Exchange Rate Predictability in a Changing World

An expanding literature articulates the view that Taylor rules are helpful in predicting exchange rates. In a changing world however, Taylor rule parameters may be subject to structural instabilities, for example during the Global Financial Crisis. This paper forecasts exchange rates using such Taylor rules with Time Varying Parameters (TVP) estimated by Bayesian methods. In core out-of-sample results, we improve upon a random walk benchmark for at least half, and for as many as eight out of ten, of the currencies considered. This contrasts with a constant parameter Taylor rule model that yields a more limited improvement upon the benchmark. In further results, Purchasing Power Parity and Uncovered Interest Rate Parity TVP models beat a random walk benchmark, implying our methods have some generality in exchange rate prediction.

Measuring the Euro-Dollar Permanent Equilibrium Exchange Rate using the Unobserved Components Model

This paper employs an unobserved component model that incorporates a set of economic fundamentals to obtain the Euro-Dollar permanent equilibrium exchange rates (PEER) for the period 1975Q1 to 2008Q4. The results show that for most of the sample period, the Euro-Dollar exchange rate closely followed the values implied by the PEER. The only significant deviations from the PEER occurred in the years immediately before and after the introduction of the single European currency. The forecasting exercise shows that incorporating economic fundamentals provides a better long-run exchange rate forecasting performance than a random walk process.

On the Sources of Uncertainty in Exchange Rate Predictability

We analyse the role of time-variation in coefficients and other sources of uncertainty in exchange rate forecasting regressions. Our techniques incorporate the notion that the relevant set of predictors and their corresponding weights, change over time. We find that predictive models which allow for sudden rather than smooth, changes in coefficients significantly beat the random walk benchmark in out-of-sample forecasting exercise. Using innovative variance decomposition scheme, we identify uncertainty in coefficients' estimation and uncertainty about the precise degree of coefficients' variability, as the main factors hindering models' forecasting performance. The uncertainty regarding the choice of the predictor is small.

Transaction Costs and Institutions: Investments in Exchange

This paper proposes a simple model for understanding transaction costs for their composition, size and policy implications. We distinguish between investments in institutions that facilitate exchange and the cost of conducting exchange itself. Institutional quality and market size are determined by the decisions of risk averse agents and conditions are discussed under which the efficient allocation may be decentralized. We highlight a number of differences with models where transaction costs are exogenous, including the implications for taxation and measurement issues.

Private Governance of Financial Markets: the US Regulatory Regime on Hedge Funds

The article investigates the private governance of financial markets by looking at the evolution of the regulatory debate on hedge funds in the US market. It starts from the premise that the privatization of regulation is always the result of a political decision and analyzes how this decision came about and was implemented in the case of hedge funds. The starting point is the failure of two initiatives on hedge funds that US regulators launched between 1999 an 2004, which the analysis explains by elaborating the concept of self-capture. Facing a trade off between the need to tackle publicly demonized issues and the difficulty of monitoring increasingly sophisticated and powerful private markets, regulators purposefully designed initiatives that were not meant to succeed, that is, they “self-captured” their own activity. By formulating initiatives that were inherently flawed, regulators saved their public role and at the same time paved the way for the privatization of hedge fund regulation. This explanation identifies a link between the failure of public initiatives and the success of private ones. It illustrates a specific case of formation of private authority in financial markets that points to a more general practice emerging in the regulation of finance.

Analyzing aggregate real exchange rate persistence through the lens of sectoral data

In this paper we analyze the persistence of aggregate real exchange rates (RERs) for a group of EU-15 countries by using sectoral data. The tight relation between aggregate and sectoral persistence recently investigated by Mayoral (2008) allows us to decompose aggregate RER persistence into the persistence of its different subcomponents. We show that the distribution of sectoral persistence is highly heterogeneous and very skewed to the right, and that a limited number of sectors are responsible for the high levels of persistence observed at the aggregate level. We use quantile regression to investigate whether the traditional theories proposed to account for the slow reversion to parity (lack of arbitrage due to nontradibilities or imperfect competition and price stickiness) are able to explain the behavior of the upper quantiles of sectoral persistence. We conclude that pricing to market in the intermediate goods sector together with price stickiness have more explanatory power than variables related to the tradability of the goods or their inputs.

Energetics of RecA-mediated recombination reactions. Without ATP hydrolysis RecA can mediate polar strand exchange but is unable to recycle.

We demonstrate that the step of DNA strand exchange during RecA-mediated recombination reaction can occur equally efficiently in the presence or absence of ATP hydrolysis. The polarity of strand exchange is the same when instead of ATP its non-hydrolyzable analog adenosine-5'-O-(3-thiotriphosphate) is used. We show that the ATP dependence of recombination reaction is limited to the post-exchange stages of the reactions. The low DNA affinity state of RecA protomers, induced after ATP hydrolysis, is necessary for the dissociation of RecA-DNA complexes at the end of the reaction. This dissociation of RecA from DNA is necessary for the release of recombinant DNA molecules from the complexes formed with RecA and for the recycling of RecA protomers for another round of the recombination reaction.

Protein interaction data curation: the International Molecular Exchange (IMEx) consortium.

The International Molecular Exchange (IMEx) consortium is an international collaboration between major public interaction data providers to share literature-curation efforts and make a nonredundant set of protein interactions available in a single search interface on a common website (http://www.imexconsortium.org/). Common curation rules have been developed, and a central registry is used to manage the selection of articles to enter into the dataset. We discuss the advantages of such a service to the user, our quality-control measures and our data-distribution practices.

On problems of calculating energy expenditure and substrate utilization from respiratory exchange data.

Indirect calorimetry based on respiratory exchange measurement has been successfully used from the beginning of the century to obtain an estimate of heat production (energy expenditure) in human subjects and animals. The errors inherent to this classical technique can stem from various sources: 1) model of calculation and assumptions, 2) calorimetric factors used, 3) technical factors and 4) human factors. The physiological and biochemical factors influencing the interpretation of calorimetric data include a change in the size of the bicarbonate and urea pools and the accumulation or loss (via breath, urine or sweat) of intermediary metabolites (gluconeogenesis, ketogenesis). More recently, respiratory gas exchange data have been used to estimate substrate utilization rates in various physiological and metabolic situations (fasting, post-prandial state, etc.). It should be recalled that indirect calorimetry provides an index of overall substrate disappearance rates. This is incorrectly assumed to be equivalent to substrate "oxidation" rates. Unfortunately, there is no adequate golden standard to validate whole body substrate "oxidation" rates, and this contrasts to the "validation" of heat production by indirect calorimetry, through use of direct calorimetry under strict thermal equilibrium conditions. Tracer techniques using stable (or radioactive) isotopes, represent an independent way of assessing substrate utilization rates. When carbohydrate metabolism is measured with both techniques, indirect calorimetry generally provides consistent glucose "oxidation" rates as compared to isotopic tracers, but only when certain metabolic processes (such as gluconeogenesis and lipogenesis) are minimal or / and when the respiratory quotients are not at the extreme of the physiological range. However, it is believed that the tracer techniques underestimate true glucose "oxidation" rates due to the failure to account for glycogenolysis in the tissue storing glucose, since this escapes the systemic circulation. A major advantage of isotopic techniques is that they are able to estimate (given certain assumptions) various metabolic processes (such as gluconeogenesis) in a noninvasive way. Furthermore when, in addition to the 3 macronutrients, a fourth substrate is administered (such as ethanol), isotopic quantification of substrate "oxidation" allows one to eliminate the inherent assumptions made by indirect calorimetry. In conclusion, isotopic tracers techniques and indirect calorimetry should be considered as complementary techniques, in particular since the tracer techniques require the measurement of carbon dioxide production obtained by indirect calorimetry. However, it should be kept in mind that the assessment of substrate oxidation by indirect calorimetry may involve large errors in particular over a short period of time. By indirect calorimetry, energy expenditure (heat production) is calculated with substantially less error than substrate oxidation rates.

The mzTab Data Exchange Format: Communicating Mass-spectrometry-based Proteomics and Metabolomics Experimental Results to a Wider Audience.

The HUPO Proteomics Standards Initiative has developed several standardized data formats to facilitate data sharing in mass spectrometry (MS)-based proteomics. These allow researchers to report their complete results in a unified way. However, at present, there is no format to describe the final qualitative and quantitative results for proteomics and metabolomics experiments in a simple tabular format. Many downstream analysis use cases are only concerned with the final results of an experiment and require an easily accessible format, compatible with tools such as Microsoft Excel or R. We developed the mzTab file format for MS-based proteomics and metabolomics results to meet this need. mzTab is intended as a lightweight supplement to the existing standard XML-based file formats (mzML, mzIdentML, mzQuantML), providing a comprehensive summary, similar in concept to the supplemental material of a scientific publication. mzTab files can contain protein, peptide, and small molecule identifications together with experimental metadata and basic quantitative information. The format is not intended to store the complete experimental evidence but provides mechanisms to report results at different levels of detail. These range from a simple summary of the final results to a representation of the results including the experimental design. This format is ideally suited to make MS-based proteomics and metabolomics results available to a wider biological community outside the field of MS. Several software tools for proteomics and metabolomics have already adapted the format as an output format. The comprehensive mzTab specification document and extensive additional documentation can be found online.

Genetic diversity and genetic exchange in Trypanosoma cruzi: dual drug-resistant "progeny" from episomal transformants

Extensive characterisation of Trypanosoma cruzi by isoenzyme phenotypes has separated the species into three principal zymodeme groups, Z1, Z2 and Z3, and into many individual zymodemes. There is marked diversity within Z2. A strong correlation has been demonstrated between the strain clusters determined by isoenzymes and those obtained using random amplified polymorphic DNA (RAPD) profiles. Polymorphisms in ribosomal RNA genes, in mini-exon genes, and microsatellite fingerprinting indicate the presence of at least two principal T. cruzi genetic lineages. Lineage 1 appears to correspond with Z2 and lineage 2 with Z1. Z1 (lineage 2) is associated with Didelphis. Z2 (lineage 1) may be associated with a primate host. Departures from Hardy-Weinberg equilibrium and linkage disequilibrium indicate that propagation of T. cruzi is predominantly clonal. Nevertheless, two studies show putative homozygotes and heterozygotes circulating sympatrically: the allozyme frequencies for phosphoglucomutase, and hybrid RAPD profiles suggest that genetic exchange may be a current phenomenon in some T. cruzi transmission cycles. We were able to isolate dual drug-resistant T. cruzi biological clones following copassage of putative parents carrying single episomal drug-resistant markers. A multiplex PCR confirmed that dual drug-resistant clones carried both episomal plasmids. Preliminary karyotype analysis suggests that recombination may not be confined to the extranuclear genome.

Address by Michea¡l Martin to the Conference - Legislating for Tobacco Free Society

Thank you Chairman I would like to extend a warm welcome to our keynote speakers, David Byrne of the European Commission, Derek Yach from the World Health Organisation, and Paul Quinn representing Congressman Marty Meehan who sends his apologies. When we include the speakers who will address later sessions, this is, undoubtedly, one of the strongest teams that have been assembled on tobacco control in Europe. The very strength of the team underlines what I see as a shift – a very necessary shift – in the way we perceive the tobacco issue. For the last twenty years, we have lived out a paradox. It isn´t a social side issue. I make no apology for the bluntness of what I´m saying, and will come back, a little later, to the radicalism I believe we need to bring – nationally – to this issue. For starters, though, I want to lay it on the line that what we´re talking about is an epidemic as deadly as any suffered by human kind throughout the centuries. Slower than some of those epidemics in its lethal action, perhaps. But an epidemic, nonetheless. According to the World Health Organisation tobacco accounted for just over 3 million annual deaths in 1990, rising to 4.023 million annual deaths in 1998. The numbers of deaths due to tobacco will rise to 8.4 million in 2020 and reach roughly 10 million annually by 2030. This is quite simply ghastly. Tobacco kills. It kills in many different ways. It kills increasing numbers of women. It does its damage directly and indirectly. For children, much of the damage comes from smoking by adults where children live, study, play and work. The very least we should be able to offer every child is breathable air. Air that doesn´t do them damage. We´re now seeing a global public health response to the tobacco epidemic. The Tobacco Free Initiative launched by the World Health Organisation was matched by significant tobacco control initiatives throughout the world. During this conference we will hear about the experiences our speakers had in driving these initiatives. This Tobacco Free Initiative poses unique challenges to our legal frameworks at both national and international levels; in particular it raises challenges about the legal context in which tobacco products are traded and asks questions about the impact of commercial speech especially on children, and the extent of the limitations that should be imposed on it. Politicians, supported by economists and lawyers as well as the medical profession, must continue to explore and develop this context to find innovative ways to wrap public health considerations around the trade in tobacco products – very tightly. We also have the right to demand a totally new paradigm from the tobacco industry. Bluntly, the tobacco industry plays the PR game at its cynical worst. The industry sells its products without regard to the harm these products cause. At the same time, to gain social acceptance, it gives donations, endowments and patronage to high profile events and people. Not good enough. This model of behaviour is no longer acceptable in a modern society. We need one where the industry integrates social responsibility and accountability into its day-to-day activities. We have waited for this change in behaviour from the tobacco industry for many decades. Unfortunately the documents disclosed during litigation in the USA and from other sources make very depressing reading; it is clear from them that any trust society placed in the tobacco industry in the past to address the health problems associated with its products was misplaced. This industry appears to lack the necessary leadership to guide it towards just and responsible action. Instead, it chooses evasion, deception and at times illegal activity to protect its profits at any price and to avoid its responsibilities to society and its customers. It has engaged in elaborate ´spin´ to generate political tolerance, scientific uncertainty and public acceptance of its products. Legislators must act now. I see no reason why the global community should continue to wait. Effective legal controls must be laid on this errant industry. We should also keep these controls under review at regular intervals and if they are failing to achieve the desired outcomes we should be prepared to amend them. In Ireland, as Minister for Health and Children, I launched a comprehensive tobacco control policy entitled “Towards a Tobacco Free Society“. OTT?Excessive?Unrealistic? On the contrary – I believe it to be imperative and inevitable. I honestly hold that, given the range of fatal diseases caused by tobacco use we have little alternative but to pursue the clear objective of creating a tobacco free society. Aiming at a tobacco free society means ensuring public and political opinion are properly informed. It requires help to be given to smokers to break the addiction. It demands that people are protected against environmental tobacco smoke and children are protected from any inducement to experiment with this product. Over the past year we have implemented a number of measures which will support these objectives; we have established an independent Office of Tobacco Control, we have introduced free nicotine replacement therapy for low-income earners, we have extended our existing prohibitions on tobacco advertising to the print media with some minor derogations for international publications. We have raised the legal age at which a person can be sold tobacco products to eighteen years. We have invested substantially more funds in health promotion activities and we have mounted sustained information campaigns. We have engaged in sponsorship arrangements, which are new and innovative for public bodies. I have provided health boards with additional resources to let them mount a sustained inspection and enforcement service. Health boards will engage new Directors of Tobacco Control responsible for coordinating each health board´s response and for liasing with the Tobacco Control Agency I set up earlier this year. Most recently, I have published a comprehensive Bill – The Public Health (Tobacco) Bill, 2001. This Bill will, among other things, end all forms of product display and in-store advertising and will require all retailers to register with the new Tobacco Control Agency. Ten packs of cigarettes will be banned and transparent and independent testing procedures of tobacco products will be introduced. Enforcement officers will be given all the necessary powers to ensure there is full compliance with the law. On smoking in public places we will extend the existing areas covered and it is proposed that I, as Minister for Health and Children, will have the powers to introduce further prohibitions in public places such as pubs and the work place. I will also provide for the establishment of a Tobacco Free Council to advise and assist on an ongoing basis. I believe the measures already introduced and those additional ones proposed in the Bill have widespread community support. In fact, you´re going to hear a detailed presentation from the MRBI which will amply illustrate the extent of this support. The great thing is that the support comes from smokers and non-smokers alike. Bottom line, Ladies and Gentlemen, is that we are at a watershed. As a society (if you´ll allow me to play with a popular phrase) we´ve realised it´s time to ´wake up and smell the cigarettes.´ Smell them. See them for what they are. And get real about destroying their hold on our people. The MRBI survey makes it clear that the single strongest weapon we have when it comes to preventing the habit among young people is price. Simple as that. Price. Up to now, the fear of inflation has been a real impediment to increasing taxes on tobacco. It sounds a serious, logical argument. Until you take it out and look at it a little more closely. Weigh it, as it were, in two hands. I believe – and I believe this with a great passion – that we must take cigarettes out of the equation we use when awarding wage increases. I am calling on IBEC and ICTU, on employers and trade unions alike, to move away from any kind of tolerance of a trade that is killing our citizens. At one point in industrial history, cigarettes were a staple of the workingman´s life. So it was legitimate to include them in the ´basket´ of goods that goes to make up the Consumer Price Index. It isn´t legitimate to include them any more. Today, I´m saying that society collectively must take the step to remove cigarettes from the basket of normality, from the list of elements which constitute necessary consumer spending. I´m saying: “We can no longer delude ourselves. We must exclude cigarettes from the considerations we address in central wage bargaining. We must price cigarettes out of the reach of the children those cigarettes will kill.” Right now, in the monthly Central Statistics Office reports on consumer spending, the figures include cigarettes. But – right down at the bottom of the page – there´s another figure. Calculated without including cigarettes. I believe that if we continue to use the first figure as our constant measure, it will be an indictment of us as legislators, as advocates for working people, as public health professionals. If, on the other hand, we move to the use of the second figure, we will be sending out a message of startling clarity to the nation. We will be saying “We don´t count an addictive, killer drug as part of normal consumer spending.” Taking cigarettes out of the basket used to determine the Consumer Price Index will take away the inflation argument. It will not be easy, in its implications for the social partners. But it is morally inescapable. We must do it. Because it will help us stop the killer that is tobacco. If we can do it, we will give so much extra strength to health educators and the new Tobacco Control Association. This new organisation of young people who already have branches in over fifteen counties, is represented here today. The young adults who make up its membership are well placed to advise children of the dangers of tobacco addiction in a way that older generations cannot. It would strengthen their hand if cigarettes move – in price terms – out of the easy reach of our children Finally, I would like to commend so many public health advocates who have shown professional and indeed personal courage in their commitment to this critical public health issue down through the years. We need you to continue to challenge and confront this grave public health problem and to repudiate the questionable science of the tobacco industry. The Research Institute for a Tobacco Free Society represents a new and dynamic form of partnership between government and civil society. It will provide an effective platform to engage and mobilise the many different professional and academic skills necessary to guide and challenge us. I wish the conference every success.

Annual Report of the Needle & Syringe Exchange Scheme for the period 1st April 2013 to 31st March 2014.

This report summarises data that is collected on the operation of the Northern Ireland Needle and Syringe Exchange Scheme (NSES). It relates to the twelve-month period between 1st April 2013 and 31st March 2014. The anonymised data is collected by the 14 pharmacies and 1 Trust-based service that participate in the Northern Ireland Needle and Syringe Exchange Scheme (NSES) which was introduced in April 2001.

What Price Salvation? The Exchange of Salvation goods between India and the West

Does Weber's notion of salvation goods, along with the connected one of the religious market, apply to the modern history of yoga? The case study chosen here (the yoga of Pattabhi Jois) clearly shows that these notions highlight many aspects of the expansion of yoga into a global market product. However, the notion of salvation goods resists the new hermeneutical situation of encounter and has to be adapted to the present situation of religious "patchwork". The notion of religious market lacks depth to describe the various understandings and appropriations of yoga in precise historical situations. Other aspects of the current global status of yoga may be highlighted by applying the concept of pilgrimage. La notion de bien de salut que nous lègue Max Weber et la notion de marché religieux qui en découle peuvent-elles s'appliquer à l'histoire moderne du yoga? L'étude de cas que nous consacrons au yoga de Pattabhi Jois montre que ces notions éclairent bien certains aspects de l'expansion du yoga en tant que produit d'un marché globalisé. Cependant la notion de bien de salut résiste à une réflexion de type herméneutique sur les processus de rencontres et doit être adaptée à la situation contemporaine, ou` les religions se présentent comme des ensembles composites. La notion de marché religieux ne permet pas d'expliquer les diverses compréhensions et appropriations du yoga dans des situations historiques précises. D'autres aspects de la situation du yoga sont mieux explicités si on prend le concept de pèlerinage comme point de référence.

An Ontology for Open Rubric Exchange on the Web

While the Internet has given educators access to a steady supply of Open Educational Resources, the educational rubrics commonly shared on the Web are generally in the form of static, non-semantic presentational documents or in the proprietary data structures of commercial content and learning management systems.With the advent of Semantic Web Standards, producers of online resources have a new framework to support the open exchange of software-readable datasets. Despite these advances, the state of the art of digital representation of rubrics as sharable documents has not progressed.This paper proposes an ontological model for digital rubrics. This model is built upon the Semantic Web Standards of the World Wide Web Consortium (W3C), principally the Resource Description Framework (RDF) and Web Ontology Language (OWL).