975 resultados para Explanatory power


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Secret and power constitute two fundamental instances of the social world. Secret takes care of the concealment of things and of social processes. Secret is also a power device. Power is the social capacity to do, create, not doing and stop from doing. Secret and power get mutual feedback. Power uses the secret to protect his potential, be it what may, to increment its operative strength. Secret uses the power to achieve its aims and proposals. Social sciences seem to ignore the huge explanatory capacity of these two interrelated concepts, and even more, their powerful intervention in societies.

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Secret and power constitute two fundamental instances of the social world. Secret takes care of the concealment of things and of social processes. Secret is also a power device. Power is the social capacity to do, create, not doing and stop from doing. Secret and power get mutual feedback. Power uses the secret to protect his potential, be it what may, to increment its operative strength. Secret uses the power to achieve its aims and proposals. Social sciences seem to ignore the huge explanatory capacity of these two interrelated concepts, and even more, their powerful intervention in societies.

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This paper presents an explanatory typology of social relations which moves forward from those habitual and known by social disciplines, and labels the three types: actions - strategies - institutions . We set out to research characteristics, specificities, relevance of and differences between each type, as well as their interactions and interweaving, which make up the complexity of social relations. Moreover, mutual interdependence between the said social categories is established, which corresponds to a new conceptualization of power . This avoids traditional reductionism and rescues rarely taken-into-account capacities and determinations. The pair "social relations and power" makes up a necessary and indispensable framework to tackle the various problems of the social world.

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Wind power time series usually show complex dynamics mainly due to non-linearities related to the wind physics and the power transformation process in wind farms. This article provides an approach to the incorporation of observed local variables (wind speed and direction) to model some of these effects by means of statistical models. To this end, a benchmarking between two different families of varying-coefficient models (regime-switching and conditional parametric models) is carried out. The case of the offshore wind farm of Horns Rev in Denmark has been considered. The analysis is focused on one-step ahead forecasting and a time series resolution of 10 min. It has been found that the local wind direction contributes to model some features of the prevailing winds, such as the impact of the wind direction on the wind variability, whereas the non-linearities related to the power transformation process can be introduced by considering the local wind speed. In both cases, conditional parametric models showed a better performance than the one achieved by the regime-switching strategy. The results attained reinforce the idea that each explanatory variable allows the modelling of different underlying effects in the dynamics of wind power time series.

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La predicción de energía eólica ha desempeñado en la última década un papel fundamental en el aprovechamiento de este recurso renovable, ya que permite reducir el impacto que tiene la naturaleza fluctuante del viento en la actividad de diversos agentes implicados en su integración, tales como el operador del sistema o los agentes del mercado eléctrico. Los altos niveles de penetración eólica alcanzados recientemente por algunos países han puesto de manifiesto la necesidad de mejorar las predicciones durante eventos en los que se experimenta una variación importante de la potencia generada por un parque o un conjunto de ellos en un tiempo relativamente corto (del orden de unas pocas horas). Estos eventos, conocidos como rampas, no tienen una única causa, ya que pueden estar motivados por procesos meteorológicos que se dan en muy diferentes escalas espacio-temporales, desde el paso de grandes frentes en la macroescala a procesos convectivos locales como tormentas. Además, el propio proceso de conversión del viento en energía eléctrica juega un papel relevante en la ocurrencia de rampas debido, entre otros factores, a la relación no lineal que impone la curva de potencia del aerogenerador, la desalineación de la máquina con respecto al viento y la interacción aerodinámica entre aerogeneradores. En este trabajo se aborda la aplicación de modelos estadísticos a la predicción de rampas a muy corto plazo. Además, se investiga la relación de este tipo de eventos con procesos atmosféricos en la macroescala. Los modelos se emplean para generar predicciones de punto a partir del modelado estocástico de una serie temporal de potencia generada por un parque eólico. Los horizontes de predicción considerados van de una a seis horas. Como primer paso, se ha elaborado una metodología para caracterizar rampas en series temporales. La denominada función-rampa está basada en la transformada wavelet y proporciona un índice en cada paso temporal. Este índice caracteriza la intensidad de rampa en base a los gradientes de potencia experimentados en un rango determinado de escalas temporales. Se han implementado tres tipos de modelos predictivos de cara a evaluar el papel que juega la complejidad de un modelo en su desempeño: modelos lineales autorregresivos (AR), modelos de coeficientes variables (VCMs) y modelos basado en redes neuronales (ANNs). Los modelos se han entrenado en base a la minimización del error cuadrático medio y la configuración de cada uno de ellos se ha determinado mediante validación cruzada. De cara a analizar la contribución del estado macroescalar de la atmósfera en la predicción de rampas, se ha propuesto una metodología que permite extraer, a partir de las salidas de modelos meteorológicos, información relevante para explicar la ocurrencia de estos eventos. La metodología se basa en el análisis de componentes principales (PCA) para la síntesis de la datos de la atmósfera y en el uso de la información mutua (MI) para estimar la dependencia no lineal entre dos señales. Esta metodología se ha aplicado a datos de reanálisis generados con un modelo de circulación general (GCM) de cara a generar variables exógenas que posteriormente se han introducido en los modelos predictivos. Los casos de estudio considerados corresponden a dos parques eólicos ubicados en España. Los resultados muestran que el modelado de la serie de potencias permitió una mejora notable con respecto al modelo predictivo de referencia (la persistencia) y que al añadir información de la macroescala se obtuvieron mejoras adicionales del mismo orden. Estas mejoras resultaron mayores para el caso de rampas de bajada. Los resultados también indican distintos grados de conexión entre la macroescala y la ocurrencia de rampas en los dos parques considerados. Abstract One of the main drawbacks of wind energy is that it exhibits intermittent generation greatly depending on environmental conditions. Wind power forecasting has proven to be an effective tool for facilitating wind power integration from both the technical and the economical perspective. Indeed, system operators and energy traders benefit from the use of forecasting techniques, because the reduction of the inherent uncertainty of wind power allows them the adoption of optimal decisions. Wind power integration imposes new challenges as higher wind penetration levels are attained. Wind power ramp forecasting is an example of such a recent topic of interest. The term ramp makes reference to a large and rapid variation (1-4 hours) observed in the wind power output of a wind farm or portfolio. Ramp events can be motivated by a broad number of meteorological processes that occur at different time/spatial scales, from the passage of large-scale frontal systems to local processes such as thunderstorms and thermally-driven flows. Ramp events may also be conditioned by features related to the wind-to-power conversion process, such as yaw misalignment, the wind turbine shut-down and the aerodynamic interaction between wind turbines of a wind farm (wake effect). This work is devoted to wind power ramp forecasting, with special focus on the connection between the global scale and ramp events observed at the wind farm level. The framework of this study is the point-forecasting approach. Time series based models were implemented for very short-term prediction, this being characterised by prediction horizons up to six hours ahead. As a first step, a methodology to characterise ramps within a wind power time series was proposed. The so-called ramp function is based on the wavelet transform and it provides a continuous index related to the ramp intensity at each time step. The underlying idea is that ramps are characterised by high power output gradients evaluated under different time scales. A number of state-of-the-art time series based models were considered, namely linear autoregressive (AR) models, varying-coefficient models (VCMs) and artificial neural networks (ANNs). This allowed us to gain insights into how the complexity of the model contributes to the accuracy of the wind power time series modelling. The models were trained in base of a mean squared error criterion and the final set-up of each model was determined through cross-validation techniques. In order to investigate the contribution of the global scale into wind power ramp forecasting, a methodological proposal to identify features in atmospheric raw data that are relevant for explaining wind power ramp events was presented. The proposed methodology is based on two techniques: principal component analysis (PCA) for atmospheric data compression and mutual information (MI) for assessing non-linear dependence between variables. The methodology was applied to reanalysis data generated with a general circulation model (GCM). This allowed for the elaboration of explanatory variables meaningful for ramp forecasting that were utilized as exogenous variables by the forecasting models. The study covered two wind farms located in Spain. All the models outperformed the reference model (the persistence) during both ramp and non-ramp situations. Adding atmospheric information had a noticeable impact on the forecasting performance, specially during ramp-down events. Results also suggested different levels of connection between the ramp occurrence at the wind farm level and the global scale.

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DUE TO COPYRIGHT RESTRICTIONS ONLY AVAILABLE FOR CONSULTATION AT ASTON UNIVERSITY LIBRARY AND INFORMATION SERVICES WITH PRIOR ARRANGEMENT This study is about leadership in American Evangelical Churches, which as a sub-set of American Christianity, are growing, while American Christianity as a whole is in decline. As a result evangelicalism is quickly becoming the dominate iteration of American Christianity. It is anecdotal that well led churches grow while poorly led churches do not, yet no one has identified what leadership, in the evangelical church context, is. Researchers have investigated a number of aspects of church leadership (much of it without identifying whether or not the churches under investigation were evangelical or not) but no one has put forth a unified theory linking these aspects together. The purpose of this research is to address that gap and develop a theory that explains how evangelicals view leadership in their local churches. In this study of three churches, dissimilar in size and governance, a purely qualitative approach to data collection and analysis was employed. The study involved 60 interviews that sought points-of-view from top and mid-level leadership along with congregant followers. The study borrowed heavily from Glaser and Strauss (1967) Grounded Theory approach to data analysis. The results developed a theory which provides a unified explanation of how leadership actually works in the three evangelical churches. Several implications for practice are discussed as to the theory's usefulness as a method of leadership education and evaluation. An original discovery was found that an individual's incumbency within the organization was identified as a social power. Limitations to this research are the limitations generally imputed to purely qualitative research in that questions are raised about the theory's applicability to evangelical churches beyond the three studied. The suggestions for further research involve addressing those limitations

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OBJECTIVE: This in situ study evaluated the discriminatory power and reliability of methods of dental plaque quantification and the relationship between visual indices (VI) and fluorescence camera (FC) to detect plaque. MATERIAL AND METHODS: Six volunteers used palatal appliances with six bovine enamel blocks presenting different stages of plaque accumulation. The presence of plaque with and without disclosing was assessed using VI. Images were obtained with FC and digital camera in both conditions. The area covered by plaque was assessed. Examinations were done by two independent examiners. Data were analyzed by Kruskal-Wallis and Kappa tests to compare different conditions of samples and to assess the inter-examiner reproducibility. RESULTS: Some methods presented adequate reproducibility. The Turesky index and the assessment of area covered by disclosed plaque in the FC images presented the highest discriminatory powers. CONCLUSION: The Turesky index and images with FC with disclosing present good reliability and discriminatory power in quantifying dental plaque.

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This work deals with an improved plane frame formulation whose exact dynamic stiffness matrix (DSM) presents, uniquely, null determinant for the natural frequencies. In comparison with the classical DSM, the formulation herein presented has some major advantages: local mode shapes are preserved in the formulation so that, for any positive frequency, the DSM will never be ill-conditioned; in the absence of poles, it is possible to employ the secant method in order to have a more computationally efficient eigenvalue extraction procedure. Applying the procedure to the more general case of Timoshenko beams, we introduce a new technique, named ""power deflation"", that makes the secant method suitable for the transcendental nonlinear eigenvalue problems based on the improved DSM. In order to avoid overflow occurrences that can hinder the secant method iterations, limiting frequencies are formulated, with scaling also applied to the eigenvalue problem. Comparisons with results available in the literature demonstrate the strength of the proposed method. Computational efficiency is compared with solutions obtained both by FEM and by the Wittrick-Williams algorithm.

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Much of social science literature about South African cities fails to represent its complex spectrum of sexual practices and associated identities. The unintended effects of such representations are that a compulsory heterosexuality is naturalised in, and reiterative with, dominant constructions of blackness in townships. In this paper, we argue that the assertion of discreet lesbian and gay identities in black townships of a South African city such as Cape Town is influenced by the historical racial and socio-economic divides that have marked urban landscape. In their efforts to recoup a positive sense of gendered personhood, residents have constructed a moral economy anchored in reproductive heterosexuality. We draw upon ethnographic data to show how sexual minorities live their lives vicariously in spaces they have prised open within the extant sex/gender binary. They are able to assert the identities of moffie and man-vrou (mannish woman) without threatening the dominant ideology of heterosexuality.

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We describe the design and implementation of a high voltage pulse power supply (pulser) that supports the operation of a repetitively pulsed filtered vacuum arc plasma deposition facility in plasma immersion ion implantation and deposition (Mepiiid) mode. Negative pulses (micropulses) of up to 20 kV in magnitude and 20 A peak current are provided in gated pulse packets (macropulses) over a broad range of possible pulse width and duty cycle. Application of the system consisting of filtered vacuum arc and high voltage pulser is demonstrated by forming diamond-like carbon (DLC) thin films with and without substrate bias provided by the pulser. Significantly enhanced film/substrate adhesion is observed when the pulser is used to induce interface mixing between the DLC film and the underlying Si substrate. (C) 2010 American Institute of Physics. [doi:10.1063/1.3518969]

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At the 2008 Summer Olympics in Beijing, Usain Bolt broke the world record for the 100 m sprint. Just one year later, at the 2009 World Championships in Athletics in Berlin he broke it again. A few months after Beijing, Eriksen [Am. J. Phys. 77, 224-228 (2009)] studied Bolt's performance and predicted that Bolt could have run about one-tenth of a second faster, which was confirmed in Berlin. In this paper we extend the analysis of Eriksen to model Bolt's velocity time dependence for the Beijing 2008 and Berlin 2009 records. We deduce the maximum force, the maximum power, and the total mechanical energy produced by Bolt in both races. Surprisingly, we conclude that all of these values were smaller in 2009 than in 2008.

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Rheological properties of adherent cells are essential for their physiological functions, and microrheological measurements on living cells have shown that their viscoelastic responses follow a weak power law over a wide range of time scales. This power law is also influenced by mechanical prestress borne by the cytoskeleton, suggesting that cytoskeletal prestress determines the cell's viscoelasticity, but the biophysical origins of this behavior are largely unknown. We have recently developed a stochastic two-dimensional model of an elastically joined chain that links the power-law rheology to the prestress. Here we use a similar approach to study the creep response of a prestressed three-dimensional elastically jointed chain as a viscoelastic model of semiflexible polymers that comprise the prestressed cytoskeletal lattice. Using a Monte Carlo based algorithm, we show that numerical simulations of the chain's creep behavior closely correspond to the behavior observed experimentally in living cells. The power-law creep behavior results from a finite-speed propagation of free energy from the chain's end points toward the center of the chain in response to an externally applied stretching force. The property that links the power law to the prestress is the chain's stiffening with increasing prestress, which originates from entropic and enthalpic contributions. These results indicate that the essential features of cellular rheology can be explained by the viscoelastic behaviors of individual semiflexible polymers of the cytoskeleton.

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Gaussianity and statistical isotropy of the Universe are modern cosmology's minimal set of hypotheses. In this work we introduce a new statistical test to detect observational deviations from this minimal set. By defining the temperature correlation function over the whole celestial sphere, we are able to independently quantify both angular and planar dependence (modulations) of the CMB temperature power spectrum over different slices of this sphere. Given that planar dependence leads to further modulations of the usual angular power spectrum C(l), this test can potentially reveal richer structures in the morphology of the primordial temperature field. We have also constructed an unbiased estimator for this angular-planar power spectrum which naturally generalizes the estimator for the usual C(l)'s. With the help of a chi-square analysis, we have used this estimator to search for observational deviations of statistical isotropy in WMAP's 5 year release data set (ILC5), where we found only slight anomalies on the angular scales l = 7 and l = 8. Since this angular-planar statistic is model-independent, it is ideal to employ in searches of statistical anisotropy (e.g., contaminations from the galactic plane) and to characterize non-Gaussianities.

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The purpose of our study was to compare the effects of 8-week progressive strength and power training regimens on strength gains and muscle plasticity [muscle fiber hypertrophy and phenotype shift, mammalian target of rapamycin (mTOR), regulatory-associated protein of mTOR (RAPTOR), rapamycin-insensitive companion of m-TOR (RICTOR), calcineurin and calcipressin gene expression]. Twenty-nine physically active subjects were divided into three groups: strength training (ST), power training (PT) and control (C). Squat 1 RM and muscle biopsies were obtained before and after the training period. Strength increased similarly for both ST and PT groups (P < 0.001). Fiber types I, IIa and IIb presented hypertrophy main time effect (P < 0.05). Only type IIb percentage decreased from pre- to post-test (main time effect, P < 0.05). mTOR and RICTOR mRNA expression increased similarly from pre- to post-test (P < 0.01). RAPTOR increased after training for both groups (P < 0.0001), but to a greater extent in the ST (P < 0.001) than in the PT group. 4EBP-1 decreased after training when the ST and PT groups were pooled (P < 0.05). Calcineurin levels did not change after training, while calcipressin increased similarly from pre- to post-test (P < 0.01). In conclusion, our data indicate that these training regimens produce similar performance improvements; however, there was a trend toward greater hypertrophy-related gene expression and muscle fiber hypertrophy in the ST group.