Risk based decision support system for effective implementation of projects

Conventional project management techniques are not always sufficient to ensure time, cost and quality achievement of large-scale construction projects due to complexity in planning, design and implementation processes. The main reasons for project non-achievement are changes in scope and design, changes in government policies and regulations, unforeseen inflation, underestimation and improper estimation. Projects that are exposed to such an uncertain environment can be effectively managed with the application of risk management throughout the project's life cycle. However, the effectiveness of risk management depends on the technique through which the effects of risk factors are analysed/quantified. This study proposes the Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP), a multiple attribute decision making technique, as a tool for risk analysis because it can handle subjective as well as objective factors in a decision model that are conflicting in nature. This provides a decision support system (DSS) to project management for making the right decision at the right time for ensuring project success in line with organisation policy, project objectives and a competitive business environment. The whole methodology is explained through a case application of a cross-country petroleum pipeline project in India and its effectiveness in project management is demonstrated.

Multiple attribute decision making approach to petroleum pipeline route selection

Petroleum pipelines are the nervous system of the oil industry, as this transports crude oil from sources to refineries and petroleum products from refineries to demand points. Therefore, the efficient operation of these pipelines determines the effectiveness of the entire business. Pipeline route selection plays a major role when designing an effective pipeline system, as the health of the pipeline depends on its terrain. The present practice of route selection for petroleum pipelines is governed by factors such as the shortest distance, constructability, minimal effects on the environment, and approachability. Although this reduces capital expenditure, it often proves to be uneconomical when life cycle costing is considered. This study presents a route selection model with the application of an Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP), a multiple attribute decision making technique. AHP considers all the above factors along with the operability and maintainability factors interactively. This system has been demonstrated here through a case study of pipeline route selection, from an Indian perspective. A cost-benefit comparison of the shortest route (conventionally selected) and optimal route establishes the effectiveness of the model.

Optimization of facility location-allocation problem in customer-driven supply chain

This paper develops and applies an integrated multiple criteria decision making approach to optimize the facility location-allocation problem in the contemporary customer-driven supply chain. Unlike the traditional optimization techniques, the proposed approach, combining the analytic hierarchy process (AHP) and the goal programming (GP) model, considers both quantitative and qualitative factors, and also aims at maximizing the benefits of deliverer and customers. In the integrated approach, the AHP is used first to determine the relative importance weightings or priorities of alternative locations with respect to both deliverer oriented and customer oriented criteria. Then, the GP model, incorporating the constraints of system, resource, and AHP priority is formulated to select the best locations for setting up the warehouses without exceeding the limited available resources. In this paper, a real case study is used to demonstrate how the integrated approach can be applied to deal with the facility location-allocation problem, and it is proved that the integrated approach outperforms the traditional costbased approach.

An integrated multiple criteria decision making approach for resource allocation in higher education

Resource allocation is one of the major decision problems arising in higher education. Resources must be allocated optimally in such a way that the performance of universities can be improved. This paper applies an integrated multiple criteria decision making approach to the resource allocation problem. In the approach, the Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP) is first used to determine the priority or relative importance of proposed projects with respect to the goals of the universities. Then, the Goal Programming (GP) model incorporating the constraints of AHP priority, system, and resource is formulated for selecting the best set of projects without exceeding the limited available resources. The projects include 'hardware' (tangible university's infrastructures), and 'software' (intangible effects that can be beneficial to the university, its members, and its students). In this paper, two commercial packages are used: Expert Choice for determining the AHP priority ranking of the projects, and LINDO for solving the GP model. Copyright © 2007 Inderscience Enterprises Ltd.

Multi-criteria logistics distribution network design using SAS/OR

This paper explores the use of the optimization procedures in SAS/OR software with application to the contemporary logistics distribution network design using an integrated multiple criteria decision making approach. Unlike the traditional optimization techniques, the proposed approach, combining analytic hierarchy process (AHP) and goal programming (GP), considers both quantitative and qualitative factors. In the integrated approach, AHP is used to determine the relative importance weightings or priorities of alternative warehouses with respect to both deliverer oriented and customer oriented criteria. Then, a GP model incorporating the constraints of system, resource, and AHP priority is formulated to select the best set of warehouses without exceeding the limited available resources. To facilitate the use of integrated multiple criteria decision making approach by SAS users, an ORMCDM code was implemented in the SAS programming language. The SAS macro developed in this paper selects the chosen variables from a SAS data file and constructs sets of linear programming models based on the selected GP model. An example is given to illustrate how one could use the code to design the logistics distribution network.

Whole life performance bid evaluation in the Korean public sector

Korea has increasingly adopted design-build for public construction projects in the last few years. There is a much greater awareness of the need to change a system based on ‘Value for Money’ which is high on the government's agenda. A whole life performance bid evaluation model is proposed to aid decision makers in the selection of a design-builder. This is based on the integration of a framework using an analytic hierarchy process as the bid awarding system is being changed from one based on lowest price, to one based on best value over the life-cycle. Key criteria like whole life cost, service life planning and design quality are important through the key stages of evaluation process. The model uses a systematic and holistic approach which enables a public sector to make better decisions in design-builder selection, which will deliver whole life benefits, based on long term cost-effectiveness and whole life.

Decision support system for spare parts warehousing

Spare parts warehousing decision-making plays an important role in today's manufacturing industry as it derives an optimum inventory policy for the organizations. Previous research on spare parts warehousing decision-making did not deal with the problem holistically considering all the subjective and objective criteria of operational and strategic needs of the manufacturing companies in the process industry. This study reviews current relevant literature and develops a conceptual framework (an integrated group decision support system) for selecting the most effective warehousing option for the process industry using the analytic hierarchy process (AHP). The framework has been applied to a multinational cement manufacturing company in the UK. Three site visits, eight formal interviews, and several discussions have been undertaken with personnel of the organization, many of which have more than 20 years of experience, in order to apply the proposed decision support system (DSS). Subsequently, the DSS has been validated through a questionnaire survey in order to establish its usefulness, effectiveness for warehousing decision-making, and the possibility of adoption. The proposed DSS is an integrated framework for selecting the best warehousing option for business excellence in any manufacturing organization.

Project risk management using multiple criteria decision-making technique and decision tree analysis:a case study of Indian oil refinery

This study proposes an integrated analytical framework for effective management of project risks using combined multiple criteria decision-making technique and decision tree analysis. First, a conceptual risk management model was developed through thorough literature review. The model was then applied through action research on a petroleum oil refinery construction project in the Central part of India in order to demonstrate its effectiveness. Oil refinery construction projects are risky because of technical complexity, resource unavailability, involvement of many stakeholders and strict environmental requirements. Although project risk management has been researched extensively, practical and easily adoptable framework is missing. In the proposed framework, risks are identified using cause and effect diagram, analysed using the analytic hierarchy process and responses are developed using the risk map. Additionally, decision tree analysis allows modelling various options for risk response development and optimises selection of risk mitigating strategy. The proposed risk management framework could be easily adopted and applied in any project and integrated with other project management knowledge areas.

Strategic sourcing:a combined QFD and AHP approach in manufacturing

Purpose – This paper aims to develop an integrated analytical approach, combining quality function deployment (QFD) and analytic hierarchy process (AHP) approach, to enhance the effectiveness of sourcing decisions. Design/methodology/approach – In the approach, QFD is used to translate the company stakeholder requirements into multiple evaluating factors for supplier selection, which are used to benchmark the suppliers. AHP is used to determine the importance of evaluating factors and preference of each supplier with respect to each selection criterion. Findings – The effectiveness of the proposed approach is demonstrated by applying it to a UK-based automobile manufacturing company. With QFD, the evaluating factors are related to the strategic intent of the company through the involvement of concerned stakeholders. This ensures successful strategic sourcing. The application of AHP ensures consistent supplier performance measurement using benchmarking approach. Research limitations/implications – The proposed integrated approach can be principally adopted in other decision-making scenarios for effective management of the supply chain. Practical implications – The proposed integrated approach can be used as a group-based decision support system for supplier selection, in which all relevant stakeholders are involved to identify various quantitative and qualitative evaluating criteria, and their importance. Originality/value – Various approaches that can deal with multiple and conflicting criteria have been adopted for the supplier selection. However, they fail to consider the impact of business objectives and the requirements of company stakeholders in the identification of evaluating criteria for strategic supplier selection. The proposed integrated approach outranks the conventional approaches to supplier selection and supplier performance measurement because the sourcing strategy and supplier selection are derived from the corporate/business strategy.

Strategic logistics outsourcing: an integrated QFD and AHP approach

Third-party logistics service providers (3PLs) play a vital role in contemporary supply chain management. Evaluation and selection of the right 3PLs depends on a wide range of quantitative and qualitative criteria rather than cost-based factors. Although various multi-criteria decision making approaches have been proposed, they have not considered the impact of business objectives and requirements of company stakeholders on the evaluating criteria. To enable the "voice" of company stakeholders is considered, this paper develops an integrated approach for selecting 3PL strategically. In the approach, multiple evaluating criteria are derived from the requirements of company stakeholders using a series of house of quality (HOQ). The importance of evaluating criteria is prioritized with respect to the degree of achieving the stakeholder requirements using analytic hierarchy process (AHP). Based on the ranked criteria, alternative 3PLs are evaluated and compared with each other using AHP again to make an optimal selection.

Strategic sourcing in the UK bioenergy industry

Successful supply chain management requires the management of a complex, multi-stakeholder, multi-criteria system. Stakeholder inclusion in the supply chain design and decision making processes is an area of growing interest for companies looking to design sustainable supply chains or produce sustainable products. This paper demonstrates the use of the integrated quality function deployment and analytic hierarchy process (QFD-AHP) method for the inclusion of a wide group of stakeholder requirements into the supplier selection process. The method provides a weighted ranked list of evaluating criteria which can be used to assess potential suppliers in the UK renewable bioenergy industry. The bioenergy industry is suitable as there are many stakeholders placing various requirements upon potential biomass suppliers. The paper uses a mixture of literature review and semi-structured industry interviews to answer three research questions: which stakeholder groups are important when selecting biomass suppliers for the UK? What requirements are made by these stakeholders on the supply of biomass fuels and feedstocks? Which evaluating criteria are most important? © 2013 Elsevier B.V.

Uses of frontier efficiency methodologies and multi-criteria decision making for performance measurement in the energy sector

Guest editorial Ali Emrouznejad is a Senior Lecturer at the Aston Business School in Birmingham, UK. His areas of research interest include performance measurement and management, efficiency and productivity analysis as well as data mining. He has published widely in various international journals. He is an Associate Editor of IMA Journal of Management Mathematics and Guest Editor to several special issues of journals including Journal of Operational Research Society, Annals of Operations Research, Journal of Medical Systems, and International Journal of Energy Management Sector. He is in the editorial board of several international journals and co-founder of Performance Improvement Management Software. William Ho is a Senior Lecturer at the Aston University Business School. Before joining Aston in 2005, he had worked as a Research Associate in the Department of Industrial and Systems Engineering at the Hong Kong Polytechnic University. His research interests include supply chain management, production and operations management, and operations research. He has published extensively in various international journals like Computers & Operations Research, Engineering Applications of Artificial Intelligence, European Journal of Operational Research, Expert Systems with Applications, International Journal of Production Economics, International Journal of Production Research, Supply Chain Management: An International Journal, and so on. His first authored book was published in 2006. He is an Editorial Board member of the International Journal of Advanced Manufacturing Technology and an Associate Editor of the OR Insight Journal. Currently, he is a Scholar of the Advanced Institute of Management Research. Uses of frontier efficiency methodologies and multi-criteria decision making for performance measurement in the energy sector This special issue aims to focus on holistic, applied research on performance measurement in energy sector management and for publication of relevant applied research to bridge the gap between industry and academia. After a rigorous refereeing process, seven papers were included in this special issue. The volume opens with five data envelopment analysis (DEA)-based papers. Wu et al. apply the DEA-based Malmquist index to evaluate the changes in relative efficiency and the total factor productivity of coal-fired electricity generation of 30 Chinese administrative regions from 1999 to 2007. Factors considered in the model include fuel consumption, labor, capital, sulphur dioxide emissions, and electricity generated. The authors reveal that the east provinces were relatively and technically more efficient, whereas the west provinces had the highest growth rate in the period studied. Ioannis E. Tsolas applies the DEA approach to assess the performance of Greek fossil fuel-fired power stations taking undesirable outputs into consideration, such as carbon dioxide and sulphur dioxide emissions. In addition, the bootstrapping approach is deployed to address the uncertainty surrounding DEA point estimates, and provide bias-corrected estimations and confidence intervals for the point estimates. The author revealed from the sample that the non-lignite-fired stations are on an average more efficient than the lignite-fired stations. Maethee Mekaroonreung and Andrew L. Johnson compare the relative performance of three DEA-based measures, which estimate production frontiers and evaluate the relative efficiency of 113 US petroleum refineries while considering undesirable outputs. Three inputs (capital, energy consumption, and crude oil consumption), two desirable outputs (gasoline and distillate generation), and an undesirable output (toxic release) are considered in the DEA models. The authors discover that refineries in the Rocky Mountain region performed the best, and about 60 percent of oil refineries in the sample could improve their efficiencies further. H. Omrani, A. Azadeh, S. F. Ghaderi, and S. Abdollahzadeh presented an integrated approach, combining DEA, corrected ordinary least squares (COLS), and principal component analysis (PCA) methods, to calculate the relative efficiency scores of 26 Iranian electricity distribution units from 2003 to 2006. Specifically, both DEA and COLS are used to check three internal consistency conditions, whereas PCA is used to verify and validate the final ranking results of either DEA (consistency) or DEA-COLS (non-consistency). Three inputs (network length, transformer capacity, and number of employees) and two outputs (number of customers and total electricity sales) are considered in the model. Virendra Ajodhia applied three DEA-based models to evaluate the relative performance of 20 electricity distribution firms from the UK and the Netherlands. The first model is a traditional DEA model for analyzing cost-only efficiency. The second model includes (inverse) quality by modelling total customer minutes lost as an input data. The third model is based on the idea of using total social costs, including the firm’s private costs and the interruption costs incurred by consumers, as an input. Both energy-delivered and number of consumers are treated as the outputs in the models. After five DEA papers, Stelios Grafakos, Alexandros Flamos, Vlasis Oikonomou, and D. Zevgolis presented a multiple criteria analysis weighting approach to evaluate the energy and climate policy. The proposed approach is akin to the analytic hierarchy process, which consists of pairwise comparisons, consistency verification, and criteria prioritization. In the approach, stakeholders and experts in the energy policy field are incorporated in the evaluation process by providing an interactive mean with verbal, numerical, and visual representation of their preferences. A total of 14 evaluation criteria were considered and classified into four objectives, such as climate change mitigation, energy effectiveness, socioeconomic, and competitiveness and technology. Finally, Borge Hess applied the stochastic frontier analysis approach to analyze the impact of various business strategies, including acquisition, holding structures, and joint ventures, on a firm’s efficiency within a sample of 47 natural gas transmission pipelines in the USA from 1996 to 2005. The author finds that there were no significant changes in the firm’s efficiency by an acquisition, and there is a weak evidence for efficiency improvements caused by the new shareholder. Besides, the author discovers that parent companies appear not to influence a subsidiary’s efficiency positively. In addition, the analysis shows a negative impact of a joint venture on technical efficiency of the pipeline company. To conclude, we are grateful to all the authors for their contribution, and all the reviewers for their constructive comments, which made this special issue possible. We hope that this issue would contribute significantly to performance improvement of the energy sector.

Multiple criteria decision-making techniques in higher education

Purpose: The purpose of this paper is to review the literature which focuses on four major higher education decision problems. These are: resource allocation; performance measurement; budgeting; and scheduling. Design/methodology/approach: Related articles appearing in the international journals from 1996 to 2005 are gathered and analyzed so that the following three questions can be answered: "What kind of decision problems were paid most attention to?"; "Were the multiple criteria decision-making techniques prevalently adopted?"; and "What are the inadequacies of these approaches?" Findings: Based on the inadequacies, some improvements and possible future work are recommended, and a comprehensive resource allocation model is developed taking account of these factors. Finally, a new knowledge-based goal programming technique which integrates some operations of analytic hierarchy process is proposed to tackle the model intelligently. Originality/value: Higher education has faced the problem of budget cuts or constrained budgets for the past 30 years. Managing the process of the higher education system is, therefore, a crucial and urgent task for the decision makers of universities in order to improve their performance or competitiveness. © Emerald Group Publishing Limited.

An integrated assessment model for cross-country pipelines

The cross-country petroleum pipelines are environmentally sensitive because they traverse through varied terrain covering crop fields, forests, rivers, populated areas, desert, hills and offshore. Any malfunction of these pipelines may cause devastating effect on the environment. Hence, the pipeline operators plan and design pipelines projects with sufficient consideration of environment and social aspects along with the technological alternatives. Traditionally, in project appraisal, optimum technical alternative is selected using financial analysis. Impact assessments (IA) are then carried out to justify the selection and subsequent statutory approval. However, the IAs often suggest alternative sites and/or alternate technology and implementation methodology, resulting in revision of entire technical and financial analysis. This study addresses the above issues by developing an integrated framework for project feasibility analysis with the application of analytic hierarchy process (AHP), a multiple attribute decision-making technique. The model considers technical analysis (TA), socioeconomic IA (SEIA) and environmental IA (EIA) in an integrated framework to select the best project from a few alternative feasible projects. Subsequent financial analysis then justifies the selection. The entire methodology has been explained here through a case application on cross-country petroleum pipeline project in India.

Risk-based model aids selection of pipeline inspection, maintenance strategies

The existing method of pipeline monitoring, which requires an entire pipeline to be inspected periodically, wastes time and is expensive. A risk-based model that reduces the amount of time spent on inspection has been developed. This model not only reduces the cost of maintaining petroleum pipelines, but also suggests an efficient design and operation philosophy, construction method and logical insurance plans.The risk-based model uses analytic hierarchy process, a multiple attribute decision-making technique, to identify factors that influence failure on specific segments and analyze their effects by determining the probabilities of risk factors. The severity of failure is determined through consequence analysis, which establishes the effect of a failure in terms of cost caused by each risk factor and determines the cumulative effect of failure through probability analysis.