Improved seasonal prediction of the hot summer of 2003 over Europe through better representation of uncertainty in the land surface

Methods to explicitly represent uncertainties in weather and climate models have been developed and refined over the past decade, and have reduced biases and improved forecast skill when implemented in the atmospheric component of models. These methods have not yet been applied to the land surface component of models. Since the land surface is strongly coupled to the atmospheric state at certain times and in certain places (such as the European summer of 2003), improvements in the representation of land surface uncertainty may potentially lead to improvements in atmospheric forecasts for such events. Here we analyse seasonal retrospective forecasts for 1981–2012 performed with the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts’ (ECMWF) coupled ensemble forecast model. We consider two methods of incorporating uncertainty into the land surface model (H-TESSEL): stochastic perturbation of tendencies, and static perturbation of key soil parameters. We find that the perturbed parameter approach considerably improves the forecast of extreme air temperature for summer 2003, through better representation of negative soil moisture anomalies and upward sensible heat flux. Averaged across all the reforecasts the perturbed parameter experiment shows relatively little impact on the mean bias, suggesting perturbations of at least this magnitude can be applied to the land surface without any degradation of model climate. There is also little impact on skill averaged across all reforecasts and some evidence of overdispersion for soil moisture. The stochastic tendency experiments show a large overdispersion for the soil temperature fields, indicating that the perturbation here is too strong. There is also some indication that the forecast of the 2003 warm event is improved for the stochastic experiments, however the improvement is not as large as observed for the perturbed parameter experiment.

Children’s and Adults’ Processing of Anomaly and Implausibility during Reading: Evidence from Eye Movements

The eye movements of 24 children and 24 adults were monitored to compare how they read sentences containing plausible, implausible, and anomalous thematic relations. In the implausible condition the incongruity occurred due to the incompatibility of two objects involved in the event denoted by the main verb. In the anomalous condition the direct object of the verb was not a possible verb argument. Adults exhibited immediate disruption with the anomalous sentences as compared to the implausible sentences as indexed by longer gaze durations on the target word. Children exhibited the same pattern of effects as adults as far as the anomalous sentences were concerned, but exhibited delayed effects of implausibility. These data indicate that while children and adults are alike in their basic thematic assignment processes during reading, children may be delayed in the efficiency with which they are able to integrate pragmatic and real world knowledge into their discourse representation.

Are sulfurous soil amendments (S0, Fe(II)SO4, Fe(III)SO4) an effective tool in the restoration of heathland and acidic grassland after four decades of rock phosphate Fertilization?

This paper deals with the complex issue of reversing long-term improvements of fertility in soils derived from heathlands and acidic grasslands using sulfur-based amendments. The experiment was conducted on a former heathland and acid grassland in the U.K. that was heavily fertilized and limed with rock phosphate, chalk, and marl. The experimental work had three aims. First, to determine whether sulfurous soil amendments are able to lower pH to a level suitable for heathland and acidic grassland re-creation (approximately 3 pH units). Second, to determine what effect the soil amendments have on the available pool of some basic cations and some potentially toxic acidic cations that may affect the plant community. Third, to determine whether the addition of Fe to the soil system would sequester PO4− ions that might be liberated from rock phosphate by the experimental treatments. The application of S0 and Fe(II)SO4− to the soil was able to reduce pH. However, only the highest S0 treatment (2,000 kg/ha S) lowered pH sufficiently for heathland restoration purposes but effectively so. Where pH was lowered, basic cations were lost from the exchangeable pool and replaced by acidic cations. Where Fe was added to the soil, there was no evidence of PO4− sequestration from soil test data (Olsen P), but sequestration was apparent because of lower foliar P in the grass sward. The ability of the forb Rumex acetosella to apparently detoxify Al3+, prevalent in acidified soils, appeared to give it a competitive advantage over other less tolerant species. We would anticipate further changes in plant community structure through time, driven by Al3+ toxicity, leading to the competitive exclusion of less tolerant species. This, we suggest, is a key abiotic driver in the restoration of biotic (acidic plant) communities.

Can milk proteins be a useful tool in the management of cardiometabolic health? An updated review of human intervention trials

The prevalence of cardiometabolic diseases is a significant public health burden worldwide. Emerging evidence supports the inverse association between greater dairy consumption and reduced risk of cardiometabolic diseases. Dairy proteins may have in important role in the favourable impact of dairy on human health such as blood pressure (BP) control, blood lipid and glucose control. The purpose of this review is to update and critically evaluate the evidence on the impacts of casein and whey protein in relation to metabolic function. Evidence from acute clinical studies assessing postprandial responses to milk protein ingestion suggests benefits on vascular function independent of BP, as well as improvement in glycaemic homeostasis. Chronic interventions have been less conclusive, with some showing benefits and others indicating a lack of improvement in vascular function. During chronic consumption BP appears to be lowered and both dyslipidaemia and hyperglacaemia seems to be controlled. Limited number of trials investigated the effects of dairy proteins on oxidative stress and inflammation. The beneficial changes in cardiometabolic homeostasis are likely mediated through improvements in insulin resistance, however to gain more detailed understanding on the underlying mechanism of milk proteins warrants further research. The incorporation of meals enriched with dairy protein in the habitual diet may result in the beneficial effects on cardiometabolic health. Nevertheless, future well-designed, controlled studies are needed to investigate the relative effects of both casein and whey protein on BP, vascular function, glucose homeostasis and inflammation.

Cross-entropy optimizer: a new tool to study precession in astrophysical jets

Evidence of jet precession in many galactic and extragalactic sources has been reported in the literature. Much of this evidence is based on studies of the kinematics of the jet knots, which depends on the correct identification of the components to determine their respective proper motions and position angles on the plane of the sky. Identification problems related to fitting procedures, as well as observations poorly sampled in time, may influence the follow-up of the components in time, which consequently might contribute to a misinterpretation of the data. In order to deal with these limitations, we introduce a very powerful statistical tool to analyse jet precession: the cross-entropy method for continuous multi-extremal optimization. Only based on the raw data of the jet components (right ascension and declination offsets from the core), the cross-entropy method searches for the precession model parameters that better represent the data. In this work we present a large number of tests to validate this technique, using synthetic precessing jets built from a given set of precession parameters. With the aim of recovering these parameters, we applied the cross-entropy method to our precession model, varying exhaustively the quantities associated with the method. Our results have shown that even in the most challenging tests, the cross-entropy method was able to find the correct parameters within a 1 per cent level. Even for a non-precessing jet, our optimization method could point out successfully the lack of precession.

Neoproterozoic glacial dynamics revealed by provenance of diamictites of the Bebedouro Formation, Sao Francisco Craton, Central Eastern Brazil

One of the main questions on Neoproterozoic geology regards the extent and dynamics of the glacial systems that are recorded in all continents. We present evidence for short transport distances and localized sediment sources for the Bebedouro Formation, which records Neoproterozoic glaciomarine sedimentation in the central-eastern Sao Francisco Craton (SFC), Brazil. New data are presented on clast composition, based on point counting in thin section and SHRIMP dating of pebbles and detrital zircon. Cluster analysis of clast compositional data revealed a pronounced spatial variability of clast composition on diamictite indicating the presence of individual glaciers or ice streams feeding the basin. Detrital zircon ages reveal distinct populations of Archean and Palaeoproterozoic age. The youngest detrital zircon dated at 874 +/- 9 Ma constrains the maximum depositional age of these diamictites. We interpret the provenance of the glacial diamictites to be restricted to sources inside the SFC, suggesting deposition in an environment similar to ice streams from modern, high latitude glaciers.

Metabolic oxidative stress elicited by the copper(II) complex [Cu(isaepy)(2)] triggers apoptosis in SH-SY5Y cells through the induction of the AMP-activated protein kinase/p38(MAPK)/p53 signalling axis: evidence for a combined use with 3-bromopyruvate in neuroblastoma treatment

We have demonstrated previously that the complex bis[(2-oxindol-3-ylimino)-2-(2-aminoethyl)pyridine-N,N`]copper(II), named [Cu(isaepy)(2)], induces AMPK (AMP-activated protein kinase)-dependent/p53-mediated apoptosis in tumour cells by targeting mitochondria. In the present study, we found that p38(MAPK) (p38 mitogen-activated protein kinase) is the molecular link in the phosphorylation cascade connecting AMPK to p53. Transfection of SH-SY5Y cells with a dominant-negative mutant of AMPK resulted in a decrease in apoptosis and a significant reduction in phospho-active p38(MAPK) and p53. Similarly, reverse genetics of p38(MAPK) yielded a reduction in p53 and a decrease in the extent of apoptosis, confirming an exclusive hierarchy of activation that proceeds via AMPK/p38(MAPK)/p53. Fuel supplies counteracted [Cu(isaepy)(2)]-induced apoptosis and AMPK/p38(MAPK)/p53 activation, with glucose being the most effective, suggesting a role for energetic imbalance in [Cu(isaepy)(2)] toxicity. Co-administration of 3BrPA (3-bromopyruvate), a well-known inhibitor of glycolysis, and succinate dehydrogenase, enhanced apoptosis and AMPK/p38(MAPK)/p53 signalling pathway activation. Under these conditions, no toxic effect was observed in SOD (superoxide dismutase)-overexpressing SH-SY5Y cells or in PCNs (primary cortical neurons), which are, conversely, sensitized to the combined treatment with [Cu(isaepy)(2)] and 3BrPA only if grown in low-glucose medium or incubated with the glucose-6-phosphate dehydrogenase inhibitor dehydroepiandrosterone. Overall, the results suggest that NADPH deriving from the pentose phosphate pathway contributes to PCN resistance to [Cu(isaepy)(2)] toxicity and propose its employment in combination with 3BrPA as possible tool for cancer treatment.

Validering av Alberta Context Tool (ACT) för bruk inom svensk kommunal äldrevård : Ett verktyg för implementering av evidensbaserad vård

The aim of this study was to conduct an instrument test of the Canadian questionnaire Alberta Context Tool (ACT) version Long-Term care for Swedish conditions. ACT is designed in order to measure the context in the care environment and different behaviours related to the changes in clinical practice. In total, 159 Licensed Practical Nurses (LPNs) and Registered Nurses (RNs) within municipality care of the elderly were included in the survey. The test included the instrument's reliability and face validity.The reliability test was implemented through calculation of Cronbach´s Alpha, and showed internal consistency for five of the scales of the ACT-instrument with Cronbach´s Alpha values ranging between 0,728 and 0,873. However, three dimensions got lower values (0,558 - 0,683).The analysis was carried out with content analysis and carried out for LPNs and RNs in separate groups. The majority of LPNs expressed that it was easy to respond to the questions (56%), while nine percent considered it as difficult. Eleven comments were given about questions that were perceived to be unclear, complicated or contained difficult words. In the RN group only 30 percent considered that the questions were easy to respond to. One third of the RNs considered that part of the questions were unclear, and six RNs expressed also which questions they experienced as unclear. In general, the questions in the ACT were perceived as relevant. The instrument's relevance as a tool to measure contextual factors that influence the implementation of evidence based nursing can also be considered to be determined. By modifying the content in the questionnaire in accordance with what appeared in this survey and to implement yet another test, the instrument should be considered to be relevant for use within Swedish municipality care of the elderly. ACT can be used both as a tool in the work on improvement of clinical practice and as a tool for further research about implementation of evidence based nursing.

Translating and testing the Alberta Context Tool for use among nurses in Swedish elder care

Background. There is emerging evidence that context is important for successful transfer of research knowledge into health care practice. The Alberta Context Tool (ACT) is a Canadian developed research-based instrument that assesses 10 modifiable concepts of organizational context considered important for health care professionals’ use of evidence. Swedish and Canadian health care have similarities in terms of organisational and professional aspects, suggesting that the ACT could be used for measuring context in Sweden. This paper reports on the translation of the ACT to Swedish and a testing of preliminary aspects of its validity, acceptability and reliability in Swedish elder care. Methods. The ACT was translated into Swedish and back-translated into English before being pilot tested in ten elder care facilities for response processes validity, acceptability and reliability (Cronbach’s alpha). Subsequently, further modification was performed. Results. In the pilot test, the nurses found the questions easy to respond to (52%) and relevant (65%), yet the questions’ clarity were mainly considered ‘neither clear nor unclear’ (52%). Missing data varied between 0 (0%) and 19 (12%) per item, the most common being 1 missing case per item (15 items). Internal consistency (Cronbach’s Alpha > .70) was reached for 5 out of 8 contextual concepts. Translation and back translation identified 21 linguistic- and semantic related issues and 3 context related deviations, resolved by developers and translators. Conclusion. Modifying an instrument is a detailed process, requiring time and consideration of the linguistic and semantic aspects of the instrument, and understanding of the context where the instrument was developed and where it is to be applied. A team, including the instrument’s developers, translators, and researchers is necessary to ensure a valid translation. This study suggests preliminary validity, reliability and acceptability evidence for the ACT when used with nurses in Swedish elder care.

The First Provenance Challenge

The first Provenance Challenge was set up in order to provide a forum for the community to understand the capabilities of different provenance systems and the expressiveness of their provenance representations. To this end, a Functional Magnetic Resonance Imaging workflow was defined, which participants had to either simulate or run in order to produce some provenance representation, from which a set of identified queries had to be implemented and executed. Sixteen teams responded to the challenge, and submitted their inputs. In this paper, we present the challenge workflow and queries, and summarise the participants contributions.

The Open Provenance Model Core Specification (v1.1)

The Open Provenance Model is a model of provenance that is designed to meet the following requirements: (1) To allow provenance information to be exchanged between systems, by means of a compatibility layer based on a shared provenance model. (2) To allow developers to build and share tools that operate on such a provenance model. (3) To define provenance in a precise, technology-agnostic manner. (4) To support a digital representation of provenance for any 'thing', whether produced by computer systems or not. (5) To allow multiple levels of description to coexist. (6) To define a core set of rules that identify the valid inferences that can be made on provenance representation. This document contains the specification of the Open Provenance Model (v1.1) resulting from a community-effort to achieve inter-operability in the Provenance Challenge series.

Time-dependent or state-dependent pricing? : evidence from a large currency devaluation episode

Duas classes de modelos buscam explicar o padrão de ajustamento de preço das firmas: modelos tempo-dependente e estado-dependente. O objetivo deste trabalho é levantar algumas evidencias empíricas de modo a distinguir os modelos, ou seja, identificar de que maneira as firmas realmente precificam. Para isso, escolheu-se a grande desvalorização cambial de 1999 como principal ferramenta e ambiente de análise. A hipótese fundamental é que o choque cambial impacta significativamente o custo de algumas indústrias, em alguns casos induzindo-as a alterarem seus preço após o choque. A partir de uma imensa base de micro dados formada por preços que compõem o CPI, algumas estimações importantes como a probabilidade e a magnitude média das trocas foram levantadas. A magnitude é dada por uma média simples, enquanto a probabilidade é estimada pelo método da máxima verossimilhança. Os resultados indicam um comportamento de precificação similar ao proposto por modelos estado-dependente.

Photoacoustics as a tool for the diagnosis of radicular stress: Measurements in eucalyptus seedlings

In reforesting companies (cellulose industry), eucalyptus is usually cultivated in small plastic containers (50 mL). As seedlings remain for about 120 days in these containers-until transplantation-their roots become space restricted, with consequent limitations in water and nutrient absorption. These restrictions may lead to plant stress, decreasing productivity. In this work, we used the photoacoustic technique to evaluate the photosynthetic activity of Eucalyptus grandis, E. urophylla and E. urograndis seedlings subjected to this limited space availability, seeking a correlation with morphological parameters and fluorescence measurements in these seedlings. Photoacoustic, fluorescence, and morphological analysis were conducted every 15 days, from 45 to 120 days after sowing. Fluorescence and photosynthetic rate were evaluated in vivo and in situ, the latter one using the open photoacoustic technique. Data show that root dry matter diminished markedly at 90 and 120 days after sowing; this behavior showed a high correlation with the gas exchange component of the photoacoustic signal, as well as with the fluorescence ratio Fv/Fm. These results indicate that the soil volume of the container becomes insufficient for the roots after 90 days, probably leading to a nutritional deficiency in plants, which explains the decrease observed in the photosynthetic rate of seedlings. (C) 2003 American Institute of Physics.

Robust fault diagnosis in power distribution systems based on fuzzy ARTMAP neural network-aided evidence theory

Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa do Estado de São Paulo (FAPESP)

A integração do tutorial interativo TryLogic via IMS Learning Tools Interoperability: construindo uma infraestrutura para o ensino de Lógica através de estratégias de demonstração e refutação

Logic courses represent a pedagogical challenge and the recorded number of cases of failures and of discontinuity in them is often high. Amont other difficulties, students face a cognitive overload to understand logical concepts in a relevant way. On that track, computational tools for learning are resources that help both in alleviating the cognitive overload scenarios and in allowing for the practical experimenting with theoretical concepts. The present study proposes an interactive tutorial, namely the TryLogic, aimed at teaching to solve logical conjectures either by proofs or refutations. The tool was developed from the architecture of the tool TryOcaml, through support of the communication of the web interface ProofWeb in accessing the proof assistant Coq. The goals of TryLogic are: (1) presenting a set of lessons for applying heuristic strategies in solving problems set in Propositional Logic; (2) stepwise organizing the exposition of concepts related to Natural Deduction and to Propositional Semantics in sequential steps; (3) providing interactive tasks to the students. The present study also aims at: presenting our implementation of a formal system for refutation; describing the integration of our infrastructure with the Virtual Learning Environment Moodle through the IMS Learning Tools Interoperability specification; presenting the Conjecture Generator that works for the tasks involving proving and refuting; and, finally to evaluate the learning experience of Logic students through the application of the conjecture solving task associated to the use of the TryLogic