An algoritmh for the estimation of 3D surfaces using competitive learning

This paper addresses the estimation of object boundaries from a set of 3D points. An extension of the constrained clustering algorithm developed by Abrantes and Marques in the context of edge linking is presented. The object surface is approximated using rectangular meshes and simplex nets. Centroid-based forces are used for attracting the model nodes towards the data, using competitive learning methods. It is shown that competitive learning improves the model performance in the presence of concavities and allows to discriminate close surfaces. The proposed model is evaluated using synthetic data and medical images (MRI and ultrasound images).

Estimation of the Crustal Bulk Properties Beneath Mainland Portugal from P-Wave Teleseismic Receiver Functions

In this work, we present results from teleseismic P-wave receiver functions (PRFs) obtained in Portugal, Western Iberia. A dense seismic station deployment conducted between 2010 and 2012, in the scope of the WILAS project and covering the entire country, allowed the most spatially extensive probing on the bulk crustal seismic properties of Portugal up to date. The application of the H-kappa stacking algorithm to the PRFs enabled us to estimate the crustal thickness (H) and the average crustal ratio of the P- and S-waves velocities V (p)/V (s) (kappa) for the region. Observations of Moho conversions indicate that this interface is relatively smooth with the crustal thickness ranging between 24 and 34 km, with an average of 30 km. The highest V (p)/V (s) values are found on the Mesozoic-Cenozoic crust beneath the western and southern coastal domain of Portugal, whereas the lowest values correspond to Palaeozoic crust underlying the remaining part of the subject area. An average V (p)/V (s) is found to be 1.72, ranging 1.63-1.86 across the study area, indicating a predominantly felsic composition. Overall, we systematically observe a decrease of V (p)/V (s) with increasing crustal thickness. Taken as a whole, our results indicate a clear distinction between the geological zones of the Variscan Iberian Massif in Portugal, the overall shape of the anomalies conditioned by the shape of the Ibero-Armorican Arc, and associated Late Paleozoic suture zones, and the Meso-Cenozoic basin associated with Atlantic rifting stages. Thickened crust (30-34 km) across the studied region may be inherited from continental collision during the Paleozoic Variscan orogeny. An anomalous crustal thinning to around 28 km is observed beneath the central part of the Central Iberian Zone and the eastern part of South Portuguese Zone.

Altimeter estimation of sea surface wind stress for light to moderate winds

Aircraft altimeter and in situ measurements are used to examine relationships between altimeter backscatter and the magnitude of near-surface wind and friction velocities. Comparison of altimeter radar cross section with wind speed is made through the modified Chelton-Wentz algorithm. Improved agreement is found after correcting 10-m winds for both surface current and atmospheric stability. An altimeter friction velocity algorithm is derived based on the wind speed model and an open-ocean drag coefficient. Close agreement between altimeter- and in situ-derived friction velocities is found. For this dataset, quality of the altimeter inversion to surface friction velocity is comparable to that for adjusted winds and clearly better than the inversion to true 10-m wind speed.

Combination of Evolutionary Algorithms with Experimental Design, Traditional Optimization and Machine Learning

Evolutionary algorithms alone cannot solve optimization problems very efficiently since there are many random (not very rational) decisions in these algorithms. Combination of evolutionary algorithms and other techniques have been proven to be an efficient optimization methodology. In this talk, I will explain the basic ideas of our three algorithms along this line (1): Orthogonal genetic algorithm which treats crossover/mutation as an experimental design problem, (2) Multiobjective evolutionary algorithm based on decomposition (MOEA/D) which uses decomposition techniques from traditional mathematical programming in multiobjective optimization evolutionary algorithm, and (3) Regular model based multiobjective estimation of distribution algorithms (RM-MEDA) which uses the regular property and machine learning methods for improving multiobjective evolutionary algorithms.

SEMIPARAMETRIC METHODS IN THE ESTIMATION OF TAIL PROBABILITIES AND EXTREME QUANTILES

In quantitative risk analysis, the problem of estimating small threshold exceedance probabilities and extreme quantiles arise ubiquitously in bio-surveillance, economics, natural disaster insurance actuary, quality control schemes, etc. A useful way to make an assessment of extreme events is to estimate the probabilities of exceeding large threshold values and extreme quantiles judged by interested authorities. Such information regarding extremes serves as essential guidance to interested authorities in decision making processes. However, in such a context, data are usually skewed in nature, and the rarity of exceedance of large threshold implies large fluctuations in the distribution's upper tail, precisely where the accuracy is desired mostly. Extreme Value Theory (EVT) is a branch of statistics that characterizes the behavior of upper or lower tails of probability distributions. However, existing methods in EVT for the estimation of small threshold exceedance probabilities and extreme quantiles often lead to poor predictive performance in cases where the underlying sample is not large enough or does not contain values in the distribution's tail. In this dissertation, we shall be concerned with an out of sample semiparametric (SP) method for the estimation of small threshold probabilities and extreme quantiles. The proposed SP method for interval estimation calls for the fusion or integration of a given data sample with external computer generated independent samples. Since more data are used, real as well as artificial, under certain conditions the method produces relatively short yet reliable confidence intervals for small exceedance probabilities and extreme quantiles.

Bayesian Estimation of Small Proportions Using Binomial Group Test

Group testing has long been considered as a safe and sensible relative to one-at-a-time testing in applications where the prevalence rate p is small. In this thesis, we applied Bayes approach to estimate p using Beta-type prior distribution. First, we showed two Bayes estimators of p from prior on p derived from two different loss functions. Second, we presented two more Bayes estimators of p from prior on π according to two loss functions. We also displayed credible and HPD interval for p. In addition, we did intensive numerical studies. All results showed that the Bayes estimator was preferred over the usual maximum likelihood estimator (MLE) for small p. We also presented the optimal β for different p, m, and k.

Evolution of classifiers for pitch estimation of piano music using cartesian genetic programming

Pitch Estimation, also known as Fundamental Frequency (F0) estimation, has been a popular research topic for many years, and is still investigated nowadays. The goal of Pitch Estimation is to find the pitch or fundamental frequency of a digital recording of a speech or musical notes. It plays an important role, because it is the key to identify which notes are being played and at what time. Pitch Estimation of real instruments is a very hard task to address. Each instrument has its own physical characteristics, which reflects in different spectral characteristics. Furthermore, the recording conditions can vary from studio to studio and background noises must be considered. This dissertation presents a novel approach to the problem of Pitch Estimation, using Cartesian Genetic Programming (CGP).We take advantage of evolutionary algorithms, in particular CGP, to explore and evolve complex mathematical functions that act as classifiers. These classifiers are used to identify piano notes pitches in an audio signal. To help us with the codification of the problem, we built a highly flexible CGP Toolbox, generic enough to encode different kind of programs. The encoded evolutionary algorithm is the one known as 1 + , and we can choose the value for . The toolbox is very simple to use. Settings such as the mutation probability, number of runs and generations are configurable. The cartesian representation of CGP can take multiple forms and it is able to encode function parameters. It is prepared to handle with different type of fitness functions: minimization of f(x) and maximization of f(x) and has a useful system of callbacks. We trained 61 classifiers corresponding to 61 piano notes. A training set of audio signals was used for each of the classifiers: half were signals with the same pitch as the classifier (true positive signals) and the other half were signals with different pitches (true negative signals). F-measure was used for the fitness function. Signals with the same pitch of the classifier that were correctly identified by the classifier, count as a true positives. Signals with the same pitch of the classifier that were not correctly identified by the classifier, count as a false negatives. Signals with different pitch of the classifier that were not identified by the classifier, count as a true negatives. Signals with different pitch of the classifier that were identified by the classifier, count as a false positives. Our first approach was to evolve classifiers for identifying artifical signals, created by mathematical functions: sine, sawtooth and square waves. Our function set is basically composed by filtering operations on vectors and by arithmetic operations with constants and vectors. All the classifiers correctly identified true positive signals and did not identify true negative signals. We then moved to real audio recordings. For testing the classifiers, we picked different audio signals from the ones used during the training phase. For a first approach, the obtained results were very promising, but could be improved. We have made slight changes to our approach and the number of false positives reduced 33%, compared to the first approach. We then applied the evolved classifiers to polyphonic audio signals, and the results indicate that our approach is a good starting point for addressing the problem of Pitch Estimation.

Estimation of Convective Extreme Events over Germany based on Large Scale Parameters

Strong convective events can produce extreme precipitation, hail, lightning or gusts, potentially inducing severe socio-economic impacts. These events have a relatively small spatial extension and, in most cases, a short lifetime. In this study, a model is developed for estimating convective extreme events based on large scale conditions. It is shown that strong convective events can be characterized by a Weibull distribution of radar-based rainfall with a low shape and high scale parameter value. A radius of 90km around a station reporting a convective situation turned out to be suitable. A methodology is developed to estimate the Weibull parameters and thus the occurrence probability of convective events from large scale atmospheric instability and enhanced near-surface humidity, which are usually found on a larger scale than the convective event itself. Here, the probability for the occurrence of extreme convective events is estimated from the KO-index indicating the stability, and relative humidity at 1000hPa. Both variables are computed from ERA-Interim reanalysis. In a first version of the methodology, these two variables are applied to estimate the spatial rainfall distribution and to estimate the occurrence of a convective event. The developed method shows significant skill in estimating the occurrence of convective events as observed at synoptic stations, lightning measurements, and severe weather reports. In order to take frontal influences into account, a scheme for the detection of atmospheric fronts is implemented. While generally higher instability is found in the vicinity of fronts, the skill of this approach is largely unchanged. Additional improvements were achieved by a bias-correction and the use of ERA-Interim precipitation. The resulting estimation method is applied to the ERA-Interim period (1979-2014) to establish a ranking of estimated convective extreme events. Two strong estimated events that reveal a frontal influence are analysed in detail. As a second application, the method is applied to GCM-based decadal predictions in the period 1979-2014, which were initialized every year. It is shown that decadal predictive skill for convective event frequencies over Germany is found for the first 3-4 years after the initialization.

Estimation of the Traffic Intensity in a Piecewise-stationary Mt/Gt/1 Queue with Probing

We use a probing strategy to estimate the time dependent traffic intensity in an Mt/Gt/1 queue, where the arrival rate and the general service-time distribution change from one time interval to another, and derive statistical properties of the proposed estimator. We present a method to detect a switch from a stationary interval to another using a sequence of probes to improve the estimation. At the end, we compare our results with two estimators proposed in the literature for the M/G/1 queue.

Estimation of climatological water deficit in an experimental watershed in the brazilian cerrado.

ABSTRACT: This study aimed to estimate the probability of climatological water deficit in an experimental watershed in the Cerrado biome, located in the central plateau of Brazil. For that, it was used a time series of 31 years (1982?2012). The probable climatological water deficit was calculated by the difference between rainfall and probable reference evapotranspiration, on a decennial scale. The reference evapotranspiration (ET0) was estimated by the standard FAO-56 Penman-Monteith method. To estimate water deficit, it was used gamma distribution, time series of rainfall and reference evapotranspiration. The adherence of the estimated probabilities to the observed data was verified by the Kolmogorov-Smirnov nonparametric test, with significance level (a-0.05), which presented a good adjustment to the distribution models. It was observed a climatological water deficit, in greater or lesser intensity, between the annual decennials 2 and 32.

Bayesian Linear Regression for estimation of the Fractal Dimension of the Cerebral Cortex

The cerebral cortex presents self-similarity in a proper interval of spatial scales, a property typical of natural objects exhibiting fractal geometry. Its complexity therefore can be characterized by the value of its fractal dimension (FD). In the computation of this metric, it has usually been employed a frequentist approach to probability, with point estimator methods yielding only the optimal values of the FD. In our study, we aimed at retrieving a more complete evaluation of the FD by utilizing a Bayesian model for the linear regression analysis of the box-counting algorithm. We used T1-weighted MRI data of 86 healthy subjects (age 44.2 ± 17.1 years, mean ± standard deviation, 48% males) in order to gain insights into the confidence of our measure and investigate the relationship between mean Bayesian FD and age. Our approach yielded a stronger and significant (P < .001) correlation between mean Bayesian FD and age as compared to the previous implementation. Thus, our results make us suppose that the Bayesian FD is a more truthful estimation for the fractal dimension of the cerebral cortex compared to the frequentist FD.

Scaphoid Fracture Nonunion: Correlation Of Radiographic Imaging, Proximal Fragment Histologic Viability Evaluation, And Estimation Of Viability At Surgery: Diagnosis Of Scaphoid Pseudarthrosis.

The purpose of this study was to correlate the pre-operative imaging, vascularity of the proximal pole, and histology of the proximal pole bone of established scaphoid fracture non-union. This was a prospective non-controlled experimental study. Patients were evaluated pre-operatively for necrosis of the proximal scaphoid fragment by radiography, computed tomography (CT) and magnetic resonance imaging (MRI). Vascular status of the proximal scaphoid was determined intra-operatively, demonstrating the presence or absence of puncate bone bleeding. Samples were harvested from the proximal scaphoid fragment and sent for pathological examination. We determined the association between the imaging and intra-operative examination and histological findings. We evaluated 19 male patients diagnosed with scaphoid nonunion. CT evaluation showed no correlation to scaphoid proximal fragment necrosis. MRI showed marked low signal intensity on T1-weighted images that confirmed the histological diagnosis of necrosis in the proximal scaphoid fragment in all patients. Intra-operative assessment showed that 90% of bones had absence of intra-operative puncate bone bleeding, which was confirmed necrosis by microscopic examination. In scaphoid nonunion MRI images with marked low signal intensity on T1-weighted images and the absence of intra-operative puncate bone bleeding are strong indicatives of osteonecrosis of the proximal fragment.

Patterns of distribution and abundance of larval phosichthyidae (actinopterygii, stomiiformes) in southeastern Brazilian waters

Horizontal and vertical distribution patterns and abundance of larval phosichthyids were investigated from oblique and depth-stratified towns off Southeastern brazilian waters, from São Tomé cape (41ºW.; 22ºS.) to São Sebastião island (45ºW.; 24ºS.). The sampling was performed during two cruises (January/2002 -summer; August/2002 -winter). Overall 538 larvae of Phosichthyidae were collected during summer and 158 in the winter. Three species, Pollichthys mauli, Vinciguerria nimbaria and Ichthyioccoccus sp. occurred in the area, but Ichthyioccoccus sp. was extremely rare represented by only one specimen, caught in the oceanic region during the summer. Geographically, larval were concentrated in the oceanic region, and vertically distributed mainly between the surface and 80 m depth in the summer and winter. Larvae were more abundant during the night, performing a diel vertical migration in the water column. The results suggest that the meandering and eddies of Brazil Current play important role on the transport and distribution patterns of larval phosichthyids over the oceanic and neritic area in the Southeastern Brazil.

Patterns of distribution of the hermit crab Loxopagurus loxochelis (Moreira, 1901) (Decapoda, Diogenidae) in two coastal areas of southern Brazil

The present study determined the distribution pattern of the hermit crab Loxopagurus loxochelis by a comparison of catch, depth and environmental factors at two separate bays (Caraguatatuba and Ubatuba) of Sao Paulo State, Brazil. The influence of these parameters on the distribution of males, non- ovigerous females and ovigerous females was also evaluated. Crabs were collected monthly, over a period of one year (from July/2002 to June/2003), in seven depths, from 5 to 35 m. Abiotic factors were monitored as follows: superficial and bottom salinity (psu), superficial and bottom temperature (C), organic matter content (%) and sediment composition (%). In total, 366 hermit crabs were sampled in Caraguatatuba and 126 in Ubatuba. The highest frequency of occurrence was verified at 20 m during winter (July) in Caraguatatuba and 25 m during summer (January) in Ubatuba. The highest occurrences were recorded in the regions with bottom salinities ranging from 34 to 36 psu, bottom temperatures from 18 to 24 C and, low percentages of organic matter, gravel and mud; and large proportion of sand in the substrate. There was no significant correlation between the total frequency of organisms and the environmental factors analyzed in both regions. This evidence suggests that other variables as biotic interactions can influence the pattern of distribution of L. loxochelis in the analyzed region, which is considered the limit of the northern distribution of this species.

Estimation of hexenuronic acids and kappa number in kraft pulps of Eucalyptus globulus by Fourier transform near infrared spectroscopy and multivariate analysis

Fourier transform near infrared (FT-NIR) spectroscopy was evaluated as an analytical too[ for monitoring residual Lignin, kappa number and hexenuronic acids (HexA) content in kraft pulps of Eucalyptus globulus. Sets of pulp samples were prepared under different cooking conditions to obtain a wide range of compound concentrations that were characterised by conventional wet chemistry analytical methods. The sample group was also analysed using FT-NIR spectroscopy in order to establish prediction models for the pulp characteristics. Several models were applied to correlate chemical composition in samples with the NIR spectral data by means of PCR or PLS algorithms. Calibration curves were built by using all the spectral data or selected regions. Best calibration models for the quantification of lignin, kappa and HexA were proposed presenting R-2 values of 0.99. Calibration models were used to predict pulp titers of 20 external samples in a validation set. The lignin concentration and kappa number in the range of 1.4-18% and 8-62, respectively, were predicted fairly accurately (standard error of prediction, SEP 1.1% for lignin and 2.9 for kappa). The HexA concentration (range of 5-71 mmol kg(-1) pulp) was more difficult to predict and the SEP was 7.0 mmol kg(-1) pulp in a model of HexA quantified by an ultraviolet (UV) technique and 6.1 mmol kg(-1) pulp in a model of HexA quantified by anion-exchange chromatography (AEC). Even in wet chemical procedures used for HexA determination, there is no good agreement between methods as demonstrated by the UV and AEC methods described in the present work. NIR spectroscopy did provide a rapid estimate of HexA content in kraft pulps prepared in routine cooking experiments.