Aplicaciones de los modelos de predicción bio-inspirados en la administración

Las organizaciones y sus entornos son sistemas complejos. Tales sistemas son difíciles de comprender y predecir. Pese a ello, la predicción es una tarea fundamental para la gestión empresarial y para la toma de decisiones que implica siempre un riesgo. Los métodos clásicos de predicción (entre los cuales están: la regresión lineal, la Autoregresive Moving Average y el exponential smoothing) establecen supuestos como la linealidad, la estabilidad para ser matemática y computacionalmente tratables. Por diferentes medios, sin embargo, se han demostrado las limitaciones de tales métodos. Pues bien, en las últimas décadas nuevos métodos de predicción han surgido con el fin de abarcar la complejidad de los sistemas organizacionales y sus entornos, antes que evitarla. Entre ellos, los más promisorios son los métodos de predicción bio-inspirados (ej. redes neuronales, algoritmos genéticos /evolutivos y sistemas inmunes artificiales). Este artículo pretende establecer un estado situacional de las aplicaciones actuales y potenciales de los métodos bio-inspirados de predicción en la administración.

The Crystal-t Algorithm: A New Approach To Calculate The Sle Of Lipidic Mixtures Presenting Solid Solutions.

Lipidic mixtures present a particular phase change profile highly affected by their unique crystalline structure. However, classical solid-liquid equilibrium (SLE) thermodynamic modeling approaches, which assume the solid phase to be a pure component, sometimes fail in the correct description of the phase behavior. In addition, their inability increases with the complexity of the system. To overcome some of these problems, this study describes a new procedure to depict the SLE of fatty binary mixtures presenting solid solutions, namely the Crystal-T algorithm. Considering the non-ideality of both liquid and solid phases, this algorithm is aimed at the determination of the temperature in which the first and last crystal of the mixture melts. The evaluation is focused on experimental data measured and reported in this work for systems composed of triacylglycerols and fatty alcohols. The liquidus and solidus lines of the SLE phase diagrams were described by using excess Gibbs energy based equations, and the group contribution UNIFAC model for the calculation of the activity coefficients of both liquid and solid phases. Very low deviations of theoretical and experimental data evidenced the strength of the algorithm, contributing to the enlargement of the scope of the SLE modeling.

Full threshold vs. Swedish interactive threshold algorithm (SITA) em pacientes glaucomatosos submetidos à perimetria computadorizada pela primeira vez

PURPOSE: To compare the Full Threshold (FT) and SITA Standard (SS) strategies in glaucomatous patients undergoing automated perimetry for the first time. METHODS: Thirty-one glaucomatous patients who had never undergone perimetry underwent automated perimetry (Humphrey, program 30-2) with both FT and SS on the same day, with an interval of at least 15 minutes. The order of the examination was randomized, and only one eye per patient was analyzed. Three analyses were performed: a) all the examinations, regardless of the order of application; b) only the first examinations; c) only the second examinations. In order to calculate the sensitivity of both strategies, the following criteria were used to define abnormality: glaucoma hemifield test (GHT) outside normal limits, pattern standard deviation (PSD) <5%, or a cluster of 3 adjacent points with p<5% at the pattern deviation probability plot. RESULTS: When the results of all examinations were analyzed regardless of the order in which they were performed, the number of depressed points with p<0.5% in the pattern deviation probability map was significantly greater with SS (p=0.037), and the sensitivities were 87.1% for SS and 77.4% for FT (p=0.506). When only the first examinations were compared, there were no statistically significant differences regarding the number of depressed points, but the sensitivity of SS (100%) was significantly greater than that obtained with FT (70.6%) (p=0.048). When only the second examinations were compared, there were no statistically significant differences regarding the number of depressed points, and the sensitivities of SS (76.5%) and FT (85.7%) (p=0.664). CONCLUSION: SS may have a higher sensitivity than FT in glaucomatous patients undergoing automated perimetry for the first time. However, this difference tends to disappear in subsequent examinations.

Combining Legendre's Polynomials and Genetic Algorithm in the Solution of Nonlinear Initial-Value Problems

This work develops a method for solving ordinary differential equations, that is, initial-value problems, with solutions approximated by using Legendre's polynomials. An iterative procedure for the adjustment of the polynomial coefficients is developed, based on the genetic algorithm. This procedure is applied to several examples providing comparisons between its results and the best polynomial fitting when numerical solutions by the traditional Runge-Kutta or Adams methods are available. The resulting algorithm provides reliable solutions even if the numerical solutions are not available, that is, when the mass matrix is singular or the equation produces unstable running processes.

Adaptive Immunity against Leishmania Nucleoside Hydrolase Maps Its C-Terminal Domain as the Target of the CD4+ T Cell-Driven Protective Response

Nucleoside hydrolases (NHs) show homology among parasite protozoa, fungi and bacteria. They are vital protagonists in the establishment of early infection and, therefore, are excellent candidates for the pathogen recognition by adaptive immune responses. Immune protection against NHs would prevent disease at the early infection of several pathogens. We have identified the domain of the NH of L. donovani (NH36) responsible for its immunogenicity and protective efficacy against murine visceral leishmaniasis (VL). Using recombinant generated peptides covering the whole NH36 sequence and saponin we demonstrate that protection against L. chagasi is related to its C-terminal domain (amino-acids 199-314) and is mediated mainly by a CD4+ T cell driven response with a lower contribution of CD8+ T cells. Immunization with this peptide exceeds in 36.73 +/- 12.33% the protective response induced by the cognate NH36 protein. Increases in IgM, IgG2a, IgG1 and IgG2b antibodies, CD4+ T cell proportions, IFN-gamma secretion, ratios of IFN-gamma/IL-10 producing CD4+ and CD8+ T cells and percents of antibody binding inhibition by synthetic predicted epitopes were detected in F3 vaccinated mice. The increases in DTH and in ratios of TNF alpha/IL-10 CD4+ producing cells were however the strong correlates of protection which was confirmed by in vivo depletion with monoclonal antibodies, algorithm predicted CD4 and CD8 epitopes and a pronounced decrease in parasite load (90.5-88.23%; p = 0.011) that was long-lasting. No decrease in parasite load was detected after vaccination with the N-domain of NH36, in spite of the induction of IFN-gamma/IL-10 expression by CD4+ T cells after challenge. Both peptides reduced the size of footpad lesions, but only the C-domain reduced the parasite load of mice challenged with L. amazonensis. The identification of the target of the immune response to NH36 represents a basis for the rationale development of a bivalent vaccine against leishmaniasis and for multivalent vaccines against NHs-dependent pathogens.

Vascular relaxation of canine visceral arteries after ischemia by means of supraceliac aortic cross-clamping followed by reperfusion

Background: The supraceliac aortic cross-clamping can be an option to save patients with hipovolemic shock due to abdominal trauma. However, this maneuver is associated with ischemia/reperfusion (I/R) injury strongly related to oxidative stress and reduction of nitric oxide bioavailability. Moreover, several studies demonstrated impairment in relaxation after I/R, but the time course of I/R necessary to induce vascular dysfunction is still controversial. We investigated whether 60 minutes of ischemia followed by 30 minutes of reperfusion do not change the relaxation of visceral arteries nor the plasma and renal levels of malondialdehyde (MDA) and nitrite plus nitrate (NOx). Methods: Male mongrel dogs (n = 27) were randomly allocated in one of the three groups: sham (no clamping, n = 9), ischemia (supraceliac aortic cross-clamping for 60 minutes, n = 9), and I/R (60 minutes of ischemia followed by reperfusion for 30 minutes, n = 9). Relaxation of visceral arteries (celiac trunk, renal and superior mesenteric arteries) was studied in organ chambers. MDA and NOx concentrations were determined using a commercially available kit and an ozone-based chemiluminescence assay, respectively. Results: Both acetylcholine and calcium ionophore caused relaxation in endothelium-intact rings and no statistical differences were observed among the three groups. Sodium nitroprusside promoted relaxation in endothelium-denuded rings, and there were no inter-group statistical differences. Both plasma and renal concentrations of MDA and NOx showed no significant difference among the groups. Conclusion: Supraceliac aortic cross-clamping for 60 minutes alone and followed by 30 minutes of reperfusion did not impair relaxation of canine visceral arteries nor evoke biochemical alterations in plasma or renal tissue.

Fast ray-tracing algorithm for circumstellar structures (FRACS) II. Disc parameters of the B[e] supergiant CPD-57 degrees 2874 from VLTI/MIDI data

Context. B[e] supergiants are luminous, massive post-main sequence stars exhibiting non-spherical winds, forbidden lines, and hot dust in a disc-like structure. The physical properties of their rich and complex circumstellar environment (CSE) are not well understood, partly because these CSE cannot be easily resolved at the large distances found for B[e] supergiants (typically greater than or similar to 1 kpc). Aims. From mid-IR spectro-interferometric observations obtained with VLTI/MIDI we seek to resolve and study the CSE of the Galactic B[e] supergiant CPD-57 degrees 2874. Methods. For a physical interpretation of the observables (visibilities and spectrum) we use our ray-tracing radiative transfer code (FRACS), which is optimised for thermal spectro-interferometric observations. Results. Thanks to the short computing time required by FRACS (<10 s per monochromatic model), best-fit parameters and uncertainties for several physical quantities of CPD-57 degrees 2874 were obtained, such as inner dust radius, relative flux contribution of the central source and of the dusty CSE, dust temperature profile, and disc inclination. Conclusions. The analysis of VLTI/MIDI data with FRACS allowed one of the first direct determinations of physical parameters of the dusty CSE of a B[e] supergiant based on interferometric data and using a full model-fitting approach. In a larger context, the study of B[e] supergiants is important for a deeper understanding of the complex structure and evolution of hot, massive stars.

Characterizing suspended sediments from the Piracicaba River Basin by means of k(0)-INAA

The inorganic chemical characterization of suspended sediments is of utmost relevance for the knowledge of the dynamics and movement of chemical elements in the aquatic and wet ecosystems. Despite the complexity of the effective design for studying this ecological compartment, this work has tested a procedure for analyzing suspended sediments by instrumental neutron activation analysis, k(0) method (k(0)-INAA). The chemical elements As, Ba, Br, Ca, Ce, Co, Cr, Cs, Eu, Fe, Hf, Fig, K, La, Mo, Na, Ni, Rb, Sb, Sc, Se, Sm, Sr, Ta, Tb, Th, Yb and Zn were quantified in the suspended sediment compartment by means of k(0)-INAA. When compared with World Average for rivers, high mass fractions of Fe (222,900 mg/kg), Ba (4990 mg/kg), Zn (1350 mg/kg), Cr (646 mg/kg), Co (74.5 mg/kg), Br (113 mg/kg) and Mo (31.9 mg/kg) were quantified in suspended sediments from the Piracicaba River, the Piracicamirim Stream and the Marins Stream. Results of the principal component analysis for standardized chemical element mass fractions indicated an intricate correlation among chemical elements evaluated, as a response of the contribution of natural and anthropogenic sources of chemical elements for ecosystems. (C) 2010 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Monitoring stress tolerance and occurrences of upper respiratory illness in basketball players by means of psychometric tools and salivary biomarkers

The aim of the study was to evaluate the possible relationships between stress tolerance, training load, banal infections and salivary parameters during 4 weeks of regular training in fifteen basketball players. The Daily Analysis of Life Demands for Athletes` questionnaire (sources and symptoms of stress) and the Wisconsin Upper Respiratory Symptom Survey were used on a weekly basis. Salivary cortisol and salivary immunoglobulin A (SIgA) were collected at the beginning (before) and after the study, and measured by enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay (ELISA). Ratings of perceived exertion (training load) were also obtained. The results from ANOVA with repeated measures showed greater training loads, number of upper respiratory tract infection episodes and negative sensation to both symptoms and sources of stress, at week 2 (p < 0.05). Significant increases in cortisol levels and decreases in SIgA secretion rate were noted (before to after). Negative sensations to symptoms of stress at week 4 were inversely and significantly correlated with SIgA secretion rate. A positive and significant relationship between sources and symptoms of stress at week 4 and cortisol levels were verified. In summary, an approach incorporating in conjunction psychometric tools and salivary biomarkers could be an efficient means of monitoring reaction to stress in sport. Copyright (C) 2010 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Power Transformer Differential Protection Based on Clarke`s Transform and Fuzzy Systems

The power transformer is a piece of electrical equipment that needs continuous monitoring and fast protection since it is very expensive and an essential element for a power system to perform effectively. The most common protection technique used is the percentage differential logic, which provides discrimination between an internal fault and different operating conditions. Unfortunately, there are some operating conditions of power transformers that can affect the protection behavior and the power system stability. This paper proposes the development of a new algorithm to improve the differential protection performance by using fuzzy logic and Clarke`s transform. An electrical power system was modeled using Alternative Transients Program (ATP) software to obtain the operational conditions and fault situations needed to test the algorithm developed. The results were compared to a commercial relay for validation, showing the advantages of the new method.

Multi-objective analysis of impacts of distributed generation placement on the operational characteristics of networks for distribution system planning

Recent advances in energy technology generation and new directions in electricity regulation have made distributed generation (DG) more widespread, with consequent significant impacts on the operational characteristics of distribution networks. For this reason, new methods for identifying such impacts are needed, together with research and development of new tools and resources to maintain and facilitate continued expansion towards DG. This paper presents a study aimed at determining appropriate DG sites for distribution systems. The main considerations which determine DG sites are also presented, together with an account of the advantages gained from correct DG placement. The paper intends to define some quantitative and qualitative parameters evaluated by Digsilent (R), GARP3 (R) and DSA-GD software. A multi-objective approach based on the Bellman-Zadeh algorithm and fuzzy logic is used to determine appropriate DG sites. The study also aims to find acceptable DG locations both for distribution system feeders, as well as for nodes inside a given feeder. (C) 2010 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Node-Depth Encoding and Multiobjective Evolutionary Algorithm Applied to Large-Scale Distribution System Reconfiguration

The power loss reduction in distribution systems (DSs) is a nonlinear and multiobjective problem. Service restoration in DSs is even computationally hard since it additionally requires a solution in real-time. Both DS problems are computationally complex. For large-scale networks, the usual problem formulation has thousands of constraint equations. The node-depth encoding (NDE) enables a modeling of DSs problems that eliminates several constraint equations from the usual formulation, making the problem solution simpler. On the other hand, a multiobjective evolutionary algorithm (EA) based on subpopulation tables adequately models several objectives and constraints, enabling a better exploration of the search space. The combination of the multiobjective EA with NDE (MEAN) results in the proposed approach for solving DSs problems for large-scale networks. Simulation results have shown the MEAN is able to find adequate restoration plans for a real DS with 3860 buses and 632 switches in a running time of 0.68 s. Moreover, the MEAN has shown a sublinear running time in function of the system size. Tests with networks ranging from 632 to 5166 switches indicate that the MEAN can find network configurations corresponding to a power loss reduction of 27.64% for very large networks requiring relatively low running time.

Fuzzy pole placement based on piecewise Lyapunov functions

This paper presents a controller design method for fuzzy dynamic systems based on piecewise Lyapunov functions with constraints on the closed-loop pole location. The main idea is to use switched controllers to locate the poles of the system to obtain a satisfactory transient response. It is shown that the global fuzzy system satisfies the requirements for the design and that the control law can be obtained by solving a set of linear matrix inequalities, which can be efficiently solved with commercially available softwares. An example is given to illustrate the application of the proposed method. Copyright (C) 2009 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

An algorithm for computerized automatic tuning of power system stabilizers

The main objective of this paper is to relieve the power system engineers from the burden of the complex and time-consuming process of power system stabilizer (PSS) tuning. To achieve this goal, the paper proposes an automatic process for computerized tuning of PSSs, which is based on an iterative process that uses a linear matrix inequality (LMI) solver to find the PSS parameters. It is shown in the paper that PSS tuning can be written as a search problem over a non-convex feasible set. The proposed algorithm solves this feasibility problem using an iterative LMI approach and a suitable initial condition, corresponding to a PSS designed for nominal operating conditions only (which is a quite simple task, since the required phase compensation is uniquely defined). Some knowledge about the PSS tuning is also incorporated in the algorithm through the specification of bounds defining the allowable PSS parameters. The application of the proposed algorithm to a benchmark test system and the nonlinear simulation of the resulting closed-loop models demonstrate the efficiency of this algorithm. (C) 2009 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

A novel multiobjective optimization algorithm based on bacterial chemotaxis

In this article a novel algorithm based on the chemotaxis process of Echerichia coil is developed to solve multiobjective optimization problems. The algorithm uses fast nondominated sorting procedure, communication between the colony members and a simple chemotactical strategy to change the bacterial positions in order to explore the search space to find several optimal solutions. The proposed algorithm is validated using 11 benchmark problems and implementing three different performance measures to compare its performance with the NSGA-II genetic algorithm and with the particle swarm-based algorithm NSPSO. (C) 2009 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.