The Demand for Power Diffusion: A Case Study of the 2005 Constitutional Referendum Voting in Kenya

Recent studies on the history of economic development demonstrate that concentration of power on a monarch or a ruling coalition impedes economic growth and that institutional changes that diffuse power, though beneficial to the society in general, are opposed by some social groups. In November 2005, Kenyans rejected a proposed constitution primarily because it did not reduce the powers of the executive to any significant degree. Using data of voting patterns in the constitutional referendum and following the rational choice framework, I estimate a model of the demand for power diffusion and demonstrate that groups voting decisions depend on expected gains and likelihood of monopolizing power. The results also reveal the importance of ethnic divisions in hindering the power diffusion process, and therefore the study establishes a channel through which ethnic fragmentation impacts on economic development.

Achieving Universal Primary Education: Can Kenya Afford it?

Kenya has experienced a rapid expansion of the education system partly due to high government expenditure on education. Despite the high level of expenditure on education, primary school enrolment has been declining since early 1990s and until 2003 when gross primary school enrolment increased to 104 percent after the introduction of free primary education. However, with an estimated net primary school enrolment rate of 77 percent, the country is far from achieving universal primary education. The worrying scenario is that the allocations of resources within the education sector seems to be ineffective as the increasing expenditure on education goes to recurrent expenditure (to pay teachers salaries). Kenya's Poverty Reduction Strategy Paper (PRSP) and the Economic Recovery Strategy for wealth and Employment Creation (ERS) outlines education targets of reaching universal primary education by 2015. The Government is faced with budget constrains and therefore the available resources need to be allocated efficiently in order to realize the education targets. The paper uses Budget Negotiation Framework (BNF) to analyze the cost effective ways of resource allocation in the primary education sector to achieve universal primary education and other education targets. Budget Negotiation Framework is a tool that aims at achieving equity and efficiency in resource allocation. Results from the analysis shows that universal primary education by the year 2015 is a feasible target for Kenya. The results also show that with a more cost- effective spending of education resources - increased trained teachers, enhanced textbook supplies and subsidies targeting the poor - the country could realize higher enrolment rates than what has been achieved with free primary education.

Measuring Potential Output and Output Gap and Macroeconomic Policy: The Case of Kenya

Measuring the level of an economy.s potential output and output gap are essential in identifying a sustainable non-inflationary growth and assessing appropriate macroeconomic policies. The estimation of potential output helps to determine the pace of sustainable growth while output gap estimates provide a key benchmark against which to assess inflationary or disinflationary pressures suggesting when to tighten or ease monetary policies. These measures also help to provide a gauge in the determining the structural fiscal position of the government. This paper attempts to measure Kenya.s potential output and output gap using alternative statistical techniques and structural methods. Estimation of potential output and output gap using these techniques shows varied results. The estimated potential output growth using different methods gave a range of .2.9 to 2.4 percent for 2000 and a range of .0.8 to 4.6 for 2001. Although various methods produce varied results, they however provided a broad consensus on the over-all trend and performance of the Kenyan economy. This study found that firstly, potential output growth is declining over the recent time and secondly, the Kenyan economy is contracting in the recent years.

Institutional Infrastructure to Support 'Super Growth' in Kenya: Governance Thresholds, Reversion Rates and Economic Development

Kenya Growth Vision 2030 proposes policy and institutional reforms that make it possible for the country to achieve development status of a middle income country by 2030. This paper outlines the institutional framework necessary to achieve ÈSuper Growth,É which describes the character of growth required to meet targets stipulated in the Vision. The paper provides evidence confirming the importance of improving the quality of governance to the achievement of the Vision. The paper also demonstrates that the country is characterized by a high probability of reverting to poor governance. It is argued that, to achieve super growth, the country must attain an institutional tipping point which associates with low reversion rates to weaker institutions. The paper provides suggestions for institutional reforms that result in the achievement of an institutional tipping point and super growth.

Human Capital Externalities and Private Returns to Education in Kenya

We use micro data to analyse the effect of human capital externality on earnings and private returns to education. The earnings equations are estimated using the OLS method for a sample of full-time workers. The results show that human capital has a positive effect on earnings, indicating that an increase in education benefits all workers. However, men benefit more from women's education than the women do from men's. The effects of human capital externality on private returns to schooling are shown to vary substantially between rural and urban areas and across levels of the education system.

An assessment of the nutritional status of orphaned adolescents living in Nyanza Province, Kenya

Increasing numbers of children and adolescents are becoming vulnerable or orphaned due to the HIV/AIDS epidemic in Nyanza Province, Kenya. Research indicates food security remains a top concern for those caring for these children or adolescents. This study was a examined thinness, stunting, and perceptions about food availability in adolescents ages 10-17 years in Nyanza Province. No evidence was found suggesting orphaned adolescents experience greater amounts of stunting or thinness over non-orphaned adolescents in the province. Orphans did not perceive less available food in their households. Instead, predictors of thinness, stunting, or low perceptions of food availability included age, household facilities, perceptions of equal or unequal treatment in the household, and perceptions about the household's ability to provide them with basic needs. Findings suggest interventions aimed at decreasing malnutrition focus less on orphaned versus non-orphaned adolescents, but they should focus on adolescents made vulnerable due to lower socioeconomic status. ^

Benthic respiration and physical oceanography on two contrasting continental margins in the western Indian Ocean: the Yemen-Somali upwelling region and the margin off Kenya

During the Netherlands Indian Ocean Project (NIOP, 1992-1993) sediment community oxygen consumption (SCOC) was measured on two continental margins in the Indian Ocean with different productivity: the productive upwelling region off Yemen-Somalia and the supposedly less productive Kenyan margin, which lacks upwelling. The two margins also differ in terms of river input (Kenya) and the more severe oxygen minimum in the Arabian Sea. Simultaneously with SCOC, distributions of benthic biomass and phytodetritus were studied. Our expectation was that benthic processes in the upwelling margin of the Arabian Sea would be relatively enhanced as a result of the higher productivity. On the Kenyan margin, SCOC (range 1-36 mmol/m**2/d) showed a clear decrease with increasing water depth, and little temporal variation was detected between June and December. Highest SCOC values of this study were recorded at 50 m depth off Kenya, with a maximum of 36 mmol/m**2/d in the northernmost part. On the margin off Yemen-Somalia, SCOC was on average lower and showed little downslope variation, 1.8-5.7 mmol/m**2/d, notably during upwelling, when the zone between 70 and 1700 m was covered with low O2 water (10-50 µM). After cessation of upwelling, SCOC at 60 m depth off Yemen increased from 5.7 to 17.6 mmol/m**2/d concurrently with an increase of the near-bottom O2 concentration (from 11 to 153 µM), suggesting a close coupling between SCOC and O2 concentration. This was demonstrated in shipboard cores in which the O2 concentration in the overlying water was raised after the cores were first incubated under in situ conditions (17 µM O2). This induced an immediate and pronounced increase of SCOC. Conversely, at deeper stations permanently within the oxygen minimum zone (OMZ), SCOC showed little variation between monsoon periods. Hence, organic carbon degradation in sediments on a large part of the Yemen slope appears hampered by the oxygen deficiency of the overlying water. Macrofauna biomass and the pooled biomass of smaller organisms, estimated by the nucleic acid content of the sediment, had comparable ranges in the two areas in spite of more severe suboxic conditions in the Arabian Sea. At the Kenyan shelf, benthic fauna (macro- and meiofauna) largely followed the spatial pattern of SCOC, i.e. high values on the northern shelf-upper slope and a downslope decrease. On the Yemen-Somali margin the macrofauna distribution was more erratic. Nucleic acids displayed no clear downslope trend on either margin owing to depressed values in the OMZ, perhaps because of adverse effects of low O2 on small organisms (meiofauna and microbes). Phytodetritus distributions were different on the two margins. Whereas pigment levels decreased downslope along the Kenya margin, the upper slope off Yemen (800 m) had a distinct accumulation of mainly refractory carotenoid pigments, suggesting preservation under low 02. Because the accumulations of Corg and pigments on the Yemen slope overlap only partly, we infer a selective deposition and preservation of labile particles on the upper slope, whereas refractory material undergoes further transport downslope.

Map of Lewis-Glacier - Mt. Kenya 1983 (pdf 600 kB)

In February of 1983 a new terrestrial photogrammetric survey of Lewis Glacier (0° 9' S) has been made, from which the present topographic map has been produced in a scale of 1:5000. Simultaneously a survey of 1963 was evaluated giving a basis for computations of area and volume changes over the 20 year period: Lewis Glacier has lost 22 % of its area and 50 % of its volume. Based on maps and field observations of moraines 10 different stages were identified. Changes of area and volume can be determined for the periods after 1890, two older, undated stages are presumed to be of Little Ice Age-origin. Moderate losses from 1890 to 1920 were followed by strong, uninterrupted retreat up to present. In this respect Lewis Glacier behaves as all other equatorial glaciers that were closer examined. Compared to alpine glaciers the development was similar up to 1950. In the following years, however, the glaciers of the Alps gained mass and advanced while Lewis Glacier experienced its strongest losses from 1974 to 1983.