Asymptotic robust inferences in the analysis of mean and covariance structures

Structural equation models are widely used in economic, socialand behavioral studies to analyze linear interrelationships amongvariables, some of which may be unobservable or subject to measurementerror. Alternative estimation methods that exploit different distributionalassumptions are now available. The present paper deals with issues ofasymptotic statistical inferences, such as the evaluation of standarderrors of estimates and chi--square goodness--of--fit statistics,in the general context of mean and covariance structures. The emphasisis on drawing correct statistical inferences regardless of thedistribution of the data and the method of estimation employed. A(distribution--free) consistent estimate of $\Gamma$, the matrix ofasymptotic variances of the vector of sample second--order moments,will be used to compute robust standard errors and a robust chi--squaregoodness--of--fit squares. Simple modifications of the usual estimateof $\Gamma$ will also permit correct inferences in the case of multi--stage complex samples. We will also discuss the conditions under which,regardless of the distribution of the data, one can rely on the usual(non--robust) inferential statistics. Finally, a multivariate regressionmodel with errors--in--variables will be used to illustrate, by meansof simulated data, various theoretical aspects of the paper.

Immigration and housing booms: Evidence from Spain

We estimate empirically the effect of immigration on house prices and residentialconstruction activity in Spain over the period 1998-2008. This decade is characterized by both aspectacular housing market boom and a stunning immigration wave. We exploit the variation inimmigration across Spanish provinces and construct an instrument based on the historicallocation patterns of immigrants by country of origin. The evidence points to a sizeable causaleffect of immigration on both prices and quantities in the housing market. Between 1998 and2008, the average Spanish province received an immigrant inflow equal to 17% of the initialworking-age population. We estimate that this inflow increased house prices by about 52% andis responsible for 37% of the total construction of new housing units during the period. Thesefigures imply that immigration can account for roughly one third of the housing boom, both interms of prices and new construction.

OS CONTRACTOS DE CONCESSÃO NO CONTEXTO DO SISTEMA DE NORMALIZAÇÃO CONTABILÍSTICA E DE RELATO FINANCEIRO

A mudança do normativo contabilístico ocorrido em 2009, alterou o paradigma de reconhecimento e mensuração de activos. Embora a natureza das operações contínua presente no processo contabilístico, muitas coisas foram alteradas tendo em conta a substância da informação e a sua realidade económica. O caso dos contratos de concessão é disto um bom exemplo. Há casos em que no normativo anterior eram reconhecidos como activos fixos tangíveis e actualmente são reconhecidos como intangíveis. O estudo em causa tem como objetivo principal analisar o conceito dos contratos de concessão, bem como os procedimentos para o reconhecimento, mensuração e divulgação nas demonstrações financeiras. Considerados activos intangíveis (de facto a entidade acaba por ter um “Direito” de explorar um determinado activo), o processo contabilístico é feito a luz do disposto na Norma de Relato Financeiro nº6 – Activos Intangíveis. Os contractos de concessão apresentam especificidades próprias e por esta razão o IASB emitiu uma IFRIC (nº 12) com o objectivo de clarificar o tratamento contabilístico desta problemática. Não existindo no normativo nacional tal norma interpretativa as empresas nacionais que convivem com esta realidade vêem-se na contingência de, supletivamente, recorrer às normas internacionais de contabilidade para resolver o assunto. É o caso da ELECTRA para os activos afectos a distribuição. Neste sentido, o estudo debruça sobre esta problemática, apresenta um enquadramento teórico, analisar os principais aspectos de reconhecimento a luz dos dois normativos contabilísticos nacionais (o antigo Plano Nacional de Contabilidade e o actual Sistema de Normalização Contabilística e de Relato Financeiro) e termina utilizando as informações da ELECTRA, SARL para ilustrar este processo de reconhecimento contabilístico. The change of a the accounting regulatory occurred in 2009, changed the paradigm for recognizing and measuring assets. Although the continuous nature of the operations in this accounting process, many things have changed in view of the substance of information and its economic reality. The case of concession contracts, it is a good example. There are cases where the former were recognized as legal and tangible fixed assets are currently recognized as intangible assets. The study is aimed to analyzing the concept of concession contracts, as well as procedures for the recognition, measurement and disclosure in the financial statements. Considered intangible assets (in fact the entity turns out to have a “right” to exploit a particular asset) the accounting process is done in light of the provisions of Financial Reporting Standard No. 6 – Intangible Assets. The concession contracts have specific characteristics and for this reason the IASB issued IFRIC one (Ner. 12 ) in order to clarify the accounting treatment of this problem. In the absence of such a standard national regulatory interpretative national companies that live with this reality find themselves in contingency, additionally, make use of international accounting standards to resolve the matter. ELECTRA is the case of the assets connected to the distribution. In this sense, the study focuses on this issue, presents a theoretical framework to analyze the main aspects of recognition light of both national accounting standards (formerly the National Accounting Standards and the current system of accounting and financial reporting) and ends up using the information the Electra SARL to illustrate this process of accounting recognition.

Mutualism with sea anemones triggered the adaptive radiation of clownfishes.

ABSTRACT: BACKGROUND: Adaptive radiation is the process by which a single ancestral species diversifies into many descendants adapted to exploit a wide range of habitats. The appearance of ecological opportunities, or the colonisation or adaptation to novel ecological resources, has been documented to promote adaptive radiation in many classic examples. Mutualistic interactions allow species to access resources untapped by competitors, but evidence shows that the effect of mutualism on species diversification can greatly vary among mutualistic systems. Here, we test whether the development of obligate mutualism with sea anemones allowed the clownfishes to radiate adaptively across the Indian and western Pacific oceans reef habitats. RESULTS: We show that clownfishes morphological characters are linked with ecological niches associated with the sea anemones. This pattern is consistent with the ecological speciation hypothesis. Furthermore, the clownfishes show an increase in the rate of species diversification as well as rate of morphological evolution compared to their closest relatives without anemone mutualistic associations. CONCLUSIONS: The effect of mutualism on species diversification has only been studied in a limited number of groups. We present a case of adaptive radiation where mutualistic interaction is the likely key innovation, providing new insights into the mechanisms involved in the buildup of biodiversity. Due to a lack of barriers to dispersal, ecological speciation is rare in marine environments. Particular life-history characteristics of clownfishes likely reinforced reproductive isolation between populations, allowing rapid species diversification.

Parallel scheduling of multiclass M/M/m queues: Approximate and heavy-traffic optimization of achievable performance

We address the problem of scheduling a multiclass $M/M/m$ queue with Bernoulli feedback on $m$ parallel servers to minimize time-average linear holding costs. We analyze the performance of a heuristic priority-index rule, which extends Klimov's optimal solution to the single-server case: servers select preemptively customers with larger Klimov indices. We present closed-form suboptimality bounds (approximate optimality) for Klimov's rule, which imply that its suboptimality gap is uniformly bounded above with respect to (i) external arrival rates, as long as they stay within system capacity;and (ii) the number of servers. It follows that its relativesuboptimality gap vanishes in a heavy-traffic limit, as external arrival rates approach system capacity (heavy-traffic optimality). We obtain simpler expressions for the special no-feedback case, where the heuristic reduces to the classical $c \mu$ rule. Our analysis is based on comparing the expected cost of Klimov's ruleto the value of a strong linear programming (LP) relaxation of the system's region of achievable performance of mean queue lengths. In order to obtain this relaxation, we derive and exploit a new set ofwork decomposition laws for the parallel-server system. We further report on the results of a computational study on the quality of the $c \mu$ rule for parallel scheduling.

Voting after the bombing: Can terrorist attacks change the outcome of democratic elections?

Economists have recently turned their attention to the effects of terrorism. One much debated effect of terrorist attacks is its impact on the results of democratic elections. We use the electoral consequences of the terrorist attacks of the 11-M in Madrid to analyze this issue. We consider this particular experiment since the attack took place only three days before the 2004 Congressional Election, which allows the use of credible identification criteria. In particular, we use the advance voting by Spanish residents abroad, who cast their vote before the terrorist attack, to identify the effect of the bombing. We exploit this macabre natural experiment to run a difference-in-differences estimation using data on three consecutive Congressional elections. Our empirical results indicate that a terrorist attack can have a large impact on the outcome of democratic elections.

The importance of relative performance feedback information: Evidence from a natural experiment using high school students

We study the effect of providing relative performance feedback information onperformance, when individuals are rewarded according to their absolute performance. Anatural experiment that took place in a high school offers an unusual opportunity to testthis effect in a real-effort setting. For one year only, students received information thatallowed them to know whether they were performing above (below) the class average aswell as the distance from this average. We exploit a rich panel data set and find that theprovision of this information led to an increase of 5% in students grades. Moreover, theeffect was significant for the whole distribution. However, once the information wasremoved, the effect disappeared. To rule out the concern that the effect may beartificially driven by teachers within the school, we verify our results using nationallevel exams (externally graded) for the same students, and the effect remains.

A comparison of stock market mechanisms

This paper studies the relationship between the amount of publicinformation that stock market prices incorporate and the equilibriumbehavior of market participants. The analysis is framed in a static, NREEsetup where traders exchange vectors of assets accessing multidimensionalinformation under two alternative market structures. In the first(the unrestricted system), both informed and uninformed speculators cancondition their demands for each traded asset on all equilibrium prices;in the second (the restricted system), they are restricted to conditiontheir demand on the price of the asset they want to trade. I show thatinformed traders incentives to exploit multidimensional privateinformation depend on the number of prices they can condition upon whensubmitting their demand schedules, and on the specific price formationprocess one considers. Building on this insight, I then give conditionsunder which the restricted system is more efficient than the unrestrictedsystem.

The optimal length of contracts with application to outsourcing

This paper resolves three empirical puzzles in outsourcing by formalizing the adaptationcost of long-term performance contracts. Side-trading with a new partner alongside a long-term contract (to exploit an adaptation-requiring investment) is usually less effective than switching to the new partner when the contract expires. So long-term contracts that prevent holdup of specific investments may induce holdup of adaptation investments. Contract length therefore trades of specific and adaptation investments. Length should increase with the importance and specificity of self-investments, and decrease with the importance of adaptation investments for which side-trading is ineffective. My general model also shows how optimal length falls with cross-investments and wasteful investments.

Experiencing simulated outcomes

Whereas much literature has documented difficulties in making probabilistic inferences, it hasalso emphasized the importance of task characteristics in determining judgmental accuracy.Noting that people exhibit remarkable efficiency in encoding frequency information sequentially,we construct tasks that exploit this ability by requiring people to experience the outcomes ofsequentially simulated data. We report two experiments. The first involved seven well-knownprobabilistic inference tasks. Participants differed in statistical sophistication and answered withand without experience obtained through sequentially simulated outcomes in a design thatpermitted both between- and within-subject analyses. The second experiment involvedinterpreting the outcomes of a regression analysis when making inferences for investmentdecisions. In both experiments, even the statistically naïve make accurate probabilistic inferencesafter experiencing sequentially simulated outcomes and many prefer this presentation format. Weconclude by discussing theoretical and practical implications.

Molecular modeling study of the binding and signaling properties of the TCRpMHC complex

The activation of the specific immune response against tumor cells is based on the recognition by the CD8+ Cytotoxic Τ Lymphocytes (CTL), of antigenic peptides (p) presented at the surface of the cell by the class I major histocompatibility complex (MHC). The ability of the so-called T-Cell Receptors (TCR) to discriminate between self and non-self peptides constitutes the most important specific control mechanism against infected cells. The TCR/pMHC interaction has been the subject of much attention in cancer therapy since the design of the adoptive transfer approach, in which Τ lymphocytes presenting an interesting response against tumor cells are extracted from the patient, expanded in vitro, and reinfused after immunodepletion, possibly leading to cancer regression. In the last decade, major progress has been achieved by the introduction of engineered lypmhocytes. In the meantime, the understanding of the molecular aspects of the TCRpMHC interaction has become essential to guide in vitro and in vivo studies. In 1996, the determination of the first structure of a TCRpMHC complex by X-ray crystallography revealed the molecular basis of the interaction. Since then, molecular modeling techniques have taken advantage of crystal structures to study the conformational space of the complex, and understand the specificity of the recognition of the pMHC by the TCR. In the meantime, experimental techniques used to determine the sequences of TCR that bind to a pMHC complex have been used intensively, leading to the collection of large repertoires of TCR sequences that are specific for a given pMHC. There is a growing need for computational approaches capable of predicting the molecular interactions that occur upon TCR/pMHC binding without relying on the time consuming resolution of a crystal structure. This work presents new approaches to analyze the molecular principles that govern the recognition of the pMHC by the TCR and the subsequent activation of the T-cell. We first introduce TCRep 3D, a new method to model and study the structural properties of TCR repertoires, based on homology and ab initio modeling. We discuss the methodology in details, and demonstrate that it outperforms state of the art modeling methods in predicting relevant TCR conformations. Two successful applications of TCRep 3D that supported experimental studies on TCR repertoires are presented. Second, we present a rigid body study of TCRpMHC complexes that gives a fair insight on the TCR approach towards pMHC. We show that the binding mode of the TCR is correctly described by long-distance interactions. Finally, the last section is dedicated to a detailed analysis of an experimental hydrogen exchange study, which suggests that some regions of the constant domain of the TCR are subject to conformational changes upon binding to the pMHC. We propose a hypothesis of the structural signaling of TCR molecules leading to the activation of the T-cell. It is based on the analysis of correlated motions in the TCRpMHC structure. - L'activation de la réponse immunitaire spécifique dirigée contre les cellules tumorales est basée sur la reconnaissance par les Lymphocytes Τ Cytotoxiques (CTL), d'un peptide antigénique (p) présenté à la suface de la cellule par le complexe majeur d'histocompatibilité de classe I (MHC). La capacité des récepteurs des lymphocytes (TCR) à distinguer les peptides endogènes des peptides étrangers constitue le mécanisme de contrôle le plus important dirigé contre les cellules infectées. L'interaction entre le TCR et le pMHC est le sujet de beaucoup d'attention dans la thérapie du cancer, depuis la conception de la méthode de transfer adoptif: les lymphocytes capables d'une réponse importante contre les cellules tumorales sont extraits du patient, amplifiés in vitro, et réintroduits après immunosuppression. Il peut en résulter une régression du cancer. Ces dix dernières années, d'importants progrès ont été réalisés grâce à l'introduction de lymphocytes modifiés par génie génétique. En parallèle, la compréhension du TCRpMHC au niveau moléculaire est donc devenue essentielle pour soutenir les études in vitro et in vivo. En 1996, l'obtention de la première structure du complexe TCRpMHC à l'aide de la cristallographie par rayons X a révélé les bases moléculaires de l'interaction. Depuis lors, les techniques de modélisation moléculaire ont exploité les structures expérimentales pour comprendre la spécificité de la reconnaissance du pMHC par le TCR. Dans le même temps, de nouvelles techniques expérimentales permettant de déterminer la séquence de TCR spécifiques envers un pMHC donné, ont été largement exploitées. Ainsi, d'importants répertoires de TCR sont devenus disponibles, et il est plus que jamais nécessaire de développer des approches informatiques capables de prédire les interactions moléculaires qui ont lieu lors de la liaison du TCR au pMHC, et ce sans dépendre systématiquement de la résolution d'une structure cristalline. Ce mémoire présente une nouvelle approche pour analyser les principes moléculaires régissant la reconnaissance du pMHC par le TCR, et l'activation du lymphocyte qui en résulte. Dans un premier temps, nous présentons TCRep 3D, une nouvelle méthode basée sur les modélisations par homologie et ab initio, pour l'étude de propriétés structurales des répertoires de TCR. Le procédé est discuté en détails et comparé à des approches standard. Nous démontrons ainsi que TCRep 3D est le plus performant pour prédire des conformations pertinentes du TCR. Deux applications à des études expérimentales des répertoires TCR sont ensuite présentées. Dans la seconde partie de ce travail nous présentons une étude de complexes TCRpMHC qui donne un aperçu intéressant du mécanisme d'approche du pMHC par le TCR. Finalement, la dernière section se concentre sur l'analyse détaillée d'une étude expérimentale basée sur les échanges deuterium/hydrogène, dont les résultats révèlent que certaines régions clés du domaine constant du TCR sont sujettes à un changement conformationnel lors de la liaison au pMHC. Nous proposons une hypothèse pour la signalisation structurelle des TCR, menant à l'activation du lymphocyte. Celle-ci est basée sur l'analyse des mouvements corrélés observés dans la structure du TCRpMHC.

Hacia un modelo de análisis de políticas públicas operativ : Un enfoque basado en los actores, sus recursos y las instituciones

Towards an operative analysis of public policies: An approach focused on actors, resources and institutions. This article develops an analytical model which is centred on the individual and collective behaviour of actors involved during different stages of public policy. We postulate that the content and institutional characteristics of public action (dependent variable) are the result of interactions between political-administrative authorities, on the one hand, and, on the other, social groups which cause or suffer the negative effects of a collective problem which public action attempts to resolve (independent variables). The 'game' of the actors depends not only on their particular interests, but also on their resources (money, time, consensus, organization, rights, infrastructure, information, personnel, strength, political support) which they are able to exploit to defend their positions, as well as on the institutional rules which frame these policy games.

Revenue management under general discrete choice model of consumer behavior

Customer choice behavior, such as 'buy-up' and 'buy-down', is an importantphe-nomenon in a wide range of industries. Yet there are few models ormethodologies available to exploit this phenomenon within yield managementsystems. We make some progress on filling this void. Specifically, wedevelop a model of yield management in which the buyers' behavior ismodeled explicitly using a multi-nomial logit model of demand. Thecontrol problem is to decide which subset of fare classes to offer ateach point in time. The set of open fare classes then affects the purchaseprobabilities for each class. We formulate a dynamic program todetermine the optimal control policy and show that it reduces to a dynamicnested allocation policy. Thus, the optimal choice-based policy caneasily be implemented in reservation systems that use nested allocationcontrols. We also develop an estimation procedure for our model based onthe expectation-maximization (EM) method that jointly estimates arrivalrates and choice model parameters when no-purchase outcomes areunobservable. Numerical results show that this combined optimization-estimation approach may significantly improve revenue performancerelative to traditional leg-based models that do not account for choicebehavior.

The effect of divorce laws on divorce rates in Europe

This paper analyzes a panel of 18 European countries spanning from 1950 to 2003 toexamine the extent to which the legal reforms leading to easier divorce that took placeduring the second half of the 20th century have contributed to the increase in divorce rates across Europe. We use a quasi-experimental set-up and exploit the different timing of the reforms in divorce laws across countries. We account for unobserved country-specificfactors by introducing country fixed effects, and we include country-specific trends tocontrol for time-varying factors at the country level that may be correlated with divorcerates and divorce laws, such as changing social norms or slow moving demographictrends. We find that the reforms were followed by significant increases in divorce rates.Overall, we estimate that the introduction of no-fault, unilateral divorce increased thedivorce rate by about 1, a sizeable effect given the average rate of 4.2 divorces per 1,000married people in 2002.

Do Jardim-de-Infância ao Centro de Actividades de Tempos Livres: Representações das Crianças sobre o Brincar

A investigação “Do Jardim-de-infância ao Centro de Actividades de Tempos Livres: Representações das Crianças sobre o Brincar” reconhece as crianças como actores sociais, sujeitos de direitos, entre eles, o direito à participação em assuntos que lhes digam directamente respeito, a assuntos de seu interesse, nomeadamente o direito ao brincar. O brincar é uma actividade lúdica, assim como o jogar, importante no processo de crescimento e desenvolvimento da criança e, nos tempos que correm, a sociedade, de uma forma geral, e particularmente as famílias, preocupam-se muito com o trabalho e colocam as necessidades básicas das crianças em segundo plano ao valorizarem acima de tudo o sucesso e o desempenho das mesmas. Assim, se participar significa “tomar parte em”, reconhece-se a necessidade de ouvir as crianças e o que elas têm a dizer sobre essa actividade lúdica, sobre a forma como organizam o seu dia e o tempo que despendem para brincar e sobre a forma como gostariam de ver os seus dias ocupados. É neste pressuposto, de que é através da acção e da voz das crianças, que é possível a construção de um conhecimento teórico e válido que contribua para uma melhor intervenção educativa com as crianças. Esta investigação, que decorreu numa instituição com várias vertentes, entre elas a vertente da Animação Infantil, enquadra-se no paradigma qualitativo de natureza participativa, e procura interpretar os significados atribuídos pelas crianças, que frequentam o Jardim-deinfância da rede pública e a mesma instituição, na condição de Componente de Apoio à Família, ao brincar, às suas vivências no que concerne à gestão do seu quotidiano, quer no que refere ao tempo que passam no Jardim-de-infância, quer no que passam no Prolongamento de Horário/Actividades de Tempos Livres. Neste trabalho de investigação que decorreu numa instituição situada numa freguesia pertencente ao Distrito de Viana do Castelo e que disponibiliza os serviços de ATL, participaram como protagonistas as crianças da faixa etária entre os três e os seis anos de idade e que frequentam dois contextos: educacional e lúdico. Este trabalho é sustentado por um referencial teórico que engloba o brincar na sociedade actual e a sua importância, a educação pré-escolar e as suas funções, a natureza da componente de apoio à família, a animação sócio-educativa e os contextos de vida das crianças, que permitiram questionar a participação infantil em assuntos de seu interesse. Ainda que este estudo não permita generalizações, reflecte-se sobre a realidade existente, dá voz às crianças e indica aspectos que, de uma forma geral, precisam de mais atenção. Afinal o brincar na infância é um assunto sério…