Analysis of outliers in electricity spot prices with exampleof New England and New Zealand markets

Electricity spot prices have always been a demanding data set for time series analysis, mostly because of the non-storability of electricity. This feature, making electric power unlike the other commodities, causes outstanding price spikes. Moreover, the last several years in financial world seem to show that ’spiky’ behaviour of time series is no longer an exception, but rather a regular phenomenon. The purpose of this paper is to seek patterns and relations within electricity price outliers and verify how they affect the overall statistics of the data. For the study techniques like classical Box-Jenkins approach, series DFT smoothing and GARCH models are used. The results obtained for two geographically different price series show that patterns in outliers’ occurrence are not straightforward. Additionally, there seems to be no rule that would predict the appearance of a spike from volatility, while the reverse effect is quite prominent. It is concluded that spikes cannot be predicted based only on the price series; probably some geographical and meteorological variables need to be included in modeling.

Stable sampling and Fourier multipliers

We study the relationship between stable sampling sequences for bandlimited functions in $L^p(\R^n)$ and the Fourier multipliers in $L^p$. In the case that the sequence is a lattice and the spectrum is a fundamental domain for the lattice the connection is complete. In the case of irregular sequences there is still a partial relationship.

Utilização de filtro de transformada de fourier para a minimização de ruídos em sinais analíticos

Instrumental data always present some noise. The analytical data information and instrumental noise generally has different frequencies. Thus is possible to remove the noise using a digital filter based on Fourier transform and inverse Fourier transform. This procedure enhance the signal/noise ratio and consecutively increase the detection limits on instrumental analysis. The basic principle of Fourier transform filter with modifications implemented to improve its performance is presented. A numerical example, as well as a real voltammetric example are showed to demonstrate the Fourier transform filter implementation. The programs to perform the Fourier transform filter, in Matlab and Visual Basic languages, are included as appendices

Sampling in chemical analysis

The uncertainty of any analytical determination depends on analysis and sampling. Uncertainty arising from sampling is usually not controlled and methods for its evaluation are still little known. Pierre Gy’s sampling theory is currently the most complete theory about samplingwhich also takes the design of the sampling equipment into account. Guides dealing with the practical issues of sampling also exist, published by international organizations such as EURACHEM, IUPAC (International Union of Pure and Applied Chemistry) and ISO (International Organization for Standardization). In this work Gy’s sampling theory was applied to several cases, including the analysis of chromite concentration estimated on SEM (Scanning Electron Microscope) images and estimation of the total uncertainty of a drug dissolution procedure. The results clearly show that Gy’s sampling theory can be utilized in both of the above-mentioned cases and that the uncertainties achieved are reliable. Variographic experiments introduced in Gy’s sampling theory are beneficially applied in analyzing the uncertainty of auto-correlated data sets such as industrial process data and environmental discharges. The periodic behaviour of these kinds of processes can be observed by variographic analysis as well as with fast Fourier transformation and auto-correlation functions. With variographic analysis, the uncertainties are estimated as a function of the sampling interval. This is advantageous when environmental data or process data are analyzed as it can be easily estimated how the sampling interval is affecting the overall uncertainty. If the sampling frequency is too high, unnecessary resources will be used. On the other hand, if a frequency is too low, the uncertainty of the determination may be unacceptably high. Variographic methods can also be utilized to estimate the uncertainty of spectral data produced by modern instruments. Since spectral data are multivariate, methods such as Principal Component Analysis (PCA) are needed when the data are analyzed. Optimization of a sampling plan increases the reliability of the analytical process which might at the end have beneficial effects on the economics of chemical analysis,

Fourier transform infrared-attenuated total reflectance (FTIR-ATR) spectroscopy and chemometric techniques for the determination of adulteration in petrodiesel/biodiesel blends

We propose an analytical method based on fourier transform infrared-attenuated total reflectance (FTIR-ATR) spectroscopy to detect the adulteration of petrodiesel and petrodiesel/palm biodiesel blends with African crude palm oil. The infrared spectral fingerprints from the sample analysis were used to perform principal components analysis (PCA) and to construct a prediction model using partial least squares (PLS) regression. The PCA results separated the samples into three groups, allowing identification of those subjected to adulteration with palm oil. The obtained model shows a good predictive capacity for determining the concentration of palm oil in petrodiesel/biodiesel blends. Advantages of the proposed method include cost-effectiveness and speed; it is also environmentally friendly.

Preliminary data on Brazilian monofloral honey from the northeast region using FT-IR ATR spectroscopic, palynological, and color analysis

Fourier transform infrared attenuated total reflectance (FT-IR ATR) spectroscopy was used to determine 14 different measurands in northeast Brazilian honey samples. Nine different honey samples (six monofloral and three polyfloral) from 2009 obtained from the company CEARAPI underwent FT-IR ATR, palynological, color, and sensorial analysis to obtain preliminary results for these types of honey. The results showed that there are five monofloral, three bifloral, and one extrafloral honey, and also that mid-infrared spectrometry can be used as a screening method for the routine analysis of Brazilian honey, with the advantages of being rapid, nondestructive, and accurate.

Análise exploratória aplicada a espectros de reflexão total atenuada no infravermelho com transformada de Fourier (ATR-FTIR) de blendas de biodiesel/diesel

In this study, hierarchical cluster analysis (HCA) and principal component analysis (PCA) were used to classify blends produced from diesel S500 and different kinds of biodiesel produced by the TDSP methodology. The different kinds of biodiesel studied in this work were produced from three raw materials: soybean oil, waste cooking oil and hydrogenated vegetable oil. Methylic and ethylic routes were employed for the production of biodiesel. HCA and PCA were performed on the data from attenuated total reflectance Fourier transform infrared spectroscopy, showing the separation of the blends into groups according to biodiesel content present in the blends and to the kind of biodiesel used to form the mixtures.

Cuticular and Suberin Polymers of Edible Plants. Analysis by Gas Chromatographic-Mass Spectrometric and Solid State Spectroscopic Methods

Cutin and suberin are structural and protective polymers of plant surfaces. The epidermal cells of the aerial parts of plants are covered with an extracellular cuticular layer, which consists of polyester cutin, highly resistant cutan, cuticular waxes and polysaccharides which link the layer to the epidermal cells. A similar protective layer is formed by a polyaromatic-polyaliphatic biopolymer suberin, which is present particularly in the cell walls of the phellem layer of periderm of the underground parts of plants (e.g. roots and tubers) and the bark of trees. In addition, suberization is also a major factor in wound healing and wound periderm formation regardless of the plants’ tissue. Knowledge of the composition and functions of cuticular and suberin polymers is important for understanding the physiological properties for the plants and for nutritional quality when these plants are consumed as foods. The aims of the practical work were to assess the chemical composition of cuticular polymers of several northern berries and seeds and suberin of two varieties of potatoes. Cutin and suberin were studied as isolated polymers and further after depolymerization as soluble monomers and solid residues. Chemical and enzymatic depolymerization techniques were compared and a new chemical depolymerization method was developed. Gas chromatographic analysis with mass spectrometric detection (GC-MS) was used to assess the monomer compositions. Polymer investigations were conducted with solid state carbon-13 cross polarization magic angle spinning nuclear magnetic resonance spectroscopy (13C CP-MAS NMR), Fourier transform infrared spectroscopy (FTIR) and microscopic analysis. Furthermore, the development of suberin over one year of post-harvest storage was investigated and the cuticular layers from berries grown in the North and South of Finland were compared. The results show that the amounts of isolated cuticular layers and cutin monomers, as well as monomeric compositions vary greatly between the berries. The monomer composition of seeds was found to differ from the corresponding berry peel monomers. The berry cutin monomers were composed mostly of long-chain aliphatic ω-hydroxy acids, with various mid-chain functionalities (double-bonds, epoxy, hydroxy and keto groups). Substituted α,ω-diacids predominated over ω-hydroxy acids in potato suberin monomers and slight differences were found between the varieties. The newly-developed closed tube chemical method was found to be suitable for cutin and suberin analysis and preferred over the solvent-consuming and laborious reflux method. Enzymatic hydrolysis with cutinase was less effective than chemical methanolysis and showed specificity towards α,ω-diacid bonds. According to ₁₃C CP-MAS NMR and FTIR, the depolymerization residues contained significant amounts of aromatic structures, polysaccharides and possible cutan-type aliphatic moieties. Cultivation location seems to have effect on cuticular composition. The materials studied contained significant amounts of different types of biopolymers that could be utilized for several purposes with or without further processing. The importance of the so-called waste material from industrial processes of berries and potatoes as a source of either dietary fiber or specialty chemicals should be further investigated in detail. The evident impact of cuticular and suberin polymers, among other fiber components, on human health should be investigated in clinical trials. These by-product materials may be used as value-added fiber fractions in the food industry and as raw materials for specialty chemicals such as lubricants and emulsifiers, or as building blocks for novel polymers.

A spectral analysis of the myoelectric activity of the left colon in patients with schistosomiasis mansoni

The objective of the present study was to perform a spectral analysis of the electrical activity of the left colon of patients with hepatosplenic schistosomiasis. Thirty patients were studied, divided into 2 groups: group A was composed of 14 patients (9 males and 5 females) with hepatosplenic schistosomiasis and group B was composed of 16 female patients without schistosomiasis mansoni. Three pairs of electrodes were implanted in the left colon at the moment of the surgical treatment. The signals of the electric activity of the colon were captured after postoperative recovery from the ileus and fed into a computer by means of a DATAQ data collection system which identified and captured frequencies between 0.02 and 10 Hz. Data were recorded, stored and analyzed using the WINDAQ 200 software. For electrical analysis, the average voltage of the electrical wave in the three electrodes of all patients, expressed as millivolts (mV), was considered, together with the maximum and minimum values, the root mean square (RMS), the skewness, and the results of the fast Fourier transforms. The average RMS of the schistosomiasis mansoni patients was 284.007 mV. During a long period of contraction, the RMS increased in a statistically significant manner from 127.455 mV during a resting period to 748.959 mV in patients with schistosomiasis mansoni. We conclude that there were no statistically significant differences in RMS values between patients with schistosomiasis mansoni and patients without the disease during the rest period or during a long period of contraction.

An analysis of the methyl rotation dynamics in the So (x' A) and T (a A) states of thioacetaldehyde from Pyrolysis jet spectra /

Jet-cooled, laser-induced phosphorescence excitation spectra (LIP) of thioacetaldehyde CH3CHS, CH3CDS, CD3CHS and CD3CDS have been observed over the region 15800 - 17300 cm"^ in a continuous pyrolysis jet. The vibronic band structure of the singlet-triplet n -* n* transition were attributed to the strong coupling of the methyl torsion and aldehydic hydrogen wagging modes . The vibronic peaks have been assigned in terms of two upper electronic state (T^) vibrations; the methyl torsion mode v^g, and the aldehydic hydrogen wagging mode v^^. The electronic origin O^a^ is unequivocally assigned as follows: CH3CHS (16294.9 cm"'' ), CH3CDS (16360.9 cm"'' ), CD3CHS (16299.7 cm"^ ), and CD3CDS (16367.2 cm"'' ). To obtain structural and dynamical information about the two electronic states, potential surfaces V(e,a) for the 6 (methyl torsion) and a (hydrogen wagging) motions were generated by ab initio quantum mechanical calculations with a 6-3 IG* basis in which the structural parameters were fully relaxed. The kinetic energy coefficients BQ(a,e) , B^(a,G) , and the cross coupling term B^(a,e) , were accurately represented as functions of the two active coordinates, a and 9. The calculations reveal that the molecule adopts an eclipsed conformation for the lower Sq electronic state (a=0°,e=0"') with a barrier height to internal rotation of 541.5 cm"^ which is to be compared to 549.8 cm"^ obtained from the microwave experiment. The conformation of the upper T^ electronic state was found to be staggered (a=24 . 68° ,e=-45. 66° ) . The saddle point in the path traced out by the aldehyde wagging motion was calculated to be 175 cm"^ above the equilibrium configuration. The corresponding maxima in the path taken by methyl torsion was found to be 322 cm'\ The small amplitude normal vibrational modes were also calculated to aid in the assignment of the spectra. Torsional-wagging energy manifolds for the two states were derived from the Hamiltonian H(a,e) which was solved variationally using an extended two dimensional Fourier expansion as a basis set. A torsionalinversion band spectrum was derived from the calculated energy levels and Franck-Condon factors, and was compared with the experimental supersonic-jet spectra. Most of the anomalies which were associated with the interpretation of the observed spectrum could be accounted for by the band profiles derived from ab initio SCF calculations. A model describing the jet spectra was derived by scaling the ab initio potential functions. The global least squares fitting generates a triplet state potential which has a minimum at (a=22.38° ,e=-41.08°) . The flatter potential in the scaled model yielded excellent agreement between the observed and calculated frequency intervals.

Development and Analysis of a Drum-Shaped Compact Microstrip Antenna

The thesis is the outcome of the experimental and theoretical investigations on a new compact drum-shaped microstrip antenna. A new compact antenna suitable for personal communication system(PCS), Global position System(GPS) and array applications is developed and analysed. The generalised cavity model and spatial fourier transform technique are suitably modified for the analysis of the antenna. The predicted results are compared with experimental results and excellent agreement is observed. The experimental work done by the author in related fields are incorporated as three appendices in this thesis. A single feed dual frequency microstrip antenne is presented in appendix A.Appendix B describes a new broadband dual frequeny microstrip antenna. The bandwidth enhancement effect of microstrip antennas through dielectric resonator loading is demonstarted in Appendix C.

Analyse selbsterregter Strömungsfelder im Verdichter-Leitrad durch Kopplung von Particle Image Velocimetry und Hitzdrahtanemometrie mittels Fast Fourier Transformation

Der Einsatz der Particle Image Velocimetry (PIV) zur Analyse selbsterregter Strömungsphänomene und das dafür notwendige Auswerteverfahren werden in dieser Arbeit beschrieben. Zur Untersuchung von solchen Mechanismen, die in Turbo-Verdichtern als Rotierende Instabilitäten in Erscheinung treten, wird auf Datensätze zurückgegriffen, die anhand experimenteller Untersuchungen an einem ringförmigen Verdichter-Leitrad gewonnen wurden. Die Rotierenden Instabilitäten sind zeitabhängige Strömungsphänomene, die bei hohen aerodynamischen Belastungen in Verdichtergittern auftreten können. Aufgrund der fehlenden Phaseninformation kann diese instationäre Strömung mit konventionellen PIV-Systemen nicht erfasst werden. Die Kármánsche Wirbelstraße und Rotierende Instabilitäten stellen beide selbsterregte Strömungsvorgänge dar. Die Ähnlichkeit wird genutzt um die Funktionalität des Verfahrens anhand der Kármánschen Wirbelstraße nachzuweisen. Der mittels PIV zu visualisierende Wirbeltransport erfordert ein besonderes Verfahren, da ein externes Signal zur Festlegung des Phasenwinkels dieser selbsterregten Strömung nicht zur Verfügung steht. Die Methodik basiert auf der Kopplung der PIV-Technik mit der Hitzdrahtanemometrie. Die gleichzeitige Messung mittels einer zeitlich hochaufgelösten Hitzdraht-Messung ermöglicht den Zeitpunkten der PIV-Bilder einen Phasenwinkel zuzuordnen. Hierzu wird das Hitzdrahtsignal mit einem FFT-Verfahren analysiert, um die PIV-Bilder entsprechend ihrer Phasenwinkel zu gruppieren. Dafür werden die aufgenommenen Bilder auf der Zeitachse der Hitzdrahtmessungen markiert. Eine systematische Analyse des Hitzdrahtsignals in der Umgebung der PIV-Messung liefert Daten zur Festlegung der Grundfrequenz und erlaubt es, der markierten PIV-Position einen Phasenwinkel zuzuordnen. Die sich aus den PIV-Bildern einer Klasse ergebenden Geschwindigkeitskomponenten werden anschließend gemittelt. Aus den resultierenden Bildern jeder Klasse ergibt sich das zweidimensionale zeitabhängige Geschwindigkeitsfeld, in dem die Wirbelwanderung der Kármánschen Wirbelstraße ersichtlich wird. In hierauf aufbauenden Untersuchungen werden Zeitsignale aus Messungen in einem Verdichterringgitter analysiert. Dabei zeigt sich, dass zusätzlich Filterfunktionen erforderlich sind. Im Ergebnis wird schließlich deutlich, dass die Übertragung der anhand der Kármánschen Wirbelstraße entwickelten Methode nur teilweise gelingt und weitere Forschungsarbeiten erforderlich sind.

Sensitivity of feature-based analysis methods of storm tracks to the form of background field removal

For the tracking of extrema associated with weather systems to be applied to a broad range of fields it is necessary to remove a background field that represents the slowly varying, large spatial scales. The sensitivity of the tracking analysis to the form of background field removed is explored for the Northern Hemisphere winter storm tracks for three contrasting fields from an integration of the U. K. Met Office's (UKMO) Hadley Centre Climate Model (HadAM3). Several methods are explored for the removal of a background field from the simple subtraction of the climatology, to the more sophisticated removal of the planetary scales. Two temporal filters are also considered in the form of a 2-6-day Lanczos filter and a 20-day high-pass Fourier filter. The analysis indicates that the simple subtraction of the climatology tends to change the nature of the systems to the extent that there is a redistribution of the systems relative to the climatological background resulting in very similar statistical distributions for both positive and negative anomalies. The optimal planetary wave filter removes total wavenumbers less than or equal to a number in the range 5-7, resulting in distributions more easily related to particular types of weather system. For the temporal filters the 2-6-day bandpass filter is found to have a detrimental impact on the individual weather systems, resulting in the storm tracks having a weak waveguide type of behavior. The 20-day high-pass temporal filter is less aggressive than the 2-6-day filter and produces results falling between those of the climatological and 2-6-day filters.