920 resultados para Global Warming, Building Simulation, Internal Load Density, Adaptation Strategies
Resumo:
Warming experiments are increasingly relied on to estimate plant responses to global climate change. For experiments to provide meaningful predictions of future responses, they should reflect the empirical record of responses to temperature variability and recent warming, including advances in the timing of flowering and leafing. We compared phenology (the timing of recurring life history events) in observational studies and warming experiments spanning four continents and 1,634 plant species using a common measure of temperature sensitivity (change in days per degree Celsius). We show that warming experiments underpredict advances in the timing of flowering and leafing by 8.5-fold and 4.0-fold, respectively, compared with long-term observations. For species that were common to both study types, the experimental results did not match the observational data in sign or magnitude. The observational data also showed that species that flower earliest in the spring have the highest temperature sensitivities, but this trend was not reflected in the experimental data. These significant mismatches seem to be unrelated to the study length or to the degree of manipulated warming in experiments. The discrepancy between experiments and observations, however, could arise from complex interactions among multiple drivers in the observational data, or it could arise from remediable artefacts in the experiments that result in lower irradiance and drier soils, thus dampening the phenological responses to manipulated warming. Our results introduce uncertainty into ecosystem models that are informed solely by experiments and suggest that responses to climate change that are predicted using such models should be re-evaluated.
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Tropical cyclones are affected by a large number of climatic factors, which translates into complex patterns of occurrence. The variability of annual metrics of tropical-cyclone activity has been intensively studied, in particular since the sudden activation of the North Atlantic in the mid 1990’s. We provide first a swift overview on previous work by diverse authors about these annual metrics for the North-Atlantic basin, where the natural variability of the phenomenon, the existence of trends, the drawbacks of the records, and the influence of global warming have been the subject of interesting debates. Next, we present an alternative approach that does not focus on seasonal features but on the characteristics of single events [Corral et al., Nature Phys. 6, 693 (2010)]. It is argued that the individual-storm power dissipation index (PDI) constitutes a natural way to describe each event, and further, that the PDI statistics yields a robust law for the occurrence of tropical cyclones in terms of a power law. In this context, methods of fitting these distributions are discussed. As an important extension to this work we introduce a distribution function that models the whole range of the PDI density (excluding incompleteness effects at the smallest values), the gamma distribution, consisting in a powerlaw with an exponential decay at the tail. The characteristic scale of this decay, represented by the cutoff parameter, provides very valuable information on the finiteness size of the basin, via the largest values of the PDIs that the basin can sustain. We use the gamma fit to evaluate the influence of sea surface temperature (SST) on the occurrence of extreme PDI values, for which we find an increase around 50 % in the values of these basin-wide events for a 0.49 C SST average difference. Similar findings are observed for the effects of the positive phase of the Atlantic multidecadal oscillation and the number of hurricanes in a season on the PDI distribution. In the case of the El Niño Southern oscillation (ENSO), positive and negative values of the multivariate ENSO index do not have a significant effect on the PDI distribution; however, when only extreme values of the index are used, it is found that the presence of El Niño decreases the PDI of the most extreme hurricanes.
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The specificities of multinational corporations (MNCs) have to date not been a focus area of IS research. Extant literature mostly proposes IS configurations for specific types of MNCs, following a static and prescriptive approach. Our research seeks to explain the dynamics of global IS design. It suggests a new theoretical lens for studying global IS design by applying the structural adjustment paradigm from organizational change theories. Relying on archetype theory, we conduct a longitudinal case study to theorize the dynamics of IS adaptation. We find that global IS design emerges as an organizational adaptation process to balance interpretative schemes (i.e. the organization's values and beliefs) and structural arrangements (i.e. strategic, organizational, and IS configurations). The resulting insights can be used as a basis to further explore alternative global IS designs and movements between them.
Resumo:
Climate warming leads to a decrease in biodiversity. Organisms can deal with the new prevailing environmental conditions by one of two main routes, namely evolving new genetic adaptations or through phenotypic plasticity to modify behaviour and physiology. Melanin-based colouration has important functions in animals including a role in camouflage and thermoregulation, protection against UV-radiation and pathogens and, furthermore, genes involved in melanogenesis can pleiotropically regulate behaviour and physiology. In this article, I review the current evidence that differently coloured individuals are differentially sensitive to climate change. Predicting which of dark or pale colour variants (or morphs) will be more penalized by climate change will depend on the adaptive function of melanism in each species as well as how the degree of colouration covaries with behaviour and physiology. For instance, because climate change leads to a rise in temperature and UV-radiation and dark colouration plays a role in UV-protection, dark individuals may be less affected from global warming, if this phenomenon implies more solar radiation particularly in habitats of pale individuals. In contrast, as desertification increases, pale colouration may expand in those regions, whereas dark colourations may expand in regions where humidity is predicted to increase. Dark colouration may be also indirectly selected by climate warming because genes involved in the production of melanin pigments confer resistance to a number of stressful factors including those associated with climate warming. Furthermore, darker melanic individuals are commonly more aggressive than paler conspecifics, and hence they may better cope with competitive interactions due to invading species that expand their range in northern latitudes and at higher altitudes. To conclude, melanin may be a major component involved in adaptation to climate warming, and hence in animal populations melanin-based colouration is likely to change as an evolutionary or plastic response to climate warming.
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New data confirm that antidepressants have a global protective effect on the risk of suicide even if they very moderately and transiently increase suicide attempts, particularly in young people. We also present recent data about the following topics. (1) The main results of the STAR*D study, an outpatient study about depression treatment following a very complex algorithm. Nearly all the head to head comparisons between treatments showed a lack of significant difference, and the rates of clinical remission for patients non responders to their first two treatments were low. (2) The reintroduction of sertindole, an atypical antipsychotic: cardiac monitoring is necessary, but should not prevent its use as a second line drug. (3) The potential efficacy of dawn simulation and high density negative air ionization in seasonal depression.
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Background: New ways of representing diffusion data emerged recently and achieved to create structural connectivitymaps in healthy brains (Hagmann P et al. (2008)). These maps have the capacity to study alterations over the entire brain at the connection and network level. This is of high interest in complex disconnection diseases like schizophrenia. In this Pathology where multiple lines of evidence suggest the association of the pathology with abnormalities in neural circuitry and impaired structural connectivity, the diffusion imaging has been widely applied. Despite the large findings, most of the research using the diffusion just uses some scalar map derived from diffusion to show that some markers of white matter integrity are diminished in several areas of the brain (Kyriakopoulos M et al (2008)). Thanks to the structural connectionmatrix constructed by the whole brain tractography, we report in this work the network connectivity alterations in the schizophrenic patients. Methods: We investigated 13 schizophrenic patients as assessed by the DIGS (Diagnostic Interview for genetic studies, DSM IV criteria) and 13 healthy controls. We have got from each volunteer a DT-MRI as well as Qball imaging dataset and a high resolution anatomic T1 performed during the same session; with a 3 T clinical MRI scanner. The controls were matched on age, gender, handedness, and parental social economic-status. For all the subjects, a low resolution connection matrix is obtained by dividing the cortex into 66 gyral based ROIs. A higher resolution matrix is constructed using 250 ROIs as described in Hagmann P et al. (2008). These ROIs are respectively used jointly with the diffusion tractography to construct the high and low resolution densities connection matrices for each subject. In a first step the matrices of the groups are compared in term of connectivity, and not in term of density to check if the pathological group shows a loss of global connectivity. In this context the density connection matrices were binarized. As some local connectivity changes were also suspected, especially in frontal and temporal areas, we have also looked for the areas where the connectivity showed significant changes. Results: The statistical analysis revealed a significant loss of global connectivity in the schizophrenic's brains at level 5%. Furthermore, by constructing specific statistics which represent local connectivity within the anatomical regions (66 ROIs) using the data obtained by the finest resolution (250 ROIs) to improve the robustness, we found the regions that cause this significant loss of connectivity. The significance is observed after multiple testing corrections by the False Discovery Rate. Discussion: The detected regions are almost the same as those reported in the literature as the involved regions in schizophrenia. Most of the connectivity decreases are noted in both hemispheres in the fronto-frontal and temporo-temporal regions as well as some temporal ROIs with their adjacent ROIs in parietal and occipital lobes.
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Identifying adaptive genetic variation is a challenging task, in particular in non-model species for which genomic information is still limited or absent. Here, we studied distribution patterns of amplified fragment length polymorphisms (AFLPs) in response to environmental variation, in 13 alpine plant species consistently sampled across the entire European Alps. Multiple linear regressions were performed between AFLP allele frequencies per site as dependent variables and two categories of independent variables, namely Moran's eigenvector map MEM variables (to account for spatial and unaccounted environmental variation, and historical demographic processes) and environmental variables. These associations allowed the identification of 153 loci of ecological relevance. Univariate regressions between allele frequency and each environmental factor further showed that loci of ecological relevance were mainly correlated with MEM variables. We found that precipitation and temperature were the best environmental predictors, whereas topographic factors were rarely involved in environmental associations. Climatic factors, subject to rapid variation as a result of the current global warming, are known to strongly influence the fate of alpine plants. Our study shows, for the first time for a large number of species, that the same environmental variables are drivers of plant adaptation at the scale of a whole biome, here the European Alps.
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A scientific challenge is to assess the role of Deccan volcanism in the Cretaceous-Tertiary boundary (KTB) mass extinction. Here we report on the stratigraphy and biologic effects of Deccan volcanism in eleven deep wells from the Krishna-Godavari (K-G) Basin, Andhra Pradesh, India. In these wells, two phases of Deccan volcanism record the world's largest and longest lava mega-flows interbedded in marine sediments in the K-G Basin about 1500 km from the main Deccan volcanic province. The main phase-2 eruptions (similar to 80% of total Deccan Traps) began in C29r and ended at or near the KTB, an interval that spans planktic foraminiferal zones CF1-CF2 and most of the nannofossil Micula prinsii zone, and is correlative with the rapid global warming and subsequent cooling near the end of the Maastrichtian. The mass extinction began in phase-2 preceding the first of four mega-flows. Planktic foraminifera suffered a 50% drop in species richness. Survivors suffered another 50% drop after the first mega-flow, leaving just 7 to 8 survivor species. No recovery occurred between the next three mega-flows and the mass extinction was complete with the last phase-2 mega-flow at the KTB. The mass extinction was likely the consequence of rapid and massive volcanic CO(2) and SO(2) gas emissions, leading to high continental weathering rates, global warming, cooling, acid rains, ocean acidification and a carbon crisis in the marine environment. Deccan volcanism phase-3 began in the early Danian near the C29R/C29n boundary correlative with the planktic foraminiferal zone P1a/P1b boundary and accounts for similar to 14% of the total volume of Deccan eruptions, including four of Earth's longest and largest mega-flows. No major faunal changes are observed in the intertrappeans of zone P1b, which suggests that environmental conditions remained tolerable, volcanic eruptions were less intense and/or separated by longer time intervals thus preventing runaway effects. Alternatively, early Danian assemblages evolved in adaptation to high-stress conditions in the aftermath of the mass extinction and therefore survived phase-3 volcanism. Full marine biotic recovery did not occur until after Deccan phase-3. These data suggest that the catastrophic effects of phase-2 Deccan volcanism upon the Cretaceous planktic foraminifera were a function of both the rapid and massive volcanic eruptions and the highly specialized faunal assemblages prone to extinction in a changing environment. Data from the K-G Basin indicates that Deccan phase-2 alone could have caused the KTB mass extinction and that impacts may have had secondary effects.
Resumo:
Summary Due to their conic shape and the reduction of area with increasing elevation, mountain ecosystems were early identified as potentially very sensitive to global warming. Moreover, mountain systems may experience unprecedented rates of warming during the next century, two or three times higher than that records of the 20th century. In this context, species distribution models (SDM) have become important tools for rapid assessment of the impact of accelerated land use and climate change on the distribution plant species. In my study, I developed and tested new predictor variables for species distribution models (SDM), specific to current and future geographic projections of plant species in a mountain system, using the Western Swiss Alps as model region. Since meso- and micro-topography are relevant to explain geographic patterns of plant species in mountain environments, I assessed the effect of scale on predictor variables and geographic projections of SDM. I also developed a methodological framework of space-for-time evaluation to test the robustness of SDM when projected in a future changing climate. Finally, I used a cellular automaton to run dynamic simulations of plant migration under climate change in a mountain landscape, including realistic distance of seed dispersal. Results of future projections for the 21st century were also discussed in perspective of vegetation changes monitored during the 20th century. Overall, I showed in this study that, based on the most severe A1 climate change scenario and realistic dispersal simulations of plant dispersal, species extinctions in the Western Swiss Alps could affect nearly one third (28.5%) of the 284 species modeled by 2100. With the less severe 61 scenario, only 4.6% of species are predicted to become extinct. However, even with B1, 54% (153 species) may still loose more than 80% of their initial surface. Results of monitoring of past vegetation changes suggested that plant species can react quickly to the warmer conditions as far as competition is low However, in subalpine grasslands, competition of already present species is probably important and limit establishment of newly arrived species. Results from future simulations also showed that heavy extinctions of alpine plants may start already in 2040, but the latest in 2080. My study also highlighted the importance of fine scale and regional. assessments of climate change impact on mountain vegetation, using more direct predictor variables. Indeed, predictions at the continental scale may fail to predict local refugees or local extinctions, as well as loss of connectivity between local populations. On the other hand, migrations of low-elevation species to higher altitude may be difficult to predict at the local scale. Résumé La forme conique des montagnes ainsi que la diminution de surface dans les hautes altitudes sont reconnues pour exposer plus sensiblement les écosystèmes de montagne au réchauffement global. En outre, les systèmes de montagne seront sans doute soumis durant le 21ème siècle à un réchauffement deux à trois fois plus rapide que celui mesuré durant le 20ème siècle. Dans ce contexte, les modèles prédictifs de distribution géographique de la végétation se sont imposés comme des outils puissants pour de rapides évaluations de l'impact des changements climatiques et de la transformation du paysage par l'homme sur la végétation. Dans mon étude, j'ai développé de nouvelles variables prédictives pour les modèles de distribution, spécifiques à la projection géographique présente et future des plantes dans un système de montagne, en utilisant les Préalpes vaudoises comme zone d'échantillonnage. La méso- et la microtopographie étant particulièrement adaptées pour expliquer les patrons de distribution géographique des plantes dans un environnement montagneux, j'ai testé les effets d'échelle sur les variables prédictives et sur les projections des modèles de distribution. J'ai aussi développé un cadre méthodologique pour tester la robustesse potentielle des modèles lors de projections pour le futur. Finalement, j'ai utilisé un automate cellulaire pour simuler de manière dynamique la migration future des plantes dans le paysage et dans quatre scénarios de changement climatique pour le 21ème siècle. J'ai intégré dans ces simulations des mécanismes et des distances plus réalistes de dispersion de graines. J'ai pu montrer, avec les simulations les plus réalistes, que près du tiers des 284 espèces considérées (28.5%) pourraient être menacées d'extinction en 2100 dans le cas du plus sévère scénario de changement climatique A1. Pour le moins sévère des scénarios B1, seulement 4.6% des espèces sont menacées d'extinctions, mais 54% (153 espèces) risquent de perdre plus 80% de leur habitat initial. Les résultats de monitoring des changements de végétation dans le passé montrent que les plantes peuvent réagir rapidement au réchauffement climatique si la compétition est faible. Dans les prairies subalpines, les espèces déjà présentes limitent certainement l'arrivée de nouvelles espèces par effet de compétition. Les résultats de simulation pour le futur prédisent le début d'extinctions massives dans les Préalpes à partir de 2040, au plus tard en 2080. Mon travail démontre aussi l'importance d'études régionales à échelle fine pour évaluer l'impact des changements climatiques sur la végétation, en intégrant des variables plus directes. En effet, les études à échelle continentale ne tiennent pas compte des micro-refuges, des extinctions locales ni des pertes de connectivité entre populations locales. Malgré cela, la migration des plantes de basses altitudes reste difficile à prédire à l'échelle locale sans modélisation plus globale.
Resumo:
The objective of this study was to simulate potato (Solanum tuberosum) tuber yield in different climate change scenarios of increased carbon dioxide concentration [CO2] and air temperature, considering symmetric and asymmetric increases in minimum and maximum daily air temperatures. Spitters model was used to simulate Asterix cultivar tuber yield considering two growing seasons (spring and fall) recommended for Santa Maria, state of Rio Grande do Sul, Brazil. In each growing season, five planting dates were evaluated in climate scenarios of a hundred years with no increase in [CO2] and temperature (current scenario), and in scenarios with doubling [CO2] and temperature increases of 0, 1, 2, 3, 4, 5 and 6ºC. A symmetric increase of 4ºC and an asymmetric increase of 5ºC in air temperature offset the yield beneficial effect of increasing [CO2] during spring, whereas increase in air temperature does not affect potato tuber yield during fall. Anticipating planting date in spring and delaying it in fall decrease the negative impact of the increasing air temperature on potato tuber yield.
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The objective of this work was to evaluate a generalized response function to the atmospheric CO2 concentration [f(CO2)] by the radiation use efficiency (RUE) in rice. Experimental data on RUE at different CO2 concentrations were collected from rice trials performed in several locations around the world. RUE data were then normalized, so that all RUE at current CO2 concentration were equal to 1. The response function was obtained by fitting normalized RUE versus CO2 concentration to a Morgan-Mercer-Flodin (MMF) function, and by using Marquardt's method to estimate the model coefficients. Goodness of fit was measured by the standard deviation of the estimated coefficients, the coefficient of determination (R²), and the root mean square error (RMSE). The f(CO2) describes a nonlinear sigmoidal response of RUE in rice, in function of the atmospheric CO2 concentration, which has an ecophysiological background, and, therefore, renders a robust function that can be easily coupled to rice simulation models, besides covering the range of CO2 emissions for the next generation of climate scenarios for the 21st century.
Resumo:
Kiihtyvän kasvihuoneilmiön aiheuttama ilmaston lämpeneminen on modernin yhteiskunnan suurimpia haasteita. Ympäristöteknologian tavoitteena on hidastaa tämän ilmiön haitallisia vaikutuksia maailmanlaajuisesti, kansallisesti sekäkunnallisella tasolla. Tässä työssä on selvitetty, kuinka kunnallinen kasvihuonekaasupäästölaskenta toteutetaan ja voidaanko siitä saada luotettavia tuloksia. Lisäksi tulosten pohjalta on laadittu kunnallinen kasvihuonekaasupäästöjen kehitysennuste sekä toimenpide-ehdotus päästöjen leikkaamiseksi. Esimerkkikuntana on Lappeenrannan kaupunki ja päästölaskenta on kohdistettu vuoteen 2004. Lappeenrannan kaupungin alueen kasvihuonekaasupäästöt vuonna 2004 olivat 1 156 500 tonnia hiilidioksidiekvivalenttia. Alueen luonnon nieluvaikutus oli 23 500 tonnia hiilidioksidiekvivalenttia. Laskennassa käytetty aineisto, eli yritysten ja kunnallisten toimintojen päästö- ja polttoainetiedot, saatiin kirjallisuudesta, virallislähteistä sekä henkilökohtaisina tiedonantoina. Laskentaohjelmistona käytettiin Suomen Kuntaliiton kehittämää Excel-pohjaista kasvihuonekaasu-ja energiataseohjelmisto KASVENER:ia. Työssä on osoitettu, että kasvihuonekaasupäästölaskennan tarkkuus ja onnistuminen ovat riippuvaisia käytettävissä olevista resursseista, ennen kaikkea laskennan lähtötietojen laajuudesta ja tarkkuudesta. Laskentatuloksista selviää, että esimerkkikunnan kasvihuonekaasupäästöt ovat kasvaneet Suomen keskiarvoa vastaavalla tavalla. Toimenpide-ehdotuksia listatessa kävi lisäksi ilmi, että kasvihuonekaasupäästöjen leikkaaminen on melko helppoa olemassa olevalla teknologialla tiettyyn pisteeseen asti. Isompien tavoitteiden saavuttaminen edellyttää laajamittaisia investointeja ja kunnan infrastruktuurin muuttamista.
Resumo:
Despite global environmental governance has traditionally couched global warming in terms of annual CO2 emissions (a flow), global mean temperature is actually determined by cumulative CO2 emissions in the atmosphere (a stock). Thanks to advances of scientific community, nowadays it is possible to quantify the \global carbon budget", that is, the amount of available cumulative CO2 emissions before crossing the 2oC threshold (Meinshausen et al., 2009). The current approach proposes to analyze the allocation of such global carbon budget among countries as a classical conflicting claims problem (O'Neill, 1982). Based on some appealing principles, it is proposed an efficient and sustainable allocation of the available carbon budget from 2000 to 2050 taking into account different environmental risk scenarios. Keywords: Carbon budget, Conflicting claims problem, Distribution, Climate change. JEL classification: C79, D71, D74, H41, H87, Q50, Q54, Q58.
Resumo:
Työn päätavoite on tutkia vihreän sähkön ja sertifikaattien kaupan ja EY:n uusien ilmastonmuutosta koskevien direktiivien ja direktiiviehdotusten välisiä yhteyksiä. Tutkimuksessa käsitellään direktiiviä sähköntuotannosta uusiutuvilla energialähteillä ja direktiiviehdotuksia Euroopan Unionin alueen päästökaupasta sekä yhdistetyn sähkön ja lämmön tuotannon lisäämisestä. Työ keskittyy erään suomalaisen metsäteollisuusyrityksen toimiin ilmastonmuutoksen hidastamiseksi. Tutkimus keskittyy pääosin EU:n suunnitelmaan aloittaa Unionin jäsenvaltioiden välinen päästökauppa, koska tämä järjestelmä tulee toteutuessaan olemaan teollisuuden kannalta merkittävä. Tilannetta on analysoitu neljän sellu- ja paperitehtaan hiilidioksidipäästölaskelmien avulla. Työssä kehitettyjä laskumalleja voidaan käyttää avuksi yhtiön muilla tehtailla. Tämän lisäksi työssä on luotu malli energiainvestointien arvioimiseksi tulevaisuudessa ottamalla päästöoikeuden hinnan vaikutus huomioon. Päästökaupan vaikutukset pohjoismaisilla vapautuneilla sähkömarkkinoilla on analysoity, koska teollinen sähkönhankinta on suuresti riippuvainen tästä markkinasta. Suomen metsäteollisuuden oma yhdistetty sähkön ja lämmön tuotanto erityisesti uusiutuvista energialähteistä tulee olemaan entistäkin tärkeämpää tiukentuvassa toimintaympäristössä. Tällä hetkellä on käynnissä kokeilu lisäarvon saamiseksi omalle sähköntuotannolle. Tällä haetaan kokemuksia ja valmiutta tulevaa päästökauppaa varten.
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As a result of climate change, streams are warming and their runoff has been decreasing in most temperate areas. These changes can affect consumers directly by increasing their metabolic rates and modifying their physiology and indirectly by changing the quality of the resources on which organisms depend. In this study, a common stream detritivore (Echinogammarus berilloni Catta) was reared at two temperatures (15 and 20°C) and fed Populus nigra L. leaves that had been conditioned either in an intermittent or permanent reach to evaluate the effects of resource quality and increased temperatures on detritivore performance, stoichiometry and nutrient cycling. The lower quality (i.e., lower protein, soluble carbohydrates and higher C:P and N:P ratios) of leaves conditioned in pools resulted in compensatory feeding and lower nutrient retention capacity by E. berilloni. This effect was especially marked for phosphorus, which was unexpected based on predictions of ecological stoichiometry. When individuals were fed pool-conditioned leaves at warmer temperatures, their growth rates were higher, but consumers exhibited less efficient assimilation and higher mortality. Furthermore, the shifts to lower C:P ratios and higher lipid concentrations in shredder body tissues suggest that structural molecules such as phospholipids are preserved over other energetic C-rich macromolecules such as carbohydrates. These effects on consumer physiology and metabolism were further translated into feces and excreta nutrient ratios. Overall, our results show that the effects of reduced leaf quality on detritivore nutrient retention were more severe at higher temperatures because the shredders were not able to offset their increased metabolism with increased consumption or more efficient digestion when fed pool-conditioned leaves. Consequently, the synergistic effects of impaired food quality and increased temperatures might not only affect the physiology and survival of detritivores but also extend to other trophic compartments through detritivore-mediated nutrient cycling.