Landslide susceptibility mapping in the downstream region of Sharavathi river basin, Central Western Ghats

Landslides are hazards encountered during monsoon in undulating terrains of Western Ghats causing geomorphic make over of earth surface resulting in significant damages to life and property. An attempt is made in this paper to identify landslides susceptibility regions in the Sharavathi river basin downstream using frequency ratio method based on the field investigations during July- November 2007. In this regard, base layers of spatial data such as topography, land cover, geology and soil were considered. This is supplemented with the field investigations of landslides. Factors that influence landslide were extracted from the spatial database. The probabilistic model -frequency ratio is computed based on these factors. Landslide susceptibility indices were computed and grouped into five classes. Validation of LHS, showed an accuracy of 89% as 25 of the 28 regions tallied with the field condition of highly vulnerable landslide regions. The landslide susceptible map generated for the downstream would be useful for the district officials to implement appropriate mitigation measures to reduce hazards.

Bioenergy Status of Sharavathi River Basin, Western Ghats, India

Most of the developing countries including India depend heavily on bioenergy and it accounts for about 15% of the global energy usage. Its role in meeting a region’s requirement has increased the interest of assessing the status of biomass availability in a region. The present work deals with the bioenergy status in the Linganamakki reservoir catchment of the Sharavathi river basin, Western Ghats,India, by assessing the energy supply and sector wise energy consumption. The study reveals that majority of the households (92.17%) depend on fuelwood for their domestic energy needs with the per capita fuelwood consumption of 1.2 tonnes/year, which is higher than the national average (0.7 tonnes/year). This higher dependence on fuelwood has contributed to the degradation of forests,resulting in scarcity of bioresources necessitating exploration of viable energy alternatives to meet the growing energy demand.

Plant Diversity in the Sharavathi River Basin in Relation to Human Disturbance

Changes in vegetation are taking place due to anthropogenic activities since the colonization of the evergreen forest zone of Western Ghats. The forests of the Western Ghats were contiguous and uniformly rich in endemism within each climatic and physiographic regime. The region continues to be one of the biodiversity hot spots of the world. However unplanned developmental activities are altering the balance of the ecosystem. This study focuses on the floristic structure, composition and diversity of forests with varying degree of human disturbances. Based on the investigations, various strategies for conservation and sustainable utilization of forest resources were proposed.

Sharavathi River Basin Flora Information System(SRFIS)

The INFORMATION SYSTEM with user friendly GUI’s (Graphical user Interface) is developed to maintain the flora data and generate reports for Sharavathi River Basin. The database consists of the information related to trees, herbs, shrubs and climbers. The data is based on the primary field survey and the information available in flora of Shimoga, Karnataka and Hassan flora. User friendly query options based on dichotomous keys are provided to help user to retrieve the data while data entry options aid in updating and editing the database at family, genus and species levels.

River water quality response under hypothetical climate change scenarios in Tunga-Bhadra river, India

Analysis of climate change impacts on streamflow by perturbing the climate inputs has been a concern for many authors in the past few years, but there are few analyses for the impacts on water quality. To examine the impact of change in climate variables on the water quality parameters, the water quality input variables have to be perturbed. The primary input variables that can be considered for such an analysis are streamflow and water temperature, which are affected by changes in precipitation and air temperature, respectively. Using hypothetical scenarios to represent both greenhouse warming and streamflow changes, the sensitivity of the water quality parameters has been evaluated under conditions of altered river flow and river temperature in this article. Historical data analysis of hydroclimatic variables is carried out, which includes flow duration exceedance percentage (e.g. Q90), single low- flow indices (e.g. 7Q10, 30Q10) and relationships between climatic variables and surface variables. For the study region of Tunga-Bhadra river in India, low flows are found to be decreasing and water temperatures are found to be increasing. As a result, there is a reduction in dissolved oxygen (DO) levels found in recent years. Water quality responses of six hypothetical climate change scenarios were simulated by the water quality model, QUAL2K. A simple linear regression relation between air and water temperature is used to generate the scenarios for river water temperature. The results suggest that all the hypothetical climate change scenarios would cause impairment in water quality. It was found that there is a significant decrease in DO levels due to the impact of climate change on temperature and flows, even when the discharges were at safe permissible levels set by pollution control agencies (PCAs). The necessity to improve the standards of PCA and develop adaptation policies for the dischargers to account for climate change is examined through a fuzzy waste load allocation model developed earlier. Copyright (C) 2011 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Daily relative humidity projections in an Indian river basin for IPCC SRES scenarios

A two-stage methodology is developed to obtain future projections of daily relative humidity in a river basin for climate change scenarios. In the first stage, Support Vector Machine (SVM) models are developed to downscale nine sets of predictor variables (large-scale atmospheric variables) for Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Special Report on Emissions Scenarios (SRES) (A1B, A2, B1, and COMMIT) to R (H) in a river basin at monthly scale. Uncertainty in the future projections of R (H) is studied for combinations of SRES scenarios, and predictors selected. Subsequently, in the second stage, the monthly sequences of R (H) are disaggregated to daily scale using k-nearest neighbor method. The effectiveness of the developed methodology is demonstrated through application to the catchment of Malaprabha reservoir in India. For downscaling, the probable predictor variables are extracted from the (1) National Centers for Environmental Prediction reanalysis data set for the period 1978-2000 and (2) simulations of the third-generation Canadian Coupled Global Climate Model for the period 1978-2100. The performance of the downscaling and disaggregation models is evaluated by split sample validation. Results show that among the SVM models, the model developed using predictors pertaining to only land location performed better. The R (H) is projected to increase in the future for A1B and A2 scenarios, while no trend is discerned for B1 and COMMIT.

Controls on intense silicate weathering in a tropical river, southwestern India

The Silicate Weathering Rate (SWR) and associated Carbon dioxide Consumption Rate (CCR) in tropical silicate terrain is assessed through a study of the major ion chemistry in a small west flowing river of Peninsular India, the Nethravati River. The specific features of the river basin are high mean annual rainfall and temperature, high runoff and a Precambrian basement composed of granitic-gneiss, charnockite and minor metasediments. The water samples (n = 56) were collected from three locations along the Nethravati River and from two of its tributaries over a period of twelve months. Chemical Weathering Rate (CWR) for the entire watershed is calculated by applying rainwater correction using river chloride as a tracer. Chemical Weathering Rate in the Nethravati watershed is estimated to 44 t.km(-2).y(-1) encompassing a SWR of 42 t.km(-2).y(-1) and a maximum carbonate contribution of 2 t.km(-2).y(-1). This SWR is among the highest reported for granito-gneissic terrains. The assessed CCR is 2.9 . 10(5) mol.km(-2).y(-1). The weathering index (Re). calculated from molecular ratios of dissolved cations and silica in the river, suggests an intense silicate weathering leading to kaolinite-gibbsite precipitation in the weathering covers. The intense SWR and CCR could be due to the combination of high runoff and temperature along with the thickness and nature of the weathering cover. The comparison of silicate weathering fluxes with other watersheds reveals that under similar morpho-climatic settings basalt weathering would be 2.5 times higher than the granite-gneissic rocks. (C) 2012 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Simulating the daily discharge of the Mandovi River, west coast of India

A hydrological modelling framework was assembled to simulate the daily discharge of the Mandovi River on the Indian west coast. Approximately 90% of the west-coast rainfall, and therefore discharge, occurs during the summer monsoon (June-September), with a peak during July-August. The modelling framework consisted of a digital elevation model (DEM) called GLOBE, a hydrological routing algorithm, the Terrestrial Hydrological Model with Biogeochemistry (THMB), an algorithm to map the rainfall recorded by sparse rain-gauges to the model grid, and a modified Soil Conservation Service Curve Number (SCS-CN) method. A series of discharge simulations (with and without the SCS method) was carried out. The best simulation was obtained after incorporating spatio-temporal variability in the SCS parameters, which was achieved by an objective division of the season into five regimes: the lean season, monsoon onset, peak monsoon, end-monsoon, and post-monsoon. A novel attempt was made to incorporate objectively the different regimes encountered before, during and after the Indian monsoon, into a hydrological modelling framework. The strength of our method lies in the low demand it makes on hydrological data. Apart from information on the average soil type in a region, the entire parameterization is built on the basis of the rainfall that is used to force the model. That the model does not need to be calibrated separately for each river is important, because most of the Indian west-coast basins are ungauged. Hence, even though the model has been validated only for the Mandovi basin, its potential region of application is considerable. In the context of the Prediction in Ungauged Basins (PUB) framework, the potential of the proposed approach is significant, because the discharge of these (ungauged) rivers into the eastern Arabian Sea is not small, making them an important element of the local climate system.

Dynamo models of grand minima

Since a universally accepted dynamo model of grand minima does not exist at the present time, we concentrate on the physical processes which may be behind the grand minima. After summarizing the relevant observational data, we make the point that, while the usual sources of irregularities of solar cycles may be sufficient to cause a grand minimum, the solar dynamo has to operate somewhat differently from the normal to bring the Sun out of the grand minimum. We then consider three possible sources of irregularities in the solar dynamo: (i) nonlinear effects; (ii) fluctuations in the poloidal field generation process; (iii) fluctuations in the meridional circulation. We conclude that (i) is unlikely to be the cause behind grand minima, but a combination of (ii) and (iii) may cause them. If fluctuations make the poloidal field fall much below the average or make the meridional circulation significantly weaker, then the Sun may be pushed into a grand minimum.

Origin of grand minima in Sunspot cycles

One of the most striking aspects of the 11-year sunspot cycle is that there have been times in the past when some cycles went missing, a most well-known example of this being the Maunder minimum during 1645-1715. Analyses of cosmogenic isotopes (C-14 and Be-10) indicated that there were about 27 grand minima in the last 11 000 yrs, implying that about 2.7% of the solar cycles had conditions appropriate for forcing the Sun into grand minima. We address the question of how grand minima are produced and specifically calculate the frequency of occurrence of grand minima from a theoretical dynamo model. We assume that fluctuations in the poloidal field generation mechanism and in the meridional circulation produce irregularities of sunspot cycles. Taking these fluctuations to be Gaussian and estimating the values of important parameters from the data of the last 28 solar cycles, we show from our flux transport dynamo model that about 1-4% of the sunspot cycles may have conditions suitable for inducing grand minima.

Ganga-Brahmaputra river discharge from Jason-2 radar altimetry: An update to the long-term satellite-derived estimates of continental freshwater forcing flux into the Bay of Bengal

This paper discusses the use of Jason-2 radar altimeter measurements to estimate the Ganga-Brahmaputra surface freshwater flux into the Bay of Bengal for the period mid-2008 to December 2011. A previous estimate was generated for 1993-2008 using TOPEX-Poseidon, ERS-2 and ENVISAT, and is now extended using Jason-2. To take full advantages of the new availability of in situ rating curves, the processing scheme is adapted and the adjustments of the methodology are discussed here. First, using a large sample of in situ river height measurements, we estimate the standard error of Jason-2-derived water levels over the Ganga and the Brahmaputra to be respectively of 0.28 m and 0.19 m, or less than similar to 4% of the annual peak-to-peak variations of these two rivers. Using the in situ rating curves between water levels and river discharges, we show that Jason-2 accurately infers Ganga and Brahmaputra instantaneous discharges for 2008-2011 with mean errors ranging from similar to 2180 m(3)/s (6.5%) over the Brahmaputra to similar to 1458 m(3)/s (13%) over the Ganga. The combined Ganga-Brahmaputra monthly discharges meet the requirements of acceptable accuracy (15-20%) with a mean error of similar to 16% for 2009-2011 and similar to 17% for 1993-2011. The Ganga-Brahmaputra monthly discharge at the river mouths is then presented, showing a marked interannual variability with a standard deviation of similar to 12500 m(3)/s, much larger than the data set uncertainty. Finally, using in situ sea surface salinity observations, we illustrate the possible impact of extreme continental freshwater discharge event on the northern Bay of Bengal as observed in 2008.

Assessment of hydrologic impacts of climate change in Tunga-Bhadra river basin, India with HEC-HMS and SDSM

Climate change would significantly affect many hydrologic systems, which in turn would affect the water availability, runoff, and the flow in rivers. This study evaluates the impacts of possible future climate change scenarios on the hydrology of the catchment area of the TungaBhadra River, upstream of the Tungabhadra dam. The Hydrologic Engineering Center's Hydrologic Modeling System version 3.4 (HEC-HMS 3.4) is used for the hydrological modelling of the study area. Linear-regression-based Statistical DownScaling Model version 4.2 (SDSM 4.2) is used to downscale the daily maximum and minimum temperature, and daily precipitation in the four sub-basins of the study area. The large-scale climate variables for the A2 and B2 scenarios obtained from the Hadley Centre Coupled Model version 3 are used. After model calibration and testing of the downscaling procedure, the hydrological model is run for the three future periods: 20112040, 20412070, and 20712099. The impacts of climate change on the basin hydrology are assessed by comparing the present and future streamflow and the evapotranspiration estimates. Results of the water balance study suggest increasing precipitation and runoff and decreasing actual evapotranspiration losses over the sub-basins in the study area.

Fluctuations in the alpha-effect and grand solar minima

The parameters of a special type of alpha-effect known in dynamo theory as the Babcock-Leighton mechanism are estimated using the data of sunspot catalogs. The estimates support the presence of the Babcock-Leighton alpha-effect on the Sun. Fluctuations of the alpha-effect are also estimated. The fluctuation amplitude appreciably exceeds themean value, and the characteristic time for the fluctuations is comparable to the period of the solar rotation. Fluctuations with the parameters found are included in a numericalmodel for the solar dynamo. Computations show irregular changes in the amplitudes of the magnetic cycles on time scales of centuries and millennia. The calculated statistical characteristics of the grand solar minima and maxima agree with the data on solar activity over the Holocene.