Skilloscopy: Bayesian modeling of decision makers' skill

This paper proposes and demonstrates an approach, Skilloscopy, to the assessment of decision makers. In an increasingly sophisticated, connected and information-rich world, decision making is becoming both more important and more difficult. At the same time, modelling decision-making on computers is becoming more feasible and of interest, partly because the information-input to those decisions is increasingly on record. The aims of Skilloscopy are to rate and rank decision makers in a domain relative to each other: the aims do not include an analysis of why a decision is wrong or suboptimal, nor the modelling of the underlying cognitive process of making the decisions. In the proposed method a decision-maker is characterised by a probability distribution of their competence in choosing among quantifiable alternatives. This probability distribution is derived by classic Bayesian inference from a combination of prior belief and the evidence of the decisions. Thus, decision-makers’ skills may be better compared, rated and ranked. The proposed method is applied and evaluated in the gamedomain of Chess. A large set of games by players across a broad range of the World Chess Federation (FIDE) Elo ratings has been used to infer the distribution of players’ rating directly from the moves they play rather than from game outcomes. Demonstration applications address questions frequently asked by the Chess community regarding the stability of the Elo rating scale, the comparison of players of different eras and/or leagues, and controversial incidents possibly involving fraud. The method of Skilloscopy may be applied in any decision domain where the value of the decision-options can be quantified.

Chess endgame news

This note defines what it means by the 'chess endgame' and looks at the frequency of sub-n-man and 'FinalGen' positions in games and studies and in the FIDE 2013 World Cup. It includes the exposition of the DTM-minimaxing line from one of the three DTM-deepest known (KQPKRBN) positions. It refines the definitions of 'longest game' and 'bionic game'. The games of the FIDE 2013 World Cup and the longest known decisive game are available here.

Chess Endgame News

This paper notes FIDE's 75-move rule (9.6b) and suggests some implications. It reviews two endgame-table initiatives associated with the 50-move rule. One is Huntington's mainly sub-6-man multi-valued DTM50 EGTs implemented in HASKELL. The other is Ronald de Man's WDL' and DTZ50' EGTs which introduce a 5-way evaluation of positions, and ascribe a depth to decisive positions which are not 50-move-rule wins or losses. There is also some first detail about the Lomonosov '7-man DTM EGT' team, and comments on reactions to 'Haworth's Law'.

Chess Endgame News

The DTZ metric indicates the minimaxed 'Depth To Zeroing of the ply-count' for decisive positions. Ronald de Man's DTZ50' metric is a variant of the DTZ metric as moderated by the FIDE 50-move draw-claim rule. DTZ50'-depths are given to '50-move-rule draws' as well as to unconditionally decisive positions. This note defines a two-dimensional taxonomy of positions implicitly defined by DTZ50'. 'Decisive' positions may have values of (wins/losses) v =1/-1 or v = 2/-2. A position's depth in the new DTZ50' metric may be greater than, equal to or less than its DTZ depth. The six parts of the taxonomy are examined in detail, and illustrated by some 40 positions and 16 lines. Positions, lines and the annotation of these lines are supplied in the ancillary data files.

Depth to mate and the 50-move rule

The most popular endgame tables (EGTs) documenting ‘DTM’ Depth to Mate in chess endgames are those of Eugene Nalimov but these do not recognise the FIDE 50-move rule ‘50mr’. This paper marks the creation by the first author of EGTs for sub-6-man (s6m) chess and beyond which give DTM as affected by the ply count pc. The results are put into the context of previous work recognising the 50mr and are compared with the original unmoderated DTM results. The work is also notable for being the first EGT generation work to use the functional programming language HASKELL.

A comparative review of skill assessment: performance, prediction and profiling

The assessment of chess players is an increasingly attractive opportunity and an unfortunate necessity. The chess community needs to limit potential reputational damage by inhibiting cheating and unjustified accusations of cheating: there has been a recent rise in both. A number of counter-intuitive discoveries have been made by benchmarking the intrinsic merit of players’ moves: these call for further investigation. Is Capablanca actually, objectively the most accurate World Champion? Has ELO rating inflation not taken place? Stimulated by FIDE/ACP, we revisit the fundamentals of the subject to advance a framework suitable for improved standards of computational experiment and more precise results. Other domains look to chess as the demonstrator of good practice, including the rating of professionals making high-value decisions under pressure, personnel evaluation by Multichoice Assessment and the organization of crowd-sourcing in citizen science projects. The ‘3P’ themes of performance, prediction and profiling pervade all these domains.

Tumor necrosis factor alpha triggers proliferation of adult neural stem cells via IKK/NF-kappaB signaling

BACKGROUND: Brain inflammation has been recognized as a complex phenomenon with numerous related aspects. In addition to the very well-described neurodegenerative effect of inflammation, several studies suggest that inflammatory signals exert a potentially positive influence on neural stem cell proliferation, migration and differentiation. Tumor necrosis factor alpha (TNF-alpha) is one of the best-characterized mediators of inflammation. To date, conclusions about the action of TNF on neural stem or progenitor cells (NSCs, NPCs) have been conflicting. TNF seems to activate NSC proliferation and to inhibit their differentiation into NPCs. The purpose of the present study was to analyze the molecular signal transduction mechanisms induced by TNF and resulting in NSC proliferation. RESULTS: Here we describe for the first time the TNF-mediated signal transduction cascade in neural stem cells (NSCs) that results in increased proliferation. Moreover, we demonstrate IKK-alpha/beta-dependent proliferation and markedly up-regulated cyclin D1 expression after TNF treatment. The significant increase in proliferation in TNF-treated cells was indicated by increased neurosphere volume, increased bromodeoxyuridin (BrdU) incorporation and a higher total cell number. Furthermore, TNF strongly activated nuclear factor-kappa B (NF-kappaB) as measured by reporter gene assays and by an activity-specific antibody. Proliferation of control and TNF-treated NSCs was strongly inhibited by expression of the NF-kappaB super-repressor IkappaB-AA1. Pharmacological blockade of IkappaB ubiquitin ligase activity led to comparable decreases in NF-kappaB activity and proliferation. In addition, IKK-beta gene product knock-down via siRNA led to diminished NF-kappaB activity, attenuated cyclin D1 expression and finally decreased proliferation. In contrast, TGFbeta-activated kinase 1 (TAK-1) is partially dispensable for TNF-mediated and endogenous proliferation. Understanding stem cell proliferation is crucial for future regenerative and anti-tumor medicine. CONCLUSION: TNF-mediated activation of IKK-beta resulted in activation of NF-kappaB and was followed by up-regulation of the bona-fide target gene cyclin D1. Activation of the canonical NF-kappaB pathway resulted in strongly increased proliferation of NSCs.

Alternative diagnostic diagrams and the `forgotten` population of weak line galaxies in the SDSS

A numerous population of weak line galaxies (WLGs) is often left out of statistical studies on emission-line galaxies (ELGs) due to the absence of an adequate classification scheme, since classical diagnostic diagrams, such as [O iii]/H beta versus [N ii]/H alpha (the BPT diagram), require the measurement of at least four emission lines. This paper aims to remedy this situation by transposing the usual divisory lines between star-forming (SF) galaxies and active galactic nuclei (AGN) hosts and between Seyferts and LINERs to diagrams that are more economical in terms of line quality requirements. By doing this, we rescue from the classification limbo a substantial number of sources and modify the global census of ELGs. More specifically, (1) we use the Sloan Digital Sky Survey Data Release 7 to constitute a suitable sample of 280 000 ELGs, one-third of which are WLGs. (2) Galaxies with strong emission lines are classified using the widely applied criteria of Kewley et al., Kauffmann et al. and Stasinska et al. to distinguish SF galaxies and AGN hosts and Kewley et al. to distinguish Seyferts from LINERs. (3) We transpose these classification schemes to alternative diagrams keeping [N ii]/H alpha as a horizontal axis, but replacing H beta by a stronger line (H alpha or [O ii]), or substituting the ionization-level sensitive [O iii]/H beta ratio with the equivalent width of H alpha (W(H alpha)). Optimized equations for the transposed divisory lines are provided. (4) We show that nothing significant is lost in the translation, but that the new diagrams allow one to classify up to 50 per cent more ELGs. (5) Introducing WLGs in the census of galaxies in the local Universe increases the proportion of metal-rich SF galaxies and especially LINERs. In the course of this analysis, we were led to make the following points. (i) The Kewley et al. BPT line for galaxy classification is generally ill-used. (ii) Replacing [O iii]/H beta by W(H alpha) in the classification introduces a change in the philosophy of the distinction between LINERs and Seyferts, but not in its results. Because the W(H alpha) versus [N ii]/H alpha diagram can be applied to the largest sample of ELGs without loss of discriminating power between Seyferts and LINERs, we recommend its use in further studies. (iii) The dichotomy between Seyferts and LINERs is washed out by WLGs in the BPT plane, but it subsists in other diagnostic diagrams. This suggests that the right wing in the BPT diagram is indeed populated by at least two classes, tentatively identified with bona fide AGN and `retired` galaxies that have stopped forming stars and are ionized by their old stellar populations.

Fibroblast growth factor 2 restrains ras-driven proliferation of malignant cells by triggering RhoA-mediated senescence

Fibroblast growth factor 2 (FGF2) is considered to be a bona fide oncogenic factor, although results from our group and others call this into question. Here, we report that exogenous recombinant FGF2 irreversibly inhibits proliferation by inducing senescence in Ras-dependent malignant mouse cells, but not in immortalized nontumorigenic cell lines. We report the following findings in K-Ras-dependent malignant YI adrenocortical cells and H-Ras V12-transformed BALB-3T3 fibroblasts: (a) FGF2 inhibits clonal growth and tumor onset in nude and immunocompetent BALB/c mice, (b) FGF2 irreversibly blocks the cell cycle, and (c) FGF2 induces the senescence-associated -galactosidase with no accompanying signs of apoptosis or necrosis. The tyrosine kinase inhibitor PD173074 completely protected malignant cells from FGF2. In Yl adrenal cells, reducing the constitutively high levels of K-Ras-GTP using the dominant-negative RasN17 mutant made cells resistant to FGF2 cytotoxicity. In addition, transfection of the dominant-negative RhoA-N19 into either YI or 3T3-B61 malignant cell lines yielded stable clonal transfectants that were unable to activate RhoA and were resistant to the FGF2 stress response. We conclude that in Rasdependent malignant cells, FGF2 interacts with its cognate receptors to trigger a senescence-like process involving RboAGTP. Surprisingly, attempts to select FGF2-resistant cells from the Yl and 3T3-B61 cell lines yielded only rare clones that (a) had lost the overexpressed ras oncogene, (b) were dependent on FGF2 for proliferation, and (c) were poorly tumorigenic. Thus, FGF2 exerted a strong negative selection that Rasdependent malignant cells could rarely overcome.

Condução de experimentos de injeção de falhas em banco de dados distribuídos

O presente trabalho realiza uma validação experimental, através da técnica de injeção de falhas por software, de sistemas de informações que utilizam gerenciadores de banco de dados distribuídos comerciais. Estes experimentos visam a obtenção de medidas da dependabilidade do SGBD utilizado, levantamento do custo de seus mecanismos de tolerância a falhas e a real aplicabilidade de SGBDs comerciais em sistemas de missão crítica. Procurou-se avaliar e validar as ferramentas de injeção de falhas utilizadas, no caso específico deste trabalho a ComFIRM e o FIDe. Inicialmente são introduzidos e reforçados os conceitos básicos sobre o tema, que serão utilizados no decorrer do trabalho. Em seguida são apresentadas algumas ferramentas de injeção de falhas em sistemas distribuídos, bem como os modelos de falhas em banco de dados distribuídos. São analisados alguns estudos de aplicação de ferramentas de injeção de falhas em bancos de dados distribuídos. Concluída a revisão bibliográfica é apresentado o modelo de software e hardware que foi implementado, destacando o gerador de cargas de trabalho GerPro-TPC e o gerenciador de injeções e resultados GIR. O GerPro-TPC segue as especificações TPC-c para a simulação de um ambiente transacional comercial padrão e o GIR realiza a integração das ferramentas de injeção de falhas utilizadas, bem como a elaboração do cenário de falhas a injetar e a coleta dos resultados das falhas injetadas. Finalmente são descritos os experimentos realizados sobre o SGBD PROGRESS. São realizados 361 testes de injeções de falhas com aproximadamente 43.000 falhas injetadas em experimentos distintos. Utiliza-se dois modelos de falhas: um focado em falhas de comunicação e outro em falhas de hardware. Os erros resultantes das falhas injetadas foram classificados em erros ignorados/mascarados, erros leves, erros graves e erros catastróficos. Dos modelos de falhas utilizados as que mais comprometeram a dependabilidade do SGBD foram as falhas de hardware. As falhas de comunicação somente comprometeram a disponibilidade do sistema alvo.

Validação do mecanismo de tolerância a falhas do SGBD InterBase através de injeção de falhas

O presente trabalho explora a aplicação de técnicas de injeção de falhas, que simulam falhas transientes de hardware, para validar o mecanismo de detecção e de recuperação de erros, medir os tempos de indisponibilidade do banco de dados após a ocorrência de uma falha que tenha provocado um FUDVK. Adicionalmente, avalia e valida a ferramenta de injeção de falhas FIDe, utilizada nos experimentos, através de um conjunto significativo de testes de injeção de falhas no ambiente do SGBD. A plataforma experimental consiste de um computador Intel Pentium 550 MHz com 128 MB RAM, do sistema operacional Linux Conectiva kernel versão 2.2.13. O sistema alvo das injeções de falhas é o SGBD centralizado InterBase versão 4.0. As aplicações para a carga de trabalho foram escritas em VFULSWV SQL e executadas dentro de uma sessão chamada LVTO. Para a injeção de falhas foram utilizadas três técnicas distintas: 1) o comando NLOO do sistema operacional; 2) UHVHW geral no equipamento; 3) a ferramenta de injeção de falhas FIDe, desenvolvida no grupo de injeção de falhas do PPGC da UFRGS. Inicialmente são introduzidos e reforçados os conceitos básicos sobre o tema, que serão utilizados no decorrer do trabalho e são necessários para a compreensão deste estudo. Em seguida é apresentada a ferramenta de injeção de falhas Xception e são também analisados alguns experimentos que utilizam ferramentas de injeção de falhas em bancos de dados. Concluída a revisão bibliográfica é apresentada a ferramenta de injeção de falhas – o FIDe, o modelo de falhas adotado, a forma de abordagem, a plataforma de hardware e software, a metodologia e as técnicas utilizadas, a forma de condução dos experimentos realizados e os resultados obtidos com cada uma das técnicas. No total foram realizados 3625 testes de injeções de falhas. Com a primeira técnica foram realizadas 350 execuções, com a segunda técnica foram realizadas 75 execuções e com a terceira técnica 3200 execuções, em 80 testes diferentes. O modelo de falhas proposto para este trabalho refere-se a falhas de crash baseadas em corrupção de memória e registradores, parada de CPU, aborto de transações ou reset geral. Os experimentos foram divididos em três técnicas distintas, visando a maior cobertura possível de erros, e apresentam resultados bastante diferenciados. Os experimentos com o comando NLOO praticamente não afetaram o ambiente do banco de dados. Pequeno número de injeção de falhas com o FIDe afetaram significativamente a dependabilidade do SGBD e os experimentos com a técnica de UHVHW geral foram os que mais comprometeram a dependabilidade do SGBD.

Effects of a mixed vector-scalar screened coulomb potential for spinless particles

The problem of a spinless particle subject to a general mixing of vector and scalar screened Coulomb potentials in a two-dimensional world is analyzed and its bounded solutions are found. Some unusual results, including the existence of a bona fide solitary zero-eigenmode solution, are revealed for the Klein-Gordon equation. The cases of pure vector and scalar potentials, already analyzed in previous works, are obtained as particular cases.

Orthogonality criterion for banishing hydrino states from standard quantum mechanics

Orthogonality criterion is used to show in a very simple and general way that anomalous bound-state solutions for the Coulomb potential (hydrino states) do not exist as bona fide solutions of the Schrodinger, Klein-Gordon and Dirac equations. (C) 2007 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Lítio e rotação nas estrelas análogas solares: análise teórica das observações

The projected rotational velocity together with lithium abundance and the onset of the dilution by the deepening in mass of the convective envelope provide a key tool to investigate the so far poorly understood processes at work in stellar interiors of solar-analog stars. To investigate the link between abundances, convection and rotational velocities in solar-analog G dwarf stars, we study a bona fide sample of 118 selected solar-analog G dwarf stars presenting measured lithium abundances, rotational velocities, and fundamental parameters together with computed evolutionary tracks (Toulouse-Geneva code) for a range of stellar masses around 1 M and metallicity consistent with the solar-analog range. The aim of this work is to build up an evolution of lithium and rotation as a function of stellar age, mass, effective temperature, and convection. We analyze the evolutionary status of the sample of 118 solar-analog G dwarf in the HR diagram based on Hipparcos data and using a grid of stellar models in the effective temperature and mass range of the solar-analog stars. We discuss the deepening (in mass) of the convective envelope and the influence on the Li abundances and projected rotational velocities. We determined the stellar mass and the mass of the convective envelope for a bona fide sample of 118 selected solar-analog G dwarf and checked the evolutionary link between the rotational velocity, lithium abundance, and the deepening of the convective envelope. Fast rotators (vsini 6 km s��1) are also stars with high Li content. Slow rotators present a wide range of values of log n(Li). Our results shed new light on the lithium and rotational behavior in G dwarf stars. We confirmed the presence of a large Li abundance spread among the solar-analog stars and concluded that the solar twins probably share a similar mixing history with the Sun

A tandemly repetitive centromeric DNA sequence of the fish Hoplias malabaricus (Characiformes : Erythrinidae) is derived from 5S rDNA

A substantial fraction of the eukaryotic genome consists of repetitive DNA sequences that include satellites, minisatellites, microsatellites, and transposable elements. Although extensively studied for the past three decades, the molecular forces that generate, propagate and maintain repetitive DNAs in the genomes are still discussed. To further understand the dynamics and the mechanisms of evolution of repetitive DNAs in vertebrate genome, we searched for repetitive sequences in the genome of the fish species Hoplias malabaricus. A satellite sequence, named 5SHindIII-DNA, which has a conspicuous similarity with 5S rRNA genes and spacers was identified. FISH experiments showed that the 5S rRNA bona fide gene repeats were clustered in the interstitial position of two chromosome pairs of H. malabaricus, while the satellite 5SHindIII-DNA sequences were clustered in the centromeric position in nine chromosome pairs of the species. The presence of the 5SHindIII-DNA sequences in the centromeres of several chromosomes indicates that this satellite family probably escaped from the selective pressure that maintains the structure and organization of the 5S rDNA repeats and become disperse into the genome. Although it is not feasible to explain how this sequence has been maintained in the centromeric regions, it is possible to hypothesize that it may be involved in some structural or functional role of the centromere organization.