Statistical-dynamical downscaling for wind energy potentials: evaluation and applications to decadal hindcasts and climate change projections

A statistical–dynamical downscaling (SDD) approach for the regionalization of wind energy output (Eout) over Europe with special focus on Germany is proposed. SDD uses an extended circulation weather type (CWT) analysis on global daily mean sea level pressure fields with the central point being located over Germany. Seventy-seven weather classes based on the associated CWT and the intensity of the geostrophic flow are identified. Representatives of these classes are dynamically downscaled with the regional climate model COSMO-CLM. By using weather class frequencies of different data sets, the simulated representatives are recombined to probability density functions (PDFs) of near-surface wind speed and finally to Eout of a sample wind turbine for present and future climate. This is performed for reanalysis, decadal hindcasts and long-term future projections. For evaluation purposes, results of SDD are compared to wind observations and to simulated Eout of purely dynamical downscaling (DD) methods. For the present climate, SDD is able to simulate realistic PDFs of 10-m wind speed for most stations in Germany. The resulting spatial Eout patterns are similar to DD-simulated Eout. In terms of decadal hindcasts, results of SDD are similar to DD-simulated Eout over Germany, Poland, Czech Republic, and Benelux, for which high correlations between annual Eout time series of SDD and DD are detected for selected hindcasts. Lower correlation is found for other European countries. It is demonstrated that SDD can be used to downscale the full ensemble of the Earth System Model of the Max Planck Institute (MPI-ESM) decadal prediction system. Long-term climate change projections in Special Report on Emission Scenarios of ECHAM5/MPI-OM as obtained by SDD agree well to the results of other studies using DD methods, with increasing Eout over northern Europe and a negative trend over southern Europe. Despite some biases, it is concluded that SDD is an adequate tool to assess regional wind energy changes in large model ensembles.

The AeroCom evaluation and intercomparison of organic aerosol in global models

This paper evaluates the current status of global modeling of the organic aerosol (OA) in the troposphere and analyzes the differences between models as well as between models and observations. Thirty-one global chemistry transport models (CTMs) and general circulation models (GCMs) have participated in this intercomparison, in the framework of AeroCom phase II. The simulation of OA varies greatly between models in terms of the magnitude of primary emissions, secondary OA (SOA) formation, the number of OA species used (2 to 62), the complexity of OA parameterizations (gas-particle partitioning, chemical aging, multiphase chemistry, aerosol microphysics), and the OA physical, chemical and optical properties. The diversity of the global OA simulation results has increased since earlier AeroCom experiments, mainly due to the increasing complexity of the SOA parameterization in models, and the implementation of new, highly uncertain, OA sources. Diversity of over one order of magnitude exists in the modeled vertical distribution of OA concentrations that deserves a dedicated future study. Furthermore, although the OA / OC ratio depends on OA sources and atmospheric processing, and is important for model evaluation against OA and OC observations, it is resolved only by a few global models. The median global primary OA (POA) source strength is 56 Tg a−1 (range 34–144 Tg a−1) and the median SOA source strength (natural and anthropogenic) is 19 Tg a−1 (range 13–121 Tg a−1). Among the models that take into account the semi-volatile SOA nature, the median source is calculated to be 51 Tg a−1 (range 16–121 Tg a−1), much larger than the median value of the models that calculate SOA in a more simplistic way (19 Tg a−1; range 13–20 Tg a−1, with one model at 37 Tg a−1). The median atmospheric burden of OA is 1.4 Tg (24 models in the range of 0.6–2.0 Tg and 4 between 2.0 and 3.8 Tg), with a median OA lifetime of 5.4 days (range 3.8–9.6 days). In models that reported both OA and sulfate burdens, the median value of the OA/sulfate burden ratio is calculated to be 0.77; 13 models calculate a ratio lower than 1, and 9 models higher than 1. For 26 models that reported OA deposition fluxes, the median wet removal is 70 Tg a−1 (range 28–209 Tg a−1), which is on average 85% of the total OA deposition. Fine aerosol organic carbon (OC) and OA observations from continuous monitoring networks and individual field campaigns have been used for model evaluation. At urban locations, the model–observation comparison indicates missing knowledge on anthropogenic OA sources, both strength and seasonality. The combined model–measurements analysis suggests the existence of increased OA levels during summer due to biogenic SOA formation over large areas of the USA that can be of the same order of magnitude as the POA, even at urban locations, and contribute to the measured urban seasonal pattern. Global models are able to simulate the high secondary character of OA observed in the atmosphere as a result of SOA formation and POA aging, although the amount of OA present in the atmosphere remains largely underestimated, with a mean normalized bias (MNB) equal to −0.62 (−0.51) based on the comparison against OC (OA) urban data of all models at the surface, −0.15 (+0.51) when compared with remote measurements, and −0.30 for marine locations with OC data. The mean temporal correlations across all stations are low when compared with OC (OA) measurements: 0.47 (0.52) for urban stations, 0.39 (0.37) for remote stations, and 0.25 for marine stations with OC data. The combination of high (negative) MNB and higher correlation at urban stations when compared with the low MNB and lower correlation at remote sites suggests that knowledge about the processes that govern aerosol processing, transport and removal, on top of their sources, is important at the remote stations. There is no clear change in model skill with increasing model complexity with regard to OC or OA mass concentration. However, the complexity is needed in models in order to distinguish between anthropogenic and natural OA as needed for climate mitigation, and to calculate the impact of OA on climate accurately.

Evaluation and revision of inferential comprehension in narrative texts: an eye movement study

We investigated the processes of how adult readers evaluate and revise their situation model during reading by monitoring their eye movements as they read narrative texts and subsequent critical sentences. In each narrative text, a short introduction primed a knowledge-based inference, followed by a target concept that was either expected (e.g., “oven”) or unexpected (e.g., “grill”) in relation to the inferred concept. Eye movements showed that readers detected a mismatch between the new unexpected information and their prior interpretation, confirming their ability to evaluate inferential information. Just below the narrative text, a critical sentence included a target word that was either congruent (e.g., “roasted”) or incongruent (e.g., “barbecued”) with the expected but not the unexpected concept. Readers spent less time reading the congruent than the incongruent target word, reflecting the facilitation of prior information. In addition, when the unexpected (but not expected) concept had been presented, participants with lower verbal (but not visuospatial) working memory span exhibited longer reading times and made more regressions (from the critical sentence to previous information) on encountering congruent information, indicating difficulty in inhibiting their initial incorrect interpretation and revising their situation model

Clinical evaluation and COL2A1 gene analysis in 21 Brazilian families with Stickler syndrome: Identification of novel mutations, further genotype/phenotype correlation, and its implications for the diagnosis

We present clinical and molecular evaluation from a large cohort of patients with Stickler syndrome: 78 individuals from 21 unrelated Brazilian families. The patients were selected in a Hospital with a craniofacial dysmorphology assistance service and clinical diagnosis was based on the presence of cleft palate associated to facial and ocular anomalies of Stickler syndrome. Analysis of COL2A1 gene revealed 9 novel and 4 previously described pathogenic mutations. Except for the mutation c.556G>T (p.Gly186X), all the others were located in the triple helical domain. We did not find genotype/phenotype correlation in relation to type and position of the mutation in the triple helical domain. However, a significantly higher proportion of myopia in patients with mutations located in this domain was observed in relation to those with the mutation in the non-tripe helical domain (c.556G>T; P < 0.04). A trend towards a higher prevalence of glaucoma, although not statistically significant, was observed in the presence of the mutation c.556G>T. It is possible. that this mutation alters the splicing of the mRNA instead of only creating a premature stop codon and therefore it can lead to protein products of different ocular effects. One novel DNA variation (c.1266+7G>C) occurs near a splice site and it was observed to co-segregate with the phenotype in one of the two families with this DNA variation. As in silico analysis predicted that the c.1266+7G>C DNA variation can affect the efficiency of the splicing, we still cannot rule it out as non-pathogenic. Our study also showed that ascertainment through cleft palate associated to other craniofacial signs can be very efficient for identification of Stickler syndrome patients. Still, high frequency of familial cases and high frequency of underdevelopment of distal lateral tibial epiphyses observed in our patients suggested that the inclusion of this information can improve the clinical diagnosis of Stickler syndrome. (C) 2008 Elsevier Masson SAS. All rights reserved.

Brazilian Federal Universities : relative efficiency evaluation and data envelopment analysis

The papers aims at considering the issue of relative efficiency measurement in the context of the public sector. In particular, we consider the efficiency measurement approach provided by Data Envelopment Analysis (DEA). The application considered the main Brazilian federal universities for the year of 1994. Given the large number of inputs and outputs, this paper advances the idea of using factor analysis to explore common dimensions in the data set. Such procedure made possible a meaningful application of DEA, which finally provided a set of efficiency scores for the universities considered .

Are the preference and selection patterns of hermit crabs for gastropod shells species- or site-specific?

Experimental analyses of hermit crabs and their preferences for shells are essential to understand the intrinsic relationship of the crabs' dependence on shells, and may be useful to explain their shell use pattern in nature. The aim of this study was to evaluate the effect of crab species and site on the pattern of shell use, selection, and preference in the south-western Atlantic hermit crabs Pagurus brevidactylus and Pagurus criniticornis, comparing sympatric and allopatric populations. Differently from the traditional approach to evaluate shell preference by simply determining the shell selection pattern (i.e., the number of shells of each type selected), preference was defined (according to [Liszka, D., Underwood, AJ., 1990. An experimental design to determine preferences for gastropod shells by a hermit-crab. J. Exp. Mar. Biol. Ecol., 137(1), 47-62]) by the comparison of the number of crabs changing for a particular shell type when three options were given (Cerithium atratum, Morula nodulosa, and Tegula viridula) with the number of crabs changing for this same type when only this type was offered. The effect of crab species was tested at Cabelo Gordo Beach, where P. brevidacrylus was found occupying shells of C. atratum, M. nodulosa, and T viridula in similar frequencies, whereas P. criniticornis occupied predominantly shells of C atratum. In laboratory experiments the selection patterns of the two hermit-crab species for these three gastropods were different, with P criniticornis selecting mainly shells of C atratum, and R brevidactylus selecting more shells of M. nodulosa. The shell preference was also dependent on crab species, with P. criniticornis showing a clear preference for shells of C atratum, whereas P. brevidactylus did not show a preference for any of the tested shells. The effect of site was tested for the two species comparing data from Cabelo Gordo to Preta (P brevidactylus) and Araca beaches (P. criniticornis). The pattern of shell use, selection, and preference was demonstrated to be dependent on site only for P. brevidactylus. The results also showed that the shell use pattern of P criniticornis can be explained by its preference at both sites, whereas for P. brevidactylus it occurred only at Cabelo Gordo, where the absence of preference was correlated with the similar use of the three gastropod species studied. Finally, the results showed that the shell selection pattern cannot be considered as a measure of shell preference, since it overestimates crab selectivity. (C) 2009 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Characterization and selection of Bacillus thuringiensis isolates effective against Sitophilus oryzae

Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa do Estado de São Paulo (FAPESP)

Minimizing inter-genotypic competition effects to predict genetic values and selection in forestry genetic tests

The effect of competition is an important source of variation in breeding experiments. This study aimed to compare the selection of plants of open-pollinated families of Eucalyptus with and without the use of competition covariables. Genetic values were determined for each family and tree and for the traits height, diameter at breast height and timber volume in a randomized block design, resulting in the variance components, genetic parameters, selection gains, effective size and selection coincidence, with and without the use of covariables. Intergenotypic competition is an important factor of environmental variation. The use of competition covariables generally reduces the estimates of variance components and influences genetic gains in the studied traits. Intergenotypic competition biases the selection of open-pollinated eucalypt progenies, and can result in an erroneous choice of superior genotypes; the inclusion of covariables in the model reduces this influence.

Evaluation and development of passion fruit (Passiflora alata Dryander) propagated by cutting and seet in conditions of commercial orchard

The present work was conducted in a fruit tree propagation area of the Plant Production Department of the Faculdade de Ciencias Agrarias e Veterinarias, Universidade Estadual Paulista (FCAV/UNESP) in Jaboticabal, SP, and also in a commercial orchard in Araguari, MG, with the objective to verify the potential of vegetative growth (stem diameter, height of plants and leaf number) of plants of passion fruit (Passiflora alata Dryander), gotten by cutting and seed, comparing the initial development of plants in the field. This experiment was carried out from January 2002 to February 2003. The experiment using seeds was conducted at a shadow house, and the one that used cuttings in an intermitent mist. The cuttings and seeds were collected from adult plants which came from Passifloraceae Active Germoplasm Bank (BAG) of the Plant Production Department of FCAC/UNESP. For the cuttings, it was used the intermediate part of the branches in stadium of vegetative growth. The seeds, in order to obtain the seedlings, had been sown in plastic trays. Cuttings and seedlings were transplanted to plastic bags with substrate in shadow house and with daily irrigation. They were acclimatized and planted on field, after 60 days. on field, the stem diameter, plant height and number of leaves were better for cuttings than for seedlings in Jaboticabal, SP. In Araguari, MG, stem diameter was larger in the seedlings, which plant heights and number of leaves were larger on cuttings.

Breed and selection line differences in the temperament of beef cattle

O temperamento de quatro raças bovinas foi avaliado utilizando-se o teste de velocidade de fuga (FT) e o escore de comportamento (BST). FT foi definida como o tempo necessário para animais percorrerem uma distância de 2 m após a pesagem. BST foi baseada no comportamento dos animais na balança, amostrando-se quatro categorias de comportamento: movimentos, intensidade de respiração, vocalizações e coices. Os coeficientes de herdabilidade de FT e BST foram estimados com uso de um modelo de máxima verossimilhança restrita, considerando meio irmãos paternos. Caracu apresentou menores médias para BST do que as demais raças. Nelore apresentou resultados intermediários, seguida por Guzerat e Gyr com médias mais elevadas (p < 0,05). Resultados similares foram observados para FT, mas as médias de Caracu e Nelore não diferiram entre si. Observou-se baixa associação entre FT e BST (r p= -0,36; p < 0,01). A correlação entre rank de touros ordenados pelos seus valores preditos (p) para FT e BST foi moderada e negativa (r s = -0,63; p < 0,001). A herdabilidade de FT e BST foi de 0,35 e 0,34, respectivamente. A comparação de rebanhos Nelore com diferentes critérios de seleção para peso corporal mostrou que linhas de seleção podem modular positivamente o temperamento de Bos indicus.

Mutagenic evaluation and chemical investigation of Byrsonima intermedia A. Juss. leaf extracts

Byrsonima intermedia is a native species of the cerrado formation (tropical American savannah). In Brazil, this plant has been used for the treatment of fever, in ulcers, as a diuretic, as antiasthinatics and in skin infections. Members of the genus Byrsonima (Malpighiaceae) are employed not only in the folk medicine but also as food to make juice, jellies and liquor. The aim of this work was to evaluate the mutagenic effects of Byrsonima intermedia, common name 'murici'. Phytochernical analysis of methanol extract furnished (+)catechin, (-)-epicatechin, quercetin-3-O-beta-D-galactopyranoside, methyl gallate, gallic acid, quercetin-3-O-alpha-L-arabinopyranoside, amentoflavone, quercetin, querceti n-3-O-(2-O-galloyl)-beta-galactopyranoside and quei-eetin-3-O-(2-O-galloyl)-alpha-arabinopyranoside. Methanol, hydromethanol and chloroform extracts were evaluated in inutagenic assay with Salmonella typhimurium (Ames test) and mice (Micronucleus test). The methanolic extract presented signs of mutagenic activity for the strains TA98 and TA100 in the Ames assay. Mutagenicity was not observed in vivo. (c) 2007 Elsevier B.V.. All rights reserved.

Pharmacological Evaluation and Preliminary Pharmacokinetics Studies of a New Diclofenac Prodrug without Gastric Ulceration Effect

Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa do Estado de São Paulo (FAPESP)