Modelling European winter wind storm losses in current and future climate

Severe wind storms are one of the major natural hazards in the extratropics and inflict substantial economic damages and even casualties. Insured storm-related losses depend on (i) the frequency, nature and dynamics of storms, (ii) the vulnerability of the values at risk, (iii) the geographical distribution of these values, and (iv) the particular conditions of the risk transfer. It is thus of great importance to assess the impact of climate change on future storm losses. To this end, the current study employs—to our knowledge for the first time—a coupled approach, using output from high-resolution regional climate model scenarios for the European sector to drive an operational insurance loss model. An ensemble of coupled climate-damage scenarios is used to provide an estimate of the inherent uncertainties. Output of two state-of-the-art global climate models (HadAM3, ECHAM5) is used for present (1961–1990) and future climates (2071–2100, SRES A2 scenario). These serve as boundary data for two nested regional climate models with a sophisticated gust parametrizations (CLM, CHRM). For validation and calibration purposes, an additional simulation is undertaken with the CHRM driven by the ERA40 reanalysis. The operational insurance model (Swiss Re) uses a European-wide damage function, an average vulnerability curve for all risk types, and contains the actual value distribution of a complete European market portfolio. The coupling between climate and damage models is based on daily maxima of 10 m gust winds, and the strategy adopted consists of three main steps: (i) development and application of a pragmatic selection criterion to retrieve significant storm events, (ii) generation of a probabilistic event set using a Monte-Carlo approach in the hazard module of the insurance model, and (iii) calibration of the simulated annual expected losses with a historic loss data base. The climate models considered agree regarding an increase in the intensity of extreme storms in a band across central Europe (stretching from southern UK and northern France to Denmark, northern Germany into eastern Europe). This effect increases with event strength, and rare storms show the largest climate change sensitivity, but are also beset with the largest uncertainties. Wind gusts decrease over northern Scandinavia and Southern Europe. Highest intra-ensemble variability is simulated for Ireland, the UK, the Mediterranean, and parts of Eastern Europe. The resulting changes on European-wide losses over the 110-year period are positive for all layers and all model runs considered and amount to 44% (annual expected loss), 23% (10 years loss), 50% (30 years loss), and 104% (100 years loss). There is a disproportionate increase in losses for rare high-impact events. The changes result from increases in both severity and frequency of wind gusts. Considerable geographical variability of the expected losses exists, with Denmark and Germany experiencing the largest loss increases (116% and 114%, respectively). All countries considered except for Ireland (−22%) experience some loss increases. Some ramifications of these results for the socio-economic sector are discussed, and future avenues for research are highlighted. The technique introduced in this study and its application to realistic market portfolios offer exciting prospects for future research on the impact of climate change that is relevant for policy makers, scientists and economists.

Objective determination of the extratropical transition of tropical cyclones in the Northern Hemisphere

Extratropical transition (ET) has eluded objective identification since the realisation of its existence in the 1970s. Recent advances in numerical, computational models have provided data of higher resolution than previously available. In conjunction with this, an objective characterisation of the structure of a storm has now become widely accepted in the literature. Here we present a method of combining these two advances to provide an objective method for defining ET. The approach involves applying K-means clustering to isolate different life-cycle stages of cyclones and then analysing the progression through these stages. This methodology is then tested by applying it to five recent years from the European Centre of Medium-Range Weather Forecasting operational analyses. It is found that this method is able to determine the general characteristics for ET in the Northern Hemisphere. Between 2008 and 2012, 54% (±7, 32 of 59) of Northern Hemisphere tropical storms are estimated to undergo ET. There is great variability across basins and time of year. To fully capture all the instances of ET is necessary to introduce and characterise multiple pathways through transition. Only one of the three transition types needed has been previously well-studied. A brief description of the alternate types of transitions is given, along with illustrative storms, to assist with further study

Request of the Government of the United Kingdom of Great Britain and Northern Ireland for admission of the Turks and Caicos as an associate member of the Economic Commission for Latin America and the Caribbean

Includes bibliography

Request by the United Kingdom of Great Britain and Northern Ireland for admission of the Cayman Islands as an associate member of ECLAC

Includes bibliography

Note by the Secretariat (Request by the United Kingdom of Great Britain and Northern Ireland for admission of Bermuda as an associate member of ECLAC)

Spanish version available

A river runs through it - ancient DNA data on the neolithic populations of the Great Hungarian Plain

This thesis was part of a multidisciplinary research project funded by the German Research Foundation (“Bevölkerungsgeschichte des Karpatenbeckens in der Jungsteinzeit und ihr Einfluss auf die Besiedlung Mitteleuropas”, grant no. Al 287/10-1) aimed at elucidating the population history of the Carpathian Basin during the Neolithic. The Carpathian Basin was an important waypoint on the spread of the Neolithic from southeastern to central Europe. On the Great Hungarian Plain (Alföld), the first farming communities appeared around 6000 cal BC. They belonged to the Körös culture, which derived from the Starčevo-Körös-Criş complex in the northern Balkans. Around 5600 cal BC the Alföld-Linearbandkeramik (ALBK), so called due to its stylistic similarities with the Transdanubian and central European LBK, emerged in the northwestern Alföld. Following a short “classical phase”, the ALBK split into several regional subgroups during its later stages, but did not expand beyond the Great Hungarian Plain. Marking the beginning of the late Neolithic period, the Tisza culture first appeared in the southern Alföld around 5000 cal BC and subsequently spread into the central and northern Alföld. Together with the Herpály and Csőszhalom groups it was an integral part of the late Neolithic cultural landscape of the Alföld. Up until now, the Neolithic cultural succession on the Alföld has been almost exclusively studied from an archaeological point of view, while very little is known about the population genetic processes during this time period. The aim of this thesis was to perform ancient DNA (aDNA) analyses on human samples from the Alföld Neolithic and analyse the resulting mitochondrial population data to address the following questions: is there population continuity between the Central European Mesolithic hunter-gatherer metapopulation and the first farming communities on the Alföld? Is there genetic continuity from the early to the late Neolithic? Are there genetic as well as cultural differences between the regional groups of the ALBK? Additionally, the relationships between the Alföld and the neighbouring Transdanubian Neolithic as well as other European early farming communities were evaluated to gain insights into the genetic affinities of the Alföld Neolithic in a larger geographic context. 320 individuals were analysed for this study; reproducible mitochondrial haplogroup information (HVS-I and/or SNP data) could be obtained from 242 Neolithic individuals. According to the analyses, population continuity between hunter-gatherers and the Neolithic cultures of the Alföld can be excluded at any stage of the Neolithic. In contrast, there is strong evidence for population continuity from the early to the late Neolithic. All cultural groups on the Alföld were heavily shaped by the genetic substrate introduced into the Carpathian Basin during the early Neolithic by the Körös and Starčevo cultures. Accordingly, genetic differentiation between regional groups of the ALBK is not very pronounced. The Alföld cultures are furthermore genetically highly similar to the Transdanubian Neolithic cultures, probably due to common ancestry. In the wider European context, the Alföld Neolithic cultures also highly similar to the central European LBK, while they differ markedly from contemporaneous populations of the Iberian Peninsula and the Ukraine. Thus, the Körös culture, the ALBK and the Tisza culture can be regarded as part of a “genetic continuum” that links the Neolithic Carpathian Basin to central Europe and likely has its roots in the Starčevo -Körös-Criş complex of the northern Balkans.

The arterial switch operation in Europe for transposition of the great arteries: a multi-institutional study from the European Congenital Heart Surgeons Association

OBJECTIVES: This study analyzes the results of the arterial switch operation for transposition of the great arteries in member institutions of the European Congenital Heart Surgeons Association. METHODS: The records of 613 patients who underwent primary arterial switch operations in each of 19 participating institutions in the period from January 1998 through December 2000 were reviewed retrospectively. RESULTS: A ventricular septal defect was present in 186 (30%) patients. Coronary anatomy was type A in 69% of the patients, and aortic arch pathology was present in 20% of patients with ventricular septal defect. Rashkind septostomy was performed in 75% of the patients, and 69% received prostaglandin. There were 37 hospital deaths (operative mortality, 6%), 13 (3%) for patients with an intact ventricular septum and 24 (13%) for those with a ventricular septal defect (P < .001). In 36% delayed sternal closure was performed, 8% required peritoneal dialysis, and 2% required mechanical circulatory support. Median ventilation time was 58 hours, and intensive care and hospital stay were 6 and 14 days, respectively. Although of various preoperative risk factors the presence of a ventricular septal defect, arch pathology, and coronary anomalies were univariate predictors of operative mortality, only the presence of a ventricular septal defect approached statistical significance (P = .06) on multivariable analysis. Of various operative parameters, aortic crossclamp time and delayed sternal closure were also univariate predictors; however, only the latter was an independent statistically significant predictor of death. CONCLUSIONS: Results of the procedure in European centers are compatible with those in the literature. The presence of a ventricular septal defect is the clinically most important preoperative risk factor for operative death, approaching statistical significance on multivariable analysis.

Invasion patterns of emerald ash borer and European earthworms in forested ecosystems

Invasive and exotic species present a serious threat to the health and sustainability of natural ecosystems. These species often benefit from anthropogenic activities that aid their introduction and dispersal. This dissertation focuses on invasion dynamics of the emerald ash borer, native to Asia, and European earthworms. These species have shown detrimental impacts in invaded forest ecosystems across the Great Lakes region, and continue to spread via human-assisted long distance dispersal and by natural modes of dispersal into interior forests from areas of introduction. Successful forest management requires that the impact and effect of invasive species be considered and incorporated into management plans. Understanding patterns and constraints of introduction, establishment, and spread will aid in this effort. To assist in efforts to locate introduction points of emerald ash borer, a multicriteria risk model was developed to predict the highest risk areas. Important parameters in the model were road proximity, land cover type, and campground proximity. The model correctly predicted 85% of known emerald ash borer invasion sites to be at high risk. The model’s predictions across northern Michigan can be used to focus and guide future monitoring efforts. Similar modeling efforts were applied to the prediction of European earthworm invasion in northern Michigan forests. Field sampling provided a means to improve upon modeling efforts for earthworms to create current and future predictions of earthworm invasion. Those sites with high soil pH and high basal area of earthworm preferred overstory species (such as basswood and maples) had the highest likelihood of European earthworm invasion. Expanding beyond Michigan into the Upper Great Lakes region, earthworm populations were sampled across six National Wildlife Refuges to identify potential correlates and deduce specific drivers and constraints of earthworm invasion. Earthworm communities across all refuges were influenced by patterns of anthropogenic activity both within refuges and in surrounding ecoregions of study. Forest composition, soil pH, soil organic matter, anthropogenic cover, and agriculture proximity also proved to be important drivers of earthworm abundance and community composition. While there are few management options to remove either emerald ash borer or European earthworms from forests after they have become well established, prevention and early detection are important and can be beneficial. An improved understanding the factors controlling the distribution and invasion patterns of exotic species across the landscape will aid efforts to determine their consequences and generate appropriate forest management solutions to sustain ecosystem health in the presence of these invaders.

The loss of trust in the European Union during the great recession since 2007: The role of heuristics from the national political system

How can we explain the decline in support for the European Union (EU) and the idea of European integration after the onset of the great recession in the fall of 2007? Did the economic crisis and the austerity policies that the EU imposed—in tandem with the IMF—on several member countries help cause this drop? While there is some evidence for this direct effect of EU policies, we find that the most significant determinant of trust and support for the EU remains the level of trust in national governments. Based on cue theory and using concepts of diffuse and specific support, we find that support for the EU is derived from evaluations of national politics and policy, which Europeans know far better than the remote political system of the EU. This effect, however, is somewhat muted for those sophisticated Europeans that are more knowledgeable about the EU and are able to form opinions about it independently of the national contexts in which they live. We also find that the recent economic crisis has led to a discernible increase in the number of those who are disillusioned with politics both at the national and the supranational level. We analyze 133 national surveys from 27 EU countries by estimating a series of cross-classified multilevel logistic regression models.

Biogeochemical indicators of peatland degradation – a case study of a temperate bog in Northern Germany

Organic soils in peatlands store a great proportion of the global soil carbon pool and can lose carbon via the atmosphere due to degradation. In Germany, most of the greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions from organic soils are attributed to sites managed as grassland. Here, we investigated a land use gradient from near-natural wetland (NW) to an extensively managed (GE) to an intensively managed grassland site (GI), all formed in the same bog complex in northern Germany. Vertical depth profiles of δ13C, δ15N, ash content, C / N ratio and bulk density as well as radiocarbon ages were studied to identify peat degradation and to calculate carbon loss. At all sites, including the near-natural site, δ13C depth profiles indicate aerobic decomposition in the upper horizons. Depth profiles of δ15N differed significantly between sites with increasing δ15N values in the top soil layers paralleling an increase in land use intensity owing to differences in peat decomposition and fertilizer application. At both grassland sites, the ash content peaked within the first centimetres. In the near-natural site, ash contents were highest in 10–60 cm depth. The ash profiles, not only at the managed grassland sites, but also at the near-natural site indicate that all sites were influenced by anthropogenic activities either currently or in the past, most likely due to drainage. Based on the enrichment of ash content and changes in bulk density, we calculated the total carbon loss from the sites since the peatland was influenced by anthropogenic activities. Carbon loss at the sites increased in the following order: NW < GE < GI. Radiocarbon ages of peat in the topsoil of GE and GI were hundreds of years, indicating the loss of younger peat material. In contrast, peat in the first centimetres of the NW was only a few decades old, indicating recent peat growth. It is likely that the NW site accumulates carbon today but was perturbed by anthropogenic activities in the past. Together, all biogeochemical parameters indicate a degradation of peat due to (i) conversion to grassland with historical drainage and (ii) land use intensification.

Low but contrasting neutral genetic differentiation shaped by winter temperature in European great tits

Gene flow is usually thought to reduce genetic divergence and impede local adaptation by homogenising gene pools between populations. However, evidence for local adaptation and phenotypic differentiation in highly mobile species, experiencing high levels of gene flow, is emerging. Assessing population genetic structure at different spatial scales is thus a crucial step towards understanding mechanisms underlying intraspecific differentiation and diversification. Here, we studied the population genetic structure of a highly mobile species – the great tit Parus major – at different spatial scales. We analysed 884 individuals from 30 sites across Europe including 10 close-by sites (< 50 km), using 22 microsatellite markers. Overall we found a low but significant genetic differentiation among sites (FST = 0.008). Genetic differentiation was higher, and genetic diversity lower, in south-western Europe. These regional differences were statistically best explained by winter temperature. Overall, our results suggest that great tits form a single patchy metapopulation across Europe, in which genetic differentiation is independent of geographical distance and gene flow may be regulated by environmental factors via movements related to winter severity. This might have important implications for the evolutionary trajectories of sub-populations, especially in the context of climate change, and calls for future investigations of local differences in costs and benefits of philopatry at large scales.