonly reported barriers to activity, the extent to which time-at-work mediates the relationship between occupation and leisure-time physical activity is unclear. This study investigated the association between occupation, time spent in paid employment, and participation in leisure-time physical activity. Methods. This was a secondary analysis of cross-sectional data from the 1995 Australian Health Survey, focusing on employed persons ages 18-64 years (n = 24,454), Occupation was coded as per the Australian Standard Classification of Occupations and collapsed into three categories (professional, white-collar, blue-collar). Hours worked was categorized into eight levels, ranging from 1-14 to more than 50 h per week. Participation in leisure-time physical activity was categorized as either insufficient or sufficient for health, consistent with recommended levels of energy expenditure (1600 METS-min/fortnight). The relationship between occupation, hours worked, and leisure-time physical activity was examined using logistic regression. Analyses were conducted separately for male and female, and the results are presented as a series of models that successively adjust for a range of potential covariates: age, living arrangement, smoking status, body mass index, and self-reported health. Results. Individuals in blue-collar occupations were approximately 50% more likely to be classified as insufficiently active. This occupational variability in leisure-time physical activity was not explained by hours worked. There was a suggested relationship between hours worked and leisure-time physical activity; however, this differed between men and women, and was difficult to interpret. Conclusions. Occupational variability in leisure-time physical activity cannot be explained by hours worked. Therefore, reports that work constitutes a barrier to participation should be explored further. Identification of the factors contributing to occupational variability in leisure-time physical activity will add to our understanding of why population subgroups differ in their health risk profiles, and assist in the development of health promotion strategies to reduce rates of sedentariness and health inequalities. (C) 2000 American Health Foundation and Academic Press.

A model for predicting the future incidence of coronary heart disease within percentiles of coronary heart disease risk

Background We present a method (The CHD Prevention Model) for modelling the incidence of fatal and nonfatal coronary heart disease (CHD) within various CHD risk percentiles of an adult population. The model provides a relatively simple tool for lifetime risk prediction for subgroups within a population. It allows an estimation of the absolute primary CHD risk in different populations and will help identify subgroups of the adult population where primary CHD prevention is most appropriate and cost-effective. Methods The CHD risk distribution within the Australian population was modelled, based on the prevalence of CHD risk, individual estimates of integrated CHD risk, and current CHD mortality rates. Predicted incidence of first fatal and nonfatal myocardial infarction within CHD risk strata of the Australian population was determined. Results Approximately 25% of CHD deaths were predicted to occur amongst those in the top 10 percentiles of integrated CHD risk, regardless of age group or gender. It was found that while all causes survival did not differ markedly between percentiles of CHD risk before the ages of around 50-60, event-free survival began visibly to differ about 5 years earlier. Conclusions The CHD Prevention Model provides a means of predicting future CHD incidence amongst various strata of integrated CHD risk within an adult population. It has significant application both in individual risk counselling and in the identification of subgroups of the population where drug therapy to reduce CHD risk is most cost-effective. J Cardiovasc Risk 8:31-37 (C) 2001 Lippincott Williams & Wilkins.

Experiences with redo aortic valve surgery

Objectives and Methods: Reoperations are an integral part of a cardiac surgeon's practice. We share our experience of 546 reoperations over the last 21 years to January 2000, with the focus directed towards the timing of reoperation, reducing the mortality and morbidity of reoperation and rereplacement aortic valve surgery, and understanding the important risk factors. In addition, the precise technical steps that facilitate careful successful explantation of various devices (allograft, stented and stentless xenografts, and mechanical valves) are detailed. Results: Optimal planned reoperation before deterioration to New York Heart Association Class III/IV levels and before unfavorable cardiac and comorbidity general system failure occurs has produced low mortality and morbidity as compared with first operation results. However, unfavorable delays and late rereferral result in mortality rates of up to 22% for emergency redo AVR for degenerated bioprostheses. Conclusion: Cardiac surgical units have the opportunity to establish a closer patient-surgeon relationship, which favors, when necessary, the optimal timing of reoperation. Knowledge of the more important risk factors and adherence to specific technical steps at explantation of various devices enhances satisfactory reoperation outcomes.

Epidemiological modelling (including economic modelling) and its role in preventive drug therapy

In contrast to curative therapies, preventive therapies are administered to largely healthy individuals over long periods. The risk-benefit and cost-benefit ratios are more likely to be unfavourable, making treatment decisions difficult. Drug trials provide insufficient information for treatment decisions, as they are conducted on highly selected populations over short durations, estimate only relative benefits of treatment and offer little information on risks and costs. Epidemiological modelling is a method of combining evidence from observational epidemiology and clinical trials to assist in clinical and health policy decision-making. It can estimate absolute benefits, risks and costs of long-term preventive strategies, and thus allow their precise targeting to individuals for whom they are safest and most cost-effective. Epidemiological modelling also allows explicit information about risks and benefits of therapy to be presented to patients, facilitating informed decision-making.