青藏高原东部混农季节性放牧及其对高山林线格局的影响

混农季节性放牧（agropastoral transhumance）通过作物种植和畜牧生产相结合的方式对不同海拔高度带上的资源进行相互补充利用，在亚洲兴都库什地区、青藏高原、横断山、东部及南部非洲、南美安第斯地区等具有悠久的历史。这种传统的生计系统几千年以来一直是居住在该地区的人类社会和自然生态系统相互作用的主要形式之一。这种传统的资源利用方式与山地自然植被以及特殊的山地人类文化和社会特征具有密切的协同演变关系。认识和理解这一关系，是山地生态学和人类学的核心科学问题之一。近年来，山地生态系统的多重功能性及动态演变对山区社会经济可持续发展的重要意义受到人们的不断关注。本文通过对云南省德钦县的12个自然村的混农季节性放牧以及对云南德钦、四川壤塘等山地植被格局特别是高海拔地带植被格局的的详细调查，探讨青藏高原东缘地区混农季节性放牧的主要特征、系统构成及相互关系，及其在全球变化、经济全球化和市场化及现代化过程中的变化趋势，分析混农季节性放牧与高山林线格局及生态系统的互动关系，旨在探讨山地地区人类活动与自然生态系统之间的互动关系，从而为山区社会经济可持续发展、环境建设和生物多样性保护等国家战略提供理论依据。 调查结果表明，混农季节性放牧是一种适应青藏高原东部高山峡谷地区环境因子及自然资源呈明显的垂直分布、资源数量稀少而时空分布异质性极高的生存环境的一种传统经济形式。这种传统的畜牧业的主要生产目的仍然是提供当地基本生存所需的产品，饲养牲口的种类和数量取决于农户的当地需求并且受资源的限制，因而维持在比较低的水平的。分布在不同海拔高度的放牧资源在一年中被牲口利用的时间也不同，互为补充，共同构成混农季节性放牧的资源基础。根据各社区永久居住点的位置和该村的土地资源特别是牧草地资源的分布范围，牲口迁移的距离和格局有较大的差异。。天然牧场仍然是最主要的畜牧业生产资源。混农季节性放牧中的农业系统和牧业系统互为补充，共同构成调查地区完整的的生计系统，农耕活动为放牧活动提供精饲料如粮食等和冬季饲料如秸秆， 其数量往往成为家庭畜牧业生产规模的主要决定因子之一。 通过对牲口数量和结构、牲口的时空迁移格局、牧业活动在整个经济活动中的相对重要性以及牧业活动和作物种植的关系方面的研究分析，混农季节性放牧在近几十年发生了深刻的变化。主要表现在牲口数量总体下降，牲口组成发生变化，牲口移动性降低、牧业活动的经济重要性下降以及牧业活动和种植活动之间的相互依存度降低等。上述变化的根本驱动力是发生在当地、地区及全球尺度上的环境、政治、社会经济、技术和文化等的变化，从而造成当地群众畜牧生产目标、土地利用和劳动力的分布等发生了变化。当地生计系统发生的改变可能会带来对方面而深刻的政治、社会经济、文化和生态影响。 混农季节性放牧这种古老的传统生计策略面临着许多挑战，如冬季饲料短缺、草场退化、缺乏市场竞争力、经济重要性降低、对年轻人缺乏吸引力、国家缺乏专门的政策指导等。与此同时，经济全球化、市场经济、新技术的应用、替代生计机会的增加、国家对于山地生态系统的作用的重新定位等也为传统生计系统转型、实现社会与生态共赢创造了机遇。 混农季节性放牧活动对亚高山及树线交错带生态系统系统的互动方式主要体现在以下几个方面：（1）牲口啃食、践踏等影响森林群落更新，改变森林群落的组成和结构，从而影响森林群落的演替进程和植被格局。林线边缘是搭建夏棚的首选地点，因此林线及树线交错地带就成了牲口活动的主要场所之一；（2）利用火烧开辟、维持和改良高山牧场； 3）在亚高山火灾迹地的放牧活动能够阻止火烧迹地的顺向演替； 4）牧民在林线附近获取建材和薪材等活动影响高山林线附近森林的结构和功能。 在调查区域，梅里雪山、白马雪山、甲午雪山的林线海拔高度在4200-4300m之间； 四川雅江、理塘一线，林线位置多在4300-4400m；四川壤塘二林场一带的林线主体在4100-4200m，在个别地区达到4300m； 在贡嘎山的南坡和东坡一带，林线位置在3600-3700m；而在四川松潘一带，林线位置主体在3700-3800米左右。树线高度的分布趋势和林线一致。混农季节性放牧及其有关人类利用活动使研究地区很多地方高山林线降低、树线交错带宽变窄或消失。在研究地区，总体情况是，阳坡和半阳坡（南坡、西南坡等）的林线和树线比阴坡和半阴坡（北坡、东北坡等）低，变化幅度达20-200m。这种差异主要是为了开辟牧场而人为清除了南向坡自然林线及其以上的植被从而使林线位置下降所致。在南坡自然林线保留得比较好的地方，林线和树线依然可以达到甚至超过北坡林线和树线的高度。放牧活动抑制了高山林线带火烧迹地的天然更新，从而使林线位置保持在目前的位置。 放牧活动对高山林线带森林群落更新的影响是显著的。自然林线内的乔木个体密度特别是新生苗和幼苗的密度大大高于非自然林线。没有放牧的自然林线及树线交错带内的I级个体（新生苗）密度达到725-2917株/公顷，而与之相对的处理样地内I级个体的密度只有0-228株/公顷；II级个体（高度10-50cm）也表现出类似的趋势，在没有放牧的自然林线及树线交错带样方内，其密度达到550-5208株/，而在放牧处理样方内只有14-321株/公顷。在非自然林线带样地内，在有正常放牧的样地内，完全缺乏I级个体。 从相对比例来看，没有放牧的样方内的I、II级个体在全部个体中所占的比例显著高于有放牧活动的样方。放牧使林线交错带的乔木幼苗数量显著减少，从而影响林线及树线交错带森林群落的天然更新过程。林线和树线交错带的灌木对乔木幼苗具有重要的保护作用，能够为树线树种如冷杉等幼苗的定居体提供有利的微气候环境，同时保护苗免受牲口的啃食和践踏。火烧以后接着进行放牧能够100%地抑制高山林线带的幼苗更新。 高山牧场放牧强度降低、使用时间缩短而低海拔地带放牧强度增加是研究地区混农季节性放牧系统的一个显著变化。这种变化也必然会引起各海拔带上的生态系统的变化。放牧强度的降低、生产性用火的停止将导致原来通过人工火烧而降低并通过进一步的火烧和放牧活动来维持的林线及其以上地带的灌木盖度和高度的增加，从而为林线森林群落的扩张创造条件。 青藏高原东部高山峡谷地区是我国重要的山地生态系统，在我国的生物多样性保护、生态环境建设、社会经济可持续发展战略中具有举足轻重的作用。正确认识人类特别是当地传统的生计系统与生态环境系统的互动关系是实现上述战略目标的前提。决策者必须以综合、系统的的视角协调促进社会经济可持续发展、保护生物及文化多样性和维持人、牲口和生态系统之间的平衡的多重目标。 Agropastoral transhumance, which makes a complementary exploitation of the natural resources at different altitudinal belts through a combination of migratory animal husbandry and crop cultivation, has a long history in Hindu-Kush Himalaya, Tibet Plateau, Hengduan Ranges, eastern and southern Africa and the Andes region of south America.For millennia, this traditional livelihood strategy has been one of the main forms of interaction between human societies inhabiting in these regions and their natural ecocystems. A close co-evolutionary relationship has been developed between this indigenous resources management systems and the mountain vegetation systems on the one hand and a unique set of cultural values and social features on the other. Understanding this relationship has been one of the core scientific issues in mountain ecology and anthropology. In recent years, the importance of the multiple functions of the mountain ecosystems and their dynamic changes in the sustainable socio-economic development of the mountain regions has gained increasing attention. This paper, which is based on a detailed study on the agropastoral practices of the 12 natural villages in Deqin County of Yunnan, and the mountainnn vegetation patterns in Deqin of Yunnan and Rangtang County of Sichuan, intends to reveal the major characteristics, system composition and the inter-relations of the subsystems of the agropastoral transhumance in Eastern Tibetan Plateau as well as the trends of changes of the system within the context of global changes, economic globalization and modernity process of China and analyze the relations between agropastoral transhumance and alpine ecosystem, ao as to understand the interactions between human activities and natural ecosystems of the mountains and provide theoretical basis for the national strategies in eocioeconomic development, environmental reconstruction and biodiversity conservation in the mountain regions. Results of the survey indicate that agropastoral transhumance in the investigated area is a traditional economic form that is highly adapted to the eastern Tibet Plateau where the topography features high peaks and deep gorges and where the highly variable environmental parameters and scanty natural resources exhibit a distinct vertical spectrum of distribution and great temporal and spatial heterogeneity. The main objective of pastoral management is still aimed at the production of basic goods and services of local people and thus the type and size of animals raised for each household mainly depend on local needs and are limited by the availability of natural resources. The scale of production is relatively low. Pastoral resources at different altidudinal belts are complementarily used at different seasons of a year and thus form the resources basis for agropastoral production of the study area. Migration distances and patterns vary with the location of the permanent settlements, the elevational distribution range of the resources of the villages concerned. Natural pastures (rangelands) are the main fodder resources and sumplement feedings only account for less than 5% of the total fodder consumption. Crop cultivation and pastoral activities support each other to form a complete livelihood system. The ability of the farmig lands (crop cultivation) to provide the pastoral activities with concentrates and sumplements often becomes a main factor limiting the scale of livestock production at household level. Agropastoral transhumance is experiencing drastic changes in recent decades as is reflected in the size and composition of animals, the seasonal migration pattern, the relative importance of pastoralism in the household economy and the interplays of agricultural and pastoral elements of the system. In general, there is a decline in animal population and mobility, a shift in animal composition to meet new needs arising from changed macro-economic situation, a decrease in the relative importance in the household economy and an increasing decoupling of agro&pastoral relations. The fundamental divers of these changes can be traced to environmental, social, economic, technological and cultural changes from local to global levels and such changes have further caused local changes in livestock management objectives, land use and distribution of labor forces. Changes in local livelihood systems could have profound political, socioeconomic, cultural and ecological conseuquences. Agropastoral transhumance, as an age-old traditional livelihood strategy, is facing multifacet challenges, such as winter fodder shortage, rangeland degradation, lack of market competitiveness, decrease in economic importance, lack of appreciation among the young generation and adequate policies from the government. At the same time, economic globalization, market economy, intrdoctution of new technologies, increase of alternative income generating opportunities and the national re-oreitation of policies on mountain ecosystems have all brought about new opportunities for the transformation of the traditional livelihood system and the synchronized development of local society and the environment. Agropastoral transhumance interacts with the ecosystems at the timberline and treeline ecotone mainly through the following aspects: 1)Animal browsing and stamping affect the regeneration process of the forest communities and alters the composition and structure of the forest which in turn affect the succession process and vegetation pattern of the forest communities. Forest edges are the priority locations for summer houses and therefore the timeline and treeline area becomes the major venues of aninal activities; （2）herders create, maintain and improve pastures through burning that remove the forest communities at the timeline and treeline ecotone; 3）immediate grazing on the fire sites can significantly prevent the fire sites from perogressive succession; and 4）herders harvesting of construction timber and firewoods affects the structure and functions of the forest communities at the timberline and treeline zone. Timberline position in the survey region shows geographical variations. It is around 4200-4300m in Meilixueshan, Baimaxueshan and Jiawuxueshan in Northwest of Yunnan and rises to 4300-4400m in Yajiang County and Litang County of Sichuan. In Rangtang of Sichuan, it is between 4100-4200m, though reaching 4300m in localized sites. In the southern and eastern slopes of Gongga Mountain, the timberline is only between 3600m and 3700m and in Songpan County at the upper reach of the Minjiang River the timberline is around 3700-3800m.Treeline pattern follows similar trend. In many places, agropastoral transhumance and related human activities have lowered the timberline and treeline and narrowed or removed the treeline ecotone. In the area of survey, generally speaking, timberlines and treelines are lower on the southern slopes than on the northern slopes, with a difference between 20 and 200m. This is mainly because that the use of fires to crerate pastures has removed the forest vegetation at the previous timberline and above. In fact, in many places, well-preserved forests on the south slopes have even high timberline position that the corresponding northern slopes. At subalpine zone, grazing activities could have prohibited the natural regeneration of many forest fire sites and maintained the forest position at the present level. Grazing has a significant impact on the regernation process of forest communities at the timberline zone. Natural timberline and treeline ecotone has much higher density of treeline species individuals especially the emergents and seedlings than the timberlines that are maintained by human activities. In natural timberline and treelien ecotone without grazing interference, the density of the I Class seedlings (less than 10cm in height) ranges 725-2917 /hm2; while that in the treatment plots (with grazing disturbance) is only 0-228//hm2；II Class seedlings (10-50cm）exhibit similar density trends, reaching 550-5208//hm2 in natural timberline without grazing but only 14-321//hm2 in the plots with grazing treatment. In the man-created timberlines, there is no I Class seedling at all in plots with normal grazing activities. In relative terms, in plots without grazing activities, the propotion of I Class and II Class seedlings is much higher than that in plots with grazing. Grazing activities have significantly reduced the number of seedlings in the timberline ane treeline ecotone, and thus affect the natural regeneration process of the forests. Shrubs at the timberline and treeline ecotone can effectively protect the seedlings from severe climate and animal tramping, thus increasing the survival rate of the seedlings. Grazing following fires can completely inhibit forest regeneration process at timberline. Changes in agropastoral transhumance will have great impact on the timberline and treeline pattern of the studied area. The decrease in grazing intensity on alpine pastrues and the cessation of the use of fires will result an increase in the cover and height of shrubs above the present human-maintained treeline, which will create further condition for the expansion of timberline forest communities. Eastern Tibet Plateau harbors some most important mountain ecosystems of China that are of vital importance to the country’s strategy in biodiversity conservation, environmental construction and sustainable sociaoeconomic development. A proper knowledge of the interactions between traditional livelihood systems and the ecosystems in the region is a precondition to the realization of the above strategic goals. Therefore, the decision-makers must have a holistic and systemic perspective so as to integrate the multiple objectives of promoting sustainable socioeconomic development, conserving biological and cultural diversity and maintaining the balances among people, animal population and the ecosystems.

黄土高原22万年来的黑碳记录和古火灾害历史重建

The term black carbon is used to describe a relatively inert and ubiquitous form of carbon, comprising a range of materials from char and charcoal to element or graphite carbon produced by the incomplete combustion of fossil fuels and biomass. Due to its inertness, the BC in soils, lacustrine and marine sediments and ice can persist over a long period of time. So BC signatures in geological deposits can be used as evidence of natural fires happened in their surroundings. To study the temporal and spatial changes in paleofires over the Chinese Loess Plateau, black carbon concentrations were analyzed on the loess-paleosol samples from three sections including Lijiayuan, Lingtai and Weinan along a north-south transect. Using the orbitally-tuned time-scales of the sections, the black carbon sedimentation rates (BCSR) were calculated. Meanwhile, with objective to document fine resolution fire history during late Pleistocene and Holocene periods, we measured BC concentrations of loess-paleosol samples at dense sampling intervals since 28 ka BP. in Lijiayuan section. The BCSR of the samples were also calculated. In addition, we also conducted observation on black carbon morphologies to examine their sources. Based on the results, the following remarks can be concluded: 1. In the last two glacial cycles, the BCSR values in glacial periods are 2-3 times higher than in interglacial periods, and the BCSR variability has a relatively strong precession-associated 23 kyr period, suggesting that the glacial cold-dry climate conditions were apt to induce natural fires over the Loess Plateau, 2. Comparison of the BCSR records among the three loess sections demonstrates that natural fire occurrence was much more intensive and frequent in the northern and interglacial periods. 3. Pollen records and carbon isotope analyses of organic matter have shown that the Loess Plateau was covered by an Artemisia-dominated grassland vegetation both during glacial and interglacial periods, So grassland fires were the dominant fire types in the Plateau, which is also corroborated by the observation of black carbon morphology. In addition, statistics and comparison of BC particle sizes among the sections demonstrated that BC records probably reflected local fires. 4. According to previous studies about the effect of fires on vegetation changes, we considered that the fires might play an important role in the expansion of grassland during glacial periods, besides the control of climate changes. 5. The high resolution black carbon record in Lijiayuan section has shown that the BCSR series well documented Younger dryas (YD) and Heinrich (HI和H2) events, suggesting that natural fires in the northwestern part of Chinese Loess Plateau could regularly respond to the millennial scale climate oscillation.

The Exodus evacuation model applied to building evacuation scenarios

The purpose of this paper is to demonstrate the potential of the EXODUS evacuation model in building environments. The latest PC/workstation version of EXODUS is described and is also applied to a large hypothetical supermarket/restaurant complex measuring 50 m x 40 m. A range of scenarios is presented where population characteristics (such as size, individual travel speeds, and individual response times), and enclosure configuration characteristics (such as number of exits, size of exits, and opening times of exits) are varied. The results demonstrate a wide range of occupant behavior including overtaking, queuing, redirection, and conflict avoidance. Evacuation performance is measured by a number of model predicted parameters including individual exit flow rates, overall evacuation flow rates, total evacuation time, average evacuation time per occupant, average travel distance, and average wait time. The simulations highlight the profound impact that variations in individual travel speeds and occupant response times have in determining the overall evacuation performance. 1. Jin, T., and Yamada T., "Experimental Study of Human Behavior in Smoke Filled Corridors," Proceedings of The Second International Symposium on Fire Safety Science, 1988, pp. 511-519. 2. Galea, E.R., and Galparsoro, J.M.P., "EXODUS: An Evacuation Model for Mass Transport Vehicles," UK CAA Paper 93006 ISBN 086039 543X, CAA London, 1993. 3. Galea, E.R., and Galparsoro, J.M.P., "A Computer Based Simulation Model for the Prediction of Evacuation from Mass Transport Vehicles," Fire Safety Journal, Vol. 22, 1994, pp. 341-366. 4. Galea, E.R., Owen, M., and Lawrence, P., "Computer Modeling of Human Be havior in Aircraft Fire Accidents," to appear in the Proceedings of Combus tion Toxicology Symposium, CAMI, Oklahoma City, OK, 1995. 5. Kisko, T.M. and Francis, R.L., "EVACNET+: A Computer Program to Determine Optimal Building Evacuation Plans," Fire Safety Journal, Vol. 9, 1985, pp. 211-220. 6. Levin, B., "EXITT, A Simulation Model of Occupant Decisions and Actions in Residential Fires," Proceedings of The Second International Symposium on Fire Safety Science, 1988, pp. 561-570. 7. Fahy, R.F., "EXIT89: An Evacuation Model for High-Rise Buildings," Pro ceedings of The Third International Sym posium on Fire Safety Science, 1991, pp. 815-823. 8. Thompson, P.A., and Marchant, E.W., "A Computer Model for the Evacuation of Large Building Populations," Fire Safety Journal, Vol. 24, 1995, pp. 131-148. 9. Still, K., "New Computer System Can Predict Human Behavior Response to Building Fires," FIRE 84, 1993, pp. 40-41. 10. Ketchell, N., Cole, S.S., Webber, D.M., et.al., "The Egress Code for Human Move ment and Behavior in Emergency Evacu ations," Engineering for Crowd Safety (Smith, R.A., and Dickie, J.F., Eds.), Elsevier, 1993, pp. 361-370. 11. Takahashi, K., Tanaka, T. and Kose, S., "An Evacuation Model for Use in Fire Safety Design of Buildings," Proceedings of The Second International Symposium on Fire Safety Science, 1988, pp. 551- 560. 12. G2 Reference Manual, Version 3.0, Gensym Corporation, Cambridge, MA. 13. XVT Reference Manual, Version 3.0 XVT Software Inc., Boulder, CO. 14. Galea, E.R., "On the Field Modeling Approach to the Simulation of Enclosure Fires, Journal of Fire Protection Engineering, Vol. 1, No. 1, 1989, pp. 11-22. 15. Purser, D.A., "Toxicity Assessment of Combustion Products," SFPE Handbook of Fire Protection Engineering, National Fire Protection Association, Quincy, MA, pp. 1-200 - 1-245, 1988. 16. Hankin, B.D., and Wright, R.A., "Pas senger Flows in Subways," Operational Research Quarterly, Vol. 9, 1958, pp. 81-88. 17. HMSO, The Building Regulations 1991 - Approved Document B, section B 1 (1992 edition), HMSO publications, London, pp. 9-40. 18. Polus A., Schofer, J.L., and Ushpiz, A., "Pedestrian Flow and Level of Service," Journal of Transportation Engineering, Vol. 109, 1983, pp. 46-47. 19. Muir, H., Marrison, C., and Evans, A., "Aircraft Evacuations: the Effect of Passenger Motivation and Cabin Con figuration Adjacent to the Exit," CAA Paper 89019, ISBN 0 86039 406 9, 1989. 20. Muir, H., Private communication to appear as a CAA report, 1996.

Airborne transport of Saharan dust to the Mediterranean and to the Atlantic

The Sahara desert is a significant source of particulate pollution not only to the Mediterranean region, but also to the Atlantic and beyond. In this paper, PM 10 exceedences recorded in the UK and the island of Crete are studied and their source investigated, using Lagrangian Particle Dispersion (LPD) methods. Forward and inverse simulations identify Saharan dust storms as the primary source of these episodes. The methodology used allows comparison between this primary source and other possible candidates, for example large forest fires or volcanic eruptions. Two LPD models are used in the simulations, namely the open source code FLEXPART and the proprietary code HYSPLIT. Driven by the same meteorological fields (the ECMWF MARS archive and the PSU/NCAR Mesoscale model, known as MM5) the codes produce similar, but not identical predictions. This inter-model comparison enables a critical assessment of the physical modelling assumptions employed in each code, plus the influence of boundary conditions and solution grid density. The outputs, in the form of particle concentrations evolving in time, are compared against satellite images and receptor data from multiple ground-based sites. Quantitative comparisons are good, especially in predicting the time of arrival of the dust plume in a particular location.

Predicting toxic species concentrations in a full-scale vitiated fire

A toxicity model on dividing the computational domain into two parts, a control region (CR) and a transport region (TR), for species calculation was recently developed. The model can be incorporated with either the heat source approach or the eddy dissipation model (EDM). The work described in this paper is a further application of the toxicity model with modifications of the EDM for vitiated fires. In the modified EDM, chemical reaction only occurs within the CR. This is consistent with the approach used in the species concentration calculations within the toxicity model in which yields of combustion products only change within the CR. A vitiated large room-corridor fire, in which the carbon monoxide (CM) concentrations are very high and the temperatures are relatively low at locations distant from the original fire source, is simulated using the modified EDM coupled with the toxicity model. Compared with the EDM, the modified EDM provide significant improvements in the predictions of temperatures at remote locations. Predictions of species concentrations at various locations follow the measured trends. Good agreements between the measured and predicted species concentrations are obtained at the vitiated fire stage.

Predicting the likely impact of aircraft post crash fire on aircraft evacuation using fire and evacuation simulation

The SMARTFIRE Computational Fluid Dynamics (CFD) fire field model has successfully reproduced the observed characteristics including measured temperatures, species concentrations and time to flashover for a post-crash fire experiment conducted by the FAA within their C-133 cabin test facility. In this test only one exit was open in order to provide ventilation for the developing cabin fire. In real post-crash fires, many exits are likely to be open as passangers attempt to evacuate. In this paper, the likely impacts on evacuation of a post-crash fire in which various exiting combinations are available are investigated. The fire scenario, investigated using the SMARTFIRE software, is based on the C-133 experiment but with a fully furnished cabin and with four different exit availability options. The fire data is imported into the airEXODUS evacuation simulation software and the resulting evacuations examined. The combined fire and evacuation analysis reveals that even though the aircraft configuration is predicted to comfortably satisfy the evacuation certification requirement, when fire is included, a number of casualties result, even from the certification compliant exit configuration.

Evaluating the SEVIRI Fire Thermal Anomaly Detection Algorithm across the Central African Republic Using the MODIS Active Fire Product

Satellite-based remote sensing of active fires is the only practical way to consistently and continuously monitor diurnal fluctuations in biomass burning from regional, to continental, to global scales. Failure to understand, quantify, and communicate the performance of an active fire detection algorithm, however, can lead to improper interpretations of the spatiotemporal distribution of biomass burning, and flawed estimates of fuel consumption and trace gas and aerosol emissions. This work evaluates the performance of the Spinning Enhanced Visible and Infrared Imager (SEVIRI) Fire Thermal Anomaly (FTA) detection algorithm using seven months of active fire pixels detected by the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) across the Central African Republic (CAR). Results indicate that the omission rate of the SEVIRI FTA detection algorithm relative to MODIS varies spatially across the CAR, ranging from 25% in the south to 74% in the east. In the absence of confounding artifacts such as sunglint, uncertainties in the background thermal characterization, and cloud cover, the regional variation in SEVIRI's omission rate can be attributed to a coupling between SEVIRI's low spatial resolution detection bias (i.e., the inability to detect fires below a certain size and intensity) and a strong geographic gradient in active fire characteristics across the CAR. SEVIRI's commission rate relative to MODIS increases from 9% when evaluated near MODIS nadir to 53% near the MODIS scene edges, indicating that SEVIRI errors of commission at the MODIS scene edges may not be false alarms but rather true fires that MODIS failed to detect as a result of larger pixel sizes at extreme MODIS scan angles. Results from this work are expected to facilitate (i) future improvements to the SEVIRI FTA detection algorithm; (ii) the assimilation of the SEVIRI and MODIS active fire products; and (iii) the potential inclusion of SEVIRI into a network of geostationary sensors designed to achieve global diurnal active fire monitoring.

Global oceanic emission of ammonia: Constraints from seawater and atmospheric observations

Current global inventories of ammonia emissions identify the ocean as the largest natural source. This source depends on seawater pH, temperature, and the concentration of total seawater ammonia (NHx(sw)), which reflects a balance between remineralization of organic matter, uptake by plankton, and nitrification. Here we compare [NHx(sw)] from two global ocean biogeochemical models (BEC and COBALT) against extensive ocean observations. Simulated [NHx(sw)] are generally biased high. Improved simulation can be achieved in COBALT by increasing the plankton affinity for NHx within observed ranges. The resulting global ocean emissions is 2.5 TgN a−1, much lower than current literature values (7–23 TgN a−1), including the widely used Global Emissions InitiAtive (GEIA) inventory (8 TgN a−1). Such a weak ocean source implies that continental sources contribute more than half of atmospheric NHx over most of the ocean in the Northern Hemisphere. Ammonia emitted from oceanic sources is insufficient to neutralize sulfate aerosol acidity, consistent with observations. There is evidence over the Equatorial Pacific for a missing source of atmospheric ammonia that could be due to photolysis of marine organic nitrogen at the ocean surface or in the atmosphere. Accommodating this possible missing source yields a global ocean emission of ammonia in the range 2–5 TgN a−1, comparable in magnitude to other natural sources from open fires and soils.

Problems of dynamic in mediterranean forests

The mediterranean forest ecosystems constitute a complex unit which is marked off the Northern and middle European ones by its climate, ecology and management.The ecosystems are related to a climate with estival droughtlasting from 1 to 6 months and the peculiar species which constitute them are generally not worth much.The anthropic pressure exerts especially by grazing and moreover they have been stricken by dramatic fires for many decades. Their large variety related to the bioclimatic and edaphic heterogeneity of the region can explain why the data concerning their functioning and dynamics are still fragmentary. Besides, their ecological and pedological characteristics make uneasy the use of schemes and patterns designed for middle european forests.

Attitudes to community relations in Northern Ireland: signs of optimisim in the post-cease fire period?

This article uses attitudinal data to explore Catholic and Protestant perspectives on community relations and equality since the paramilitary cease fires in 1994. Although attitudes tend to fluctuate with the‘headline grabbing'events of the day, the article argues that there are signs that some fundamental changes have taken place in the post cease fire period. Of particular importance in this regard is the positive response recorded by the Catholic community towards government measures to tackle disadvantage and inequality. Equally significant is the protestant response to many of these measures which is often one of ambivalence rather than derision. In so far as the data appear to challenge the‘zero-sum'game that traditionally underpins relations between the two communities in Northern Ireland, they provide some grounds for optimism. Yet such optimism is tempered somewhat by the seeds of discontent which are manifest within the protestant community, particularly around issues of equality in employment and cultural traditions. Despite the more positive assessment of community relations and equality in 2002, it is argued that further monitoring will be required to determine the long-term effects of policy reform on relationships between the two communit

The Holocene British and Irish ancient woodland fossil beetle fauna: implications for forest history, biodiversity and faunal colonisation

This paper presents a new review of our knowledge of the ancient forest beetle fauna from Holocene archaeological and palaeoecological sites in Great Britain and Ireland. It examines the colonisation, dispersal and decline of beetle species, highlighting the scale and nature of human activities in the shaping of the landscape of the British Isles. In particular, the paper discusses effects upon the insect fauna, and examines in detail the fossil record from the Humberhead Levels, eastern England. It discusses the local extirpation of up to 40 species in Britain and 15 species in Ireland. An evaluation of the timing of extirpations is made, suggesting that many species in Britain disappear from the fossil record between c. 3000 cal BC and 1000 cal BC (c. 5000-3000 cal BP), although some taxa may well have survived until considerably later. In Ireland, there are two distinct trends, with a group of species which seem to be absent after c. 2000 cal BC (c. 4000 cal BP) and a further group which survives until at least as late as the medieval period. The final clearance of the Irish landscape over the last few hundred years was so dramatic, however, that some species which are not especially unusual in a British context were decimated. Reasons behind the extirpation of taxa are examined in detail, and include a combination of forest clearance and human activities, isolation of populations, lack of temporal continuity of habitats, edaphic and competition factors affecting distribution of host trees (particularly pine), lack of forest fires and a decline in open forest systems. The role of climate change in extirpations is also evaluated. Consideration is given to the significance of these specialised ancient forest inhabitants in Ireland in the absence of an early Holocene land-bridge which suggests that colonisation was aided by other mechanisms, such as human activities and wood-rafting. Finally, the paper discusses the Continental origins of the British and Irish fauna and its hosts and the role played by European glacial refugia.

Response of surface horizons in an oak forest to prescribed burning

The reduction of forest floor ground cover and litter layers by prescribed fires may alter the morphology (field and micro) and physical properties of surface horizons. This study determined long-term (35 yr) changes in surface horizon bulk density, organic matter concentration and content, and morphology in response to periodic (5 yr) and annual (1 yr) prescribed fires. Soils were fine-silty, siliceous, thermic Glossic Fragiuldults, supporting mixed oak vegetation in middle Tennessee. Upper mineral soils (0- to 2-cm and 0- to 7.6-cm depths) were sampled and detailed field descriptions made. Periodic and control plots had a thin layer of Oi, Oe, and Oa horizons 5 yr after the 1993 burn, whereas on annual burn plots a 1- to 2-cm charred layer was present. Significant reductions in organic matter concentration and mean thickness of the A horizon were found from burning (A horizons thicknesses were 6.4, 4.6, and 2.9 cm in control, periodic, and annual plots, respectively). Periodic burns did not significantly alter the organic matter and bulk density of the upper 7.6 cm of mineral soil; however, annual burns did result in significantly higher bulk densities (1.01, 1.07, and 1.29 Mg m-3 in control, periodic, and annual plots, respectively) and lower organic matter concentrations and contents. Microscopic investigations confirmed that compaction was increased from annual burning. Thin sections also revealed that the granular structure of the A horizons in control and periodic plots resulted from bioterbation of macro and mesofauna, fungi, and roots. Long-term annual burning greatly affected surface soil properties, whereas periodic burning on a 5-yr cycle had only limited effects.