Analysis of eruptive and seismic sequences to improve the short-and long-term eruption forecasting

Forecasting the time, location, nature, and scale of volcanic eruptions is one of the most urgent aspects of modern applied volcanology. The reliability of probabilistic forecasting procedures is strongly related to the reliability of the input information provided, implying objective criteria for interpreting the historical and monitoring data. For this reason both, detailed analysis of past data and more basic research into the processes of volcanism, are fundamental tasks of a continuous information-gain process; in this way the precursor events of eruptions can be better interpreted in terms of their physical meanings with correlated uncertainties. This should lead to better predictions of the nature of eruptive events. In this work we have studied different problems associated with the long- and short-term eruption forecasting assessment. First, we discuss different approaches for the analysis of the eruptive history of a volcano, most of them generally applied for long-term eruption forecasting purposes; furthermore, we present a model based on the characteristics of a Brownian passage-time process to describe recurrent eruptive activity, and apply it for long-term, time-dependent, eruption forecasting (Chapter 1). Conversely, in an effort to define further monitoring parameters as input data for short-term eruption forecasting in probabilistic models (as for example, the Bayesian Event Tree for eruption forecasting -BET_EF-), we analyze some characteristics of typical seismic activity recorded in active volcanoes; in particular, we use some methodologies that may be applied to analyze long-period (LP) events (Chapter 2) and volcano-tectonic (VT) seismic swarms (Chapter 3); our analysis in general are oriented toward the tracking of phenomena that can provide information about magmatic processes. Finally, we discuss some possible ways to integrate the results presented in Chapters 1 (for long-term EF), 2 and 3 (for short-term EF) in the BET_EF model (Chapter 4).

Experimental and Numerical Analysis of Gas Forced Convection through Microtubes and Micro Heat Exchangers

The last decade has witnessed very fast development in microfabrication technologies. The increasing industrial applications of microfluidic systems call for more intensive and systematic knowledge on this newly emerging field. Especially for gaseous flow and heat transfer at microscale, the applicability of conventional theories developed at macro scale is not yet completely validated; this is mainly due to scarce experimental data available in literature for gas flows. The objective of this thesis is to investigate these unclear elements by analyzing forced convection for gaseous flows through microtubes and micro heat exchangers. Experimental tests have been performed with microtubes having various inner diameters, namely 750 m, 510 m and 170 m, over a wide range of Reynolds number covering the laminar region, the transitional zone and also the onset region of the turbulent regime. The results show that conventional theory is able to predict the flow friction factor when flow compressibility does not appear and the effect of fluid temperature-dependent properties is insignificant. A double-layered microchannel heat exchanger has been designed in order to study experimentally the efficiency of a gas-to-gas micro heat exchanger. This microdevice contains 133 parallel microchannels machined into polished PEEK plates for both the hot side and the cold side. The microchannels are 200 µm high, 200 µm wide and 39.8 mm long. The design of the micro device has been made in order to be able to test different materials as partition foil with flexible thickness. Experimental tests have been carried out for five different partition foils, with various mass flow rates and flow configurations. The experimental results indicate that the thermal performance of the countercurrent and cross flow micro heat exchanger can be strongly influenced by axial conduction in the partition foil separating the hot gas flow and cold gas flow.

Prediction and measurement of forced response of a composite blade undergoing nonlinear vibration

The main objective of this project is to experimentally demonstrate geometrical nonlinear phenomena due to large displacements during resonant vibration of composite materials and to explain the problem associated with fatigue prediction at resonant conditions. Three different composite blades to be tested were designed and manufactured, being their difference in the composite layup (i.e. unidirectional, cross-ply, and angle-ply layups). Manual envelope bagging technique is explained as applied to the actual manufacturing of the components; problems encountered and their solutions are detailed. Forced response tests of the first flexural, first torsional, and second flexural modes were performed by means of a uniquely contactless excitation system which induced vibration by using a pulsed airflow. Vibration intensity was acquired by means of Polytec LDV system. The first flexural mode is found to be completely linear irrespective of the vibration amplitude. The first torsional mode exhibits a general nonlinear softening behaviour which is interestingly coupled with a hardening behaviour for the unidirectional layup. The second flexural mode has a hardening nonlinear behaviour for either the unidirectional and angle-ply blade, whereas it is slightly softening for the cross-ply layup. By using the same equipment as that used for forced response analyses, free decay tests were performed at different airflow intensities. Discrete Fourier Trasform over the entire decay and Sliding DFT were computed so as to visualise the presence of nonlinear superharmonics in the decay signal and when they were damped out from the vibration over the decay time. Linear modes exhibit an exponential decay, while nonlinearities are associated with a dry-friction damping phenomenon which tends to increase with increasing amplitude. Damping ratio is derived from logarithmic decrement for the exponential branch of the decay.

Resistive-Polymer Versus Forced-Air Warming: Comparable Efficacy in Orthopedic Patients

BACKGROUND: Several adverse consequences are caused by mild perioperative hypothermia. Maintaining normothermia with patient warming systems, today mostly with forced air (FA), has thus become a standard procedure during anesthesia. Recently, a polymer-based resistive patient warming system was developed. We compared the efficacy of a widely distributed FA system with the resistive-polymer (RP) system in a prospective, randomized clinical study. METHODS: Eighty patients scheduled for orthopedic surgery were randomized to either FA warming (Bair Hugger warming blanket #522 and blower #750, Arizant, Eden Prairie, MN) or RP warming (Hot Dog Multi-Position Blanket and Hot Dog controller, Augustine Biomedical, Eden Prairie, MN). Core temperature, skin temperature (head, upper and lower arm, chest, abdomen, back, thigh, and calf), and room temperature (general and near the patient) were recorded continuously. RESULTS: After an initial decrease, core temperatures increased in both groups at comparable rates (FA: 0.33 degrees C/h +/- 0.34 degrees C/h; RP: 0.29 degrees C/h +/- 0.35 degrees C/h; P = 0.6). There was also no difference in the course of mean skin and mean body (core) temperature. FA warming increased the environment close to the patient (the workplace of anesthesiologists and surgeons) more than RP warming (24.4 degrees C +/- 5.2 degrees C for FA vs 22.6 degrees C +/- 1.9 degrees C for RP at 30 minutes; P(AUC) <0.01). CONCLUSION: RP warming performed as efficiently as FA warming in patients undergoing orthopedic surgery.

Last stop expulsion - The minority question and forced migration in East-Central Europe: 1918-49

This article deals with the European minorities in the period between the two world wars and with their final expulsion from nation-states at the end of World War II. First, the tensions which arose between the organised minorities and the successor states of the Habsburg Monarchy are accounted for primarily by the argument that the various minorities located within the successor states had already undergone a comprehensive processes of nationalisation within the Habsburg Empire. Therefore they were able to resist assimilation by the political elites of the new titular nations (Czechs, Poles, Rumanians, Serbs). A second topic is that of the use made of the minorities issue by Adolf Hitler to help achieve his expansionist aims. The minorities issue was central to the international destabilisation of interwar Europe. Finally, the mass expulsion of minorities (above all, Germans) after the end of the war is explained by strategic considerations on the part of the Allied powers as well as involving the nation-state regimes. It is argued, against a commonly held view, that German atrocities during the period of occupation had little to do with the decision to expel most ethnic Germans from their territories of settlement in Poland, Czechoslovakia and Yugoslavia. The article shows that it is necessary to treat national minorities in the first half of the twentieth century as a single phenomenon which shares similar features across the various nation-states of East-Central Europe.

Forced fluid removal in critically ill patients with acute kidney injury

The aim was to test the feasibility of protocol-driven fluid removal with continuous renal replacement therapy (CRRT) in patients in whom standard fluid balance prescription did not result in substantial negative fluid balances.

Juvenile spring eruption: an outbreak report and systematic review of the literature

Juvenile spring eruption of the helices of the ears is a distinctive sun-induced condition appearing on the light-exposed skin of the ears, typically in boys and young men in early spring.

Forced-use therapy for children with cerebral palsy in the community setting: a single-blinded randomized controlled pilot trial

The aim of this study was to elucidate the feasibility, efficacy, and sustainability of a home-based, two-week, forced-use therapy (FUT) program for children with hemiplegic cerebral palsy (CP).