Behavioural queueing : cellular automata and a laboratory experiment

Dans cette thèse, nous étudions les aspects comportementaux d'agents qui interagissent dans des systèmes de files d'attente à l'aide de modèles de simulation et de méthodologies expérimentales. Chaque période les clients doivent choisir un prestataire de servivce. L'objectif est d'analyser l'impact des décisions des clients et des prestataires sur la formation des files d'attente. Dans un premier cas nous considérons des clients ayant un certain degré d'aversion au risque. Sur la base de leur perception de l'attente moyenne et de la variabilité de cette attente, ils forment une estimation de la limite supérieure de l'attente chez chacun des prestataires. Chaque période, ils choisissent le prestataire pour lequel cette estimation est la plus basse. Nos résultats indiquent qu'il n'y a pas de relation monotone entre le degré d'aversion au risque et la performance globale. En effet, une population de clients ayant un degré d'aversion au risque intermédiaire encoure généralement une attente moyenne plus élevée qu'une population d'agents indifférents au risque ou très averses au risque. Ensuite, nous incorporons les décisions des prestataires en leur permettant d'ajuster leur capacité de service sur la base de leur perception de la fréquence moyenne d'arrivées. Les résultats montrent que le comportement des clients et les décisions des prestataires présentent une forte "dépendance au sentier". En outre, nous montrons que les décisions des prestataires font converger l'attente moyenne pondérée vers l'attente de référence du marché. Finalement, une expérience de laboratoire dans laquelle des sujets jouent le rôle de prestataire de service nous a permis de conclure que les délais d'installation et de démantèlement de capacité affectent de manière significative la performance et les décisions des sujets. En particulier, les décisions du prestataire, sont influencées par ses commandes en carnet, sa capacité de service actuellement disponible et les décisions d'ajustement de capacité qu'il a prises, mais pas encore implémentées. - Queuing is a fact of life that we witness daily. We all have had the experience of waiting in line for some reason and we also know that it is an annoying situation. As the adage says "time is money"; this is perhaps the best way of stating what queuing problems mean for customers. Human beings are not very tolerant, but they are even less so when having to wait in line for service. Banks, roads, post offices and restaurants are just some examples where people must wait for service. Studies of queuing phenomena have typically addressed the optimisation of performance measures (e.g. average waiting time, queue length and server utilisation rates) and the analysis of equilibrium solutions. The individual behaviour of the agents involved in queueing systems and their decision making process have received little attention. Although this work has been useful to improve the efficiency of many queueing systems, or to design new processes in social and physical systems, it has only provided us with a limited ability to explain the behaviour observed in many real queues. In this dissertation we differ from this traditional research by analysing how the agents involved in the system make decisions instead of focusing on optimising performance measures or analysing an equilibrium solution. This dissertation builds on and extends the framework proposed by van Ackere and Larsen (2004) and van Ackere et al. (2010). We focus on studying behavioural aspects in queueing systems and incorporate this still underdeveloped framework into the operations management field. In the first chapter of this thesis we provide a general introduction to the area, as well as an overview of the results. In Chapters 2 and 3, we use Cellular Automata (CA) to model service systems where captive interacting customers must decide each period which facility to join for service. They base this decision on their expectations of sojourn times. Each period, customers use new information (their most recent experience and that of their best performing neighbour) to form expectations of sojourn time at the different facilities. Customers update their expectations using an adaptive expectations process to combine their memory and their new information. We label "conservative" those customers who give more weight to their memory than to the xiv Summary new information. In contrast, when they give more weight to new information, we call them "reactive". In Chapter 2, we consider customers with different degree of risk-aversion who take into account uncertainty. They choose which facility to join based on an estimated upper-bound of the sojourn time which they compute using their perceptions of the average sojourn time and the level of uncertainty. We assume the same exogenous service capacity for all facilities, which remains constant throughout. We first analyse the collective behaviour generated by the customers' decisions. We show that the system achieves low weighted average sojourn times when the collective behaviour results in neighbourhoods of customers loyal to a facility and the customers are approximately equally split among all facilities. The lowest weighted average sojourn time is achieved when exactly the same number of customers patronises each facility, implying that they do not wish to switch facility. In this case, the system has achieved the Nash equilibrium. We show that there is a non-monotonic relationship between the degree of risk-aversion and system performance. Customers with an intermediate degree of riskaversion typically achieve higher sojourn times; in particular they rarely achieve the Nash equilibrium. Risk-neutral customers have the highest probability of achieving the Nash Equilibrium. Chapter 3 considers a service system similar to the previous one but with risk-neutral customers, and relaxes the assumption of exogenous service rates. In this sense, we model a queueing system with endogenous service rates by enabling managers to adjust the service capacity of the facilities. We assume that managers do so based on their perceptions of the arrival rates and use the same principle of adaptive expectations to model these perceptions. We consider service systems in which the managers' decisions take time to be implemented. Managers are characterised by a profile which is determined by the speed at which they update their perceptions, the speed at which they take decisions, and how coherent they are when accounting for their previous decisions still to be implemented when taking their next decision. We find that the managers' decisions exhibit a strong path-dependence: owing to the initial conditions of the model, the facilities of managers with identical profiles can evolve completely differently. In some cases the system becomes "locked-in" into a monopoly or duopoly situation. The competition between managers causes the weighted average sojourn time of the system to converge to the exogenous benchmark value which they use to estimate their desired capacity. Concerning the managers' profile, we found that the more conservative Summary xv a manager is regarding new information, the larger the market share his facility achieves. Additionally, the faster he takes decisions, the higher the probability that he achieves a monopoly position. In Chapter 4 we consider a one-server queueing system with non-captive customers. We carry out an experiment aimed at analysing the way human subjects, taking on the role of the manager, take decisions in a laboratory regarding the capacity of a service facility. We adapt the model proposed by van Ackere et al (2010). This model relaxes the assumption of a captive market and allows current customers to decide whether or not to use the facility. Additionally the facility also has potential customers who currently do not patronise it, but might consider doing so in the future. We identify three groups of subjects whose decisions cause similar behavioural patterns. These groups are labelled: gradual investors, lumpy investors, and random investor. Using an autocorrelation analysis of the subjects' decisions, we illustrate that these decisions are positively correlated to the decisions taken one period early. Subsequently we formulate a heuristic to model the decision rule considered by subjects in the laboratory. We found that this decision rule fits very well for those subjects who gradually adjust capacity, but it does not capture the behaviour of the subjects of the other two groups. In Chapter 5 we summarise the results and provide suggestions for further work. Our main contribution is the use of simulation and experimental methodologies to explain the collective behaviour generated by customers' and managers' decisions in queueing systems as well as the analysis of the individual behaviour of these agents. In this way, we differ from the typical literature related to queueing systems which focuses on optimising performance measures and the analysis of equilibrium solutions. Our work can be seen as a first step towards understanding the interaction between customer behaviour and the capacity adjustment process in queueing systems. This framework is still in its early stages and accordingly there is a large potential for further work that spans several research topics. Interesting extensions to this work include incorporating other characteristics of queueing systems which affect the customers' experience (e.g. balking, reneging and jockeying); providing customers and managers with additional information to take their decisions (e.g. service price, quality, customers' profile); analysing different decision rules and studying other characteristics which determine the profile of customers and managers.

The rise and fall of icons of 'stolen childhood' since the adoption of the UN Convention on the Rights of the Child

In the past two decades, the iconography of victimhood mobilized by child rights advocates has changed significantly. In particular, the child victim of violence has replaced the street child as the dominant icon on the international agenda. Based on data from more than 300 documents produced between 1989 and 2009 and interviews with leading advocates, this article explores the diverging trajectories of iconic child victims. It follows the traces of the successive translations of the idea of âeuro~stolen childhoodâeuro? and locates them against the backdrop of evolutions in the childrenâeuro?s rights field.

Development of LRFD Procedures for Bridge Pile Foundations in Iowa, Volume I: An Electronic Database for PIle LOad Tests (PILOT), TR-573, 2011

For well over 100 years, the Working Stress Design (WSD) approach has been the traditional basis for geotechnical design with regard to settlements or failure conditions. However, considerable effort has been put forth over the past couple of decades in relation to the adoption of the Load and Resistance Factor Design (LRFD) approach into geotechnical design. With the goal of producing engineered designs with consistent levels of reliability, the Federal Highway Administration (FHWA) issued a policy memorandum on June 28, 2000, requiring all new bridges initiated after October 1, 2007, to be designed according to the LRFD approach. Likewise, regionally calibrated LRFD resistance factors were permitted by the American Association of State Highway and Transportation Officials (AASHTO) to improve the economy of bridge foundation elements. Thus, projects TR-573, TR-583 and TR-584 were undertaken by a research team at Iowa State University’s Bridge Engineering Center with the goal of developing resistance factors for pile design using available pile static load test data. To accomplish this goal, the available data were first analyzed for reliability and then placed in a newly designed relational database management system termed PIle LOad Tests (PILOT), to which this first volume of the final report for project TR-573 is dedicated. PILOT is an amalgamated, electronic source of information consisting of both static and dynamic data for pile load tests conducted in the State of Iowa. The database, which includes historical data on pile load tests dating back to 1966, is intended for use in the establishment of LRFD resistance factors for design and construction control of driven pile foundations in Iowa. Although a considerable amount of geotechnical and pile load test data is available in literature as well as in various State Department of Transportation files, PILOT is one of the first regional databases to be exclusively used in the development of LRFD resistance factors for the design and construction control of driven pile foundations. Currently providing an electronically organized assimilation of geotechnical and pile load test data for 274 piles of various types (e.g., steel H-shaped, timber, pipe, Monotube, and concrete), PILOT (http://srg.cce.iastate.edu/lrfd/) is on par with such familiar national databases used in the calibration of LRFD resistance factors for pile foundations as the FHWA’s Deep Foundation Load Test Database. By narrowing geographical boundaries while maintaining a high number of pile load tests, PILOT exemplifies a model for effective regional LRFD calibration procedures.

Iowa In Motion: State Transportation Plan, 1997

What is Iowa in Motion? The Iowa Department of Transportation is continuing the journey to develop Iowa’s future transportation system. This ongoing planning process, known as Iowa in Motion, was developed in response to the Intermodal Surface Transportation Efficiency Act (ISTEA) and Iowa’s changing transportation needs. The completion of Parts I, II and III of Iowa in Motion has led to development of this State Transportation Plan. Part IV includes activities, both current and future, to support the plan. This State Transportation Plan represents the thoughts and concerns of thousands of Iowans. Individuals, metropolitan planning organizations (MPOs), regional planning affiliations (RPAs), associations and organizations have become involved and have made recommendations concerning which direction should be followed regarding transportation investments. This plan represents their extensive input into the Iowa in Motion process and consensus building as we moved towards adoption of this State Transportation Plan. The adopted plan serves as a guide for development of transportation policies, goals, objectives, initiatives and investment decisions through the year 2020.

The Adoption of Technologies, Policies, and Systems for Improving Fleet Fuel Performance, 2007

The dramatic rise in fuel prices and growing environmental concerns are pressing freight transportation companies to pursue new systems and methods to improve fuel efficiency and reduce their environmental impact. While select major carriers appear to be leading efforts to adopt technologies that support a dramatic improvement in fuel performance, there appears to be little understanding as to the breadth and depth of efforts being taken by the broader motor carrier community, consisting of over 20,000 companies of all sizes. The purpose of this study was to investigate the level of adoption of technologies and policies to support improved fuel efficiency among motor carrier fleets.

Termination of pregnancy among teenagers - why more surgical terminations?

Introduction: In 2012, a study by K. Chatziioannidou and S-C. Renteria showed that teenagers chose to undergo a surgical termination of pregnancy (TOP) more often than a medical TOP (mifepristone followed by misoprostol) when they decided to terminate a pregnancy. It also showed that the teenagers' choice for a medical versus surgical method is inversely proportional to the adults' choice although the efficiency of the medical method showed even better results for teenagers than for adults. According to the hypothesis made, the reasons for this choice might be influenced by the following facts: (i) the belated call to make an appointment, the medical procedure not being available after 9 weeks of gestation; (ii) the imperative request for confidentiality; (iii) the beliefs and subjective appreciation of the medical staff. Objectives: The aim of this retrospective and qualitative study is to analyse the reasons why, in case of a TOP, teenagers chose the surgical method more often than their adult counterparts. Material: (i) All teenagers who were admitted for an abortive procedure during 2011 in the in- or outpatient ward. (ii) The professional team (midwives and sexual and reproductive counsellors) in charge in the case of a TOP request. Methods: The information about the patient's history and the biopsycho- social data was retrieved from the patient files filled out by midwives and sexual and reproductive health counsellors during the first appointment for a TOP request or during its process. The professionals' appreciation was evaluated by means of a semi-structured questionnaire. Results: Concerning the choice of the method for a pregnancy termination, the results of our research show that: (i) Out of 47 teenagers, 27 chose the surgical method and 17 the medical method. (ii) Three had a second trimester abortion (which includes use of the medical method). (iii) Fifteen teenagers out of the 27 who chose a surgical method consulted between the 9th and 14th weeks of amenorrhoea and therefore did not have any other choice. The reasons for their 'late arrival' will be explained in detail. The 12 teenagers who arrived before the 8th week of amenorrhoea and chose to undertake abortion by suction & curettage under general anaesthesia did it for the following reasons: (i) Four were afraid of bleeding and pain. (ii) Five thought that the organisation of the surgical procedure was easier. (iii) Two did not trust the abortion pill. (iv) One was taken to her mother's gynaecologist where she had a D&C. Confidentiality was requested nine times out of 27 when choosing the surgical method, and six times out of 17 when choosing the medical method. Therefore, although confidentiality concerns a third of the teenagers' pregnancy termination requests, it does not seem to be a significant element for the choice of the method. As for the subjective appreciation of the professionals, the first results of the discussions seem to show that teenagers were reluctant or resistant towards the medical method. Conclusion: This study shows that the reasons why teenagers still prefer the use of the surgical over the medical method compared to adults, seem to include the late request for an appointment, fear of pain and bleeding and organisational issues. Confidentiality does not seem to greatly influence the teenagers' choice. Nonetheless, medical professionals seem to favour the suction curettage procedure performed under anesthesia because they associate young age with vulnerability and psychological frailty and consequently diminished ability to cope with pain and emotional distress during the medical procedures.

Beyond EA Frameworks: Towards an Understanding of the Adoption of Enterprise Architecture Management

Enterprise architectures (EA) are considered promising approaches to reduce the complexities of growing information technology (IT) environments while keeping pace with an ever-changing business environment. However, the implementation of enterprise architecture management (EAM) has proven difficult in practice. Many EAM initiatives face severe challenges, as demonstrated by the low usage level of enterprise architecture documentation and enterprise architects' lack of authority regarding enforcing EAM standards and principles. These challenges motivate our research. Based on three field studies, we first analyze EAM implementation issues that arise when EAM is started as a dedicated and isolated initiative. Following a design-oriented paradigm, we then suggest a design theory for architecture-driven IT management (ADRIMA) that may guide organizations to successfully implement EAM. This theory summarizes prescriptive knowledge related to embedding EAM practices, artefacts and roles in the existing IT management processes and organization.

Adoption av träkomposit teknologi på svenska trähusmarknaden

Syftet med uppsatsen är att kategorisera träkomposit teknologi adoption på svenska trähusmarknaden genom fallstudie av trähustillverkare och fasadbehandlare. Som undersöknings metod har intervjueroch facklitteratur använts. Med hjälp av litteraturmaterialet sammanställdes enteoretisk referensram, vad efter sedan fallföretagen intervjuades. Genom insamlade sekundärdata betraktades företaget i den teoretiska referensramen. Undersökningens teorin baserar sig på adoption av innovation. Inledningsvis redogörs traditionell segmentering av industriella marknader och sedan segmentering efter kundlivscykel. Tyngdpunkten är ändå på teknologi adoption livscykel. Empirin är fallstudie av modul, storblock trähustillverkare och fasadbehandlare. Företagets situation studeras inom teoretiska referensramen för att kunna göra en analys avadoptionen och göra slutsatser om produktlanseringen. Rekommendation är några aspekter som innobuild bör beakta vid försäljning av Fasec-fasadsystem. Undersökningen torde kunna användas som stöd vid adoption av en innovation.

Information System ProcessInnovation Adoption, Adaptation, Learning, and Unlearning: A Longitudinal Case Study

This thesis examines the history and evolution of information system process innovation (ISPI) processes (adoption, adaptation, and unlearning) within the information system development (ISD) work in an internal information system (IS) department and in two IS software house organisations in Finland over a 43-year time-period. The study offers insights into influential actors and their dependencies in deciding over ISPIs. The research usesa qualitative research approach, and the research methodology involves the description of the ISPI processes, how the actors searched for ISPIs, and how the relationships between the actors changed over time. The existing theories were evaluated using the conceptual models of the ISPI processes based on the innovationliterature in the IS area. The main focus of the study was to observe changes in the main ISPI processes over time. The main contribution of the thesis is a new theory. The term theory should be understood as 1) a new conceptual framework of the ISPI processes, 2) new ISPI concepts and categories, and the relationships between the ISPI concepts inside the ISPI processes. The study gives a comprehensive and systematic study on the history and evolution of the ISPI processes; reveals the factors that affected ISPI adoption; studies ISPI knowledge acquisition, information transfer, and adaptation mechanisms; and reveals the mechanismsaffecting ISPI unlearning; changes in the ISPI processes; and diverse actors involved in the processes. The results show that both the internal IS department and the two IS software houses sought opportunities to improve their technical skills and career paths and this created an innovative culture. When new technology generations come to the market the platform systems need to be renewed, and therefore the organisations invest in ISPIs in cycles. The extent of internal learning and experiments was higher than the external knowledge acquisition. Until the outsourcing event (1984) the decision-making was centralised and the internalIS department was very influential over ISPIs. After outsourcing, decision-making became distributed between the two IS software houses, the IS client, and itsinternal IT department. The IS client wanted to assure that information systemswould serve the business of the company and thus wanted to co-operate closely with the software organisations.

Semantic Web applications: a framework for industry and business exploitation – What is needed for the adoption of the Semantic Web from the market and industry

In recent years, Semantic Web (SW) research has resulted in significant outcomes. Various industries have adopted SW technologies, while the ‘deep web’ is still pursuing the critical transformation point, in which the majority of data found on the deep web will be exploited through SW value layers. In this article we analyse the SW applications from a ‘market’ perspective. We are setting the key requirements for real-world information systems that are SW-enabled and we discuss the major difficulties for the SW uptake that has been delayed. This article contributes to the literature of SW and knowledge management providing a context for discourse towards best practices on SW-based information systems.