Realised and Optimal Monetary Policy Rules in an Estimated Markov-Switching DSGE Model of the United Kingdom

This paper investigates underlying changes in the UK economy over the past thirtyfive years using a small open economy DSGE model. Using Bayesian analysis, we find UK monetary policy, nominal price rigidity and exogenous shocks, are all subject to regime shifting. A model incorporating these changes is used to estimate the realised monetary policy and derive the optimal monetary policy for the UK. This allows us to assess the effectiveness of the realised policy in terms of stabilising economic fluctuations, and, in turn, provide an indication of whether there is room for monetary authorities to further improve their policies.

Asset Prices, Business Cycles, and Markov-Perfect Fiscal Policy when Agents are Risk-Sensitive

We study a business cycle model in which a benevolent fiscal authority must determine the optimal provision of government services, while lacking credibility, lump-sum taxes, and the ability to bond finance deficits. Households and the fiscal authority have risk sensitive preferences. We find that outcomes are affected importantly by the household's risk sensitivity, but not by the fiscal authority's. Further, while household risk-sensitivity induces a strong precautionary saving motive, which raises capital and lowers the return on assets, its effects on fluctuations and the business cycle are generally small, although more pronounced for negative shocks. Holding the stochastic steady state constant, increases in household risk-sensitivity lower the risk-free rate and raise the return on equity, increasing the equity premium. Finally, although risk-sensitivity has little effect on the provision of government services, it does cause the fiscal authority to lower the income tax rate. An additional contribution of this paper is to present a method for computing Markov-perfect equilibria in models where private agents and the government are risk-sensitive decisionmakers.

Computing Markov-Perfect Optimal Policies in Business-Cycle Models

Time-inconsistency is an essential feature of many policy problems (Kydland and Prescott, 1977). This paper presents and compares three methods for computing Markov-perfect optimal policies in stochastic nonlinear business cycle models. The methods considered include value function iteration, generalized Euler-equations, and parameterized shadow prices. In the context of a business cycle model in which a scal authority chooses government spending and income taxation optimally, while lacking the ability to commit, we show that the solutions obtained using value function iteration and generalized Euler equations are somewhat more accurate than that obtained using parameterized shadow prices. Among these three methods, we show that value function iteration can be applied easily, even to environments that include a risk-sensitive scal authority and/or inequality constraints on government spending. We show that the risk-sensitive scal authority lowers government spending and income-taxation, reducing the disincentive households face to accumulate wealth.

Repeated Interaction and the Revelation of the Monitor's Type: A Principal-Monitor-Agent Problem

This paper studies a dynamic principal-monitor-agent relation where a strategic principal delegates the task of monitoring the effort of a strategic agent to a third party. The latter we call the monitor, whose type is initially unknown. Through repeated interaction the agent might learn his type. We show that this process damages the principal's payoffs. Compensation is assumed exogenous, limiting to a great extent the provision of incentives. We go around this difficulty by introducing costly replacement strategies, i.e. the principal replaces the monitor, thus disrupting the agent's learning. We found that even when replacement costs are null, if the revealed monitor is strictly preferred by both parties, there is a loss in efficiency due to the impossibility of bene…tting from it. Nonetheless, these strategies can partially recover the principal's losses. Additionally, we establish upper and lower bounds on the payoffs that the principal and the agent can achieve. Finally we characterize the equilibrium strategies under public and private monitoring (with communication) for different cost and impatience levels.

Eisenstein series for principal congruence subgroups of GL(2,Fq[T])

"Vegeu el resum a l'inici del document del fitxer adjunt"

Comparative Analysis by Polymerase Chain Reaction Amplified Minicircles of Kinetoplast DNA of a Stable Strain of Trypanosoma cruzi from São Felipe, Bahia, its Clones and Subclones: Possibility of Predominance of a Principal Clone in this Area

Molecular characterization of one stable strain of Trypanosoma cruzi, the 21 SF, representative of the pattern of strains isolated from the endemic area of São Felipe, State of Bahia, Brazil, maintained for 15 years in laboratory by serial passages in mice and classified as biodeme Type II and zymodeme 2 has been investigated. The kinetoplast DNA (kDNA) of parental strain, 5 clones and 14 subclones were analyzed. Schizodeme was established by comparative study of the fragments obtained from digestion of the 330-bp fragments amplified by polymerase chain reaction (PCR) from the variable regions of the minicicles, and digested by restriction endonucleases Rsa I and Hinf I. Our results show a high percentual of similarity between the restriction fragment lenght polymorphism (RFLP) for the parental strain and its clones and among these individual clones and their subclones at a level of 80 to 100%.This homology indicates a predominance of the same "principal clone" in the 21SF strain and confirms the homogeneity previously observed at biological and isozymic analysis. These results suggest the possibility that the T. cruzi strains with similar biological and isoenzymic patterns, circulating in this endemic area, are representative of one dominant clone. The presence of "principal clones" could be responsible for a predominant tropism of the parasites for specific organs and tissues and this could contribute to the pattern of clinico-pathological manifestations of Chagas's disease in one geographical area.

Análisis de la expresión de las moléculas relacionadas con el complejo principal de histocompatibilidad de clase I y de NKG2D como respuesta al daño oxidativo del DNA en el cáncer urotelial de vejiga. Relación con las características clínico patológicas y supervivencia

Es tracta d'un estudi retrospectiu de casos de 280 pacients diagnosticats de tumor vesical primari amb un seguiment mínim de 8 anys. S'ha construït un Tissue microarray i mitjançant mètodes semiquantitatius d’inmunohistoquímica es determinarà l'expressió de les molècules MICA (MHC class I chain-related gene A) i del seu receptor NKG2D (Natural-Killer group 2-member D) a nivell tissular, relacionant-lo amb variables anatomopatològiques segons els grups de risc, hàbit tabàquic i sexe. Finalment valorarem l'expressió de MICA/NKG2D com a factor independent de recidiva / progressió tumoral. En la literatura només existeixen 2 treballs que relacionin MICA amb el càncer vesical.

Phenotypic features of carbohydrate sulfotransferase 3 (CHST3) deficiency in 24 patients: congenital dislocations and vertebral changes as principal diagnostic features.

We recently reported on the deficiency of carbohydrate sulfotransferase 3 (CHST3; chondroitin-6-sulfotransferase) in six subjects diagnosed with recessive Larsen syndrome or humero-spinal dysostosis [Hermanns et al. (2008); Am J Hum Genet 82:1368-1374]. Since then, we have identified 17 additional families with CHST3 mutations and we report here on a series of 24 patients in 23 families. The diagnostic hypothesis prior to molecular analysis had been: Larsen syndrome (15 families), humero-spinal dysostosis (four cases), chondrodysplasia with multiple dislocations (CDMD "Megarbane type"; two cases), Desbuquois syndrome (one case), and spondylo-epiphyseal dysplasia (one case). In spite of the different diagnostic labels, the clinical features in these patients were similar and included dislocation of the knees and/or hips at birth, clubfoot, elbow joint dysplasia with subluxation and limited extension, short stature, and progressive kyphosis developing in late childhood. The most useful radiographic clues were the changes of the lumbar vertebrae. Twenty-four different CHST3 mutations were identified; 16 patients had homozygous mutations. We conclude that CHST3 deficiency presents at birth with congenital dislocations of knees, hips, and elbows, and is often diagnosed initially as Larsen syndrome, humero-spinal dysostosis, or chondrodysplasia with dislocations. The incidence of CHST3 deficiency seems to be higher than assumed so far. The clinical and radiographic pattern (joint dislocations, vertebral changes, normal carpal age, lack of facial flattening, and recessive inheritance) is characteristic and distinguishes CHST3 deficiency from other disorders with congenital dislocations such as filamin B-associated dominant Larsen syndrome and Desbuquois syndrome.

Allocating Resources to HSS Boards: Proposed Changes to the Weighted Capitation Formula - Final Consultation Summary (PDF 167 KB)

Allocating Resources to HSS Boards: Proposed Changes to the Weighted Capitation Formula - Final Consultation Summary