Climate change projections and selected impacts for Vietnam

In September 2013, the 5th Assessment Report (5AR) of the International Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) has been released. Taking the 5AR cli-mate change scenarios into account, the World Bank published an earli-er report on climate change and its impacts on selected hot spot re-gions, including Southeast Asia. Currently, dynamical and statistical-dynamical downscaling efforts are underway to obtain higher resolution and more robust regional climate change projections for tropical South-east Asia, including Vietnam. Such initiatives are formalized under the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) Coordinated Regional Dynamic Downscaling Experiment (CORDEX) East Asia and Southeast Asia and also take place in climate change impact projects such as the joint Vietnam-ese-German project “Environmental and Water Protection Technologies of Coastal Zones in Vietnam (EWATEC-COAST)”. In this contribution, the lat-est assessments for changes in temperature, precipitation, sea level, and tropical cyclones (TCs) under the 5AR Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) scenarios 4.5 and 8.5 are reviewed. Special emphasis is put on changes in extreme events like heat waves and/or heavy precipita-tion. A regional focus is Vietnam south of 16°N. A continued increase in mean near surface temperature is projected, reaching up to 5°C at the end of this century in northern Vietnam un-der the high greenhouse-gas forcing scenario RCP8.5. Overall, project-ed changes in annual precipitation are small, but there is a tendency of more rainfall in the boreal winter dry season. Unprecedented heat waves and an increase in extreme precipitation events are projected by both global and regional climate models. Globally, TCs are projected to decrease in number, but an increase in intensity of peak winds and rain-fall in the inner core region is estimated. Though an assessment of changes in land-falling frequency in Vietnam is uncertain due to difficul-ties in assessing changes in TC tracks, some work indicates a reduction in the number of land-falling TCs in Vietnam. Sea level may rise by 75-100 cm until the end of the century with the Vietnamese coastline experienc-ing 10-15% higher rise than on global average. Given the large rice and aquaculture production in the Mekong and Red River Deltas, that are both prone to TC-related storm surges and flooding, this poses a challenge to foodsecurity and protection of coastal population and assets.

Perceived environmental aesthetics and convenience and company are associated with walking for exercise among Australian adults

Background: This study aimed to investigate relationships between environmental aesthetics, convenience, and walking companions and walking for exercise or recreation and to investigate differences in these relationships by sex and by reported physical and mental health.

Methods: Analyses of cross-sectional self-report data from a statewide population survey of 3,392 Australian adults were used.

Results: Men and women reporting a less aesthetically pleasing or less convenient environment were less likely to report walking for exercise or recreation in the past 2 weeks. Those respondents, particularly women, reporting no company or pet to walk with were also less likely to walk for exercise or recreation. Associations with environmental and social influences were observed for men and women reporting both good and poor physical and mental health.

Conclusions: Perceived environmental aesthetics and convenience and walking companions are important correlates of walking for exercise among urban Australians. Acknowledging the cross-sectional nature of these data, findings support a case for evaluation of environmental policies to promote physical activity.

Decades of research efforts to link economic and environmental performance: still data in search of a theory?

With the proliferation of social investment vehicles, stakeholders, particularly investors, are increasingly aware of the relationship between economic, social and environmental performance, and disclosure to external parties. This is particularly evident in The Securities and Exchange Commission's Environmental Disclosure Rules. The thesis of this paper is that, after three decades of academic and professional research efforts, there are still no firm proactive guidelines to firmly link the financial performance with environmental and social performance. The purpose of this paper is to revisit empirical research efforts spanning three decades in order to delineate potential links that may assist in systematic, comparable reporting

Sustainability: meaning and measurement with application to agriculture

Sustainability refers to having the ability to meet present needs without impacting on future generations to meet their needs. It incorporates social, economic and environmental aspects, and as a measure of sustainability, a range of sustainability indicators at the economy, regional, and individual level, have been suggested. However, given the complex and multidisciplinary nature of the concept, an interdisciplinary approach is necessary. Sustainability is not something that is easily measurable, and the aim of this paper is to present a conceptual framework for quantifying sustainability on the basis of social economic efficiency. According to neoclassical economic theory, economic activity will only be sustained by the private sector as long as it is profitable. However, private economic decisions do not always ensure long-term sustainability of environmental resources or production. The approach suggested here is to derive a measure of social economic efficiency as a measure of sustainability. For dairy farmers, increased productivity has been emphasized, while recognizing the need to reduce greenhouse emissions, pests and disease, nutrient run-off into the environment and degradation of the soil structure. By incorporating environmental and economic impacts, a fuller measure of efficiency, social economic efficiency, and sustainability of the farming practice can be developed.

The welfare economics of measuring sustainability: a new approach based on social choice theory and systems analysis

This paper presents a new measure of sustainability within a welfare economics framework. Gross domestic product (GDP) can be used as an indicator of sustainability if the GDP estimates are undertaken within a cost-benefit analysis framework based on social choice perspectives. Sustainability is dependent on a healthy and functioning socio-economic and environmental (SEE) system. Economic development can damage the SEE system through resource degradation, over-harvesting and pollution. This paper addresses the tensions between economic development and sustainability by undertaking a number of SEE-based adjustments to GDP based on social choice perspectives in order to measure sustainability. These adjustments include the environmental and social costs caused by economic development such as water pollution, the depletion of non-renewable resources, and deforestation. Thailand is used as a case study for a 25 year period (1975-1999). The results show a divergence in terms of GDP per capita and the SEE-adjusted GDP per capita figure. The paper concludes that, with increasing environmental and social costs of economic development, pursuing such extreme high growth objectives without due environmental and social considerations can threaten present social welfare and future sustainability. Copyright © 2005 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd and ERP Environment.

Strategic review of enhancements and culture-based fisheries

Enhancements are interventions in the life cycle of common-pool aquatic resources. Enhancement technologies include culture-based fisheries, habitat modifications, fertilization, feeding and elimination of predators/competitors. Enhancements are estimated to yield about two million mt per year, mostly from culture-based fisheries in fresh waters where they account for some 20 percent of capture, or 10 percent of combined capture and culture production. Marine enhancements are still at an experimental stage, but some have reached commercial production. Enhancements use limited external feed and energy inputs, and can provide very high returns for labour and capital input. Moreover, enhancement initiatives can facilitate institutional change and a more active management of aquatic resources, leading to increased productivity, conservation and wider social benefits. Enhancements may help to maintain population abundance, community structure and ecosystem functioning in the face of heavy exploitation and/or environmental degradation. Negative environmental impacts may arise from ecological and genetic interactions between enhanced and wild stocks. Many enhancements have not realised their full potential because of a failure to address specific institutional, technological, management and research requirements emanating from two key characteristics. Firstly, enhancement involves investment in common-pool resources and can only be sustained under institutional arrangements that allow regulation of use and a flow of benefits to those who bear the costs of enhancement. Secondly, interventions are limited to certain aspects of the life cycle of stocks, and outcomes are strongly dependent on natural conditions beyond management control. Hence, management must be adapted to local conditions to be effective, and certain conditions may preclude successful enhancement altogether. Governments have a major role to play in facilitating enhancement initiatives through the establishment of conducive institutional arrangements, appropriate research support, and the management of environmental and other impacts on and from enhancements.

Bio-economical and ethical impacts of alien finfish culture in European inland waters

Since 1989, and in comparison to the global trend, inland aquaculture production of European finfish has declined. To date, the yearly European freshwater aquaculture production is 371,727 tons, valued at over US$1 billion. Indigenous species accounted for less than one-third of the production, whereas alien species (a species that has been moved beyond its natural range of distribution) accounts for the remainder. However, in general, indigenous species command a higher market price. Currently, food quality and food safety are leading concerns of consumers, and European consumers are also becoming alert to environmentally detrimental practices. Therefore, to aim at economic sustainability, the sector needs to satisfy consumer expectations of environmentally friendly practices. It is believed that farming alien finfish species can threaten local biodiversity through escapes, and this represents a current environmental concern relative to aquaculture. In this context, an attempt is made in this paper to understand and quantify the impacts of alien finfish cultivation in European inland waters, and to suggest remedial measures.

Are perceptions of the physical and social environment associated with mothers' walking for leisure and for transport? A longitudinal study

Objective
The role local neighbourhood environments play in influencing purpose-specific walking behaviors has not been well-explored in prospective studies. This study aimed to cross-sectionally and prospectively examine whether local physical and social environments were associated with mothers' walking for leisure and for transport.

Methods
In 2004, 357 mothers from Melbourne, Australia, provided information on their local physical and social neighbourhood environments, and in 2004 and 2006 reported weekly time spent walking for leisure and for transport. Environmental predictors of high levels of walking and increases in walking were examined using log binomial regression.

Results
Public transport accessibility and trusting many people in the neighbourhood were predictive of increases in walking for leisure, while connectivity, pedestrian crossings, a local traffic speed were predictive of increases in transport-related walking. Satisfaction with local facilities was associated with increasing both types of walking, and the social environment was important for maintaining high levels of both leisure- and transport-related walking.

Conclusion
The findings provide evidence of a longitudinal relationship between physical and social environments and walking behaviors amongst mothers. Enhancing satisfaction with local facilities and giving consideration to ‘walkability’, safety and public transport accessibility during environment planning processes may help mothers to increase walking.

Contact with nature and children's mental, emotional, and social health

This research investigated the benefits of children's contact with nature as perceived by adult educators. It was found that contact with nature is perceived to: increase self-confidence and self-esteem; provide opportunities to experience mystery, privacy, and sensory engagement; connect children with school; and accommodate different learning styles and abilities.

Inner city high-rise living : a catalyst for social exclusion and social connectedness?

This paper discusses the concepts ‘social exclusion’ and ‘social connectedness’ which may result from living in inner city high-rise housing. Using data from the ‘Living High But Healthy’ study completed in 2006, the author explores the health and wellbeing impacts of high-rise living. The paper begins with a review of literature on high-rise living, social exclusion and social connectedness. This is followed by discussion of the ‘Living High But Healthy’ study findings in relation to social exclusion and social connectedness and lastly, the notion that inner city high-rise living may be a catalyst for these concepts is explored.

Proposal of a tiered conceptual framework for sustainable design and planning of large-scale development projects in the metropolitan context

The overwhelming threat posed by climate change means that increasingly, emphasis is being placed on the need to integrate sustainability considerations into all areas of policy making, planning and development. Actors in the built environment are progressively considering environmental and social issues alongside functional and economic aspects of development projects. However, to date in Australia and internationally, there have been few practical examples of integrated applications of sustainability principles in the built environment across design, planning, construction, operation and de-construction phases. Notable initiatives have tended to be narrow in scope, focusing on either mitigation or adaptation strategies. Integrated considerations of impacts from component and building scales to city and regional scales and across physical and socio-economic dimensions are urgently needed, particularly for long-life major infrastructure projects. This paper proposes a conceptual framework based on the principal that early intervention is the most cost-effective and efficient means of implementing effective strategies for mitigation and adaptation. A Strategic Environmental Assessment (SEA) approach is forwarded as an umbrella analytical framework, assembled from analytical methods which are strategically ‘tiered’ to inform different stages of the planning and decision-making process. Techniques such as Ecological footprint, Life cycle costing and Risk analysis may be applied to integrate sustainable design, construction and planning considerations which address both mitigation and adaptation dimensions, results of each analysis ultimately being collated into the overall SEA. This integrated conceptual framework for sustainable, resilient and cost-effective infrastructure development will in practice be applied to assess selected case-studies of major development projects in Australia, focusing on the area of stadium development. Practically applied and timed accordingly, the framework would allow assessments to be targeted towards appropriate decision making levels and enable better decision-making and more efficient resource allocation for major infrastructure development projects.

Evaluating the travel, physical activity and carbon impacts of a 'natural experiment' in the provision of new walking and cycling infrastructure : methods for the core module of the iConnect study

Introduction Improving infrastructure to support walking and cycling is often regarded as fundamental to encouraging their widespread uptake. However, there is little evidence that specific provision of this kind has led to a significant increase in walking or cycling in practice, let alone wider impacts such as changes in overall physical activity or carbon emissions. Connect2 is a major new project that aims to promote walking and cycling in the UK by improving local pedestrian and cycle routes. It therefore provides a useful opportunity to contribute new evidence in this field by means of a natural experimental study.

Methods and analysis iConnect is an independent study that aims to integrate the perspectives of public health and transport research on the measurement and evaluation of the travel, physical activity and carbon impacts of the Connect2 programme. In this paper, the authors report the study design and methods for the iConnect core module. This comprised a cohort study of residents living within 5 km of three case study Connect2 projects in Cardiff, Kenilworth and Southampton, supported by a programme of qualitative interviews with key informants about the projects. Participants were asked to complete postal questionnaires, repeated before and after the opening of the new infrastructure, which collected data on demographic and socioeconomic characteristics, travel, car fuel purchasing and physical activity, and potential psychosocial and environmental correlates and mediators of those behaviours. In the absence of suitable no-intervention control groups, the study design drew on heterogeneity in exposure both within and between case study samples to provide for a counterfactual.

Ethics and dissemination The study was approved by the University of Southampton Research Ethics Committee. The findings will be disseminated through academic presentations, peer-reviewed publications and the study website (http://www.iconnect.ac.uk) and by means of a national seminar at the end of the study.

Relationship between cognition, achievement,and social competence in children

Children who struggle to learn at school typically have poorer social competence. This thesis showed that poor language skills also negatively impacts on social competence. Furthermore, cognitive abilities such as attention and memory were shown to disrupt children’s ability to learn, which in turn is related to poor social competence

Udderly fantastic online communities : how organisations are using online social networking for community relations and issues management

From empowering consumers and citizens, through to sharing party photographs and organising social events, social networking has transformed the way most people communicate. The Australian dairy industry, wracked by ten years of drought and increasing numbers of activists questioning its environmental and social costs, has established a closed-wall social networking site, called Udderly Fantastic, exclusively for internal stakeholders such as farmers and dairy manufacturers. This case study demonstrates that organisations wanting to engage their stakeholders in an open and transparent way can use social networking as a way of providing information and, importantly, a platform for dialogue in which issues can be raised and discussed.

Multilevel analysis of the Be Active Eat Well intervention : environmental and behavioural influences on reductions in child obesity risk

Background: The Be Active Eat Well (BAEW) community-based child obesity prevention intervention was successful in modestly reducing unhealthy weight gain in primary school children using a multi-strategy and multi-setting approach.

Objective: To (1) examine the relationship between changes in obesity-related individual, household and school factors and changes in standardised child body mass index (zBMI), and (2) determine if the BAEW intervention moderated these effects.

Methods: The longitudinal relationships between changes in individual, household and school variables and changes in zBMI were explored using multilevel modelling, with measurement time (baseline and follow-up) at level 1, individual (behaviours, n=1812) at level 2 and households (n=1318) and schools (n=18) as higher levels (environments). The effect of the intervention was tested while controlling for child age, gender and maternal education level.

Results: This study confirmed that the BAEW intervention lowered child zBMI compared with the comparison group (−0.085 units, P=0.03). The variation between household environments was found to be a large contributor to the percentage of unexplained change in child zBMI (59%), compared with contributions from the individual (23%) and school levels (1%). Across both groups, screen time (P=0.03), sweet drink consumption (P=0.03) and lack of household rules for television (TV) viewing (P=0.05) were associated with increased zBMI, whereas there was a non-significant association with the frequency the TV was on during evening meals (P=0.07). The moderating effect of the intervention was only evident for the relationship between the frequency of TV on during meals and zBMI, however, this effect was modest (P=0.04).

Conclusions: The development of childhood obesity involves multi-factorial and multi-level influences, some of which are amenable to change. Obesity prevention strategies should not only target individual behaviours but also the household environment and family practices. Although zBMI changes were modest, these findings are encouraging as small reductions can have population level impacts on childhood obesity levels.