Monitoring trends in health in the East Midlands

A report published in 2002, Monitoring the State of the East Midlands. Sustainable Development Objectives and Targets for the East Midlands. Health Indicators, proposed a set of seven high-level health indicators for monitoring health status and health inequalities in the Region. The report also proposed a number of health improvement and health inequality reduction targets drawn from key national and regional strategy documents including Saving Lives: Our Healthier Nation and The East Midlands Integrated Regional Strategy. These relate to: - Life expectancy at birth. - Teenage pregnancy rate. - Mortality rate from circulatory disease in people aged under 75. - Mortality rate from cancer in people aged under 75. - Mortality rate from accidents in people of all ages. - Suicide rate in people of all ages. - Prevalence of cigarette smoking in people aged 16 and over. Progress towards these targets will indicate that the twin aims of the regional public health strategy Investment for Health - to improve health and to reduce health inequalities - are being achieved. This report updates these indicators with the latest available data. At the time of writing, data were available for years up to and including 2003 for most indicators. Please note that the latest data are provisional at this stage.

ONS Social Trends 35 - 2005

This edition features an overview chapter that highlights some of the major changes in society since Social Trends was first published. The UK has an ageing population, and growth in the minority ethnic population has resulted in a more diverse society. Household income has risen over the past 35 years, although income inequality has widened. Life expectancy has also increased but so have the number of years that we can expect to live in poor health or with a disability. Technology has transformed many of our lives and our dependence on the car is greater than ever.

Secular trends in height and weight among children and adolescents of the Seychelles, 1956-2006

Background: Few data is available on long-term secular trends in height and weight in children in countries in transition. We assessed the secular trends in height and weight among representative samples of children and adolescents from the Seychelles (African region). Methods: Weight and height data from all students of all schools in four selected school grades (kindergarten, 4th, 7th and 10th years) were collected by cross-sectional surveys for periods 1998-9 (3,676 boys, 3,715 girls) and 2005-6 (4,867 boys, 4,846 girls). Data from 1956-7 was extracted from a previously published report. Results: Height increased, in boys, by 1.6 cm/decade for the period 1956-7 to 1998- 9, and 1.1 cm/decade for the period 1998-8 to 2005-6; in girls, the corresponding figures were 0.9 cm/decade and 1.8 cm/decade. At age 15.5 years, boys/girls were taller by 10/13 cm in 2005-6 than in 1956-7. Weight increased, in boys, by 1.4 kg/decade for the period 1956-7 to 1998-9, and by 2.2 kg/decade for the subsequent period; the corresponding figures in girls were 1.1 kg/decade and 2.5 kg/decade. Conclusion: Marked upward secular trends in body height and weight were documented in children and adolescents aged <16 years in the Seychelles, consistent with large changes in socio-economic and nutritional indicators in the considered 50- year interval. However, indirect evidence suggests that the secular height gain reflects accelerated growth during childhood over time with less than commensurate impact on adult height. Conversely, the largely steeper secular increase in weight than height is consistent with a pediatric obesity epidemic.

National, regional, and global trends in fasting plasma glucose and diabetes prevalence since 1980: systematic analysis of health examination surveys and epidemiological studies with 370 country-years and 2·7 million participants.

BACKGROUND: Data for trends in glycaemia and diabetes prevalence are needed to understand the effects of diet and lifestyle within populations, assess the performance of interventions, and plan health services. No consistent and comparable global analysis of trends has been done. We estimated trends and their uncertainties in mean fasting plasma glucose (FPG) and diabetes prevalence for adults aged 25 years and older in 199 countries and territories. METHODS: We obtained data from health examination surveys and epidemiological studies (370 country-years and 2·7 million participants). We converted systematically between different glycaemic metrics. For each sex, we used a Bayesian hierarchical model to estimate mean FPG and its uncertainty by age, country, and year, accounting for whether a study was nationally, subnationally, or community representative. FINDINGS: In 2008, global age-standardised mean FPG was 5·50 mmol/L (95% uncertainty interval 5·37-5·63) for men and 5·42 mmol/L (5·29-5·54) for women, having risen by 0·07 mmol/L and 0·09 mmol/L per decade, respectively. Age-standardised adult diabetes prevalence was 9·8% (8·6-11·2) in men and 9·2% (8·0-10·5) in women in 2008, up from 8·3% (6·5-10·4) and 7·5% (5·8-9·6) in 1980. The number of people with diabetes increased from 153 (127-182) million in 1980, to 347 (314-382) million in 2008. We recorded almost no change in mean FPG in east and southeast Asia and central and eastern Europe. Oceania had the largest rise, and the highest mean FPG (6·09 mmol/L, 5·73-6·49 for men; 6·08 mmol/L, 5·72-6·46 for women) and diabetes prevalence (15·5%, 11·6-20·1 for men; and 15·9%, 12·1-20·5 for women) in 2008. Mean FPG and diabetes prevalence in 2008 were also high in south Asia, Latin America and the Caribbean, and central Asia, north Africa, and the Middle East. Mean FPG in 2008 was lowest in sub-Saharan Africa, east and southeast Asia, and high-income Asia-Pacific. In high-income subregions, western Europe had the smallest rise, 0·07 mmol/L per decade for men and 0·03 mmol/L per decade for women; North America had the largest rise, 0·18 mmol/L per decade for men and 0·14 mmol/L per decade for women. INTERPRETATION: Glycaemia and diabetes are rising globally, driven both by population growth and ageing and by increasing age-specific prevalences. Effective preventive interventions are needed, and health systems should prepare to detect and manage diabetes and its sequelae. FUNDING: Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation and WHO.

Trends in cancer mortality in Mexico, 1981-2007.

The objective of this study was to provideinformation on recent trends in cancer mortality in Mexico. We analyzed data provided by the World Health Organization, using joinpoint analysis to detect changes in trends between 1981 and 2007. For most cancers, mortality was upward but started to decline in the late 1980's/early 1990's for both sexes. Overall cancer mortality was 75.53/100 000 men, world standard, and 69.2/100 000 women in 2005-2007. Mortality from uterine cancer declined by approximately 2.5% per year in the 1990s, and by approximately 5% per year in the last decade, but its rates remained exceedingly high (9.7/100 000 in 2005-2007). Other major declines over recent years were those of stomach cancer (approximately 2.5% per year, with rates of 6.6/100 000 in men and 4.9/100 000 in women in 2005-2007) and lung cancer (2-2.5% per year, 11.0/100 000 in men and 4.5/100 000 in women in 2005-2007). Mortality leveled off only since the early 1990s for breast and prostate, and since the late 1990s for colorectal cancer. Death rates from cancer in Mexico remained low on a worldwide scale and showed favorable trends over more recent calendar years. Mortality from (cervix) uterine cancer still represents a major public health priority in this country.

Cardiologie [Trends in cardiology].

The year 2007 has been, as always, a very productive year in terms of new trials, publications and newly edited guidelines. The present article does not pretend to offer a complete overview. The different authors provide a particular choice of clinical research and guidelines in the field of heart failure, endocarditis and interventional cardiology.

Trends in the main diseases in an internal medicine ward, 2003-2011

Introduction : Population aging leads to a considerable increase in the prevalence of specific diseases. We aimed to assess if those changes were already reflected in an Internal Medicine ward. Methods : Anonymous data was obtained from the administrative database of the department of internal medicine of the Lausanne University Hospital (CHUV). All hospitalizations of adult (>=18 years) patients occurring between 2003 and 2011 were included. Infections, cancers and diseases according to body system (heart, lung...) were defined by the first letter of the ICD-10 code for the main cause of hospitalization. Specific diseases (myocardial infarction, heart failure...) were defined by the first three letters of the ICD-10 codes for the main cause of hospitalization. Results : Data from 32,741 hospitalizations occurring between 2003 and 2011 was analyzed. Cardiovascular (ICD-10 code I) and respiratory (ICD-10 code J) diseases ranked first and second, respectively, and their ranks did not change during the study period (figure). Digestive and endocrine diseases decreased while psychiatric diseases increased from rank 9 in 2003 to rank 6 in 2011 (figure). Among specific diseases, pneumonia (organism unspecified, code J18) ranked first in 2003 and second in 2011. Acute myocardial infarction (code I21) ranked second in 2003 and third in 2011. Chronic obstructive pulmonary disease with acute lower respiratory infection (code J44) ranked third in 2003 and decreased to rank 8 in 2011. Conversely, heart failure (code I50) increased from rank 8 in 2003 to rank 1 in 2011 and delirium (not induced by alcohol and other psychoactive substances, code F05) increased from below rank 20 in 2003 to rank 4 in 2011. For more details, see table. Conclusion : In less than 10 years, considerable changes occurred in the presentation of patients attending an Internal Medicine ward. The changes in diseases call for adaptations in hospital staff and logistics.

Determinants and trends in perinatal human immunodeficiency virus type 1 (HIV-1) transmission in the metropolitan area of Belo Horizonte, Brazil: 1998 - 2005

Significant decrease in human immunodeficiency virus type 1 (HIV-1) vertical transmission has been observed worldwide in centers where interventions such as antiretroviral therapy (ART), elective cesarean section, and avoidance of breastfeeding have been implemented. This prospective cohort study aimed to assess the determinants of and the temporal trends in HIV-1 vertical transmission in the metropolitan area of Belo Horizonte, Brazil from January 1998 to December 2005. The rate of HIV-1 vertical transmission decreased from 20% in 1998 to 3% in 2005. This decline was associated with increased use of more complex ART regimens during pregnancy. Multivariate analysis restricted to clinical variables demonstrated that non ART, neonatal respiratory distress/sepsis and breastfeeding were independently associated with HIV-1 vertical transmission. When laboratory parameters were included in the model, high maternal viral load and non maternal ART were associated with HIV-1 vertical transmission. The results from this study confirm the impact of ART in the reduction of HIV-1 vertical transmission and indicate the need for improvement in the care and monitoring of mother and infant pairs affected by HIV-1.

Publication trends of shared decision making in 15 high impact medical journals: a full-text review with bibliometric analysis.

BACKGROUND: Shared Decision Making (SDM) is increasingly advocated as a model for medical decision making. However, there is still low use of SDM in clinical practice. High impact factor journals might represent an efficient way for its dissemination. We aimed to identify and characterize publication trends of SDM in 15 high impact medical journals. METHODS: We selected the 15 general and internal medicine journals with the highest impact factor publishing original articles, letters and editorials. We retrieved publications from 1996 to 2011 through the full-text search function on each journal website and abstracted bibliometric data. We included publications of any type containing the phrase "shared decision making" or five other variants in their abstract or full text. These were referred to as SDM publications. A polynomial Poisson regression model with logarithmic link function was used to assess the evolution across the period of the number of SDM publications according to publication characteristics. RESULTS: We identified 1285 SDM publications out of 229,179 publications in 15 journals from 1996 to 2011. The absolute number of SDM publications by journal ranged from 2 to 273 over 16 years. SDM publications increased both in absolute and relative numbers per year, from 46 (0.32% relative to all publications from the 15 journals) in 1996 to 165 (1.17%) in 2011. This growth was exponential (P < 0.01). We found fewer research publications (465, 36.2% of all SDM publications) than non-research publications, which included non-systematic reviews, letters, and editorials. The increase of research publications across time was linear. Full-text search retrieved ten times more SDM publications than a similar PubMed search (1285 vs. 119 respectively). CONCLUSION: This review in full-text showed that SDM publications increased exponentially in major medical journals from 1996 to 2011. This growth might reflect an increased dissemination of the SDM concept to the medical community.

Spatio-temporal trends of mortality in small areas of Southern Spain

Background: Most mortality atlases show static maps from count data aggregated over time. This procedure has several methodological problems and serious limitations for decision making in Public Health. The evaluation of health outcomes, including mortality, should be approached from a dynamic time perspective that is specific for each gender and age group. At the moment, researches in Spain do not provide a dynamic image of the population’s mortality status from a spatio-temporal point of view. The aim of this paper is to describe the spatial distribution of mortality from all causes in small areas of Andalusia (Southern Spain) and evolution over time from 1981 to 2006. Methods: A small-area ecological study was devised using the municipality as the unit for analysis. Two spatiotemporal hierarchical Bayesian models were estimated for each age group and gender. One of these was used to estimate the specific mortality rate, together with its time trends, and the other to estimate the specific rate ratio for each municipality compared with Spain as a whole. Results: More than 97% of the municipalities showed a diminishing or flat mortality trend in all gender and age groups. In 2006, over 95% of municipalities showed male and female mortality specific rates similar or significantly lower than Spanish rates for all age groups below 65. Systematically, municipalities in Western Andalusia showed significant male and female mortality excess from 1981 to 2006 only in age groups over 65. Conclusions: The study shows a dynamic geographical distribution of mortality, with a different pattern for each year, gender and age group. This information will contribute towards a reflection on the past, present and future of mortality in Andalusia.

Current epidemiological trends for Chagas disease in Latin America and future challenges in epidemiology, surveillance and health policy

Chagas disease, named after Carlos Chagas, who first described it in 1909, exists only on the American Continent. It is caused by a parasite, Trypanosoma cruzi, which is transmitted to humans by blood-sucking triatomine bugs and via blood transfusion. Chagas disease has two successive phases: acute and chronic. The acute phase lasts six-eight weeks. Several years after entering the chronic phase, 20-35% of infected individuals, depending on the geographical area, will develop irreversible lesions of the autonomous nervous system in the heart, oesophagus and colon, and of the peripheral nervous system. Data on the prevalence and distribution of Chagas disease improved in quality during the 1980s as a result of the demographically representative cross-sectional studies in countries where accurate information was not previously available. A group of experts met in Brasilia in 1979 and devised standard protocols to carry out countrywide prevalence studies on human T. cruzi infection and triatomine house infestation. Thanks to a coordinated multi-country programme in the Southern Cone countries, the transmission of Chagas disease by vectors and via blood transfusion was interrupted in Uruguay in 1997, in Chile in 1999 and in Brazil in 2006; thus, the incidence of new infections by T. cruzi across the South American continent has decreased by 70%. Similar multi-country initiatives have been launched in the Andean countries and in Central America and rapid progress has been reported towards the goal of interrupting the transmission of Chagas disease, as requested by a 1998 Resolution of the World Health Assembly. The cost-benefit analysis of investment in the vector control programme in Brazil indicates that there are savings of US$17 in medical care and disabilities for each dollar spent on prevention, showing that the programme is a health investment with very high return. Many well-known research institutions in Latin America were key elements of a worldwide network of laboratories that carried out basic and applied research supporting the planning and evaluation of national Chagas disease control programmes. The present article reviews the current epidemiological trends for Chagas disease in Latin America and the future challenges in terms of epidemiology, surveillance and health policy.

Towards economic and monetary union: changing trends in payment systems for new european members

The objective of this paper is preciselyto study the evolution of payment systems within the accession countries between 1996 and 2003 and compare them with those of the E.U. and the Eurozone countries

Analysing trends in cardiovascular mortality: some methodological points.

This paper comments on the drop in coronary heart disease mortality observed in Switzerland among middle-aged men since the mid-seventies. Several methodological points are made regarding the consistency of this decline (relationships with mortality from other causes), and the reasons for this drop (possible change in population mix). It is suggested that a more complete use of vital statistics is still possible and that this can provide useful clues for the assessment and the interpretation of mortality trends in the field of cardiovascular epidemiology.