A válság mint negatív információ és bizonytalansági tényező. A válság hatása az egy részvényre jutó nyereség-előrejelzésekre (The financial crisis as negative information and a factor of uncertainty. Analysing the EPS forecasting error in Hungary and Austria)

A szerző a 2008-ban kezdődött gazdasági világválság hatását vizsgálja az egy részvényre jutó nyereség előrejelzésének hibájára. Számos publikáció bizonyította, hogy az elemzők a tényértékeknél szisztematikusan kedvezőbb tervértéket adnak meg az egy részvényre jutó előrejelzéseikben. Más vizsgálatok azt igazolták, hogy az egy részvényre jutó előrejelzési hiba bizonytalan környezetben növekszik, míg arra is számos bizonyítékot lehet találni, hogy a negatív hírek hatását az elemzők alulsúlyozzák. A gazdasági világválság miatt az elemzőknek számtalan negatív hírt kellett figyelembe venniük az előrejelzések készítésekor, továbbá a válság az egész gazdaságban jelentősen növelte a bizonytalanságot. A szerző azt vizsgálja, hogy miként hatott a gazdasági világválság az egy részvényre jutó nyereség- előrejelzés hibájára, megkülönböztetve azt az időszakot, amíg a válság negatív hír volt, attól, amikor már hatásaként jelentősen megnőtt a bizonytalanság. _____ The author investigated the impact of the financial crisis that started in 2008 on the forecasting error for earnings per share. There is plentiful evidence from the 1980s that analysts give systematically more favourable values in their earnings per share (EPS) forecasts than reality, i.e. they are generally optimistic. Other investigations have supported the idea that the EPS forecasting error is greater under uncertain environmental circumstances, while other researchers prove that the analysts under-react to the negative information in their forecasts. The financial crisis brought a myriad of negative information for analysts to consider in such forecasts, while also increasing the level of uncertainty for the entire economy. The article investigates the impact of the financial crisis on the EPS forecasting error, distinguishing the period when the crisis gave merely negative information, from the one when its effect of uncertainty was significantly increased over the entire economy.

The Philippines in the Electronics & Electrical Global Value Chain

This report uses the Duke CGGC global value chain (GVC) framework to examine the role of the Philippines in the global electronics & electrical (E&E) industry and identify opportunities to upgrade. Electronics and electrical equipment have played an important role in the Philippine economy since the 1970s and form the foundation of the country’s export basket today. In 2014, these sectors accounted for 47% of total exports from the Philippines at US$28.8 billion, of which 41% was from electronics, and 6% from electrical products. From a global perspective, while the Philippines is not the leading exporter in any particular product category, it is known for its significant number of semiconductor assembly and test (A&T) facilities. The global economic crisis (2008-09), combined with the exit of Intel (2009), had a significant negative impact on electronics exports and, although steadily increasing, they have not yet rebounded to pre-crisis levels. Nonetheless, investment in the E&E industries has picked up since 2010; in the past five years, there have been 110 new investments in these sectors. Another positive sign is the low exit rate; with the exception of Intel, companies that have invested in the Philippines have stayed, with several operations dating back to the late 1970s and 1980s. These firms have not only stayed, but have continued to grow and expand in the country due to the quality of the workforce and satisfaction with the Philippine Economic Zone Authority (PEZA) environment. The growth of the industry has significantly benefited from foreign investment and close ties with Japanese firms.

Ireland and the global economic crisis: one island, two different experiences

In this chapter, Ó hAdhmaill argues that responses to the global economic crisis which emerged in 2008 reflected a dominant ideological discourse, with ‘austerity’ being a tool in a wider agenda to reassert neoliberalist thinking in the global economy and welfare provision in the richer countries. In Ireland, North and South, however, the experience of, and responses to, the crisis and ‘austerity’ were different, reflecting different social, economic, and political contexts and influences, as well as different levels of democratic control. Ó hAdhmaill outlines some of these differences and argues that, while democratic control in smaller jurisdictions may be limited by the ‘real rulers’ of the world, global capital, people still have ‘agency’ and do not have to be mere passive observers of unfolding events.

International Capital Flows and Monetary Policy Spillovers

This dissertation examines the drivers and implications of international capital flows. The overarching motivation is the observation that countries not at the centre of global financial markets are subject to considerable spillovers from centre countries, notably from their monetary policy. I present new empirical evidence on the determinants of the observed patterns of international capital flows and monetary policy spillovers, and study their effect on both financial markets and the real economy. In Chapter 2 I provide evidence on the determinants of a puzzling negative correlation observed between productivity growth and net capital inflows to developing and emerging market economies (EMEs) since 1980. By disaggregating net capital inflows into their gross components, I show that this negative correlation is explained by capital outflows related to purchases of very liquid assets from the fastest growing countries. My results suggest a desire for international portfolio diversification in liquid assets by fast growing countries is driving much of the original puzzle. In the reminder of my dissertation I pivot to study the foreign characteristics that drive international capital flows and monetary policy spillovers, with a particular focus on the role of unconventional monetary policy in the United States (U.S.). In Chapter 3 I show that a significant portion of the heterogeneity in EMEs' asset price adjustment following the quantitative easing operations by the Federal Reserve (the Fed) during 2008-2014 can be explained by the degree of bilateral capital market frictions between these countries and the U.S. This is true even after accounting for capital controls, exchange rate regimes, and domestic monetary policies. Chapter 4, co-authored with Michal Ksawery Popiel, studies unconventional monetary policy in a small open economy, looking specifically at the case of Canada since the global financial crisis. We quantify the effect Canadian unconventional monetary policy shocks had on the real economy, while carefully controlling for and quantifying spillovers from U.S. unconventional monetary policy. Our results indicate that the Bank of Canada's unconventional monetary policy increased Canadian output significantly from 2009-2010, but that spillovers from the Fed's policy were even more important for increasing Canadian output after 2008.

Temporary contracts and non-protected employment in Argentina, Chile and Perú: incidence and determinants

The diverse kinds of legal temporary contracts and the employment forms that do not comply with legal requirements both facilitate employment adjustment to firms´ requirements and entail labour cost reductions. Their employment incidence depends not only on the economic and labour market evolutions but also on other factors, in particular the historical trajectories followed by labour legislation, state enforcement, and the degree of compliance. To contribute to the understanding of the determinants of the degree of utilization of different employment practices, the study reported in this article explores the use made of the various legal temporary contracts and of precarious employment relationships by private enterprises in three Latin American countries (Argentina, Chile and Peru) during 2003-2012, a period of economic growth, and the explanatory role of diverse factors.

Post-Crisis Belarus: Marxism and the Lender of Last Resort

Existing literature has examined the predictions and proscriptions of Karl Marx in response to the 2008 global financial crisis. However, the suggestions put forth by the Marxist-leaning literature never took hold and state-level banking and finance policies have remained largely unchanged. While many criticisms of Marxism exist, this paper examines Belarus, a ‘neo-communist’ or ‘market-socialist’ state, to provide a new perspective on the continuation of capitalism in the United States and Europe. In the case of Belarus, the International Monetary Fund and the Eurasian Economic Community's Anti-Crisis Fund provided both the critical liquidity needed to temporarily quell the effects of the financial crisis. Their demands meant that Belarus agreed to speed its move away from the Soviet-era finance and banking policies and more towards its western capitalist neighbors. Its failure to implement these policies further hurt its recovery. Examining Belarus' path to and out of its financial crisis makes apparent that the role of the international lender of last resort (LOLR). The LOLR acts as a key element in protecting states embroiled in the financial crisis from facing the possibility of making the difficult policy changes put forth by the Marxist literature. By ignoring its promises under the loan conditions from its LOLRs, Belarus moved further from the recovery promised by the Marxist suggestions.

Establishing continental sovereignty in Africa: risk and opportunity in financial integration - lessons for Africa from a legal perspective

This thesis identifies and defines the new African sovereignty. It establishes a modern sovereignty in Africa hatched from the changing nature of sovereignty in which countries come together at various levels or grades of partial surrender of national sovereignty in order to work closer together for their mutual advantage and benefit. To this end, the narrative zooms in on the central issues within the realms of money matters whereby a new model of monetary sovereignty and monetary solutions is designed in an attempt to ease the recurring tensions and challenges of modern national sovereignty in the continent of Africa. As such, this discussion will offer a historical journey through the constitution of sovereignty, to the birth of the nation state and international public law. It develops the theory of the changing nature of sovereignty within the modern state and opens new lines of inquiry for Africa. In this regard, it draws from juxtaposing and mixing elements of regional and global financial integration as well as retaining national financial sovereignty features to form this new design which I dub continental sovereignty. At its core, the thesis will deal with the legal aspects that stem from the co-mingling of legal systems of nation states and communities at the regional and global levels within the context of financial integration. The argument is that the rule of law remains sacrosanct in monetary management. Effective financial integration is the result of properly structured and managed legal frameworks with robust laws and institutions whether at a national, regional or global level. However, the thesis reveals that in order to avoid undermining the progress of Africa’s financial integration project, any solution for Africa must be immersed within a broader global solution where development issues are addressed and resolved and Africa can form a more central part in all relevant international discussion fora. The work will expound these issues by applying them within a regional and global context, with the state of affairs in Africa forming the nucleus. This application consequently presents the six key themes of the thesis which will be considered therein. They are: a.) regional advantage: which exploits the possibilities of deeper and further financial integration between smaller communal arrangements; b.) regional risk and exposure: the extent to which this deeper form of financial integration can spiral out of control if effected too quickly and too ambitiously; c.) global advantage: which considers the merits of global financial integration and the influence exerted by financial laws on the global financial architecture; d.) global risk and exposure: which considers the challenges of global financial integration especially within the background of the Global Financial Crisis 2007-2008; e.) African challenge: which considers the extent to which this analysis impacts the African economic and financial integration agenda; and f.) development challenge: which examines the extent to which global development issues impact the African solution (continental sovereignty) and the need for any solution for the continent to be roped into a broader global solution within which Africa can form an important part. Even though the thesis requests an optimistic undertone on the progress made so far, it unearths the African problem of multiple national sovereignty and multiple overlapping regional sovereignty constituted as the ‘spaghetti bowl’ dilemma. As such, the unique contribution to knowledge on financial integration in Africa can be echoed in these words: Africa‘s financial integration agenda has had little success in authenticating a systematic and dependable legal framework for monetary management. Efforts made have been incomplete, substandard, and not carefully followed through particularly reflected in the impuissant nature of the judicial enforcement mechanisms. Thus, the thesis argues that, any meaningful answer to the problems dogging the continent is inter alia deeply entrenched within a new form of cooperative monetary sovereignty. In other words, the thesis does not prescribe the creation of new laws; rather it advocates the effective enforcement of existing laws.

Superando la crisis financiera global: una visión general de la experiencia canadiense

The first signs of a collapse in the U.S. mortgages market have proven to be more than the tip of the iceberg of unclear practices and financial products that leaded to the current economic crisis. In present-day time, when survey efforts and financial reforms are taking place, it sounds reasonable to explore the impact of the financial crisis on the Canadian economy, as it has been decidedly different from the American experience. It seems that Canadian financial systems have been largely distant from much of the financial storm. This document maintains that Canadian economic resistance is mainly attributable to a more conservative controlling environment, which minimized much of the questionable performance that drove out the world to the edge of financial crisis. Though it is not an exhaustive revision, this paper outlines the impacts of the economic crisis in Canada and highlights the basic factors that contributed to the Canadian experience.

Foreign direct investment determinants revisited in the context of global value chains

In this paper, we aim at contributing to the new field of research that intends to bring up-to-date the tools and statistics currently used to look to the current reality given by Global Value Chains (GVC) in international trade and Foreign Direct Investment (FDI). Namely, we make use of the most recent data published by the World Input-Output Database to suggest indicators to measure the participation and net gains of countries by being a part of GVC; and use those indicators in a pooled-regression model to estimate determinants of FDI stocks in Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD)-member countries. We conclude that one of the measures proposed proves to be statistically significant in explaining the bilateral stock of FDI in OECD countries, meaning that the higher the transnational income generated between two given countries by GVC, taken as a proxy to the participation of those countries in GVC, the higher one could expect the FDI entering those countries to be. The regression also shows the negative impact of the global financial crisis that started in 2009 in the world’s bilateral FDI stocks and, additionally, the particular and significant role played by the People’s Republic of China in determining these stocks.

LA CRISIS FINANCIERA: ¿ESTAFA, MALA GESTIÓN EMPRESARIAL, MAL MANEJO MACROECONÓMICO O UNA FALTA DE REGULACIONES? DE NUEVO LAS ENSEÑANZAS

Resumen La intensificación de la crisis a nivel global, luego de la bancarrota de Lehman Brothers en septiembre del 2008, ha provocado que el actual entorno económico y financiero sea complicado para la economía mundial, el sector financiero a nivel global y para los bancos centrales. La actual crisis deriva de muchas causas; no obstante las principales son tres: primero, aspectos macroeconómicos; segundo, la inadecuada regulación de los entes encargados, y tercero, los reguladores estimularon el rápido crecimiento de los derivados en el mercado OTC. Abstract The amplification of the global financial crisis, following the bankruptcy of Lehman Brothers in September 2008, has made the present economic and financial environment a not easy time for the world economy, the global financial system and for central banks. There are many causes from the recent financial crisis. Main could be three. First, there were macroeconomic components. Second, the inadequate oversight/regulation provided by financial market regulators. And third, federal regulators have actively encouraged the rapid growth of over-the-counter (OTC) derivatives and securities by all types of financial institutions.

Annual Report 2008-2009

This annual report highlights the year in review, legislation passed, department and division listings, financial statements, and summaries.

2008-2009 Annual Report

This annual report highlights students' achievements, accomplishments for the year, student profiles, budget and financial matters and a list of donors.

La disrupción: el punto de partida de la resiliencia o del fracaso empresarial (reflexiones desde la ingeniería)

La perdurabilidad empresarial ha sido un tema recurrente en la literatura sobre dirección de empresas. A pesar de los avances, la liquidación de las empresas aumenta permanentemente. Buscando alternativas de mejora se estudia el caso de dos empresas cuadragenarias dedicadas a prestar servicios de consultoría en ingeniería eléctrica y civil que, en condiciones de crisis, implementaron acciones que les permitieron, no sólo mantenerse en el mercado sino también fortalecer su estructura financiera. Los resultados demostraron que un enfoque equilibrado caracterizado por la toma oportuna de decisiones y la definición e implementación de estrategias de negocio efectivas constituyen herramientas óptimas para asegurar un mayor grado de resiliencia empresarial.

Crise financeira, energia e sustentabilidade no Brasil

A recente crise financeira global traz consigo efeitos como a redução da atividade econômica e, consequentemente, do consumo de energia. Essa pode ser uma importante oportunidade para reorganizar o sistema energético em bases mais sólidas e sustentáveis: a eficiência, a maior participação das fontes renováveis e a descentralização da produção de energia. O Brasil e outros países em desenvolvimento podem aproveitar a experiência dos países desenvolvidos em eficiência energética, complementando com um programa vigoroso em energias renováveis, particularmente as "modernas" (eólica, solar, biomassa e pequenas hidrelétricas). Entretanto, preocupa o cenário inercial nacional, baseado num aumento da participação das fontes fósseis de energia na matriz, na priorização dos recursos à exploração de petróleo e gás natural e na manutenção de padrões insustentáveis de produção e consumo.

Autopercepção da saúde bucal em idosos e fatores associados em Campinas, SP, 2008-2009

OBJETIVO: Descrever a autopercepção de saúde bucal em idosos e analisar fatores sociodemográficos e clínicos associados. MÉTODOS: Estudo transversal com 876 participantes em amostra representativa de idosos (65 anos ou mais) de Campinas, SP, em 2008-2009. Os exames odontológicos seguiram critérios padronizados pela Organização Mundial da Saúde para levantamentos epidemiológicos de saúde bucal. A autopercepção da saúde bucal foi avaliada pelo índice Geriatric Oral Health Assessment Index (GOHAI). Os indivíduos foram classificados segundo características sociodemográficas, odontológicas e prevalência de fragilidade biológica. O estudo de associações utilizou análise de regressão de Poisson; a análise considerou os pesos amostrais e a estrutura complexa da amostra por conglomerados. RESULTADOS: A média de idade dos indivíduos foi de 72,8 anos; 70,1% eram mulheres. A proporção de indivíduos com mais de 20 dentes presentes foi 17,2%; 38,2% usavam prótese dentária total em ambos os arcos; 8,5% necessitavam desse recurso em ao menos um arco dentário. Em média, o índice GOHAI foi elevado: 33,9 (máximo possível 36,0). Manter 20 dentes ou mais, usar prótese total nos dois arcos, não necessitar desse tratamento, não apresentar alterações de mucosa oral e não apresentar fragilidade biológica foram os fatores significantemente associados com melhor autopercepção de saúde bucal (p < 0,05). CONCLUSÕES: A avaliação de autopercepção em saúde bucal permitiu identificar os principais fatores associados a esse desfecho. Esse instrumento pode contribuir para o planejamento de serviços odontológicos, orientando estratégias de promoção em saúde voltadas à melhora da qualidade de vida das pessoas desse grupo etário.