Challenging the predictive ability of accounting techniques in modelling organizational futures

This article considers the role of accounting in organisational decision making. It challenges the rational nature of decisions made in organisations through the use of accounting models and the problems of predicting the future through the use of such models. The use of accounting in this manner is evaluated from an epochal postmodern stance. Issues raised by chaos theory and the uncertainty principle are used to demonstrate problems with the predictive ability of accounting models. The authors argue that any consideration of the predictive value of accounting needs to change to incorporate a recognition of the turbulent external environment, if it is to be of use for organisational decision making. Thus it is argued that the role of accounting as a mechanism for knowledge creation regarding the future is fundamentally flawed. We take this as a starting-point to argue for the real purpose of the use of the predictive techniques of accounting, using its ritualistic role in the context of myth creation to argue for the cultural benefits of the use of such flawed techniques.

An examination of the consequences of market orientation in China

Recent literature suggests that the relationship between market orientation and business performance may be moderated by the nature of the external environment. While the conceptual arguments for such a relationship are well established, empirical evidence on the precise nature of this link has been both limited and ambiguous. The current paper provides further evidence on the nature of the links between market orientation, the environment and performance through a comparative analysis of two business sectors in China with distinctively different competitive environments. The results indicate that market orientation's impact on business performance is positive regardless of environmental conditions. However, the environment is found to moderate the relationship between market orientation and customer satisfaction. Finally, the study provides evidence that market orientation also has positive impacts on power in distribution channels and corporate social responsibility.

A study of inputs and their influence on technological innovative activity

Technological innovation has been widely studied: however surprisingly little is known about the experience of managing the process. Most reports tend to be generalistic and/or prescriptive whereas it is argued that multiple sources of variation in the process limit the value of these. A description of the innovation process is given together with a presentation of what is knovrn from existing studies. Gaps identified in this area suggest that a variety of organisational influences are important and an attempt is made to identify some of these at individual, group and organisational level. A simple system model of the innovation management process is developed. Further investigation of the influence of these factors was made possible through an extended on-site case study. Methodology for this based upon participant observation coupled wth a wide and flexible range of techniques is described. Evidence is presented about many aspects of the innovation process from a number of different levels and perspectives: the attempt is to demonstrate the extent to which variation due to contingent influences takes place. It is argued that problems identified all relate to the issue of integration. This theme is also developed from an analytical viewoint and it is suggested that organisational response to increases in complexity in the external environment will be to match them with internal complexity. Differentiation of this kind will require extensive and flexible integration, especially in those inherently uncertain areas associated with innovation. Whilst traditionally a function of management, it is argued that integration needs have increased to the point where a new specialism is required. The concept of integration specialist is developed from this analysis and attempts at simple integrative change during the research are described. Finally a strategy for integration - or rather for building in integrative capability - ln the organisation studied is described.

Twelve steps to heaven:successfully managing change through developing innovative teams

In this article we propose that work teams implement many of the innovative changes required to enable organizations to respond appropriately to the external environment. We describe how, using an input?–?process?–?output model, we can identify the key elements necessary for developing team innovation. We propose that it is the implementation of ideas rather than their development that is crucial for enabling organizational change. Drawing on theory and relevant research, 12 steps to developing innovative teams are described covering key aspects of the team task, team composition, organizational context, and team processes.

Pore structure and diffusional properties of hardened cement pastes

This study has investigated the inclusion of pulverised fuel ash (PFA) and blast furnace slag (BFS) into hardened cement pastes (HCP) in retarding the ingress of chloride ions and oxygen molecules from the external environment. The influence of environmental factors such as drying and carbonation on the pore structure and diffusional properties of OPC, OPC/30%PFA and OPC/65%BFS hardened pastes was investigated. Specimens were desorbed from a saturated surface dry condition to a near constant weight at 65% relative humidity (RH) while others were simultaneously exposed to a 65% RH atmosphere and a carbon dioxide atmosphere of up to 5% by volume until there were fully carbonated. The presence of the interfacial zone at the cement paste-aggregate interface was critically reviewed and identified. The influence of the interfacial zone on porosity and chloride ingress in assumed periodic composites of glass bead mortars was also studied. The investigations have demonstrated the following: (a) The use of fly ash and slag in blended cement pastes has resulted in a marked reduction in capillary porosity and rate of chloride ingress. (b) The ratio of oxygen to chloride diffusion coefficients increased from values close to 1 in permeable pastes, to values of around 15 in low-permeability blended fly ash and slag pastes. This supports the view that the diffusion of chloride ions is retarded by the surface charge of the hydrated cement gel in low-permeability pastes. (c) Compared with plain OPC pastes, the carbonation of blended fly ash and slag pastes resulted in a marked increase in the coarse capillary porosity and a corresponding increase in the oxygen and chloride diffusion rates.

Change in third sector organisations: the impact of European Union funding in cross-national perspectives

This is a study of third sector organisations and organisational change resulting from European Union funding. While there is a growing body of research which shows how governmental funding can contribute to the organisational challenges that third sector organisations encounter, research on how European Union funding affects third sector organisations is limited. This thesis contributes towards closing this gap in knowledge by identifying a number of organisational changes which can be attributed to the use of European Union funding. A qualitative approach was taken to explore organisational change resulting from the use of URBAN II funding in nine third sector organisations which were studied in the context of the URBAN II programmes of Belfast, Berlin and Bristol. The conceptual framework for this study draws on organisation theory and resource dependence theory, together with concepts of co-production and multi-level governance. URBAN II funding was found to have affected organisational structures, processes, services, goals and participants, as well as the interactions of organisations with their external environment. In contrast to earlier research however, the findings from this study suggest that many of these organisational changes improved the capacity of third sector organisations to carry out their work. The cross-national comparison of the findings further showed that organisational impacts resulting from the use of URBAN II funding can vary significantly between different countries. Programme Managers were found to have played a critically important' role in enabling third sector organisations to obtain benefits from URBAN II funding. Many positive organisational changes arose from a close collaboration between Programme Managers and third sector organisations. Conversely, many negative organisational impacts were found to be due, not to the regulations associated with European funding, but primarily to the approach adopted by the Programme Managers and Local Development Partnerships towards engaging third sector organisations in programme delivery.

Which factors drive firm survival within an industry boundary over time?:the UK onshore oil and gas production industry 1984-1999

This thesis looks at the UK onshore oil and gas production industry and follows the history of a population of firms over a fifteen-year period following the industry's renaissance. It examines the linkage between firm survival, selection pressures and adaptation responses at the firm level, especially the role of discretionary adaptation, specifically exploration and exploitation strategies.Taking a Realist approach and using quantitative and qualitative methods for triangulation on a new data base derived from archival data, as well as informant interviews, it tests seven hypotheses' about post-entry survival of firms. The quantitative findings suggest that firm survival within this industry is linked to discretionary adaptation, when measured at the firm level, and to a mixture of selection and adaptation forces when measured for each firm for each individual year. The qualitative research suggests that selection factors dominate. This difference in views is unresolved. However the small, sparse population and the nature of the oil and gas industry compared with other common research contexts such as manufacturing or service firms suggests the results be treated with caution as befits a preliminary investigation. The major findings include limited support for the theory that the external environment is the major determinant of firm survival, though environment components affect firms differentially; resolution of apparent literature differences relating to the sequencing of exploration and exploitation and potential tangible evidence of coevolution. The research also finds that, though selection may be considered important by industry players, discretionary adaptation appears to play the key role, and that the key survival drivers for thispopulation are intra-industry ties, exploitation experience and a learning/experience component. Selection has a place, however, in determining the life-cycle of the firm returning to be a key survival driver at certain ages of the firm inside the industry boundary.

Professional standards research:job satisfaction and innovation

Job satisfaction is a significant predictor of organisational innovation – especially where employees (including shop-floor workers) experience variety in their jobs and work in a single-status environment. The relationship between job satisfaction and performance has long intrigued work psychologists. The idea that "happy workers are productive workers" underpins many theories of performance, leadership, reward and job design. But contrary to popular belief, the relationship between job satisfaction and performance at individual level has been shown to be relatively weak. Research investigating the link between job satisfaction and creativity (the antecedent to innovation) shows that job dissatisfaction promotes creative outcomes. The logic is that those who are dissatisfied (and have decided to stay with the organisation) are determined to change things and have little to lose in doing so (see JM George & J Zhou, 2002). We were therefore surprised to find in the course of our own research into managerial practices and employee attitudes in manufacturing organisations that job satisfaction was a highly significant predictor of product and technological innovation. These results held even though the research was conducted longitudinally, over two years, while controlling for prior innovation. In other words, job satisfaction was a stronger predictor of innovation than any pre-existing orientation organisations had towards working innovatively. Using prior innovation as a control variable, as well as a longitudinal research design, strengthened our case against the argument that people are satisfied because they belong to a highly innovative organisation. We found that the relationship between job satisfaction and innovation was stronger still where organisations showed that they were committed to promoting job variety, especially at shop-floor level. We developed precise instruments to measure innovation, taking into account the magnitude of the innovation both in terms of the number of people involved in its implementation, and how new and different it was. Using this instrument, we are able to give each organisation in our sample a "score" from one to seven for innovation in areas ranging from administration to production technology. We found that much innovation is incremental, involving relatively minor improvements, rather than major change. To achieve sustained innovation, organisations have to draw on the skills and knowledge of employees at all levels. We also measured job satisfaction at organisational level, constructing a mean "job satisfaction" score for all organisations in our sample, and drawing only on those companies whose employees tended to respond in a similar manner to the questions they were asked. We argue that where most of the workforce experience job satisfaction, employees are more likely to collaborate, to share ideas and aim for high standards because people are keen to sustain their positive feelings. Job variety and single-status arrangements further strengthen the relationship between satisfaction and performance. This makes sense; where employees experience variety, they are exposed to new and different ideas and, provided they feel positive about their jobs, are likely to be willing to try to apply these ideas to improve their jobs. Similarly, staff working in single-status environments where hierarchical barriers are reduced are likely to feel trusted and valued by management and there is evidence (see G Jones & J George, 1998) that people work collaboratively and constructively with those they trust. Our study suggests that there is a strong business case for promoting employee job satisfaction. Managers and HR practitioners need to ensure their strategies and practices support and sustain job satisfaction among their workforces to encourage constructive, collaborative and creative working. It is more important than ever for organisations to respond rapidly to demands of the external environment. This study shows the positive association between organisational-level job satisfaction and innovation. So if a happy workforce is the key to unlocking innovation and organisations want to thrive in the global economy, it is vital that managers and HR practitioners pay close attention to employee perceptions of the work environment. In a world where the most innovative survive it could make all the difference.

The influence of context on the strategic decision-making process:a review of the literature

This paper critically reviews the strategic decision-making process literature, with a specific focus on the effects of context. Context refers to the top management team, strategic decision-specific characteristics, the external environment and firm characteristics. This literature review also develops an illustrative framework that incorporates these four different categories of contextual variables that influence the strategic decision-making process. As a result of the variety and pervasiveness of contextual variables featured within the literature, a comprehensive and up-to-date review is essential for organizing and synthesizing the extant literature to explicate an agenda for future research. The purpose of this literature review is threefold: first, to critically review the strategic decision-making process literature to highlight the underlying themes, issues, tensions and debates in the field; second, to identify the opportunities for future theory development; and third, to state the methodological implications arising from this review. © 2013 British Academy of Management and John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

An empirical examination of the strategic decision-making process:the relationship between context, process, and outcomes

Despite concerted academic interest in the strategic decision-making process (SDMP) since the 1980s, a coherent body of theory capable of guiding practice has not materialised. This is because many prior studies focus only on a single process characteristic, often rationality or comprehensiveness, and have paid insufficient attention to context. To further develop theory, research is required which examines: (i) the influence of context from multiple theoretical perspectives (e.g. upper echelons, environmental determinism); (ii) different process characteristics from both synoptic formal (e.g. rationality) and political incremental (e.g. politics) perspectives, and; (iii) the effects of context and process characteristics on a range of SDMP outcomes. Using data from 30 interviews and 357 questionnaires, this thesis addresses several opportunities for theory development by testing an integrative model which incorporates: (i) five SDMP characteristics representing both synoptic formal (procedural rationality, comprehensiveness, and behavioural integration) and political incremental (intuition, and political behaviour) perspectives; (ii) four SDMP outcome variables—strategic decision (SD) quality, implementation success, commitment, and SD speed, and; (iii) contextual variables from the four theoretical perspectives—upper echelons, SD-specific characteristics, environmental determinism, and firm characteristics. The present study makes several substantial and original contributions to knowledge. First, it provides empirical evidence of the contextual boundary conditions under which intuition and political behaviour positively influence SDMP outcomes. Second, it establishes the predominance of the upper echelons perspective; with TMT variables explaining significantly more variance in SDMP characteristics than SD specific characteristics, the external environment, and firm characteristics. A newly developed measure of top management team expertise also demonstrates highly significant direct and indirect effects on the SDMP. Finally, it is evident that SDMP characteristics and contextual variables influence a number of SDMP outcomes, not just overall SD quality, but also implementation success, commitment, and SD speed.

Using the Simulation Modeling Methods for the Designing Real-Time Integrated Expert Systems

Certain theoretical and methodological problems of designing real-time dynamical expert systems, which belong to the class of the most complex integrated expert systems, are discussed. Primary attention is given to the problems of designing subsystems for modeling the external environment in the case where the environment is represented by complex engineering systems. A specific approach to designing simulation models for complex engineering systems is proposed and examples of the application of this approach based on the G2 (Gensym Corp.) tool system are described.

Szimulációk és érzékenységvizsgálatok a magyar gazdaság egy középméretű makromodelljével = Simulations and sensitivity analyses with a medium-sized macro model of the Hungarian economy

A tanulmányban a Pénzügyminisztérium gazdaságpolitikai főosztálya és az MTA Közgazdaságtudományi Intézete által kifejlesztett középméretű negyedéves makrogazdasági modell segítségével elemezzük a magyar gazdaság legfontosabb mechanizmusait. A modellezés során követett alapelvek és a modell blokkjainak bemutatása után egy forgatókönyv-elemzés keretében vizsgáljuk a makrogazdasági és költségvetési folyamatokat befolyásoló főbb faktorok hatásait. A - tágan értelmezett - "bizonytalansági tényezőket" három csoportba soroljuk: megkülönböztetjük a külső környezet (például árfolyam) változását, a gazdasági szereplők viselkedésében rejlő bizonytalanságokat (például a bérigazodás sebességének vagy a fogyasztássimítás mértékének bizonytalanságát), valamint a gazdaságpolitikai lépéseket (például állami bérek emelését). Megmutatjuk, hogy e kockázatok makrokövetkezményei nem függetlenek egymástól, például egy árfolyamváltozás hatását befolyásolja a bérigazodás sebessége. ______ This paper analyses the most important mechanisms of the Hungarian economy using a medium-sized quarterly macroeconomic model developed jointly by the Economic Policy Department of the Ministry of Finance and the Institute of Economics of the Hungarian Academy of Sciences. After introducing the fundamental principles of modelling and the building blocks of the model investigated, within a scenario analysis, the authors present the effects of the main factors behind the macroeconomic and budgetary processes. The sources of uncertainty - defined in a broad sense - are categorized in three groups: change in the external environment (e.g. the exchange rate), uncertainties in the behav-iour of economic agents (e.g. in speed of wage adjustment or extent of consumption smoothing), and economic policy decisions (e.g. the increase in public sector wages). The macroeconomic consequences of these uncertainties are shown not to be independent of each other. For instance, the effects of an exchange rate shock are influenced by the speed of wage adjustment.

Determinants of resource development strategies in nonprofit organizations: An analysis of children, youth and family services

This study is an exploratory analysis of an operational measure for resource development strategies, and an exploratory analysis of internal organizational contingencies influencing choices of these strategies in charitable nonprofit organizations. The study provides conceptual guidance for advancing understanding about resource development in the nonprofit sector. The statistical findings are, however, inconclusive without further rigorous examination. A three category typology based on organization technology is initially presented to define the strategies. Three dimensions of internal organizational contingencies explored represent organization identity, professional staff, and boards of directors. Based on relevant literature and key informant interviews, an original survey was administered by mail to a national sample of nonprofit organizations. The survey collected data on indicators of the proposed strategy types and selected contingencies. Factor analysis extracted two of the initial categories in the typology. The Building Resource Development Infrastructure Strategy encompasses information technology, personnel, legal structures, and policies facilitating fund development. The Building Resource Development Infrastructure Strategy encompasses the mission, service niche, and type of service delivery forming the basis for seeking financial support. Linear regressions with each strategy type as the dependent variable identified distinct and common contingencies which may partly explain choices of strategies. Discriminant analysis suggests the potential predictive accuracy of the contingencies. Follow-up case studies with survey respondents provide additional criteria for operationalizing future measures of resource development strategies, and support and expand the analysis on contingencies. The typology offers a beginning framework for defining alternative approaches to resource development, and for exploring organization capacity specific to each approach. Contingencies that may be integral components of organization capacity are funding, leadership frame, background and experience, staff and volunteer effort, board member support, and relationships in the external environment. Based on these findings, management questions are offered for nonprofit organization stakeholders to consider in planning for resource development. Lessons learned in designing and conducting this study are also provided to enhance future related research. ^

Tobacco use prevention education (TUPE) programs in the state of Florida: Teachers' perceptions of program structure and effectiveness

This study described teacher perceptions of TUPE program effectiveness in Florida in an attempt to improve programs by identifying factors that might influence teacher motivation and performance. Very little work has been done to examine how teachers' perceptions are related to the effectiveness of TUPE programs. A statewide survey provided information about how teachers' perceptions of program effectiveness are affected by variables such as: program structure, barriers, tobacco use norms, and training variables. Data were obtained from a telephone survey conducted in Florida as part of the Tobacco Pilot Project (TPP). The sample included 296 middle school teachers and 282 high school teachers as well as 193 middle school principals and 190 high school principals. Correlational and hierarchical regression analyses identified correlates and predictors of teachers' ratings of effectiveness. Results suggest that use of peer leaders, more frequent evaluations, a higher degree of parent involvement, fewer barriers, greater student interest, and lower tolerance for tobacco use were correlated with higher ratings of program effectiveness. Furthermore, student interest, peer, staff, and community tolerance norms, peer leaders, program evaluation, and parent involvement predicted middle school teachers' perceptions. Parent tolerance, student interest, number of barriers, and more frequent program evaluation predicted high school teachers' perceptions. In addition, middle school teachers who reported a lower number of factors negatively associated with teacher receptivity were more likely to view TUPE programs more favorably than teachers who reported a greater number of these risk factors. This relationship was not as robust among the high school teacher sample. Differences between the middle and high school sample were found in the magnitude and number of significant correlations, the proportion of variance accounted for by predictor variables, and the strength of the relationship between the number of factors negatively associated with teacher receptivity and teachers' perceptions of TUPE effectiveness. These findings highlighted the importance of the timing, program features, and the external environment for enhancing or minimizing teachers' ratings of TUPE program effectiveness. In conclusion, significant increases in TUPE teachers' self-efficacy will occur through the participation of peers, parents, staff, and community leaders in different aspects of TUPE programs. ^

Desenvolvimento biotecnológico de uma emulsão de uso tópico a base de óleo de rã-touro Rana catesbeiana Shaw

The skin is one of the largest organs of the human body and accounts for about 16% of body weight. The body protection against the external environment microorganisms is one of its most important functions, however is necessary that the skin remain intact for this function be exercised, so that when there is an injury on the skin, the process of restructuring needs to be starts, however this restructuration may also be compromised due to some diseases, justifying even more the need for the development of topical products that promote or accelerate the skin healing. Thus the aim of this study was to extract bullfrog oil and to develop a suitable topical emulsion. Two different oil samples were extracted by hot or organic solvent process. Titration techniques and gas chromatography- mass spectrometry were used to characterize the bullfrog oil. The required hydrophile-lipophile balance (HLBr) of bullfrog oil was determined and a pseudo-ternary phase diagram was constructed. The stability of the topical emulsion was evaluated. Then, cellular viability was determined by MTT assay using normal fibroblasts (3T3) and melanoma (B16F10) cells lines. The hot extraction yield was 60.6%. The major polyunsaturated compounds found were Eicosapentaenoic acid (17.6%) and Arachidonic acid (8.4%). HLBr study demonstrated the presence of stable systems with HLB ranging from 12.1 to 13.5 and the pseudo-ternary phase diagram showed mainly emulsion systems (62%). Topical emulsion showed 390 nm, polydispersity 0.05, zeta potential -25 mV and remained stable for ninety days. The bullfrog oil and topical emulsion did not showed citotoxicity in normal fibroblasts cells. However, these systems showed significantly inhibition of melanoma cells growth. In conclusion, the bullfrog oil presented desirable chemical characteristics required to be used for the development of a pharmaceutical and cosmetic products.