Model inter-comparison between statistical and dynamic model assessments of the long-term stability of blanket peat in Great Britain (1940-2099)

We compared output from 3 dynamic process-based models (DMs: ECOSSE, MILLENNIA and the Durham Carbon Model) and 9 bioclimatic envelope models (BCEMs; including BBOG ensemble and PEATSTASH) ranging from simple threshold to semi-process-based models. Model simulations were run at 4 British peatland sites using historical climate data and climate projections under a medium (A1B) emissions scenario from the 11-RCM (regional climate model) ensemble underpinning UKCP09. The models showed that blanket peatlands are vulnerable to projected climate change; however, predictions varied between models as well as between sites. All BCEMs predicted a shift from presence to absence of a climate associated with blanket peat, where the sites with the lowest total annual precipitation were closest to the presence/absence threshold. DMs showed a more variable response. ECOSSE predicted a decline in net C sink and shift to net C source by the end of this century. The Durham Carbon Model predicted a smaller decline in the net C sink strength, but no shift to net C source. MILLENNIA predicted a slight overall increase in the net C sink. In contrast to the BCEM projections, the DMs predicted that the sites with coolest temperatures and greatest total annual precipitation showed the largest change in carbon sinks. In this model inter-comparison, the greatest variation in model output in response to climate change projections was not between the BCEMs and DMs but between the DMs themselves, because of different approaches to modelling soil organic matter pools and decomposition amongst other processes. The difference in the sign of the response has major implications for future climate feedbacks, climate policy and peatland management. Enhanced data collection, in particular monitoring peatland response to current change, would significantly improve model development and projections of future change.

Cyclic loss of open solar flux since 1868: the link to heliospheric current sheet tilt and implications for the Maunder Minimum

Open solar flux (OSF) variations can be described by the imbalance between source and loss terms. We use spacecraft and geomagnetic observations of OSF from 1868 to present and assume the OSF source, S, varies with the observed sunspot number, R. Computing the required fractional OSF loss, χ, reveals a clear solar cycle variation, in approximate phase with R. While peak R varies significantly from cycle to cycle, χ is surprisingly constant in both amplitude and waveform. Comparisons of χ with measures of heliospheric current sheet (HCS) orientation reveal a strong correlation. The cyclic nature of χ is exploited to reconstruct OSF back to the start of sunspot records in 1610. This agrees well with the available spacecraft, geomagnetic, and cosmogenic isotope observations. Assuming S is proportional to R yields near-zero OSF throughout the Maunder Minimum. However, χ becomes negative during periods of low R, particularly the most recent solar minimum, meaning OSF production is underestimated. This is related to continued coronal mass ejection (CME) activity, and therefore OSF production, throughout solar minimum, despite R falling to zero. Correcting S for this produces a better match to the recent solar minimum OSF observations. It also results in a cycling, nonzero OSF during the Maunder Minimum, in agreement with cosmogenic isotope observations. These results suggest that during the Maunder Minimum, HCS tilt cycled as over recent solar cycles, and the CME rate was roughly constant at the levels measured during the most recent two solar minima.

Bicorrelations and cross-bicorrelations as non-linearity tests and tools for exchange rate forecasting

This paper proposes and implements a new methodology for forecasting time series, based on bicorrelations and cross-bicorrelations. It is shown that the forecasting technique arises as a natural extension of, and as a complement to, existing univariate and multivariate non-linearity tests. The formulations are essentially modified autoregressive or vector autoregressive models respectively, which can be estimated using ordinary least squares. The techniques are applied to a set of high-frequency exchange rate returns, and their out-of-sample forecasting performance is compared to that of other time series models

Bereden (beredskaps)väg för kvinnorna Lärarinneförbundet i krigets skugga. : En studie i folkskollärarinnornas fackliga och politiska aktivitet under be-redskapsåren 1940-1945

Denna studies syfte är att försöka kartlägga folkskollärarinnornas fackliga och politiska akti-vitet under andra världskrigets beredskapsår i Sverige, samt belysa flera av de problem 40-talets kvinnoorganisationer stod inför. Det empiriska matrealet har i huvudsak bestått av utvalda artiklar, annonser och notiser i folk-skollärarinnornas fackliga tidningsorgan Lärarinneförbundet (LF). Resultatet presenteras te-matiskt samt i tabellform. De kvinnliga folkskollärarnas ambition under beredskapsåren var att förbereda en evig världs-fred, misstagen från första världskriget fick inte upprepas. Då var de, så att säga, tagna på sängen vid krigsutbrottet. Denna gång var de förberedda och inte minst, redan organiserade. Bereden väg för Herran har i denna studie, i jämställdhetens namn ändrats till Bereden väg för Kvinnan, med tanke på att dessa fackligt aktiva pionjärkvinnor i mångt och mycket, be-redde väg för kommande generationer av yrkeskvinnor

Search for Heavy Neutrinos and W-R Bosons with Right-Handed Couplings in a Left-Right Symmetric Model in pp Collisions at root s=7 TeV

Conselho Nacional de Desenvolvimento Científico e Tecnológico (CNPq)

Políticas de población y atribuciones de la mujer en la Argentina de 1940: la realidad en disonancia con la teoría

Incluye Bibliografía

México: evolución de la frontera norte, 1940-1986

Incluye Bibliografía

Search for Top Squarks in R-Parity-Violating Supersymmetry Using Three or More Leptons and b-Tagged Jets

Conselho Nacional de Desenvolvimento Científico e Tecnológico (CNPq)

Measurement of the ratio of inclusive jet cross sections using the anti-k(T) algorithm with radius parameters R=0.5 and 0.7 in pp collisions at root s=7 TeV

Conselho Nacional de Desenvolvimento Científico e Tecnológico (CNPq)

Cytogenic Evidence for the Specific Distinction of an Alaskan Marmot, Marmota broweri Hall and Gilmore (Mammalia: Sciuridae)

Cytogenetic studies based upon somatic cells (bone marrow) have disclosed that the marmot hitherto designated Marmota caligata broweri Hall and Gilmore, occurring in the Brooks Range of Arctic Alaska, differs from M. c. caligata (Eschscholtz) in number of chromosomes (2n=36 as compared with 2n=42 in M. caligata) and in proportions of chromosomal types. Typical karyograms for the two species are presented. It is concluded that the Brooks Range marmot is specifically distinct from M. caligata, the applicable name being Marmota broweri Hall and Gilmore. Also determined were diploid chromosome numbers for two other Nearctic species of marmots, M. flaviventris (Audubon and Bachman), with 42, and M. olympus (Merriam), with 40. It is suggested that M. broweri survived the last (Wisconsin) glaciations in the amphi-Beringian refugium, and that its closest affinities may be with one of the Eurasian species of Marmota.

The Somatic Chromosomes of Some North American Marmots (Sciuridae), with Remarks on the Relationships of Marmota browerii Hall and Gilmore

Karyotypes are defined for two nearctic species of marmots, Marmota olympus (2n = 40) and M. vancouverensis (2n = 42), and supplemental information is included on the karyotypes of M. flaviventris, M. monax ochracea, and M. marmota. The six North American species of Marmota (NF = 66) comprise a distinct group as compared with the middle Asian species (NF = 70) for which the karyotypes are known. Karyologic findings and zoogeographic evidence based upon the distribution of two nearctic species of host-specific cestodes indicate that M. broweri, in northern Alaska, is a pre-Würm relict. Its affinities appear to be with the North American caligata-group rather than with the northeastern Siberian M. camtschatica. The occurrence on M. broweri of the Asian flea, Oropsylla silantiewi, has not been explained. Some ecological and behavioral characteristics of M. broweri are briefly described and compared with those of other species. Family groups of M. broweri hibernate together in single winter dens that are plugged at the entrance; copulation takes place before the animals emerge from the winter den, near mid-May; face-glands are utilized in marking of territory. French abstract: Les auteurs définissent les caryotypes de deux espèces néarctiques de marmottes, Marmota olympus (2n=40) et M. vancouverensis (2n=42), et donnent des précisions sur les caryotypes de M. flaviventris, M. monax ochracea et M. marmota. Les six especes de Marmota (NF=66) d'Amérique du Nord forment un groupe distinct des espèces d'Asie centrale (NF=70) dont Ie caryotype est connu. Les données caryologiques et les preuves zoogéographiques basées sur la répartition de deux espèces néarctiques de cestodes spécifiques de I'hôte démontrent que M. broweri, dans l'Alaska septentrional, est une relicte du pré-Würm. Elle semble avoir plus d'affinités avec Ie groupe nord américain de caligata qu'avec M. camtschatica du nord de la Sibérie. La présence sur M. broweri de la puce asiatique, Oropsylla silantiewi, n'est pas expliquée. Quelques caractéristiques écologiques et éthologiques de M. broweri sont décrites brièvement et comparées avec celles d'autres espèces. Les groupes familiaux de M. broweri hibernent dans un meme terrier dont l'entrée est bouchée; la copulation à lieu avant que les animaux sortent de leur abri hivernal, it la mi-mai ; ils se servent de leurs glandes faciales pour marquer leur territoire.

La escuela primaria de la minería en el Concejo de Aller (Asturias). Del primer franquismo al tardofranquismo: 1940-1975

[ES]Tras la derrota de la República española, la estructura educativa fue desmontada en toda España y sustituida por una escuela centrada en los valores religiosos y patrios propugnados por el régimen franquista. El libro de actas de la Junta Municipal de Educación Primaria de Aller es una fuente privilegiada, inédita hasta el momento, para analizar la organización educativa durante el extenso periodo analizado. Este documento atestigua asimismo la dimensión política franquista y tardofranquista y la situación socio-laboral, como evidencian los objetivos de este artículo. Dentro de los programas paternalistas, activos hasta 1970 inclusive, las compañías mineras ya habían creado centros escolares religiosos en Aller durante el primer cuarto del siglo XX. Sin embargo, la mayor parte de los hijos de los mineros recibieron su instrucción en las escuelas nacionales, afianzadas sobre los rígidos esquemas de obediencia y sumisión. La educación franquista se ha esforzado en perpetuar los cometidos sociales de niños y niñas por medio de una educación segregada y represiva.[EN]After the defeat of the Spanish Republic, rpublican educational structure in Spain was dismantled around the whole country and replaced by one focused on the religious and patriotic values espoused by the Franco regime. The minute book contains the local board’s agreements between 1940 and 1975, not only in terms of educational management, which are exposed along the aims of this article. The source used for this article, unpublished until now, has also facilitated the study of the political and social-labour paternalistic dimension during the long period of time analysed. Within the paternalistic programmes, active until and including 1970, mining companies had already established faith schools in Aller, but most of the miners’ children received their education in state schools entrenched in severe patterns of obedience and submission. The educational system within Franco’s regime has strived to perpetuate the social roles of girls and boys through single-sex education.